"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

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Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Whoops - that Didn't Last Long!

Watching the late session price action in the Emini S&P 500 is quite disconcerting if you were expecting the market to greet the Fed's announcement of another $45 BILLION/Month in Bond purchases with a hearty round of wild-eyed buying.

It sure looked like that is exactly what it did when the news came out but from that point onward, it has been SELLING and not buying which is dominating. I am not sure whether this is a classic case of "BUY THE RUMOR; SELL THE FACT" since it was no secret that the Fed was going to announce a replacement program for the expired Operation Twist and since the number had already been in the market for the previous couple of weeks.

The bulls had better hope that is all that this is (BUY THE RUMOR; SELL THE FACT) because if it is not, and IF this is the market basically yawning in the face of what amounts to a relatively open-ended HALF A TRILLION in Dollar creation over the next year from this round of QE4, then we are perhaps witnessing something that should be sending tremors into the FOMC.

Keep in mind that each successive burst of QE has had less and less of an impact on the markets and particularly on the economy in general as those rounds have made their impact. One has to wonder if this is the case.

Again, it is too early to speak too dogmatically about any bearish reaction but the bulls had better get a strong close in the S&P in tomorrow's session and especially on Friday of this week or we are going to see a good sized round of profit taking by longs emerging, especially with the end of the year fast approaching and the window to realize any paper profits under this year's lower tax rates rapidly closing.

By the way, gold and silver are both undergoing some tremendous selling pressure in Asian trading as I write this. It seems to me there is a similar reaction in the metals to the reaction in the equities on the QE 4 announcement.

When the sum of another TRILLION DOLLARS (combined QE3 and QE4) over the next year (it will last at least that long) is announced and gold cannot take out its overhead resistance, that is all the excuse that some needed to head for the exits and take what profits they had from any longs put on ahead of the FOMC release or at the very least, cut short their paper losses on a trade gone sour.

I have to wonder also if some of the same suspects that had been beating gold down in the aftermarket hours early last week are surfacing once again to try a repeat of that same stunt. We will have to see whether or not that selling is met with improved physical market takeoff.


  1. Dan just an observation that qe4 is open ended and UNsterilized. Inflationary do ya think? Also clear this is all about deficit funding...no chance of interest rate rises then.

  2. Dan, hopefully you will see this before you do the weekly metals wrapup. I'm sure you've seen this action already, but I'd like the point out the action in the emerging markets. Check out the daily charts of FXI (china), EWY (korea), EWW (mexico), INP (india) among others. Now if they are pricing in a recovery in China, or emerging markets in general, wouldn't that be a positive effect on the metals?

    The charts of palladium, platinum, and copper are all looking great on the daily charts.

    Just wondering what your thoughts were, or maybe if you'd take a look during the weekly metals wrap. Thanks


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