“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Monday, February 25, 2013

Oh Bennie Boy, the Pipes, the Pipes are Calling

WOW! a bit of news out of Italy and it's ABANDON SHIP for stock market bulls. This coming a mere two days later after I posted my little piece about stock traders ignoring a downside technical reversal signal on the charts. Talk about a rapid shift in sentiment since then!

That news from Italy was enough to put Euroland back on the radar screen of traders after it had been completely erased since the Europeans began their bond buyiong program. The fear is that Italy will be gridlocked due to the election results that have been coming in and render it unable to comply with requirements for these continued bond purchases. The of course brings the stability of the Euro back into question.

That currency was spanked quite rudely today as the Italian news hit the markets. What aggravated the move lower in the Euro was a huge short squeeze in the Yen, that hit the Euro_Yen cross further exaggerating the Yen's move higher and putting additional downside on the Euro-Dollar cross.

The Euro and Yen have both been a sort of proxy for the risk trade with the Euro moving higher and the Yen moving lower as traders felt comfortable assuming risk once again. With risk aversion today's mood, those two currencies reversed their recent trends.

A lot therefore depends on what Chairman Bernanke is going to say when he gets before the Congress tomorrow. Will he whisper sweet nothings to the ears of equity bulls or will he strike a more cautious note? I for one will be greatly suprised if he says anything more about an early cessation to QE. He must certainly know that his words will be parsed with a fine-toothed comb.

The S&P 500 dropped so sharply on such large volume, that it sent the VIX, the Volatility Index surging over 35% today. Talk about rattling the complacency cage.



The S&P will need a lot of help from the Chairman tomorrow in his testimony to prevent a further move towards the Target level I have indicated on the chart. The Directional Movement has not only indicated a halt in the strong uptrend but has generated its first sell signal since December of last year. The loss of upside momentum that had been noted finally caught up to this index today. Quite frankly, there was a very large wave of selling - quite different than what we have been accustomed to when we have seen dip buyers eager to jump right back in. They appear to have been rattled for a change and look to be waiting for a bit deeper correction before plowing back in. By the way, that Directional Index sell signal back near Mid-December of last year was quickly negated by subsequent action. I honestly have no idea what the index is going to do tomorrow - everything depends on how the market interprets Beranke's comments.




Gold showed some signs of life today as it moved up in terms of the British Pound, the Euro and of course the Dollar. I will not be too impressed with gold until I see a handle of "16" in front of this metal that remains there. That will tell us that the spike down towards support near $1550 was a temporary bottom. It is not unexpected to see the metal bounce from its first test of that critical support level; however, to convince me that this is anything more than a type of Dead Cat bounce, I want to see that "16" handle PLUS a clear upside break in the HUI. Gold has found a base of support here about $1550 but specs are still favoring trading it from the short side so we want to see how it handles tests of upside resistance.

The HUI was rather lifeless today given the nice pop higher in gold settling well off its best level of the day. That index has been a drag on the gold price for some time now so if we see it begin to lead to the upside for any reason, a great weight will have been lifted off of the actual metal.

There are several downside gaps that need to be at the very least filled, before this index will give an all clear signal. Aggressive traders can buy shares but please be sure to use sound money management strategies. Don't forget the trend is down so one buying must know that you are going against the trend. Just be careful. You can end up a HERO or you can end up a great big fat ZERO. That is not my style of trading but I realize that we have many wild-eyed specs out there who love taking reckless chances with their trading accounts.



6 comments:

  1. >Oh Bennie Boy, the Pipes, the Pipes are Calling<

    LOL!

    ReplyDelete
  2. A few thoughts. I for one am an American first and foremost. I grew up watching John Wayne, Clint Eastwood, and was educated in the 80's when Ronald Reagan was President and turned the country around. It pains me greatly to see the unprecedented money flows, controlled by GS, un precedented balance sheet growth of the Fed, and unprecendented growth in debt of the Federal Government (i.e. taxpayers). I think we have reached the point where Federal Employees are getting so much more than those that support them. The biggest fear of mine is not that there will be a revolution, but rather, there will not. I see many today that want jobs but are unable to get them, something, Thomas Jefferson, warned about. I think that we are close now, getting closer to the point, where, Pravda is morphing into the American Press.
    I will pray tonite that Italy gets at least their say. Let's see what the Pipes chime out!!!
    I think you are correct. No more talk of "austerity" and pullback, when Europe is on the verge of implosion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If these United States supports the infusion of its banking system (GS,JPM,et al) into the decision of other country's politics, then I am against it. Soverign nations demand soverign consequences, Mr. Citibank telling us that the Italians made a mistake is "pitiful".If, We as the United States (not United Nations, can understand that we need to start to once again become a sovereign nation, (get the GS boys and GE boys) out of making decisions for other countries fx markets, we can conentrate on our own problems. While the President and the major banks continue to attempt to enslave other citizens into a giant Ponzi scheme leading to a NWO ruled by G.S. Thanks but no thanks. The lira, the mark, the pound, and all other currencies can float. If Chinese want to continue to buy our dollar, thanks, but Whoever can win the war wins. Stop trying to manipulate the world through GS eyes...albeit they are salivating, but the salivation is slowly drying up. Boehner has now the ability to "just say not". Horah...Great King Obummer, what is your next move? Looks like you have to CUT your beneficiaries, or, at a minimum, have a REAL CHAT!!!!

      Delete
    2. Presidents and Congress are just figure heads for the NWO. The real power structure is cloaked and hidden. They operate with impunity. Elections have been rigged and fraudulent in the US for eons. Reagan was just another front man like Bush, Clinton and Obama for the NWO. They were all selected by the NWO.

      Delete
  3. I am hoping the gloom and doom stays much longer in the precious metals sector. This gives more time to get some more cash in order to accumulate.

    I'd be surprised we don't get down to at least 1522 before we go back up. Of course, shorts will have to drop some more payloads.

    Lot of explorations stocks (about 50%) stand a good chance of delisting in May.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "That is not my style of trading but I realize that we have many wild-eyed specs out there who love taking reckless chances with their trading accounts."
    Call it contrarian :)
    If I get on a support on a time unit (ex : daily) and the time unit below (ex : 4 hours candles) confirms it with a buy signal, then I can buy with a tight stop loss, prices go up a bit, I sell 1/3 of my position, and I put my stop loss at my initial buying price, end of the story.
    The frequency of my orders being stopped will still be high, but not too much, and the risk reward ratio will be usually excellent.
    But as you said, to be contrarian and take risks, one must before all remember that priority is cash management and preservation. Road pizzas ahead :)

    ReplyDelete

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