This has been the pattern since August of last year and with just a few exceptions, gold has been moving in sync with 10 year Treasury note futures.
Remember, a rising Treasury market means FALLING YIELDS.
As money rushes into bonds to park it while waiting out the uncertainty which is negatively impacting the equity markets, yields will move inversely. AS a matter of fact, the yield on the 10 year is currently sitting at 1.664%. It is set to close out the month not that far above the all time LOW yield near 1.50% ( remember this is a monthly closing yield and does not take into account intramonth spikes.
As long as this continues to be the case - falling yields resulting in safe haven trades - gold will find support - however, it is going to take some sort of catalyst to kick it sharply higher as there is still a very large contingent out there who view this period of falling rates as temporary while they wait for the stimulative impact of lower energy prices, ( and lower food prices) to make themselves felt in the second half of this year.
not to mention that the last 2 weeks have seen monstrous net buying by hedge funds on the gold C.O.T....
ReplyDelete■Dollar Gets Gift From Draghi on Bets for Tighter Fed■
ReplyDeleteby Andrea Wong
7:00 PM EST January 26, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- Dollar bulls say Europe’s 1.1 trillion euro ($1.24 trillion) bond-buying plan will bring the Federal Reserve a step closer to raising interest rates before the year’s out.
By pumping cash into global markets, the European Central Bank may clear the way for the U.S. to tighten its own money supply without stoking volatility, according to Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. As Fed officials start a two-day policy meeting, the greenback is extending a rally that’s taken it to a more than decade-high versus a basket of its peers even as bond investors express less conviction about the timing of an U.S. central bank’s first rate increase since 2006.
“We’ve been expecting dollar strength, and it’s coming quicker than we thought,” Steven Englander, the head of Group of 10 foreign-exchange strategy at Citigroup in New York, said by phone on Jan. 23. Fed officials “may feel they actually have to advance the first tightening rather than put it off.”
Money has flooded into dollar assets in recent months as the world’s largest economy outperforms its developed peers and the Fed prepares to raise its main interest rate from the zero-to-0.25 percent range it’s been in since 2008. That makes the dollar more valuable to investors,...(cont.)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-27/dollar-gets-gift-from-draghi-on-bets-for-tighter-fed-currencies
▪Putin Fingerprints Seen All Over Surprise Interest-Rate Reversal▪
ReplyDelete12:45 PM EST January 30, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- The message some Russia watchers are getting from Friday’s surprise interest-rate cut is this: Start listening more to what President Vladimir Putin’s aides say about monetary policy and less to central bankers.
Here’s the key evidence. In comments made just nine days ago, the country’s central bank chief indicated she saw no chance of a rate cut any time soon after inflation soared to a five-year high. A week earlier, though, one of Putin’s most vocal economic aides urged the exact opposite, saying a reduction was needed to bolster the ailing economy.
So when the Bank of Russia shocked traders and analysts alike by announcing it was lowering the benchmark rate from an 11-year high, the words spoken by that aide, Andrey Belousov, left many to speculate that the Kremlin is exerting more pressure on central bank policy makers. The rate cut -- to 15 percent from 17 percent -- triggered a wave of ruble selling that drove the currency down as much as 4 percent...(cont.)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/russian-whiplash-on-rates-roils-market-crying-foul-over-politics
~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
Tsipras will use Troika for every euro he can get and then he'll dump them.
▪Greece Will Repay ECB, IMF, Reach Deal With EU, Tsipras Says▪
by Nikolaos ChrysolorasCorina Ruhe
8:40 AM EST January 31, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sought to repair relations with creditors after a week-long selloff in bonds and stocks, a move welcomed by euro area officials concerned they were headed for a showdown with the bloc’s most indebted nation.
Greece will repay its debts to the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund and reach a deal “soon” with the euro-area nations that funded most of the country’s financial rescue, Tsipras said in a statement e-mailed to Bloomberg News on Saturday.
“The deliberation with our European partners has just begun,” Tsipras said. “Despite the fact that there are differences in perspective, I am absolutely confident that we will soon manage to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, both for Greece and for Europe as a whole.”...(cont.)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-31/tsipras-says-greece-to-repay-ecb-imf-reach-deal-with-eu
Amazing those type of comments are still believed.
DeleteCountries debts always increase, never do they get paid off.
Wonder where these countries are going to get the money to pay off their debts? Print it?
This is why they have to have inflation, its the only way to reduce debt.
Yep, we are seeing history in the making in real time.
ReplyDeleteWorld record high 30-year bond prices with massive short positions by the speculators.
Despite all the claims about China, Russia, etc. dishoarding Treasuries to "ruin the West financially", the EXACT OPPOSITE is happening.
The clamoring and appetite for U.S. Treasuries, German Bunds, JGB's is now a deafening levels rivaling the noise and hype of the Super Bowl.
Never before in financial market history have we seen a 30+ year unstoppable bull market in paper assets.
And EVERY SINGLE PERSON, INSTITUTION, OR GOVERNMENT who has purchased a 30-yr. U.S. Treasury bond in the last 35 years IS IN A WINNING POSITION.
Yep, that's 100%.
And that does not count 30+ years of interest, which is bonus loot to boot.
"Getting Out of the System" would have been the absolute worst mistake ever made.
The hunt is on and the surface has only been scratched of the depths they'll plumb to collect or seize OPM....(Other Peoples Money)
ReplyDeleteIf 19% is the minimum what might the eventual maximum become?
The Big Squeeze has just begun.
