"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Friday, March 18, 2011

The US Dollar continues to get No Respect

The Dollar finished a week during which huge risk trades were initially abandoned and then reinstated only to be unable to benefit in the least by any safe haven movements. Note carefully that the greenback could not even exceed the previous week's peak detailing the weakness inherent in the Dollar at this time. I find this lack of strength stunning considering all the events which transpired to contribute to so much volatility in the markets. "Safe Haven" and "US Dollar" are two phrases that seem to be more akin to Oil and Vinegar than Salt and Pepper.

Note that the Dollar experienced this chart weakness due in good part to the massive rally in the Yen this week; however, even after the coordinated G7 intervention against the Yen pushing it well off its best levels against the greenback, the Dollar could not finish the week above a significant chart support level near 76 on the the USDX.

The stage is now set for the Dollar to see further weakness which could take it down towards 75, a level last seen prior to the commencement of QE2. Failure there and it goes down towards 74.

Given the weakness in the Dollar, it is reasonable to expect that it will also be one of the currencies of choice when it comes to funding any revival of the carry trade.


  1. " "Safe Haven" and "US Dollar" are two phrases that seem to be more akin to Oil and Vinegar than Salt and Pepper. "

    Dan, you aren't saying that the Dollar is akin to Salad now...are you? Two words come to mind perhaps? "Tossed" and "Overboard"?

  2. Dan: I had thought that I had self-educated myself to the point of being relatively knowledgeable in matters of finance but the events of the past week have me completely baffled to the point of financial paralysis. I'm hoping you can explain.

    The Japanese are facing a massive re-building that is easily going to cost many tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars. In my tiny brain, I would have thought that the Japanese government would want a strong currency in order to get best value for all the copper, cement, steel, oil, etc. etc. that they most certainly must purchase to re-build. Yet, not only are they taking dramatic steps to debase their own currency they have also enlisted all of their friends to help, like some sort of alternate universe Amish "barn-burning" party. WTF!!!? I'm I clueless? Please help.

  3. Spot on Dan! The Dollar appears to be at real risk of a Waterfall type event here in the near future- particularly with the coming announcement of QE3.


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