The Asian holiday period has closed down some of the big physical market buys that we normally see from that quarter of the globe. The result has been a lack of physical offtake which typically helps offset speculative selling over in the New York trading hours.
That has allowed bears to take gold lower after it failed to pushed past overhead resistance last week near the $1685- $1690 level. Gold is now retreating towards the bottom of its 6 week+ trading range near $1640 and below.
Bears will try to break through this support level as there are significant sell stops lurking down there that have them salivating. I would expect some Central Bank buying to emerge however should prices reach these levels. It was interesting to note a recent article detailing the extent of Russia's gold buys. Gold is certainly moving from the West to the East.
From a technical analysis standpoint, the market needs to hold support between $1640-$1630. Failure to do so will target the next level of chart support between $1620 - $1615. Below that is round number psychological support at $1600.
Bulls might be able to prevent a sharp move lower but so far they have lacked the resolve to take it up through overhead chart resistance. To get any hope of having some sort of leg higher in gold, price must clear $1700.
Silver has once again failed at $32.50. This last attempt to test that tough resistance level never made it past the $32 level for any length of time. It is now probing lower for support. If it fails to hold near $30.85, it will move back towards $30.25 - $30.10.
Weakness in the HUI is again undercutting the precious metals.
Today is a bit of a strange trading session day. The Euro is the only major currency trading higher. The other majors are moving lower. Equities are at the moment, comatose, while bonds are also lethargic. Crude oil is strongly higher pushing up towards initial overhead resistance near $97 - $97.15. Platinum is weaker but palladium is up. Copper is also weaker along with lumber. I normally would say this looks like a bit of a risk aversion day but the Euro being higher does not fit that general theme.
Let's see how the dust settles when all this is done today before making any assumptions based on a single day's worth of price action.
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