Gold Shares continue to lose ground against gold itself

The gold mining shares, as evidenced by the HUI, continue to lose ground against the price of gold bullion itself. They are approaching the three year low in this ratio that was made 3 weeks ago. One would think that they would find some buying support soon for valuation reasons.

The hedge funds continue to ply that ratio spread trade which they will do until they can no longer make any profits off of it. Maybe we are seeing a bit of a delayed reaction to news that the Obama budget contains a hefty 5% royalty tax on their revenues. That budget has zero chance of passing in its current form but it could be that the mere mention of such a thing has gotten some owners of these shares nervous especially if those risk aversion trades come back in vogue.

Once again it comes back to the desire on the part of investors to gain LEVERAGED exposure to the gold price. If they can do this by using the ETF and not have to concern themselves with risks of a political nature such as what is being attempted by the current Administration, they why bother buying these things at all is the thinking that is currently in vogue among the larger part of the speculative community at this point.

The mining shares are also now seriously underperforming the broader stock market continuing a pattern that has emerged since last summer.

Some of the readers wrote to expres their desire to see a tax of this sort hit the mining sector. My only response to that is very simple - a royalty tax comes right off the bottom line of any company involved in mining here in the US. The lower the net profits of a company, the more it impacts their share price. Be careful what you wish for if you hold these shares in your portfolio and take the side of the Administration that this is a good and necessary tax. That is your portfolio and your wealth that is going to take the hit. If you are willing to lose your money over it - fine and dandy - but then do not complain and bitch when you see your portfolio going nowhere or actually moving in the wrong direction.

Hedge funds are not going to acquire mining company shares out of the supposed "goodness" of their hearts. They will only buy them if they think that they can make a profit on them and that necessitates continued strong and rising profits from these companies. Anything that might impact that will be part of the equation in calculating whether or not they meet these criteria.

In Related matters...

This story illustrates something so eggregious that I felt compelled to post it so as to let the readers know what the fallout from this meddling Administration's policies is across this country.

We apparently now have Kathleen Sebelius's Department of Health and Human Services feeling that they have the right to POLICE your childrens' lunch boxes.

Take a look at the following story and tell me that we are not losing our freedoms in this nation. This is what Obamacare has wrought and what we can expect to see more of should Americans be foolish enough to empower this group of control freaks for another 4 years come this November.

The next thing you know these people will be telling us when we can wipe our rear ends and with what kind of paper.

Make no mistake whatsoever about it - Obamacare has nothing to do with Health Care - it is all about government control over your life. From its trampling on the First Admendment rights of Catholics here in the US to this "policing of lunch boxes", we are witnessing only a small foretaste of what is going to happen in this country if they are not defeated at the ballot box.


Carolina Journal News Reports

Preschooler’s Homemade Lunch Replaced with Cafeteria “Nuggets”

State agent inspects sack lunches, forces preschoolers to purchase cafeteria food instead

By Sara Burrows

Feb. 14th, 2012

RAEFORD — A preschooler at West Hoke Elementary School ate three chicken nuggets for lunch Jan. 30 because a state employee told her the lunch her mother packed was not nutritious.

The girl’s turkey and cheese sandwich, banana, potato chips, and apple juice did not meet U.S. Department of Agriculture guidelines, according to the interpretation of the agent who was inspecting all lunch boxes in her More at Four classroom that day.

http://www.carolinajournal.com/exclusives/display_exclusive.html?id=8762

Gold moving higher in Yen terms; strong in Euro terms

Some of the friends of gold are no doubt frustrated by its inability to breach stubborn chart resistance near the $1750 level in US Dollar terms. Bullion bank opposition near this line is absorbing bids and has thus far resulted in some light long liquidation among the more short-term oriented bulls.

However, as stated many, many times on this site, gold is not ONLY A DOLLAR PRICED STORY - as much as its detractors would love to make it fade from the minds of men, it is ultimately a currency - a currency which is immune from Central Bank and monetary officials' debauchery efforts.

Overnight we learned that the Bank of Japan announced additional liquidity measures in another attempt to derail the money flows that have been coming the way of the Yen during periods of safe haven trades. The stronger yen is becoming a serious political issue there in Japan and exporters continue to put pressure on the monetary authorities to do something about it. That is exactly what they did as they attempt to meet the Federal Reserve's dovishness with that of their own.

