“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Saturday, December 1, 2012

Monthly Gold Charts




12 comments:

  1. Hi Dan,

    I have been following your blog for two months now and one thing I observed you don't make much mention of the weekly COT report.
    Is that any use of predicting future movements for a professional trader?
    Especially after this week beat down it would be interesting to see if it has any relevance to the change in short positions.

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kris - check my regular weekly radio interview on the KWN Metals Wrap. Every week we discuss the COT report.

      The reason I did not mention it this week is because it's cutoff date is the Tuesday of that trading week. It therefore did not catch any of the liquidation among the hedge fund crowd and the small traders that began on Wednesday of this week and no doubt continued on Friday.

      I will be interested in seeing it this coming Friday and will comment on it again if there is anything noteworthy

      Dan

      Delete
    2. I will check it out. Thanks Dan.

      Delete
  2. What a joke. With all the technology available, COT data should be available in real time, not a week late.

    Seems like all the COT's in the past have missed the big liquidation days, that way it is designed to keep everyone off balance and in the dark.

    ReplyDelete
  3. does any one know what the point of having the COT releases 3 days after the data is collected? what is the point of that? Dan do you know was always curious about that.

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  4. Dan I have seen these charts before. These charts indicate to me that inflation is priced into the current price of gold and that any further increases are speculative. What am I seeing wrong here? I have been investing in gold and silver assuming these metals are under priced due to the devaluation of the dollar. Is this not true?

    Terry

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree, sure looks like the "hockey stick" from the 1970s-1980 has already been repeated. How is there more to the run up and such a move, well wouldn't that just extend the asymptotic nature of the chart to unsustainable levels? What is different this time to avoid what happened in 1981?

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    2. I would really like to hear Dan's opinion on this! It would seem any appreciable upside in precious metals must come from a black swan type event. Otherwise it is just trading in the turbulence created by traders on the CME & LBMA. If gold is fairly priced (actually the charts would seem to indicate gold may be over priced) then the best one can expect is the price to rise in tandem with inflation.

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    3. What's different this time is that after the 1980s, the inflows into the gold market went mostly into paper gold, the bullion banks selling unallocated gold.

      My reasoning is that the chart pattern may repeat, with the price falling back down again, but it will be the price of unallocated/paper/non-existent gold that falls.

      Delete
  5. Am I wrong or am I seing backwardation in both Silver and Gold between December and January futures? Does that mean anything?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dan,

    I am now mystified, probably only for a day. What happened today? Gold held today, but the ^xau, ^hui, and gdxj all went down and considerably? I thought they were tired of beating up the miners, especially when their product did not break down, what happened to them? I have been a long time follower and have been able to buy after considerable drops and make money in the last year. Today, the dollar tanks .5%, gold holds and the miners again the ever living crap beat out of them. Is it that the Hedgies again are shorting the miners and going long bullion, their last gasp to get bullion or is there, a gigantic selloff awaiting gold tomorrow? Thank god I had some anti dollar money in, as well as some oil. Whoops, that will be there killer market tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. if you check the early november articles from Dan there he explained that the HUI is more influenced by the S&P500 than the metals itself (at least this time).
      check them out.

      Delete

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