In an odd piece of news today, Dow Jones is reporting that Goldman Sachs has issued a report stating that gold is "near an inflection point" which is likely to come next year and is "pointed lower after".
I find it odd because the reason that Goldman states this is because it expects an improved US economy that will supposedly blunt safe-haven demand for the metal based on its assumption that REAL interest rates will rise.
It's twelve month forecast for the price of gold is cut to $1800 with its 2014 view of $1750. That is hardly a big letdown but still it begs the question - Is this the same Goldman that just last week issued a report predicting that the Federal Reserve will be forced to implement QE4 at this month's FOMC meeting? You might recall that in that report Goldman predicted a $45 billion/month Treasury buying program to be announced by the Fed based on the fact that the US economy was still sluggish and that growth was lagging. This is of course in addition to the already announced and implemented $40 billion/month of MBS paper by the Fed.
Additionally, in that same report Goldman stated that this bond buying program would continue all the way through 2103. In the year 2014, economic conditions would improve enough that the Fed could ramp down the combined QE3 and QE4 programs to $50 billion/month which would continue into the early part of 2015. They also stated that they believed the Fed would not raise interest rates until 2016.
So which report are we to believe? Where is the rise in REAL interest rates supposed to be coming from? Is it from the Fed which they just last week predicted would not raise rates until 2016? Is it from the Fed which is expressly focusing on keeping LONG TERM interest rates low by embarking on another round of QE for the next 2 1/2 years?
I am merely stating what these two separate reports coming within a week's time frame are saying.
It is obvious that the people within Goldman who prepared the former report were not consulted with by the people who issued today's report. This is perhaps a great way of making sure that no matter what happens, your "team" got it right.
By the way, do you not find it ironic that on the same day that Goldman issues today's report, Fox Business is reporting that both Goldman and JP Morgan are considering layoffs due to the rotten business climate?
Dan,
ReplyDeleteLooks like The Doc is also asking the question...
http://www.silverdoctors.com/were-last-weeks-gold-silver-chart-glitches-telegraphing-this-weeks-cartel-raids/
So I will ask again.......
In regards to your "wack-a-mole" theory.
What about the flash crash on Tuesday PM? Gold and silver flashed lower and instantly recovered. Was that a signal Dan? Is there any connection to BM being placed in CHARGE OF Regulatory Affairs at JPM last week?
"Blythe Masters to Lead Regulatory Affairs at JPMorgan Chase
November 29, 2012 By The Doc 43 Comments
The face of JP Morgan’s alleged silver manipulation has reportedly been chosen to lead JPM’s regulatory affairs office in addition to her role as head of commodities. Apparently Mr. Dimon feels the need to ensure Bart, Gary, and the rest of the CFTC toe the line regarding the nearly 5 year old investigation of silver manipulation.
Blythe Masters, Head of Global Commodities at JPMorgan Chase, has been given the additional assignment to lead regulatory affairs for the corporate and investment bank."
Mark - I have no idea whether or not that has anything to do with the gold or silver hits. All that i can tell you is that these unusually large sell orders that took the price down were not done so as to maximize the selling price obtained for a good but rather to influence market price action.
DeleteThe problem with today's markets is that they are EASIER to manipulate than at any other time in market history in my view due to the fact that so few of the large traders are fundamentalists or disgressionary traders. These large traders, which make up the bulk of the market volume have gone over to system trading run by computer algorithms which are deliberately designed to bypass human emotion or decision making. Once a price level is violated which kicks off either the buy or sell side of these algorithms, the rest is automatic. The entity that started the action moving is then free to make a boatload of money as the mindless machines do what they were programmed to do.
Those of us who are disgressionary traders are a vanishing breed but hopefully we can take advantage of the mindless stupidity of the machines and profit accordingly.
Dan
Dan,
DeleteThank you for your reply. I also noticed, timing wise, that just prior to Judge Robert Wilkins making his ruling about position limits, which is being appealed by the CTFC, the commercial short position has grown on an almost weekly basis.
Dan,
ReplyDeleteI think a better description would be 'Goldman Sachs is talking out of both sides of their mouth'. A company that has its hands firmly throttling the world economy must know what is about. We muppets are supposed to know our place and not ask too many questions, right? :)
Rising real interest rates? Watch the whole system implode.
ReplyDeleteI hate to see what gold will be worth if QE will last through year 2103! LOL, Must be a typo, but it wouldn't suprise me if it did last through year 2103.
ReplyDeleteSuper DAve - thanks for pointing that out. I think i will leave it as it is because, like you, I think that they are going to be doing this for a long time.
DeleteThere are so many analysts and individuals at Goldman Sachs saying one thing or another at any time, that I don't think it's fair to say "Goldman Sachs said X" anymore. It's a large entity with many voices.
ReplyDeleteSoros trashed gold when he was going long, I suspect GS is doing the same thing. The GS mindset allows the terms "client" and "victim" to be used interchangeably. We'll soon see if GS is correct regarding the upcoming Fed move but I am certain that the gold forecast is all about getting their "clients" to dump anything gold.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
DeleteI am still bullish long-term on gold, but the weakness and refusal to bounce out of extreme oversold conditions is a bad sign. My cycles theory tells me $1672 (last intermediate cycle low) needs to hold or I'm going to get out and regroup.
ReplyDeletehttp://wp.me/p2CT0a-7t