“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Interest Rates Key to Silver Direction

We have said for some time now that Silver will only benefit in a period in which inflation is the main fear and not deflation. That of course implies that the bond and note markets will begin pushing rates HIGHER out of inflation fears.

With this is mind, observe the following chart comparing the price action of Silver to the Yield on the Ten Year Treasury Note. The Silver price is the lighter colored line while the black line is the yield on the ten year. Note how uncannily similar the chart patterns are of the two beginning near the month of October 2010. Why is this? Simple - if interest rates are rising the fears of a slowdown are receding. Silver tends to benefit in such an environment.

Today we were treated to a FOMC statement which hinted at a majority moving towards further action on the bond buying program should economic data warrant such. Perversely for the Fed, any attempt to engage in such a program, which by its nature is designed to PUSH DOWN longer term interest rates, will have the result of sending huge money flows into the commodity sector in general and the precious metals in particular. This will get the attention of the bond vigilantes who will then attempt to sell into the Fed buying driving rates higher instead of lower. After all, whom, besides the Fed, wants to own a bond during a time in which the main fear is inflation???


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  2. There is also a counter force going on with long bond rates when Fed action is anticipated. That is front running the Fed and buying bonds, driving rates lower, in order to flip those bonds to the Fed at a higher price. The 10 year rate dropped 10 basis points yesterday while silver was rocketing higher.

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