"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET



Friday, April 1, 2011

Santa Claus is coming to a Foreign Bank near you

Kudos to Bloomberg for pursuing this issue and getting to the bottom of the Federal Reserve's "Excellent Adventures around the Globe" with American taxpayer money.

Note the part that I highlighted in blue.

Ron Paul's comments are more than likely striking a chord in the hearts of those who are as outraged over this as I am.

The irony in all this is that the US is effectively bankrupt having a federal government debt burden over $14 trillion and rising with politicians unable to even cut a measley $60 billion without the fools on the left screaming "extremism" and yet here we are loaning money to other foreign banks.

Let's see if I have this right - the Fed prints the money into existence and then the US government goes a begging into the world by issuing gazillions in Treasuries and then turns around and loans that to other banks.

"Oh don't worry", they tell us, "the loans are being repaid".

That's terrific. When I see the US reducing its own external liabilities then I won't worry. Meanwhile the US plunges deeper and deeper in the debt abyss.

Foreign Banks Tapped Fed's Lifeline Most as Bernanke Kept Borrowers Secret

 

Federal Reserve Loans Billions to Hugo Chavez

Actually they did no such thing but with the reports coming fast and furious out of Bloomberg this morning about Federal Reserve lendings to foreign banks, I could not resist the fictitious headline.

It is very rare that I agree with anything said by the Socialist Senator from the state of Vermont, but in this case I think he is echoing the sentiment many American citizens are expressing after learning of Mr. Bernanke and company's largesse with the what is effectively the property of the US taxpayer.  

Maybe this is the new policy - Loan 'em money first - get repaid and then bomb 'em next.

Libya-Owned Arab Banking Corp. Drew at Least $5 Billion From Fed in Crisis

Arab Banking Corp., the lender part- owned by the Central Bank of Libya, used a New York branch to get 73 loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the 18 months after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed.
The bank, then 29 percent-owned by the Libyan state, had aggregate borrowings in that period of $35 billion -- while the largest single loan amount outstanding was $1.2 billion in July 2009, according to Fed data released yesterday. In October 2008, when lending to financial institutions by the central bank’s so- called discount window peaked at $111 billion, Arab Banking took repeated loans totaling more than $2 billion. ......

.....

“It is incomprehensible to me that while creditworthy small businesses in Vermont and throughout the country could not receive affordable loans, the Federal Reserve was providing tens of billions of dollars in credit to a bank that is substantially owned by the Central Bank of Libya,” Senator Bernard Sanders of Vermont, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, wrote in a letter to Fed and U.S. officials.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-31/libya-owned-arab-banking-corp-drew-at-least-5-billion-from-fed-in-crisis.html

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Monthly Gold Charts - March 2011

Gold scored an all time high record monthly close!

Gold has now pushed solidly past the 75% Fibonacci retracement level from the 1979 high to the 2001 low in inflation adjusted terms. Note - that this chart uses the government's CPI number which is utterly useless but at least can serve as a type of benchmark against which to compare the current gold price in real terms.

Silver - 8 hour chart update

Range trade until it clears $38 and holds the level.

June Gold - 8 Hour chart

I am posting this chart up to try to get a better read on the volume being done in the gold pit. There is a defect in the software that I am using which makes it a bit tough during the transition between contracts from active or front month to the next most active which then becomes integrated into the continuous contract price and volume.

As volume drops off in the April contract it shows up on the continuous contract but that same volume is increasing in the June as it gets ready to become the active month for charting purposes. June will shortly be the contract employed when we do volume analysis on the continous contract but for the immediate time I am having to use a separate chart for the June to catch its volume readings.

Note that the last few bars are showing the transition to it as the most active contract. I apologize for neglecting to catch that my comments on the recent gold chart were the same as yesterday when it comes to the volume. There was a drop off in volume as traders were winding down positions related to the end of the month/quarter but volume picked up to more normal levels yesterday in the June.

Note that strong volume is anything over 75,000 contracts on one of these bars. Decent volume is anthing above 62,000 or so. These are 8 hour bar readings and not the total for the day so keep that in the back of your mind as you review this.

As you can see, there was decent volume driving the move towards resistance but once it got there bulls lost interest in pressing it through that level and volume has now subsided. I want to see what kind of readings we get in the June tomorrow as the new month begins as well as next Monday when we get the advent of a new week to see whether hedge funds are going to come back in and recommit fresh money to the metals.

Gold now at top of its Trading Range

Please see the chart below for my notes on the technical posture of the market.

Gold is now trading at the exact top of what I believe is a new and higher consolidation range bounded by $1440 on the top and secured by $1410 on the bottom. Until it can push decisively past $1440 on good volume, the range is still in effect.

Trending indicators are generating buy signals but those must be confirmed b a push through $1440 that maintains that level.

Open interest continues declining but that is a function of the completion of the end of the month/quarter book squaring by funds and other large traders with clients. Tomorrow starts a fresh month.

We may need to see the price action Monday to get a more definitive idea of where things are headed next depending on the willingness of traders to place bets ahead of the weekend. Many tend to avoid that not knowing what the weekend break might bring so we will just have to wait and learn what happens and observe how traders react to the advent of April.

USDA Stuns Ag Sector

This morning, USDA released its most current estimate of corn inventories as o March 1 and took many in the ag markets by surprise. They reported a total of 6.52 billion bushels in storage, down from last year's number at this time of 7.694 billion and well below the average of analyst estimations at 6.70 billion.

With an increase in usage combined with these lower stocks, many are expecting USDA to now drop season-end supplies to a record low. Current projected ending levels are at a 15 year low, the equivalent of perhaps 18 days worth of corn needs.

Corn locked limit bid on the opening of pit session trade and has been stuck there ever since. As I write this, there is a pool of well over 278,000 orders to buy in the two front months alone!

The reason I mention this is because these extremely high corn prices are not shutting off demand and that means price will need to rise yet higher. Translation - get ready for a continuation of high meat and chicken prices for the remainder of the 2011 growing season not to mention the rise in prices associated with corn in all products employing it.

With gasoline prices shooting into new highs for the year along with a report that is pushing the price of corn, beans and wheat all higher, the beleaguered consumer is not going to get any respite from the surge in food and energy costs any time soon.

Gasoline Prices set Fresh 32 Month High