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■Obama Said to Seek 19% Global Minimum Tax to Aid Road Fund■
by Richard RubinJonathan Allen
7:07 PM EST January 31, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama will propose that U.S.-based companies pay a minimum 19 percent tax on their future foreign earnings, capturing profits that are now often beyond the government’s reach.
Obama will also seek a 14 percent mandatory tax on about $2 trillion in stockpiled offshore profits...(cont.)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-01/obama-said-to-propose-taxes-on-foreign-earnings-offshore-profit
Debt, is slowly adding up when companies and governments have to write it off. The exchange rates are a big hint before being blindsided by a default.
ReplyDelete'U.S. companies face billions in Venezuela currency losses, Reuters analysis shows'
"...It's a huge deal and companies will get hit big," said Ali Dibadji, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co Inc. "Take a look at what Kimberly-Clark did last week and what Clorox did a few months ago by getting out of Venezuela."
Cleaning and household products maker Clorox last year decided to exit Venezuela altogether. Its CEO Don Knauss said at the time: "We saw no hope that we could create a sustaining business in that country."
The currency issues are hurting many U.S. companies much more than their sales might suggest. Many of the companies in the analysis have been getting between 1-3 percent of their global revenue from Venezuela..."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-companies-face-billions-venezuela-currency-losses-reuters-061749734--sector.html
Elsewhere, Venezuela arrested store owners after blaming them for creating long waiting lines to buy whatever is available or left on store shelves. Genius.
Dare I say that oil has bottomed out?
ReplyDeleteThe death of King Abdullah has nothing to do with the deflationary atmosphere commodities find themselves in but his passing and power transfer is a significant energy market related benchmark nonetheless.
I think its more to do with the dropping rig count right now. Inventories still haven't come down and won't for a while so there could still be more pain to come.
DeleteAre the ECB’s “really” trying to stimulate their economy and actually create inflation?
ReplyDelete“Draghi said 12% will be debt issued by European Union institutions and agencies, and the rest will be government bonds – 88%….This is a continued bailout for the banks – NOT a stimulus plan for the economy. This will have ZERO impact upon saving European economy for the money will NEVER create a single job.”
“So sorry, this is a coordinated attack that will by no means create inflation, it is trying to save the banking system that is going down in flames.”
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/02/ecbs-is-not-stimulating-economy-its-a-bank-bailout/
~Opinion: What the market doom-and-gloomers fail to grasp about anemic growth~
ReplyDeleteBy Nouriel Roubini
Published: Feb 2, 2015 10:22 a.m. ET
■Roubini’s unconventional truth: The world has too much supply and not enough demand■
NEW YORK (Project Syndicate) — Who would have thought that six years after the global financial crisis, most advanced economies would still be swimming in an alphabet soup — ZIRP, QE, CE, FG, NDR, and U-FX Int — of unconventional monetary policies? No central bank had considered any of these measures (zero interest rate policy, quantitative easing, credit easing, forward guidance, negative deposit rate, and unlimited foreign exchange intervention) before 2008. Today, they have become a staple of policy makers’ toolkits.
The assortment of ‘Austrian’ economists, radical monetarists, gold bugs and bitcoin fanatics has repeatedly warned that such a massive increase in global liquidity would lead to hyperinflation, the U.S. dollar’s collapse, sky-high gold prices, and the eventual demise of fiat currencies at the hands of digital cryptocurrency counterparts.
Indeed, just in the last year and a half, the European Central Bank...(cont.)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-market-hacks-fail-to-grasp-about-anemic-growth-2015-02-02
The fact they still can't exit ZIRP, QE, unconventional monetary policy 6 years later, is the problem.
DeleteYet Roubini seems to conclude it can just continue without issue because so far it has not created an issue.
The Swiss national bank peg failing is proof unconventional monetary policy has created huge distortions and problems just waiting to fail.
Has anyone heard from Hubert lately? I'm missing his insight. I hope all is well.
ReplyDeleteBernanke/Yellen have proved without question that printing trillions is the key to the "Path To Prosperity"
ReplyDeleteEver since the myriad number of "Alphabet Soup" programs, the retail and consumer discretionary stocks staged the biggest, longest, steepest rally EVER.
Not only that, Treasury yields CRASHED.
And commodity prices PLUMMETED.
Due to this unparalleled success, EVERY central bank on the planet going forward will be attempting the same heroic feat.
Want proof?
Check out the ASX200 in Australia, punching to new 6-year highs as we speak, immediately after the RBA slashed interest rates to 2.25%.
Bernanke/Yellen have proved without question that printing trillions is the key to the "Path To Prosperity "
DeleteWhat a truly assinine statement to make...........I can't even tell if you're being serious or not, but something tells me you are.
Printing money has always been the Path To Ruin throughout history.
DeleteThe problem with history is no one remembers it by the time they start printing again, so the same mistakes of the past keep being repeated.
Some might find this financial alchemy interesting or maybe even worrisome.
ReplyDelete~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
■Meet the 80-Year-Old Whiz Kid Reinventing the Corporate Bond Market■
by Edward Robinson
12:01 AM EST February 3, 2015
"...His latest handiwork is a hybrid security that embeds a credit-default swap, the derivative that helped push the global financial system to the edge of ruin in 2008, in a corporate bond.
By joining the two securities into an instrument called an “exchangeable bond,” or eBond for short, McQuown says companies will be able to transform junk-graded debt into the equivalent of AAA-rated notes." (cont.)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-03/meet-the-80-year-old-whiz-kid-reinventing-the-corporate-bond
Interesting that there this is a clearing house for swaps but no details. Are over the counter SWAPS included (private contracts). Are junk derivatives still allowed over the counter? Can you trade these instruments in some foreign markets not signatory to the latest rules and regulations? How are these instruments funded esp. SWAPS? What percentage of these instruments blowing up will it take to bring down the system (if you think they are 100% funded, you are dreaming)? Remember the time some Euro paper, and others, defaulted and it was arbitrarily ruled not a default?
