Ben Bernanke took a while to get that down but by the time he left office, he seemed to have improved quite a bit in the fine art of saying things that within the same speech could be found contradicted by more things within that exact speech.
Yellen has yet to learn this - at least so far as the impact on the currency markets. She utterly decimated the US Dollar by her comments yesterday and just gave the green light to every big macro fund and index fund on the planet to pour money into the commodity complex. I find this nothing other than the mistake of a rookie who is oblivious to the fact that as the chief Central Banker, one does not have the luxury of airing their misgivings in front of the general public.
A couple of things to note here - the Gold Volatility Index just shot through the roof and the equity markets are now going to be even more jumpy than they have become, if such a thing was even possible. The LAST THING that this economy needed is RISING COMMODITY PRICES. As I wrote earlier today, the saving grace of this anemic "recovery" has been a lack of sharply rising prices in the commodity sector. That has kept the price of raw materials, food, etc., from embarking on a tear higher such as happened when QE1 and QE2 were unleashed.
It is one thing to have temporary spikes in key commodities such as crude oil that are related to geopolitical events. Such things come and go and tend to fizzle out with as much fanfare as they started. It is altogether another thing to have the chief Central Banker undercut your own currency, especially when it was looking like it was finally going to get some sustained upside strength to it. That would be bad enough but Yellen seems clueless about the impact of a falling Dollar on the rest of the commodity complex at large. One can argue that the talking down of the Dollar was either deliberate or a side affect of a novice Central Bank chief, but the fact is that if investors start thinking that the Fed wants to knock the Dollar lower, either by design or by accident, they are going to start with their "let's buy everything in sight" trading strategy in the commodity sector.
The result of this will be obvious and none of it is good. I personally had seen some real light at the end of the tunnel by looking at the structure of the commodity board and observing that traders had been looking for some significant declines in food prices later this year. That had kept me optimistic on the inflation front that the current spikes in food costs were going to be coming to an end rather soon. Now I am not sure based on what Yellen has unleashed in these commodity markets.
These hot money flows could care less what any fundamentals might or might not be in the markets into which they pour. The buying orgy, (and that is how to best describe these damned funds) obliterates all the bids in its way and destroys any trader who might get short based on their analysis of the fundamentals in the markets that they are trading. In other words, Janet Yellen just injected another round of more extreme volatility into a sector that had begun to show some semblance of becoming a bit more well behaved.
The reason I know that this is a round of hot money is through the action of the spreads in the markets that I primarily trade in. The spreads have been blown to kingdom come today.
I am including a chart of gold here to show the annihilation of the shorts thanks to Ms. Yellen's comments. When the bulls were able to regain $1280 this morning, many of them began getting out. When $1300 was tried on the first round, some selling emerged but the market barely retreated. That give some strong longs the signal to begin pushing and push they did. Out went more shorts as the market kicked through $1302 and then it was almost a vertical shot north to $1317 as wave after wave of shorts' buy stops were nailed.
You can see the next resistance zone noted on the chart -if the bulls best this, things are going to really heat up. Can they do it?
Again, as a trader I have to play with the cards that are dealt, but that does not mean I have to like the hand. If this is the start of a new trend/strategy among the big funds, and it is unclear if this is a one day wonder or something more, trading for a living just got even more difficult than it already was. Thanks Yellen - can you please just keep your mouth closed for a while?
Well, the "Rip Your Face Off" rally appeared 1 day after I posted "This Is It!, It Is Now!!"
ReplyDeleteLet's see how far it runs, so far volume is building and there is broad participation, even among the junker names, so this could go much farther than previous bear rallies.
I somehow don't think it's Yellen alone causing the rally. Let's not forget the impact of ECB neg rate.
DeleteIt never dropped that hard in late May to begin w/ and a bull hammer on GDXJ chart on May 28th already signaled downside exhaustion. Then there's that ridiculous pile of managed money short in silver who had a record of more wrong than right (despite their flash in the pan success in April 2013) and now silver market proves them wrong ONCE MORE.
Yellen only played a small part of it.
Where's Steve and the gang today?
