We have seen several headwinds blowing against gold over the last couple of months. These have been noted here and include the rush into equities, the general abandonment of the commodity sector by some large players, the notion that the worst for the global economy is behind us, etc.... At to this list the strength in the US Dollar.
It should be noted here that a great deal of this strength has been at the expense of the Japanese Yen, which has seen a strong move lower although it has temporarily stabilized. It has also been due to general weakness in the British Pound, which as you know by now, is in association with conditions that led to last Friday's downgrade of the UK credit rating.
Since Monday of this week however, the Dollar has gained at the expense of the Euro, which has been on the whipping end of the unwind of large one way carry-trade related bets. As the Euro sinks over fears of the growth potential in Euroland and a rise in concern over the austerity programs that were devised so as to alleviate bond market fears over there, the Dollar has now managed to break out to the upside from a 5 month long consolidation pattern.
The USDX has had trouble clearing the 81.50 level. It did manage to do that last week but only barely. This week however, especially when the results of the Italian election were made known, it added some decent followthrough to the upside and looks as if wants to go higher.
There is the potential for a wild swing however depending on what shape or form this upcoming sequestration thing takes tomorrow. If however, the USDX closes out the week above 82, odds favor a run higher towards 82.70-82.75.
The currency markets are incredibly volatile right now as risk trades are unwound and then reinstated. It is quite difficult attempting to read some of these markets due to the big price swings and somewhat erratic behavior of late. REgardless, a higher Dollar will keep some pressure on the gold price. Should the Dollar exhibit a negative response to the sequestration, look for gold to bounce again as it has entered a support region on its price chart.
"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
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