ReplyDeleteElsewhere, everything seems to be bouncing from the steep drops. To be expected. Wonder what get reloaded or what bets are placed for the next leg?
Speak and it shall rise:
ReplyDelete"The Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates in 2015 and should consider restarting its bond-buying QE stimulus program if inflation does not return to 2 percent rapidly enough, a top Fed official said on Tuesday."
And the desired result of the Fed statement is achieved, the stock markets rocket higher and higher.
Beyond obvious and embarrassing the desperation to keep the stock markets high.
Just 10% of Americans own 91 percent of the nation's stocks and mutual funds, according to economist Edward Wolff. Most of the remainder is held by a "middle class" that is steadily losing ground. The bottom 60% is almost entirely shut out.
ReplyDeleteSo in other words, the bottom 60% don't benefit much at all from all that money printing do they?
No they don't, nor do they own expensive cars and beachfront property. The wealthy own enormous amts of stuff the less-affluent do not.
DeleteWhat's your point? Or are you just (once again) trying to get another straw man argument going?
Not making any point.....just countering Mark's " the consumer living in Utopia" post.....is that ok?
DeleteNo, it's not OK kjm! The Protocol is to clear it with Rico before posting. Didn't you get a Memo?
DeleteLooks like the gloves just came off....
ReplyDelete~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
~ECB Shuts Off Direct Funds to Greece~
~Greece May Run Out of Cash as Early as March~
~What the ECB's Move on Greek Government Debt Is Really All About~
~The ECB Just Tightened the Screws on Greece~
~Euro Weakens After ECB Limits Direct Funding for Greek Banks~
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-04/ecb-shuts-off-direct-funds-to-greece-as-reform-progress-in-doubt
Μπουμ!
DeleteArmstrong economics teaches there is Confidence in the dollar
ReplyDeleteAnd so all is well …at least for the time being. :)
Cash hoarding = Deflation
“The deflationary cycle we are in is part of the uncertainty. People will not spend their money creating inflation until they are convinced that the asset side will rise faster.
So first you have the contraction (hoarding) that produces the DEFLATION, and then after that wiped out many who keep looking in the opposite direction, then and ONLY then will the INFLATION appear”.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/05/the-sharp-rise-in-hoarding-cash-deflationary-trend/
If I may beg the question….
Where are the Armstrong Economic articles that Correctly explain EXACTLY what is backing up all this CASH that is causing the nations of the world to believe in this Beast system?
F$D$R$L Reserve Note system?
Treasury Bonds?
Bonds = Bondage?
Bondage = Collateral?
Collateral = Confidence?
$ $ $ Citizens…can you see the “serpent on the pole” symbol here?
If citizens of a very, powerful Corporation are not free—either willingly or by ignorance--then perhaps SLAVERY is the proper enigma answer to where this “Confidence” in the DOLLAR is ultimately coming from which you have been talking sooo much about lately, Mr. Armstrong.
And so, Slavery = Confidence :)
Looks like General Jim's mining company is about go "Bre-X"
ReplyDeleteOr get "Radio Shacked"
Trading at $0.60, LOL......
Pity those souls who "Got Out of the System" and traded their paper fiat for TRX stock certificates.
TRX having its troubles altright. On the other hand, a lot of the quality miners are sitting with bull flags.....looking to break higher it appears. They've held up well considering gold spends most of its time a the bottom of its trading range.
ReplyDeleteSee what tomorrow brings with the payrolls.
Which do you consider "Quality Miners"?
DeleteGDX, GG, AEM, NEM, SLW smaller...RIO, SMF
DeleteYep, GDX, GoldCorp, SLW, etc. are major players... at least they retain some value in downturn cycles.
DeleteI doubt any truth seekers out there ( @ 5% of humanity ) were fooled into dumping a major portion of their wealth into petty junior minor stocks.
I danced a few rounds with a couple junior minors, but never put much faith or money in them. Fancy dancing with a "single" junior minor is a “recipe for catastrophe.”
Individual junior stocks—like the one many here on this board have shed light onto--should be an example for all of us to remember so that we can warn other potential victims before they are taken to the cleaners...especially when another round of this kind of foolishness is ripe for the harvest.
In my opinion, kjm. :)
Mickey Fulp just released a musing on the cost of mining gold. You may want to consider it before buying.
DeleteGDX collapsing in a flaming heap, within days after 10 articles posted on KWN about "shocking upside targets for gold and silver", LOL!!!!
ReplyDeleteFrom Eric Sprott on KWN speaking about a derivatives collapse...
Delete"I don’t even know if we will ever see it (the enormity of the financial destruction), Eric, because of these changes in accounting policies."
So...is he TRYING to state that even if a QUADRILLION dollar derivatives collapse happens that we might not actually know or realize it because of the accounting methods they will use or might be using now???
To make such an assertion basically is like saying..."It happened or is underway but you might not realize it or see it in any tangible way if it's buried on a balance sheet or if they change the FINRA to accomodate the derivative losses."
That's my take on what he's trying to say and have it both ways. He'll claim something yet it can't be proved or disproved. That's total B.S. and a shills way of painting his predictions in an opaque way.
I've been stating online for the past several years since QE started that the way they'll bury and enable this entire grand CB monetary experiment is by the use of new or adapted FINRA rules and whatever legal methods Congress passes (and the repeal of Dodd-Frank and other legislation they promised!!!) plus the element of TIME.
