“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Continuous Commodity Index Rises - So does Silver

Silver continues it pattern of mirroring the movements of the Continuous Commodity Index ( CCI ). Today was one of those "Let's buy Commodities" Day by the hedge funds, especially in the Crude Oil and Metals markets (Palladium, Platinum, Copper). With the Dollar lower, it was the return of the "RISK ON" trade and thus recent short sellers in silver were pushed out as some fresh buying was taking place.

From a technical chart perspective, silver managed to return above broken support at the $31 level. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess. If the "Buy commodities" theme continues, silver will rise. If money flows reverse or slow into the sector, then sillver will move lower again. It really is that simple.

Volume of trades below the $31 level dried up and seemed to pick up a bit today when silver pushed above $31.25. From what I can see on this chart, if silver prices drop back below $31.10, it will probably move lower and retest yesterday's low. If it can push past $31.80 on the topside, it should revisit $32.25.

We will just have to watch.

Take a look at the following chart of the CCI and again compare it to the Silver chart. See how closely the two track each other. It is quite remarkable.



Following is a chart of the US Dollar, which is stuck in a broad coiling pattern. It is encountering selling up towards 81 and buying down towards 79. I believe that were it not for the persistent weakness in both the British Pound and the Japanese Yen, that this particular Dollar index would have already broken down to the bottom.
Those two particular currencies TOGETHER make up 1/4 or 25% of the value of the index and have both been dropping quite hard.


Here is another chart detailing the GOLD/CRUDE OIL ratio (note that I am using WTI and not Brent). As you can from the chart, gold has basically been losing ground against crude oil since late last year. This ratio is currently trading near 17 to 1. For now, inflation fears from a steadily rising crude oil price ( it is up above $97 today and looks to make a run towards $100) are not concerning the gold market.


The HUI is attempting to hang onto a key chart support level at the 400 level. As I mentioned on both the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap and in a separate post here on the site, this key mining sector index has not had a MONTHLY CLOSE BELOW the 400 level in three years. It has spiked below this level but on all occasion since then, it has managed to climb back over the 400 mark. Tomorrow is the end of the month so I am going to be paying very close attention to what it does. Bulls will not want to see this index close below 390.



Lastly, the S&P 500, the bubble that keeps on expanding, is now trading above the 1500 mark and looks as if it is now heading to 1530. It is takes that out, it is going to retest the ALL TIME HIGH. How do ya like those Federal Reserve officials and their skill at blowing one bubble after another. Are they good or what!


9 comments:

  1. How bout them Fed a roos. Conjuring up $3 trillion while the U6 number is stagnant at 14%. Wow, what a bunch of nice guys. What about the confidence number released which is reality to 80% of US. Oh, and lets just give up trying to keep jobs for Americans, lets continue to keep the borders open while we give 11million plus welfare and social security forever. Lowest confidence print in over 2 years. The fed is doing a spectacular job. As long as the MSM continues to cover for the Commadant in chief, while the Banks continue to steal from everyone, the story continues. I am looking for the civil strife to begin at any time. If it does, and the Big Gov shuts it down with aggressive tactics, then I look for the division to begin. Big Gov and Big Prez, you aint seen nothing yet. You and your kind will know the wrath of the American People like you never ever dreamed of.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Everything is just fine....

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lWh2qCUlnM

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=763-Zmz114g

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rT-OWzaKuF8

      Delete
    2. More...

      http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?section=news/local&id=8973256

      Delete
  2. I came across your blog from Google when i was searching for commodity related information, I read all the information which you wrote here. This one is really very informative blog. Even the Daily Commodity tips shared by you are very accurate. I saved this blog for future reference so that whenever i will trade then i follow the advice share by you.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ags and metals have got alot of short covering thus far ahead of fomc decision today!

    Ags all looking at 'bull flag breakouts' thus far!

    silver up 60c it's always nice when silver and soybeans run together!

    joe walsh 'life's been good to me thus farrrrrrr'

    ReplyDelete
  4. posted on the wrong section, here it is again...

    Hi Dan, have been holding gold and Silver in the Guernsey Mint, allocated, go in at last summers lows, happy with it there. Always read you analysis and comments.

    Question, I am building some longs on the lows and have noticed on the silver charts that the silver lows are getting higher, easy to see on the 6 month chart that it is a gradient upwards.

    So was expecting a drop recently to 30.35, but it turned at 30.70s

    Do you think this gradient is a sign of silver's bedrock, so to speak?

    Jerry (London)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jerry - Support on silver was down in the range from $30.30 - $30 even. It fell down to near $30.70 before rebounding yesterday and thus did not retest that support region.

      I am still waiting for it to make a conclusive close above $32.50 to signal a larger move higher. If it does, it should be able to make a run to $34. As you can see from today's action, it is almost completely dependent on the idea of further QE through all of 2013 and into 2014.

      Today, every one of the metals is higher - platinum, palladium, copper, silver and gold. The most bullish set of fundamentals is in the palladium market followed by platinum. Silver will have to prove to many skeptics that it can break out of its congestion band. If it does, it will see money coming in from the sidelines that has been watching and waiting to see if it is for real or not.

      Delete
    2. thanks Dan

      "How do ya like those Federal Reserve officials and their skill at blowing one bubble after another. Are they good or what!"

      made me chuckle, they are expert at it, practise makes perfect I suppose

      Delete
  5. It is a well executed post. I like the diagram most. It is a helpful informative post. Thanks for sharing this great information. commodity tips

    ReplyDelete

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