"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Gold Knocked Back Down into Support

Another coordinated hit on the gold price in today's session. Goldman Sachs issues a "short gold" advisory on the same day that news breaks about Cypress having to sell gold to raise funds for its bailout requirement.

What is so perverse about all this is that I do not believe there is a thinking person on this planet that does not attribute this bubble rally in the US equity market to the Fed's massive doses of QE. Yet, when the FOMC minutes are released (that is another story all in itself as they were released yesterday) the stock market utterly ignores the comments from those on the FOMC who believe that the bond buying program can begin to be wind down later this year. Yet, those same comments, again, completely ignored by the equity markets, are supposed to be the catalyst for a huge smashing of the gold price. Come on already! Do they really believe that people are that damned stupid?

Show me one person who believes that were the Fed to pull the plug on the QE program that it would have NO EFFECT whatsoever on the equity markets and I will show you a talking rock! Yet somehow, miraculously, the stock market can completely ignore any talk of an early cessation of QE while gold is mauled! Yeah....

I suspect that Goldman needs to get long gold for what they see coming down the road and has to get the hedge funds and the public selling it so that they can take the other side of the trade for themselves.

I will send up a chart later on today as I am pressed for time right now but gold is back down into the zone that has attracted strong Central Bank buying previously.

Also, I should note here that silver held up fairly well today considering the mauling that gold received. It was only down 33 cents or so. Not bad given a $30 plunge in the price of the yellow metal....

The VIX is falling off the edge of the world into the abyss. There is no fear anywhere. Total and complete complacency rules.


  1. Written from my heart.
    It's disgusting.

    ps: did you read the HUGE story of today? The Fed leaked the FOMC minutes early - but as usual, the media spin hides the REAL scandal:
    While mainstream meadia trumpets that it was leaked a few hours early today, the Cabal banks received it already yesterday! And no one informed the Fed about the leak.

    And why should the Fed send emails, if it is published on theit website anyway?

    Therefore i guess this was an action of a whistleblower who sent it early to the politicians, to show, who else is receiving the data already a day before.

    A system, rotten to the core. And no cure in sight. We only can watch how the western culture is decomposing.

  2. Yes...that's why T.A is so important now.
    Nothing else matters but price.
    Of course, I have a core physical position which I don't touch, no matter what. It's my safety, my protection against anything that may happen, a huge krach or whatever.
    But talking about paper trading here, one must watch prices, no matter what their convictions are about what the market should do to their opinion.
    Anyhow, it seems that Lagarde and Goldman Sachs know what is an Andrew's Fork.


    It seems the Bearish Lords of Gold have decided to keep gold within the purple fork. Both mlh sup of red and purple forks always stopped the advance of prices. Look out when you get close to them. Which means they want to maintain a bearish trend.

    I think they want to strike the obvious long term support zone around 1540 area.
    Below that, mlh inf of purple fork shows 1500 $.
    I imagine lots of stop losses are located directly Under the 1540 area.

    What surprises me is why is Jim Sinclair taking such a risk by committing himself on a daily basis about the end of this correction since march. He is again predicting that the lows have been made. What if he is wrong, even for a short time, even for a few pips?
    These Bearish Guys are strong enough that they can manipulate a gold market of 30 $ down for a few hours if they wish to, no matter what happens on the physical scene imho.
    Proving Jim wrong here would probably add up to the disappointment of the "gold bugs" community and fuel the bearish cascade through 1535.
    I wouldn't be surprised if we went to test the 1480-1500 $ area at some point.
    Looking at this 1535 support is like looking into a cliff. Watching down is enough to attract you there.
    On a trading point of view, I'm extremely careful as long as the mlh sup or the ma20 daily are not broken.
    I'm impressed Sinclair is making such a short term commitment regarding prices.

  3. I keep hearing angry screams of manipulation to the short side!

    The Jim Sinclairs of this world are equally to blame for manipulation. Manipulation that is for the upside.

    If I invested in gold or the miners after every passionate and emotional plea from him to rally the masses into buying and holding gold all the way down from $1900 i would have 1 million dollars. 1 million dollars from a 2 million dollar investment.

    One day when gold eventually turns up and no one knows when this is with certainty, the gold wizards and soothsayers who have been calling bottoms and to buy the dip all the way from the $1900 will suddenly say 'See i told you it had bottomed. This time i meant it'.

    Of course it seems for it to indeed finally bottom may require the original crowd who followed the newsletters all the way down from the golden summit to have finally given up in disgust and set their email clients to send those newsletters to the spam folder.

    The only way i see to get the edge is to be cold hearted and just trade off the technicals. ZERO emotion.

    Great site and analysis Mr Norcini. I respect your approach.

  4. "Show me one person who believes that were the Fed to pull the plug on the QE program that it would have NO EFFECT whatsoever on the equity markets and I will show you a talking rock! Yet somehow, miraculously, the stock market can completely ignore any talk of an early cessation of QE while gold is mauled!"

    You are defacto accusing the stock market of being a talking rock.

  5. Great commentary Dan.
    A desert casino's mirage of deep financial luxuriating in VIXens, naked bonds, credit bubble baths, debt infusions, statistical massages, gross domestic productivity, et al, is losing steam to the high pressure jetstreams of systemic, sociopolitical or self-reinforcing reality checks.


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