I don't care if Sprotts wealthy or owns millions of ounces of gold or silver etc.
He's a huckster through and through.
No businessman of integrity or principle would trot out such vaporous comments or predictions that basically state..."Trust me, you might not be able to see it or prove it but it's (derivatives collapse) is happening all around you....and gold and silver is going much higher btw."
Sprott and all the other shills out there who regurgitate that same crap and line of thinking are a sad bunch who rely on, and try to profit off of, the gullibility of others.
From a US stand point I believe the Iranian nuclear talks were never intended to end in a deal.
ReplyDeleteIt's been more of a ..."Keep your friends close and your enemies closer"...temporary type of relationship. A relationship that could unravel rather quickly and result in direct confrontation between Iran and the umbrella of forces currently aligning against it and ISIS.
I'm not sure I've seen it mentioned online but the chatter on ISIS and who might be behind it range from ISIS being the US/CIA or it being Israel or SA etc.
My contention is that ISIS is principly Iran and it's mercenaries in the area.
If you consider the caliphate aspect of this and how ISIS was attempting to take eastern Syria and northern/eastern Iraq it almost looks like a land bridge of sorts was being established between Syria through Iraq to Iran.
Is ISIS (or Iran) fighting Syria and taking it's territory OR is Iran trying to PROCURE Syrian territory while fighting other rebels in the area who IN FACT are trying to seize land AWAY from Assad and hence Iran.
At this point and largely underreported I believe is the possibility that Iran for the most part controls or is heavily involved in Iraq within and east of the Tigris/Euphrates River valley.
There might be a reason why we hear no news whatsoever about Iranian successes against ISIS in Iraq or even Syria.
Consider this...if you go back in time to the beginning of ISIS and substitute the word ISIS for Iran it fits like a glove.
Western media keeps asking and talking about the sophistication and tactics of ISIS and who they are and how could they become so dominant and entrenched so quickly.
My opinion is that ISIS is Iran just like the Taliban got it's roots in Afghanistan as a US proxy against Russia in the 1980's....and it worked!
There's a reason why so many countries in MENA are intent in fighting ISIS if you consider ISIS is more or less Iran.
There's a reason that Syria isn't publicly blaming or fighting ISIS in Syria and there's a reason why Hezbollah and Iran are fighting rebels against Assad in Syria......ISIS=Iran.
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■Iran warns West that pragmatist Rouhani at risk from talks failure■
ANKARA/NEW YORK - Iran's foreign minister has warned the United States that failure to agree a nuclear deal would likely herald the political demise of pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani, Iranian officials said, raising the stakes as the decade-old stand-off nears its end-game...(cont.)
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0LB05620150207?irpc=932
Just came across this opinion piece by Charles Krauthammer.
DeleteWhether you like or hate the guy for his political slant you've got to admit he makes some salient points based on decades of observations and weaving the historical context into the current event.
My opinion is that Obama doesn't achieve his historical Iran/Middle East aspirations because longstanding US policy and powerbrokers aren't going to allow a President who is fast approaching lame duck status to distort whatever policy endgame they have instore for Iran.
I'll reitetate how it'll be impossible to consumate a nuclear deal with Iran if an ally of significance (or the US itself) is engaged in significant confrontation with Iran at the same time a deal might get voted on.
Just imagine Obama and the US striking a deal while the whole region (larhely Sunni) is smoldering in a shia/sunni bloodletting war and how our mostly Sunni allies would react.
A nuclear deal seems out of reach or serious.
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■Does the barbarism have a logic?■
February 5, 2015.
By Charles Krauthammer
Why did they do it?
What did the Islamic State think it could possibly gain by burning alive a captured Jordanian pilot?
I wouldn’t underestimate the absence of logic, the sheer depraved thrill of a triumphant cult reveling in its barbarism. But I wouldn’t overestimate it either.
You don’t overrun much of Syria and Iraq without having deployed keen tactical and strategic reasoning....(cont.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/does-the-barbarism-have-a-logic/2015/02/05/3653a126-ad6b-11e4-abe8-e1ef60ca26de_story.html
DPH
DeleteTo your first point. I don't think Obama and Kerry are that smart. Believe they truly expect to negotiate a nuclear deal garanteeing no nuclear bombs. This will not happen as they are playing speed checkers against the long term chess masters.
What they can do is ceed enough points to get a treaty signed, declare vistory and retire as undefeated champions. What happens to the next president is not their concern.
Point two. You make an interesting narrative about Iran being the controlling interest of ISIS. However please consider that there are other minds out there besides Iran. Just because they are a bunch of religious zealots seeking revenge for the 12th century occupation of Outrrmeir(SP?) by the Franks and are using the basest tactics of that era against 21st century mores does not make them dumb or uneducated. Consider that the West has been giving their best and brightest higher education since the 60s. The priests may reject our beliefs but are pleased to take advantage of our knowledge.
In any case we don't have the information to tell what is going on and our media is too crass and careful of their "access" to investigate let alone publish.
Without a coherent strategy across the western world to wage unlimited conventional and non conventional war ISIS will win. Better get all the Arab oil you can now as once they strangle our supply frackers oil is it. jMHO
That was some food for thought Mike, thanks.
DeleteI think if we knew the entirety of what's really going on behind the geoplotical stage it would cause our hair to stand on end.
High stakes poker and history making stuff is going on.
No wonder China is trying to buy and stock as much oil as possible into their strategic reserves. If the ME supply gets disrupted and/or Russia gets entangled in a long, simmering conflict (or short hot war!) China's oil imports would be severely disrupted.