ReplyDeleteGot it Right; short Yen and corn; no pm positions; Argentina is showing us that sovereign debt is going to be a huge issue going forward; cb's can not keep phony rates down forever; watch out Yen bulls, Bass might be REAL right as his long standing objective is 250
DeleteHoning my skills developed recnelty on twitter here is summary:
ReplyDelete" Fed having ignored 6.6% unemploy threshold;now going 2 ignore recent jump in inflation numbers ''
The FAT lady with big milk jugs sings that they will keep printing and gold is up $40 and Silver a $ (atleast today); now if they stop singing and the music stops then who knows; I sold a bunch of mining stocks today but have kept some too !!
Hi Dan,
ReplyDeleteWhat is the logic behind figuring out the horizontal lines (resist/support) on charts. When I look at them, it's not always obvious where they are.
Well, its official. The market has spoken.
ReplyDeleteBoth GLD and SLV is probably going to close on one of the biggest range days of the year, on over 20 million shares traded.
That means the lows are in, this is no longer a bear market rally, but it is the start of something much bigger.
Mark;
DeleteNow, now Markie Mark - don't get too carried away with this "bear market is over" talk. We had a situation where a very large number of traders were leaning on the short side expecting the Yellen-led Fed to sound a hawkish tone. She did the exact opposite.
The result has been a huge short squeeze as traders were caught flat-footed. That is where the volume is coming from. Now traders are going to want to step back and see what kind of views we are going to get from the Fed as we get further economic data releases.
Everyone is now going to be looking for clues once again to interest rate hikes. Yellen essentially killed that for now. As long as the economic data stays weak, the Dollar is going to have to now compete with the Euro and Yen to see which will weaken the most. Gold stands to benefit in that environment, but until the metal closes through and above $1400-, it remains in its very broad trading range that has contained it for well over a year.
By the way, aren't you the one who has informed us that we have entered a new and glorious age of Central Banking where all these monetary masters had to do, whenever it looked as if commodity prices were threatening to rise, was to open their mouths and start talking them back down? What happened to Yellen? I guess she did not get the memo yet.
Anyway, having a bit of fun here. Yellen is learning the hard way about a Central Banker telling the truth.
Thanks for the analysis Dan.
DeleteYou're last part about the Fed jawboning or walking their words backwards....I think that's exactly what's going to happen within a week or so if the usual group of Fed heads follows their usual M.O.
Tonights Asian and London market action will be interesting to see if those markets mostly take profits after this nice little brief run-up.
Besides Yellens remarks, I think this Iraq situation (and the subsequent rise in crude) has the potential to keep this rally alive for quite awhile.
Hopefully it dies down but it seems that 1400 years of animosity and violence between Sunni's and Shia's within a huge power vaccuum will more than likely result in an implosion with historic consequences.
At some point in history this sunni/shia "feud" gets mostly settled and the Persians or Arabs come out on top.
If you're SA and you fear/think Iran is building nuclear bombs you're going to want to confront them (and Assad) before they get them and not after.
I think Israel would agree on that.
Dark Purple;
DeleteYes indeed, they have been busy killing each other for centuries. I really think this "let's get the middle East to embrace democracy" crap has made things even worse to be honest. Those dictators were brutal but at least they kept the religious fanatics/terrorists out and kept some semblance of order. Now look at it... what a mess.....
The run up in crude is definitely feeding into the commodity indices moving higher and fostering ideas of price inflation but I really do think that high energy prices are going to nip any nascent recovery that this economy might be experiencing right smack dab in the bud. Nothing hits consumer pocketbooks more directly than energy and food price and cuts into disposable income.
I am going to be keeping a close eye on these equity indices as a result. Stocks might be getting very nervous about rising energy prices coming back to bite the global economy.
Yellen has to walk a line between the natural rise in the dollar that's underway and the political pressure to hold it down for the sake of the economy//exports. She won't be able to hold it down in the long run, we're the cleanest dirty shirt and likely to stay that way, so this is just a taste of the hot money that's coming which will push equities way up. Only a real bull will bring gold and silver along, since they don't generate income. Only when the valuations are criminally insane (presently they're merely insane) will the institutional money start flowing into gold and silver, and those markets are too tiny, Lord knows what will happen then. Outside this temporary aberration it's likely to be business as usual, chasing yield.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad to see no capering about here by gold bulls celebrating the slaughter of the shorts. The shorts will have their day again, soon. Mark was right. I can't tell where he's really coming from, but there's something going on in his noggin. If he's married I imagine life is an adventure for his wife.
