"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Gold technically weak - needs Asian buyers to become active

The following chart provides a picture of the technically weak posture brought on by today's hedge fund selling barage. Asian buying had been providing very good support on dips below $1800, particularly into the $1780 zone. That buying was overwhelmed today by the West jettisoning gold as the algorithms were all tripped into the sell mode on account of the rallying Dollar.

The result was to take gold through all of the support levels that had been holding it thus far. Both today's low and the 50 day moving average are the last line of technical chart support preventing a dip towards psychological support at the $1700 level. Below that, should it fail to hold, there is a former gap region near $1680 which should provide pretty solid support if this thing is going to stabilize. If not, it does have the potential to dip lower and move towards $1650.

On the upside, it needs to get back above $1800 to put a little doubt in the mind of the bears. A run through $1820 would see some sizeable short covering on their part.

It needs some help from the lagging HUI, which was slammed incredibly hard today.


  1. Thanks Dan.
    Talk about a bad day :(.
    I'll be sitting out till at least next week after option expiration.

  2. Dan, I would love to hear your analysis on the HUI. According to my TA work, what we have now is a 'false breakout'. The move above 610 has now been negated and we are firmly back in the consolidation range. When looking at false breakouts in the past, I have typically seen them indicate one of two possible future paths: A) The market needs another 4-8 weeks to consolidate, before the real breakout happens, or B) The false breakout indicates a market is about to sharply reverse to the downside, i.e. see the HUI break the 500 level and continue down, similar to 2008.

    Do you have any experience with these false breakouts in various markets, and how they resolve themselves? Fundamentally, of course, I am biased to say the HUI will make another attempt to breakout after some more consolidation, but to be prudent I must acknowledge the other possibility, which is that the false breakout may indicate the gold stocks are going to get caught in a overall stock market crash of some sort.

    Thanks for all your work and insight.

  3. Asian people got no money for gold bullions...all their money are in stock market/ currency...

  4. Hi Dan,
    Same question as for silver, actually...
    I see an Adam and Eve here, it seems more and more scary on a technical point of view.
    What's your sentiment on the long term trend?

    Thanks in advance,


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