Supply disruptions and high oil pices seem likely at some point despite the best efforts of a certain Saudi prince to talk it down or even lower Asain oil pieces.
Rising war activity in and around Iraq and Saudi Arabia seems to have put a floor or war premium under oil around $50 for now although I believe it could once again easily surge past $100 in the not to distant future.
All this talk about oil never hitting $100 seems a tad presumptous. The largest one day or one week price spike in the history of oil has yet to happen but it will.
@DPH, you might find this documentary interesting.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gene, appreciate that.
DeleteThat was an interesting vid Gene, thanks.
DeleteThe more things change the more they remain the same.
Saudi Arabia/Wahabism being an epicenter of sorts...along with oil.
Feb 16th is a 3 day weekend for the US. Though I expect the EU to blink.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLZj3zOUZNs
DPH aren't the hucksters also the guys that are using the shady accounting tactics to hide the truth?
ReplyDeleteAll these creative schemes fail at some point. Think mortgage backed securities, that scheme worked for awhile and then failed and the public lost.
Will this time be any different or will the public lose again?
Yep, no shortage of hucksters or spin doctors out there in govt or the private sector.
ReplyDeleteAs long as there is an eager audience somewhere they'll always be a salesman or politician who'll say whatever the audience wants to hear.
Will the US/IMF get involved at the last minute?
ReplyDeleteThe devil is in the details of Tsipras' plan.
I'd be curious to know if Greece's printing presses have already started cranking out BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS of drachma's or some other currency in preparation for whatever soon unfolds.
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■Tsipras Outlines Plans to Break Free From Bailout Program■
by Nikolaos ChrysolorasMarcus Bensasson
11:41 AM EST February 7, 2015
Alexis Tsipras, Greece's prime minister, front center, stands alongside Giannis
(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will outline his plans to keep Greece financially afloat while breaking free from its bailout program when he addresses the nation’s parliament on Sunday.
“It is very unlikely that the euro zone will give new money to Greece for months, as the Greek positions are uncertain and significant negotiation is necessary,” Nicholas Economides, professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said by e-mail. “This puts cash-strapped Greece in a very dire position.”
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the group of 19 euro-area finance ministers, on Friday rejected a short-term financing agreement while Greece negotiates a successor program to its current bailout provided by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The prime minister will need to address doubts about Greece’s ability to pay its bills, possibly as early as the end of the month...(cont.)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-07/tsipras-charts-path-forward-for-greece-as-funds-at-risk
Israel is always a good source for what is happening in the ME.
ReplyDeletehttp://debka.com/article/24375/Islamist-State-plots-terror-attacks-inside-Tehran-Hizballah-high-up-killed-in-Damascus-bus-blast
I realize Debka is completely slanted in it's opinions but this article below hints at something much bigger behind the scene.
DeleteGiven the BBC documentary I watched last night from that link Gene provided up above and what this article implies it "almost" sounds as if a US/Iran alliance is taking shape and it's aimed at Saudi Arabia and changing the whole Sunni/Wabahi dynamic that's been in play for decades.
Imho, that would still allow ISIS to be a defacto Iran presence....but with some US help? That's some crazy stuff to even contemplate but crazier things have happened.
Based off a vid and one article I'm not about to "go there" and suggest that's actually happening but some type of dynamic change is underway in MENA.
I think it would blow our minds if we knew exactly what was going on and between whom.
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■Houthi Yemen coup moves Iran’s Middle East hegemonic ambitions forward■
February 8, 2015, 7:55 PM (IDT)
The strings of the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels’ coup which toppled the Yemeni government in Sanaa were pulled from Tehran and Washington.
US intelligence and shared US-Iranian support helped the Houthis reach their goal, which is confined for now to parts of central Yemen and all of the North.
Friday, Feb. 6, the rebels dissolved parliament and seized power in the country of 24 million....(cont.)
http://www.debka.com/article/24389/Houthi-Yemen-coup-moves-Iran%E2%80%99s-Middle-East-hegemonic-ambitions-forward---upheld-by-Washington-
I'm not sure if this capital outflow is due to the hot US dollar or China's economy is slowing down significantly but this capital reversal seems indicative of something bigger on the horizon.
ReplyDeleteIs the big, smart money crowd starting to see cracks in China and cashing out?
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■Opinion: Trouble for China as money flows out■
By Craig Stephen
Published: Feb 8, 2015 10:38 p.m. ET
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s reserve requirement cut last week failed to provide much of a lift as it was more about replacing hot money outflows than adding new money. It also helped to bring into focus the central bank’s tricky position: In an environment of capital outflows how do you fine-tune policy so that both a credit crunch and currency crunch are avoided?
Without signs the economy is regaining momentum...(cont.)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trouble-for-china-as-money-flows-out-2015-02-08
Couldn't agree more...
ReplyDelete~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
■End Of OPEC Is Closer To Reality■
February 09 NEW YORK
OPEC's dominant role in the global oil market is in serious jeopardy.
For nearly half a century, the oil cartel kept a tight check on prices, keeping them from falling too low or rising to unsustainably-high levels.
But OPEC's power is being challenged by the surge in North American oil production...(cont.)
http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/09/investing/oil-prices-shale-opec-end/
Why?
ReplyDelete'US Senator Demands A Federal Reserve Bailout Of Greece'
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-09/us-senator-demands-federal-reserve-bailout-greece
Because of this...
'A Day Of Reckoning For The Euro Has Arrived – 26 TRILLION In Currency Derivatives At Risk'
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/day-reckoning-euro-arrived-26-trillion-currency-derivatives-risk
Another contagion in the making to fell a house of cards, start the dominos falling, etc., due to underfunded insurances policies/bets.