Look at what has been happening to gold when priced in terms of the Yen as a result of all this. As the yen sinks in value on the foreign exchange market the gold price in terms of that currency is steadily moving higher. While certainly not as impressive as the Euro gold chart shown beneath it, one can see that the price action today is thus far signaling that BOJ efforts to debauch their currency might just be working. It is certainly losing value against gold.

Keep in mind that gold strength, in terms of these other major currencies, is going to prevent any deep sell offs in the US Dollar priced gold. As long as this continues, dip buyers will keep showing up on any bouts of price weakness here in the US. It is this occurence that is the Achilles' heel of the bullion banks - they can absorb paper bids here in the US but attempting to prevent gold from rising in terms of the other major currencies is simply out of their ability. World wide liquidity efforts by the Central Banks of the West have consequences that cannot be avoided, no matter how many games are played on the Comex Exchange.

Crude Oil back above $100 - Again

Crude oil simply refuses to break down and is once again trading back above the $100 mark. What is perhaps even more concerning is that gasoline prices are now trading above the $3.00 point at the wholesale futures markets, and this is during the time of year in which gasoline demand is generally quite tame compared to the onset of the busy driving season later this spring and summer.

Should gasoline bulls be able to push price through the chart levels shown, it will portend a move back to the late summer highs of last year. As said in a previous post from last week - PAIN at the gasoline pump is now unavoidable.

Gold holding at initial support thus far

Gold has dropped into the first zone of support noted on the price chart near the $1720 level and has thus far held as dip buyers surfaced. That buying was fostered by a weaker Dollar which was lower in today's session but has not broken down decisively yet below the critical 79 level.

Surging crude oil and gasoline prices did help gold today as some traders are concerned that the rise in energy costs will eventually feed through and impact the price of other goods and services  in the broader economy. Transportation costs can only be absorbed for so long.

Mining company stock owners - note well

Most of you who read this site are well aware of my political leanings - I happen to believe that the current administration is perhaps the most inept, reckless and endangering to liberty in the history of this nation and needs to be replaced at the ballot box this coming November.

Those of you who own mining company stocks should take note that as part of the budget submitted by the Obama administration, all hardrock mining companies would be required to pay  annual rents and royalty fees of no less than 5% of gross proceeds.

Currently a law that is 140 years old, exempts them from paying royalties to the US government.

Environmentalists have been after this law for years and have found their champion in the current occupant of the White House.

The rental portion of this budget would impose a fee on for both public and private lands with the funds supposedly being used to clean up abandoned mines. Coal companies are currently under a similiar plan.

Don't worry however - I am completely assured that every bit of the monies raised from this targetted plundering will be put to good use for the American citizenry  with absolutely none of it going to cronies of Obama such as Solyndra.

Were it not for the fact that most political analysts expect the Obama budget to be DOA in the Congress, the mining shares would have been sharply lower today. Those of you who own these things are well advised to pay close attention to this. Senator Harry Reid, who has long ago sold his soul to the left's agenda and who hails from a swing state, will probably be getting an earful from mining company executives with any connection to the state of Nevada. I will be surprised to see him actually coming out in support of this proposal if he wishes to run for re-election next time around. Then again, he might be ready to retire by 2016.

Trader Dan on King World News Weekly Metals Wrap

Please click on the following link to listen in to my regular weekly radio interview with Eric King on the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap.

http://tinyurl.com/87ukomd

Gold Continuing to Fail at $1750

Gold has now spiked through the $1750 level several times since the end of last month but has not been able to CLOSE THROUGH this level. Until it does, the market will not be able to start a new leg higher in the uptrend.

Generally speaking, markets tend to pause at resistance levels until they can gather enough of a spark to take them strongly through those or they retreat and consolidate leading to some basing action. During the latter, some of the shorter term oriented bulls will liquidate longs out of frustration or out of a desire to cash in some profits and bank them. That selling then paves the way for some opportunistic short selling to emerge.

We had a combination of both today leading to a pull back in price. Support on the downside remains near $1725 - $1720 with stronger support down closer to $1710 - $1705.

Silver needs to get above $34 and stay there to allow it a chance to test major resistance near $35.00 - $35.25.