Dan,
Can you tell or guess to what extent the collateral problems in China are affecting this?
Borrower 'provides metal', selling it to lender. Lender 'takes' delivery and fully hedges purchase. So non-existent metal (not even paper) has been 'sold' to the borrower and the borrower sells paper to hedge the collateral. Is that right? How do these unwind, and how is it likely to affect the price?
Thanks
Greg
Greg;
DeleteSee my comment to Dom;
The market has a situation where it fears that Copper has been doubled or even tripled counted in China. Authorities move to investigate. Copper sinks on the news. Tell me - did not the "lender" of the copper hedge it? If so, why does copper move lower on the news?
Answer - the market fears that the authorities will put an end to the practice and actually call some of those loans. The "lender" of the money for the loan then has to close the hedge which means buy it back ( the paper short). However, if the loan is closed out, the lender no longer needs the collateral either. In that case, the collateral gets sold once it is no longer useful for obtaining further loans.
The result is extra supply of the metal surfaces on the market.
Keep an eye on the volume of gold that China buys. If their gold buying begins to decrease, you will know why.
I guess the fact that a lot of the actual metal was double and triple hedged doesn't mean anything? Those earlier paper hedges don't need to be covered with actual metal, do they?
Deleteawww. poor baby doesn't like it when his one way trade blows up in his face
ReplyDeletejds;
DeleteSo tell me, what positions do I have on and when did I enter them? You seem to know where I am in the market so please, enlighten us all.
here is a quick note - learn the definition of support and resistance and what traders do when those are violated and come back and try again.
I will admit however that some of the my grain spreads got whacked today so I have now had to adjust those.
I would guess that you went short gold right around the time you were kicked off kind world news for going bearish which was 1/17/14. The price of gold was about $1250. So I would guess you're down a minimum of $70 an ounce. I say a minimum because I'm sure you've been whipped in and out of you're position a few times since then. However, I'm guessing your big loses were from the end of '11 until January of 2014 because you were bullish that entire time. Sound about right, genius.
Deletejds;
Deleteyou are a bigger fool than I thought! I have been bearish gold since it broke below $1530 as any good technician would be and have been fortunately able to profit from playing the short side of this market.
Within the bear market there have been counter-trend rallies which have been perfectly tradeable although they require one to be very quick and very nimble.
If you did the buy and hold thing on gold and have been doing that for years, then no one need inform you that you have lost a helluva lot of money, not only in gold but by missing out on once-in-lifetime opportunities in other sectors. That is a simple fact, like it or not.
I always get a kick out of these rallies because it brings all the cockroaches scurrying out to crow how right they have been while they conveniently forgot to look at the charts and note the collapse from $1900 to below $1200 in gold and from $50 in silver to below $19.
I am glad for the long suffering gold bulls that their shares are doing better but please spare us traders, who move in and out of the market, your stories about how wise you have been. The proof of the pudding is in the eating and for traders, it is in the size of their trading accounts.
One can make money by either being long or by being short. It does not matter which as long as one is on the correct side of that market. That is why I write here - to help teach others who want to learn how to read markets.
I have to laugh at your ignorance of my trading. You can believe whatever you want to believe as arguing with fools is a waste of time.
And by the way - for your info - I would not return to KWN if they begged me to come back. That is a perfect example of what is wrong with so many in the gold community. They would rather live on sensationalism and wild theories than learn to respect market and price action.
Have a pleasant day and by the way, please do keep all the rest of the readers here, including myself, exactly what positions I have on and when I enter those trades and exit them. I would love to know what I am doing and who better than you to inform me!
It's a great day when the gold and silver shorts get their ass handed to them. About time.