■Silver’s recent rally motivates sellers■
ReplyDeleteMyra P. Saefong
Feb 10, 2015 12:39 p.m. ET
~January price rally for silver spurs sales~
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Silver prices rallied to the tune of 9% in January and private investors sold it in droves.
The number of private investors selling silver rose 83% in January from December following the metal’s price rally in the first month of this year, according to BullionVault’s Silver Investor Index released Tuesday.
The newly launched index, which shows the balance of net buyers over net sellers...(cont.)
marketwatch.com
Breaking news...US Embassy in Yemen seized by the Houthi rebel group.
ReplyDeleteUS/EU boots on ground within 6 months or sooner?
Is Iran implying that if a nuclear deal is reached that most/all of the hotspots will cool down because of it?
ReplyDeleteThat would seem to suggest Iran is behind some or most of it (ISIS) imho and they're using chaos as a tool or bargaining chip...just like the US does all the time.
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■No end to Middle East strife without Iran: Rouhani■
Iran's president said Wednesday that the world needs its help to stabilise a troubled Middle East, in remarks pointing to the wider ramifications of a deal over Tehran's disputed nuclear programme.
In a live televised speech marking the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution, Hassan Rouhani implicitly linked ongoing nuclear talks with world powers to resolving bloody conflicts in Iraq and Syria. "If there is going to be peace and stability in the region, and terrorism is to be uprooted, there is no other way than with the presence of the Islamic Republic of Iran," Rouhani said.
When IS overran northern Iraq in June, predominantly Shiite Iran provided weapons and assistance to Kurdish fighters and sent military advisers to Baghdad. Iran has also backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his battle against rebels, including jihadists.
Referring to the fight against IS as well as longstanding instability in Yemen and Lebanon, Rouhani said Iran was playing a leading regional role. "You've seen in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen that the power that could help those nations against terrorist groups was the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said...(cont.)
https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/no-end-middle-east-strife-without-iran-rouhani-114257423.html
■Global demand for gold drops in 2014■
ReplyDeleteBy Ese Erheriene
Feb 12, 2015 2:02 a.m. ET
~But fourth-quarter demand rises 6% worldwide~
The marketplace for gold took a hit last year.
Global demand for gold fell last year as buying plunged in two important markets, China and India, the World Gold Council said Thursday.
Total demand in 2014 weighed in at 3,924 tons compared with 4,088 tons the previous year. However, gold demand growth rose into the end of the year—fourth-quarter demand was 988 tons, up 6% from the same period the year before...(cont.)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-demand-for-gold-drops-in-2014-2015-02-12
Swiss SNB decision to engage in QE/bond buying getting little press coverage so far.
ReplyDelete~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
■Central Banks Now Open 24/7 Fighting Currency Wars and Deflation■
Simon Kennedy
7:47 AM EST February 12, 2015
(Bloomberg) -- Central banks are now open all hours.
Just as they worked weekends through the financial crisis, policy makers are again signaling they can strike at any time for the good of their economies.
Spooked by the threat of deflation, Sweden’s Riksbank became the latest to put investors on alert when it said on Thursday that it’s “prepared to do more at short notice” after cutting its main interest rate below zero and unexpectedly saying it will buy government bonds.
“To ensure that inflation rises towards the target, the Riksbank is prepared to quickly make monetary policy more expansionary, even between the ordinary monetary policy meetings, should the need arise,” it said in a statement.
The world’s oldest central bank is not alone in throwing out its normal agenda. The Reserve Bank of India ignored...(cont.)
bloomberg.com
Wow...ECB drastically raises Greece's ELA eligibility by over 1,000%
ReplyDeleteThis opens the door of precedence for future troubled EU members who are much larger (Italy, Portugal, Spain) when it becomes their turn to tap the ELA.
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■ECB raises limit on emergency funding for Greek banks■
Feb 12, 2015 10:56 a.m. ET
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank on Thursday boosted the amount of emergency assistance that can be provided to Greek banks by 5 billion euros ($5.7 billion), according to German news reports. That lifts the total amount of funding Greek banks can access through a program known as emergency liquidity assistance, or ELA, to 65 billion euros, reports said.
An ECB spokeswoman offered no comment on the reports. In a decision that took effect Wednesday, the ECB earlier this month said it would no longer accept junk-rated Greek government debt as collateral from Greek banks in return for cheap ECB funding loans, but said the banks could continue to tap funding via ELA, which is administered by the Greek central bank.
Halting the ability of Greek banks to tap ELA could potentially create a funding crisis for the country's banking sector, analysts have warned.
marketwatch.com
Ok...I wrongly misread that as the limit was being raised from 5 billion euro to 65 billion euro instead of going up 5 billion more from 60 to 65 bln.
DeleteI'll let my mistake stand instead of deleting and hiding it.
Thumbs up!
DeleteBut...but...I thought a collapse of the USD was coming soon and the yuan would ascend quickly in it's place???
ReplyDeleteEveryone (me too) who bothered at all to spend the time to listen to Sprott, Sinclair and some of the other balloonheads out there had better buckle up for another 10-20 year metals cycle because it'll take at least that long to wash out the bad taste leftover from the bullish crash in the metals we've witnessed so far. Investors aren't going to flock back into metals in a big way anytime soon imho.
It would seem to me that the big trade or "to da' moon" moment everyone might be waiting for was the crash in the metals that's still ongoing.
Anyone claiming the big move they referred to years ago was from these current price levels is full of it no matter how hard ir consistently try to stroke or massage their own predictions or comments.
At least Sprott is starting to talk somewhat honestly/realistically at this point but the damage done to his and others credibility (plus investors bank accounts) is still ongoing.
