"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, October 3, 2011

S&P 500 once again nearing 1100

As you can see on the following chart, other than the day on which it made a spike low and pushed sharply off the break below the 1100 level, the S&P 500 has not since managed to move back below this critical level. Each time it has threatened to do so, it has been resuscitated ( I believe thanks in part to the Exchange Stabilization Fund folks).

Today it has pushed below that 1100 level briefly but has popped up. How this thing closes today is going to be interesting. If the ESF rushes back in and props it up and prevents a CLOSE below this level, it will likely bounce, even if the bounce is small because techicians will point to the stability above the support level and how that is being reinforced. If it fails, no technician of any sound judgment is going to be able to make a bullish chart argument and the market is going to head lower first towards 1050 and possibly towards 1000 if that fails to hold.


  1. May Day, May Day. Blood in the water. Thanks Dan. You tell the truth and I appreciate it.

  2. So what does a close at 1099.23 do? Is that close enough to count, or does it get marked as a major breach?

  3. All looks lost. In the past, Dan, this has meant "Fed to the rescue" with a sharp reversal. Will it happen again?

  4. yes....print to infinity.............JMMineset.

    They need to first get everyone's blood in the water. Then, beg.............

  5. oh, QE3 is coming but its gonna take 'concensus begging' for it, alright.

    faber says another 1000 pts. down on the dow.

    i think it may be announced without an end also.

    lord knows it will have no where near the wealth effect as qe2.

    can you imagine the money velocity once all these stored dollars gets truly unleashed?.....make spring '11 commodity runup look like deflation.

    they're still along way from inflating the existing house prices/loans to former value. how can anyone doubt thats the only outcome?

    talk about living in interesting times.

  6. Hi Dan,
    You said recently, the Fed will have to choose between the dollar or the stocks.
    What if the Fed made its choice?
    What if they never do QE3?
    What if Europe doesn't print more money and doesn't bail out Greece and others?
    What if the printing press really stops printing?

    This is a real possibility, deflationary, but why not?
    And this would weigh on every asset price, gold included, would it not?
    I don't want to wear pink glasses all the time here, thinking it is a given that gold must go up on the long term.
    What do you think?
    Thanks a lot,

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