ReplyDeleteHi Dan
ReplyDeleteZero Hedge have been predicting this rally, have a look at this article where they predicted the unwind of China's shadow banking system would result in surging PM prices on high volume:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-09/bronze-swan-lands-goldman-explains-how-china-commodity-unwind-will-happen
and their follow up today:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-19/silver-surges-3-month-highs-china-ponzi-unwinds
Essentially it speculated that these CCFD's were the main reason for the smash in gold in 2013 (along with other reasons of course) and that the unwind of these positions this year will likely cause gold to re-gain a lot of this lost ground, perhaps back to 2012 levels in fairly short order. The article is quite long but well worth a read, certainly not some lame "conspiracy theory" in my opinion.
Cheers.
Dominic;
DeleteThe China situation, if anything, is negative for the price of gold, just like it is negative for the price of copper.
That news has NOTHING to do with this rally. If it did, it would only be seen in the gold price moving north. It is easy to refute that nonsensical argument because it is the ENTIRE COMMODITY SECTOR that is moving higher. Did you not see the chart I posted just this morning of the GSCI?
So, based on the rally in gold, we are to now believe that Zerohedge "predicted" it. Come on already Dom. Did China double count and triple count soybeans? Did they double count and triple count Corn. Maybe they did so in the hogs and cattle as well. I will bet that they even rehypotheticed Sugar because it too went up today.
Perhaps you see why I disdain ZeroHedge as part of the problem in the gold community. They never met a story that they could not spin to be bullish gold.
Look at the European currencies today Dom... that is really what you need to focus on. The British Pound just made a nearly 5 year high against the Dollar.
Crude oil broke out above resistance at $105. ETc..
ZH has an theory looking for a question.
The reason gold has been in a bear market since it broke down below $1530 has been because the markets did not fear inflation, with the Dollar stronger and the commodity sector moving lower.
That is now in question and that is why the metals are responding. It really is that simple. Keep the explanations simple my friend.
Dominic; Zerohedge and Spellcheck Armstrong make predictions by the bucketload day in and day out; I would not hitch my horse to their wagons
DeleteSteve they try and ,look under the bonnet and offer alternatives to the mainstream presstitutes. They've already made some great calls in relation to high frequency trading, trader manipulation, not to mention LIBOR years before that scandal was publicised.
DeleteThey aren't always right, no one is but sometimes they're light years ahead.
The precious metals market is far more complicated than most people give it credit which is why making calls either way is almost impossible in the short term. Dan tells us what the markets are currently saying but for the long term trends i like to look beyond the short terms schizophrenic nature of the markets. I still firmly believe there was far more than normal commodty bear market selling last year when gold dropped almost 30%. We all know the Chinese want to buy as much gold as possible, given their resources why wouldn't they do everything in their power to buy this gold for the lowest price possible? In my opinion the drop was a mixture of a deflationary market, central banks selling (look at the massive drop reported in the bank of England;s gold holdings last year - over 1000 tons) and manipulation by the Chinese.
We'll see how far this "unwind" goes if that is what is happening.
We'll see if Dan is right or ZH is right if the metals significantly outperform the sector as this unfolds. Part of this may also be sovereign debt concerns (Argentina, France, Austria, Belgium, at the moment, the rest in due time).
DeleteDan I appreciate what you're saying but answer me this: have you actually read the ZH article in detail? If so what part of their analysis do you disagree with? They predicted that this unwind in China will result in lower copper/iron ore prices and higher PM prices and go in to a great deal of detail explaining why. If you disagree with their analysis that's fine but what part of it don't you agree with? Sometimes I get the impression you lump any of their articles into the gold fanatics column and don't give them the credit they sometimes deserve. Did they not point out the LIBOR scam years before anyone else was talking about it? In fact if you check their track history they have made a number of excellent calls over the years.
DeleteSince the CCFD probe begun, gold and silver are significantly higher and copper and iron ore lower which is exactly what Zero Hedge predicted would happen.
I'm not saying other factors aren't at play here. I agree with you that the sentiment has shifted to a more inflationary one which is why a number of commodities are up. What I am saying is that this situation in China could well be adding fuel to the fire here.
You have a wide audience and like to speak of macro economic events. Surely it's worth your time having a closer look at the ZH article? As I already stated, copper and iron ore are down (and have hardly made any significant gains today have they) where as PM's are up significantly since the issues in China began.
I love simple explanaations i just most of the time the workd is more complicated than we'd like it to be :-).
