"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
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US Mint Temporarily Suspends Sales of 1/10 ounce Gold Coins
Newswires today are reporting that the US Mint has temporarily suspended its sales of 1/10 ounce gold coins due to the surge in demand. Apparently there are insufficient supplies of the coins to meet current demand. A spokesperson for the mint says that they will resume sales as soon as the Mint can strike enough of the coins to replenish inventories.
Next to the one ounce coin coins, the 1/10 ounce gold coins are the second most popular coins bought by those desiring to own gold.
Just found an interesting article by clive maund. You may want to look at the very last chart. http://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2013-04-22
ReplyDeleteDan,
ReplyDeleteI saw a post on Kitco reminding that all coin purchases represented a mere 8% of demand in gold and therefore, even if increasing, were not enough to counter the flood of sales orders in the market.
Let's see...
Following your reminder that trading is first of all following prices, adapting to the volatility and trying to get good risk/reward ratios when one can, rather than anticipating long-term price targets, I'm posting two charts as a reminder of what happened in the 1980s and where we are today.
First chart shows that in the 1980s, gold increased from 150 to 925 $ before blowing up, all the way down to the 78% Fibo retracement! Look how precise the fibos are (quarterly candles) for the bounces / supports towards the 50% for example.
http://s23.postimg.org/otbwdeg6z/glt_q.jpg
Now let's take Nowadays, and use the Fibos again...tada, magic!! The 23% and 38% Fibos are clearly there!!
http://s13.postimg.org/4587deunb/gld_m.jpg
Point of this is : the last 10 year's recent gold rallye saw gold rise from 300 $ to 1900 $.
Sounds familiar?
This is exacly TWICE the prices of the 1980s rallye!
I'm not saying we are going all the way down to 78% fibo :)
BUT I'm saying :
- Watch out what prices are telling you
- Watch where monthly prices will be closing
- a close of the month Under the median of the monthly pitchform may put a target of next 50% Fibo at 1150 $ in summer.
- summer is traditionally not very good for PMs because Asia is sleeping in terms of physical demand.
- summer coincides with the mlh inf of pitchfrok, plus 50% Fibo, plus another long term potential support on my chart.
In conclusion : be careful, long-term bulls believers of gold bull market. Sinclair may be right on the long-term and about the end game (and I think he is). Which is why some of your assets should be out of the system, and definitely owned physically like gold real shiny coins and bars.
BUT this is compatible with covering your positions in physical if you see that the Fibo 1320 $ is giving way.
MOST physical gold investors didn't panic during last mini krach. But if they are physical investors, it means already that they were careful enough to do so, which means most of them bought before 2011! Which means that most of them are not Under water yet with their position.
IF the correction worsens, I guess their nerves will be challenged a very hard way.
If emotions take control, they could sell their positions, whatever the Fundamentals are, whatever Sinclair will say.
I think most bulls in gold bought phyz for safety, not for a roller coster of volatility.
I'll make my décisions based on those Fibo levels and the pitchfork.
Take care all,
eat this...
ReplyDelete"The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed
exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.68 percent to
1,097.19 tonnes on Tuesday from 1,104.71 tonnes on Monday. The current holdings are at multi-year lows."
...
""While some physical buyers have been flocking to gold in
light of lower prices, ETF investors seem to be heading the
other way and cutting their exposure," said Edward Meir, a
metals analyst at futures brokerage INTL FCStone."
from : http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/24/markets-precious-idUSL3N0DB3UL20130424
The bearish scenario is a continuous bleeding out of the major ETF such as GLD for still a while...
Dan,
ReplyDeleteI know you are a big fan of the HFT's as their ability to REASON. Here is an article I know you would like. Did you know Santelli? Seems like the only voice of reason on CNBC.
Traders at all time low now in NYC. 1/3 gone in last 10 years. Now as a small business loan guy, I do not feel that bad. We all are starting to understand the decimation of this West to East migration of quite a bit of America "hey day".
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/work-wall-street-heres-why-you-should-hate-hft-and-santellis-take-vacuum-tubes