To think that some of the other balloonheads out there are still incessantly trying to pump a bullish meme while parsing their previous predictions on a daily basis is sad and irresponsible.
By the looks of it online some of the more popular bullish sites are shriveling up and being ignored.
You can only cry "wolf" or "bottom" so many times before most sensible, open-minded people think...."Hey, wait a minute, you're just making stuff up as you go along!"
The gold/silver promoters and the pol's have two common traits.
They have the gift/curse of being able to pump BS with a straight face and they're experts at kicking their can of wrong decisions/predictions down the road.
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http://sprottglobal.com/thoughts/articles/eric-sprott-expect-physical-gold-backing-of-currencies-within-next-decade/
Q. "Eric, how do you expect the world might look in 20-30 years, currency-wise?"
A. "Well, if I was to bet, in less than 20-30 years we will have to have a gold-backed currency?"
Had a talk with one of Sprotts brokers who wanted me as a client. After my remarks about his one note story I h not heard back. I wonder why not?
DeleteYeah, I, for one, rarely visit the precious metals pumper sites any more. Just occasionally out of morbid curiosity.
DeleteAs mentioned earlier this week...Israel will scuttle any chance of a nuclear agreement by any means including an attack if necessary.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure Netanyahu's speech before the US Congress will strongly insinuate that possibility.
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■Israel Warns Anew Of Action Against Iran■
.
AFP 10 hours ago
Jerusalem (AFP) - Intelligence Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz warned Thursday that Israel could act unilaterally against Iran over its nuclear drive, saying Tehran has failed to make concessions in talks with world powers.
"I won't be too specific but all options are still on the table," Steinitz told reporters.
"We never limited Israel's right of self-defence because of some diplomatic constraints," he said.
Significant gaps remain between Iran and the P5+1 world powers on specific measures to end a 12-year standoff on Tehran's nuclear programme...(cont.)
yahoo.com/news
Gold is now in a buying range. I don't see the price falling below 1200.
ReplyDeleteAs discussed on here previously, Iran is starting to be increasingly publicly painted as a villian and threat the closer the 3rd attempt to reach a nuclear deal becomes.
ReplyDeleteIsrael starting a dust-up with Iran is still my outlook.
This Argentina "revelation" could be a catalyst towards that end although I'm sure Israel has known for years that Iran was behind it.
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■Argentina's President Fernandez Charged in Probe of Alleged Cover-Up■
Daniel Cancel/Charlie Devereux
12:30 PM EST February 13, 2015
~Argentine Prosecutor Charges President~
(Bloomberg) -- Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was charged by a prosecutor with trying to cover up the alleged involvement of IRANIAN OFFICIALS in the country’s worst terrorist attack. Now a judge must decide whether to pursue the case.
In a document filed to federal court, Prosecutor Gerardo Pollicita formally accused Fernandez, Foreign Minister Hector Timerman, lawmaker Andres Larroque and other government supporters of trying to remove Iranian officials from Interpol lists in a 2013 accord, in exchange for trade (oil) preferences ...(cont.)
bloomberg.com
Russia mainly targeted...
ReplyDelete~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
■Over 100 banks hit by sophisticated cyberattack■
.
AFP 1 hour ago
Washington (AFP) - A sophisticated global cyberattack struck more than 100 banks in 30 countries stealing hundreds of millions of dollars, The New York Times reported Saturday.
Citing a soon to be released report from computer security company Kaspersky Lab, the newspaper said the attack involved malicious software that gave hackers long-term access to banking systems.
A group of Russians, Chinese and Europeans was able to siphon off around $300 million in one of the world's largest bank robberies, the report said.
The money was transferred to bank accounts around the world in small-value amounts to avoid detection.
Hackers largely focused on banks in Russia, but millions of dollars were also taken from banks in Japan, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United States as well, the Times said.
Hackers had such advanced access to the banks' systems that they could force ATM machines to dispense cash at specific times and locations where hackers could pick it up.
yahoo.com/news
Nice breakdown in the PMs this AM. Pity the poor 'bugs!
ReplyDeleteI don't see an alert on SP500 bullish trend, except the blue upwards resistance is still holding. In case we break up, possible acceleration towards 2300.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, OBVD in a nice upwards channel confirming the trend.
Bearish divergences on the weekly time unit create small corrections which give the opportunity to buy the dips.
Trend still bullish to me.
[IMG]http://i59.tinypic.com/2zpjqc3.jpg[/IMG]
https://i0.wp.com/i58.tinypic.com/1zg96ds.jpg
Greek farce continues. They must sure be laughing at the saps advancing them more money, even after all the bluster from the Germans and Dutch. Next time the German bluff will have no effect at all. It is abundantly apparent that they are desperate to keep the crazy pack of cards still standing because if Greece exits the dominoes will all cascade. The next thing to come will be huge debt write offs, and others in the EU will be lining up for the same. Only Britain looks like a paragon of virtue, with Cameron as smug as a bug in a rug, well set for the upcoming election.
ReplyDeleteThe message from the Fed, in cryptic language, is that there will be no rate hike in June. Gold should have gone spastic but could only put in a measly $12. This does not bode well for the precious metal, and we can expect prices to continue falling
The ECB and Fed are trapped in a box of supporting debt bubbles and market bubbles.
DeleteYet the markets still seem to have belief in it Peter, so no need for gold in their minds.