One other question, if and when you play gold more from the long side again will you be investing in the miners, or more the commodity itself?
Dom;
DeleteThanks for the follow up - I have made reference to that article in some previous answers in the posted comments sections in response to some various inquiries.
My point is real simple - one cannot say that a hedged product is going to result in one type of market reaction and another of the same nature is going to result in the exact opposite.
What the market focuses on is the extra supply of metal that might be finding its way back into the market if those loans are called or if the authorities shut the system down. At that point, the need for the metal subsides because those who are using it as collateral for loans, can no longer play the game.
You have to understand that in China there are only so many ways that would-be borrowers can pledge collateral. Metals are used because they are easy to liquidate and lenders prefer that over housing which is an entirely different nature.
My problem with Zerohedge goes back a long way Dom because it is that site, along with some others such as KWN which was behind the constant rash of one wild theory after another why gold was going to soar to the heavens. Whether it was backwardation claptrap, negative GOFO rates, JP Morgan cornering gold on the long side, Comex warehouses running out of gold, etc., I have heard them all and have tried my best to discredit them so as to keep the unsuspecting and the novices from swallowing that stuff and leading them to their financial detriment.
Keep in mind that ZH is always bullish gold, no matter what. I find that intellectually dishonest. First of all, they have a vested interest in continuing to preach to the faitfhful because their income is derived from site ads and per clicks. Anyone who does that is suspect in my view if they are always on the same side of a market.
Dom;
Deletecontinued
If you notice I am neither permanently bullish nor permanently bearish. I am a trader that reads the market, reacts to the sentiment and tries to understand it so as to profit. I have no vested interest in which direction gold goes nor do I derive my income from anything except trading.
In other words, I do not have the LUXURY of sitting on the sidelines prognosticating one wild theory after another, especially when it is always on the same side. The only way I make money is if I am right about the direction the market. It is as simple as that my friend.
Sometimes I am correct, sometimes I am not; When I am incorrect, I recognize it quickly and move to safety or actually will reverse and go with the flow. I hope you are understanding where I am coming from - it is a matter of being sick and tired of hucksters and wild-eyed armchair sideliners who do not make their living IN the market as I do but OFF of the market and off of others. Like I have said before, _ challenge them to remove every single fee generation ad on their sites -accept no revenue for advertising whatsoever and FORCE them to actually trade and take positions IN the market based on each and every wild theory they constantly regale us with and watch and see just how long any of them would be around to plague us. They would be long gone by now, every damned last one of them.
When it comes to gold, no, I would not buy most mining shares. I do not trust management to be competent. Any good mining company should have sound technicians who understand how markets act and why they behave the way that they do to get them into sound hedging programs to protect their profits. These guys get all bulled up when prices are soaring and when the "to the moon" predictions are flying and as a result, they get no downside risk protection and watch their profits go down the drain.
If I want leveraged exposure to gold, I can use the futures market. Others, who do not use futures can use the ETF and margin it if they want that. But buying a gold mining share because I want leveraged exposure to gold strikes me as near insanity.There are only a small number of gold mining companies that I would even consider putting money into at this point after watching their behavior and management over the last decade.
All the best,
Dan
Can you share some of the miners you think are sound?
DeleteGreg;
DeleteI am a commodities guy first and foremost and thus am not the best when it comes to equities but I can tell you how I choose those few mining companies that I own or would own.
As a chart guy, I always look first and foremost at the charts. That tells me the picture.
When the sector is moving lower as a whole, I look for those companies whose stock holds up better than the average. When the sector is moving higher, I look for those that are outperforming the sector as a whole.
How do we do this? By comparing the particular stock to the HUI. Note that I do not like investing in junior miners because I do not need the leveraged exposure to gold - I can get that through the futures market. I like mid-tiers that have proven reserves and low debt. So I take their stock chart and compare its performance to the HUI and see how it fares in both up market and down markets.
Once those are narrowed down, then I look at the fundamentals of the company. by the way, I like dividends at my age so that is a factor but that obviously requires a company that knows how to generate PROFITS, which is the key to any stock to be honest.
No sure this helps but it is my approach... Once a chart guy - always a chart guy!
thanks Dan - what is your favorite site for compiling/comparing these charts?
