"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's free work will soon be available at www.traderdan.biz

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Gasoline Prices back on the Rise

Call it a "stealth rally" as it has not been garnering any headlines, but unleaded gasoline futures have quietly been on the rise for the last three weeks after bouncing off of the $2.50 level and are now pushing back towards the important 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire decline from the late March peak .

Coming at the same time that we are seeing the grains soaring higher (see my recent article on this), it is soon going to be packing a one-two punch to consumers between food and energy costs. Prices at the pump had been coming down giving some relief to drivers and the transportation industry in general but this advance threatens to pull the plug on that soon enough if price pushes past the $2.96 level on this chart.

So let's take an inventory of what we have thus far - An absolutely horrendous employment picture, rising food prices, rising gasoline prices, underwater mortgages, and an Administration that is totally clueless when it comes to understanding the factors that contribute to job creation and a growing vibrant economy. Is it any wonder that retail sales are tanking and the economy is taking a nosedive? Feeling better yet????


  1. You ask am I feeling better yet? No, not at all. Obama is clueless, Romney knows how to outsource and hide his money. The mid-west is burning up and the corn is drying up. Every time I go into a place to eat, seems the prices have gone up. I am dreading the upcoming election, not that I care who wins, it doesn't matter, just that I have to listen to all the BS till November. I am hoping, someday the PM prices finally move up out of the range that they are stuck in and I can move above water and breath. Come to think of it, suffocating is a good word to express how I feel right now.

    Sorry Dan, not feeling better yet!

    1. Romney knows how to outsource and hide his money? That's 2 for 2 in my book. He obviously knows how to run a profitable business and also realizes that it's good to diversify your assets. If you think what he's done in either case is wrong, please make your case.

    2. Hey, fair question. But why is Romney holding back on revealing his income tax for the past, say, 5 years? What do you think that will prove? Will you feel better after he does expose them, or is he hiding something? You tell me.

    3. Steve - personally I could care less about seeing Romney's tax returns. My view is that he should release that information only if the current administration stops obstructing the congressional inquiry into the Fast and Furious gun running operation that resulted in the death of one of our own border agents. Also, OBama is the most secretive president we have ever had in this nation. No one knows anything about the guy. When he releases his college transcripts and everything else he has kept sealed, then and only then can he call upon Romney to release the tax returns.

      By the way, why is it that we never hear demands from all these damned leftists to have the tax returns released from the ultra rich on that side of the aisle. What about John Kerry's tax returns? How about Pelosi who with her husband has made a damn fortune? How about Chucky Schumer and Dick Durbin?

      This is just another distraction from the obama administrations miserable failures. He has no record to run on so they have to attack Mittens.

    4. Dan, could not agree with you more. I am tired of politics, epically the "holier than though" attitude, on both sides of the aisle.

      Ms. Pelosi is from my state. For a Speaker of the House, at the time to say, lets pass the bill and read it later,(Obamacare) is pure stupidity! And with all the insider trading she has been able to do, its disgusting for her to be in office. In fact all of them.

      Like I said, I will be glad when the election is passed, only for the sake that we will not have to hear the BS on TV, print ads etc.

  2. Hi Dan,
    I just wanted to say I really enjoy your commentaries, I look forward to them every day.

  3. After about a 100 jabs down to 1550, does this market really need another jab down? How hard is it to just take it above 1600 and keep it there?

    1. Very hard during a massive financial crisis. Just look at the charts of gold and silver during the mini-crisis of 2008. All I know is that if gold fails to hold 1555, next stop is 1440 or 1308 (after a brief pushback from 1500).

      Gold needs to close at 1800+ to prove it is not a bear market.

      Anyone who thinks gold deserves to be 1600+ should be buying.

  4. Dan unfortunately those astute observations will argue against pulling the QE3 trigger, dont you think?

    The Fed does not want to fan the food & gas price fires. Especially with an election coming.

    These price increases are partly bad luck, given the bad weather in the northern hemisphere and the resurgent risk-premium in crude.

    1. J

      I agree with you that if unleaded gasoline starts to break out to the upside it will certainly make it much for difficult for the Fed to do another round of QE. My own take was that they were hoping to see the price move down towards the chart support level between $2.50 - $2.40 before they pulled the trigger on that knowing full well that it would probably move up another $1.00 before the dust settled if they went with the next round of QE.

      My guess is that they need to see the S&P 500 crater and take out some strong chart support levels before they even get serious about pushing out another batch of bond buying. With where the S&P 500 is now (personally I think the stock market is a house of cards) there is absolutely no urgency for them to do anything other than what Bernanke has been doing recently and that is just yak about the "Fed standing ready to take action if necessary, blah, blah, blah".

  5. I dont know why the gold bulls just allow the sellers to come in every day and knock gold down. How hard is it to take it above 1600 and keep it there and then on to 1680? It can rally 30 at any time, so how hard can it be to be to be above 1600?


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