"....Of course you has the promoters touting QE1-3 confusing everyone for gold rallied ONLY because people questioned the survival of the system including banks. It had absolutely nothing to do with money supply, no gold in Fort Knox, manipulations, or how trading gold in Shanghai would be “real” and the NY COMEX “paper” world would collapse. Every possible bullshit story came rolling out and buried a lot of people with significant financial losses. Had they been stock brokers putting out that unsupported claims, they would have gone to prison for 20 years for fraud. It is a wonder there is not some class-action suit against some of these huxters."
ReplyDelete~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/19/gold-made-it-cycle-inversion-it-is-what-it-is/
If the U.S. wants to thwart any possibility of a NATO country becoming vulnerable and financially beholden to Russia or China they'll need to once again become the lender of last resort.
ReplyDelete~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
■Opinion: Why the U.S. will have to bail out Greece■
By Matthew Lynn
Feb 18, 2015 4:00 a.m. ET
~Athens and Brussels may want talks to fail, but Washington doesn’t~
Fighting has flared up again in the Ukraine.
The Egyptians are sending soldiers into Libya as another North African state collapses into chaos. The militants of Islamic State are spreading their influence across the region.
You’d think Barack Obama might have bigger foreign policy issues to worry about than a small state of 10 million people on the eastern edges of the Mediterranean.
But Greece may be about to turn from a European into an American problem...(cont.)
marketwatch.com
No shortage of demand for US treasury bonds...
ReplyDelete~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
■Foreign ownership of Treasurys INCREASED in 2014■
By Sue Chang
Feb 19, 2015 4:20 p.m. ET
~Even as China, the largest holder of U.S. debt, trimmed its holdings~
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Foreigners increased their holdings of U.S. government bonds in 2014, even as China’s appetite for U.S. debt waned, according to data released by the Treasury Department earlier this week.
Foreigners held $6.154 trillion worth of Treasuries at the end of 2014, up from $5.793 trillion at the end of 2013, as higher yields paired with a stronger dollar made U.S. debt more attractive to foreign investors.
“The main drivers [of the demand for Treasurys] are the decline in yields in Europe and the widening spread between U.S. Treasuries and the German 10-year bonds,”...(cont.)
marketwatch.com
Armstrong looks to be be saying fools DPH from his comments below. He says those buying bonds will lose their shirts soon.
Delete"They will be forced to turn to private assets when they wake up and see that government debt is just hopeless. They are keeping interest rates historically low which saves them a fortune right now, but as rates propel higher, the entire system will collapse. Those who have bought bonds at these rates will lost their shirt, pants, house, wife, kids, and the dog."
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/19/the-sovereign-debt-crisis-on-schedule/
A few weeks ago after the Swiss unpegged from the Euro I posted an article about Denmarks CB and it's public proactive stance about defending the Krone no matter the cost.
ReplyDeleteI believe the quote was something like..."We have plenty of Krone available to defend our currency."
I believe my comment was something like..."We'll see about that."
At this point I'm wondering if they still feel the same way about the Euro/Krone peg. At what point does radical monetary policy experimentation become panic?
I think some of the EU CB's are on the cusp of panic and will overreact and start some type of dominoe effect UNLESS a US/Fed rescue of Greece happens.
That rescue seems possible but until then a sense of multiple EU currency panics seems to be simmering and close to a boiling point.
A US bailout of this situation will dramatically effect the FX market...as will the eventual US rate hike. Buckle up.
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■Danish Krone Drops After Bets on Euro Peg Breaking Are Reversed■
by Tasneem Hanfi Brogger
9:01 AM EST February 20, 2015
~"The central bank would never unilaterally break the rules that Denmark abides by inside the European Union..."~
~"When we say we will do whatever it takes to defend the krone’s peg to the euro, then that is obviously within the boundaries of what is legal.”~
~Reversing Bets~
Besides record currency interventions and rate cuts, measures have also included SUSPENDING government bond issuance. Rohde has said he’s also ready to consider purchasing government and mortgage bonds to drive down yields and undermine the appeal of Danish assets...."
bloomberg.com
Why do I get the feeling that Greece will walk away from this?
ReplyDeleteIsn't this situation exactly the platform Syriza ran on?
Too say FU to the EU?
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■Greece’s Debt Deal Isn’t The End of Eurozone Drama■
By William Watts
Published: Feb 20, 2015 5:33 p.m. ET
~How far was the can kicked down the road this time?~
NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—Rejoicing over the tentative resolution of the latest round of eurozone debt drama? Good for you. You’ll get to go through it again in four months.
That is assuming Greece’s weekend exercise in picking its own austerity poison somehow proves mortifying enough to appease the “institutions” (don’t call them the troika anymore) overseeing the country’s bailouts while not enraging Greek voters who elected the new government on the promise it would stop Berlin and Brussels from forcing more austerity down their throats.
That could prove to be a tall order. Failure on the latter front could mean new elections. Greek voters in January supported Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party on the idea that Greece didn’t want to leave the euro, but could no longer abide harsh austerity measures dictated by the dreaded troika — the widely used name for the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Greek Finance Minister Yannis Varoufakis says Greece won a victory in that it will now be a “co-author” of its reforms, rather than having measures imposed by fiat by its creditors.
If Greek voters feel they got a raw deal, another election could be in the offing. If so, it would likely turn not on the question of austerity, but on so-called Grexit.
So now Greece must submit a list of reforms to the institutions by the end of the day Monday.
There is scope for the process to break down between now and then. Varoufakis said Athens will craft its proposals in consultation with its partners, albeit at “arms length.”
But even if everything goes smoothly, the question of what happens next for Greece, which will likely require a third bailout, will need to be answered in four months time.
marketwatch.com
Think that's right. Four month can kick with indignation and noise at every monthly? Review.
DeleteGreece soaks up more euros but the EU still exists v