"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Daily Gold Chart and Market Comments

A development complicating matters over in the volatile Mid East spurred additional safe haven buying in gold, dragging up silver in the process in today’s session. Iran is planning on sending two warships through the Suez Canal on their way to the Syria via the Mediterranean Sea. Needless to say, it adds yet another piece of uncertainty in a puzzle that is getting quite mixed up. There are also reports that now Libya is dealing with some population unrest.

Crude oil, both WTI and Brent moved higher on the news with Brent of course leading the charge. With fear comes gold buying as well and the buying was enough to take it into plus territory and up into resistance at $1380. It did fade however coming into the close which is a bit disappointing. A strong chart close today would have set it up for a run back towards $1400. As it stands now, the price action is registering some uncertainty or hesitation on the part of the bulls.

Gold will be keening watching the Mid East overnight for any news.

Open interest registered a sharp increase in yesterday’s run through resistance by gold. Specs came back in a big way adding a bit over 8,000 contracts in what has to be viewed as healthy for the market. For gold to punch through $1380, we are going to need another comparable surge in open interest.

Silver ran right into resistance just shy of $31 once again. For the time being that level is serving as overhead chart resistance. Once that gives way, the high near $31.25 will fall. Same thing as gold - the fade from the session's best levels is disappointing and is registering as indecision on the price chart. Downside support lies first at $30.50 on any setbacks followed by another level just above $30. If silver is going to mount another sharp leg upward, it must hold $30 on any downside test.

The HUI is maintaining its hold above 540 although it is a bit tenuous here. I would like to see it put a little more space between itself and this level especially to end this week. It has pushed past the 50 day moving average which is bullish but I think more potential longs on the sideline are waiting for it to convince them a bit further before coming back in. If the broader equities shrug off the pressure that came from the Iranian warship news, the HUI should move higher and give us that space we are looking for.

Bonds were all over the board today – first moving lower on some friendly economic news before moving up nearly half a point on the Iranian warship news. They then gave those gains back and moved towards unchanged on the day. It seems as every single market on the planet is being swamped with wild volatility.

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