DeleteGreg;
DeleteI run those comparisons on my technical analysis software. I am not aware of any sites that offer those things although you might possibly be able to use the finance.yahoo site to try it.
You can create ratio charts on stockcharts.com
DeleteI could never stomach the sight of Yellen or Greenspan. Having a brain is becoming so painful isn't it?.
ReplyDeleteDan - listen to yourself man - you sound just like the gold bugs - except the other side of the coin. I wonder what they (the gold bugs) will be nick-naming you now!
ReplyDeleteArthur;
DeleteWhy? Because I am unhappy with Yellen? Macro funds make my life difficult in a host of markets Arthur because they trade independently of fundamentals and that produces wild swings in price which are generally unpredictable. One has to deal with those and try to react to them but when you have index funds moving money into the commodity sector it clouds the picture and the short term gyrations more difficult to anticipate.
Would you like an example? Yesterday Feeder Cattle were locked LIMIT DOWN. Today they are locked LIMIT UP! Some of the buying in there came in because hot money flows hit the entire livestock sector today. Yesterday the fundamentals looked iffy. Today, the fundamentals now look wonderful. No - what happened is fund money came into the markets and produced a huge shift in the order flow.
That is simply a fact. Notice I am not saying anything about "evil manipulaters" working for the government. I am stating that Yellen threw everyone a curve ball and forced a swift, abrupt shift in inflation sentiment because of her comments. What is the big deal about that.
HOnestly however, I have been called everything from the antichrist to the son of belial to beyond. What do I care? Maybe I will just trade and go my thing and get my life back without having to deal with this site. It pays poorly, that is for sure. Then again, If I filled it with lots of ads, I could make some real money off of everyone instead of being the poor sap that I am and writing and teaching for free.
I would hate to see you go.
DeleteBut I would love to see you make more money, post the ads for God's sake. If people don't like them they don't have to click.
Try not to let it get you down. There's no shortage of angry, sniveling people out there.
DeleteSome clickable ad's and a donate button wouldn 't be such a bad idea imho.
You don't seem like the type of person who is going to change their outlook and analysis in order to cater to a narrow-minded clientele.
I guess a lot of margin calls in Gold and Silver futures will be going out tomorrow with payment due by 12 noon Eastern time. I was in this boat once, decades ago and it was painful and stressful.
ReplyDeleteWolf;
DeleteYes indeed buddy - lots and lots of those... not only in the metals, but elsewhere through the sector.
I really do wonder at this point if the Fed was getting worried about a falling gold price and decided to do something about it. They cannot have the gold price going nowhere and attain their inflation target of 2%. They need higher prices although if I had to guess, they do not want those higher prices in the crude oil and gasoline markets. They want cheap energy because higher energy prices will tend to have the exact opposite effect on the commodity - they will curtail growth.
Oh my God. The Fed is manipulating the price to the upside. You goldbugs make me sick.
Delete"All I can say is our phone has been red-hot. Equities are rapidly becoming the new international gold and safe-haven."
ReplyDeleteWonder if Armstrong will change his forecast on gold - if he's sticking to $950 then this move today should be one of the greatest head fakes in gold market histories.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/06/19/sovereign-debt-crisis-beginning/
The FED will be happy today FIAT just deflated against Gold, remember the US needs a cheaper $ to pay back debt. It,s nice to have the Government supporting a higher Gold price for the few while main street is stuck with FIAT junk. Hold and accumulate metal with trailing paper hedges just in case the horse bolts. Enjoy the ride.
ReplyDeleterlm;
Deletethe idea of hedging ones metal holdings is an excellent strategy and one I hope some of the readers here at the site are employing. It cushions downside moves while proper managing of those hedges allows one to move into and out of them based on the technical price action. It sure as hell beats buy and buy and buy and hold on.
A comex gold contract is 100 ounces. For every block of 100 ounces that a person owns, they can use a single contract for that purpose. Some of us here have been working hedges with good success since gold broke down below $1530. It is a bit tricky reading some of these violent rallies that have regularly occurred but if you own physical metal, you are okay on the rallies especially if you hedge that metal when the technicals deteriorate and the price looks to make another drop lower.