I therefore find it fascinating in going over this week's Commitment of Traders report and discovering something there which fits with what I regard as the relatively confused, uncertain, and mixed sentiment out there among investors when it comes to assessing the state of the global economy.
Take a look at the following chart and note the positioning of the Hedge Fund category and the Other Large Reportables Category. I have circled their respective chart lines.
The hedge fund category, which has now moved to a net long position in the red metal, are 18,787 net long. The large reportables are -24,183 net short. These two categories are the BIG SPECULATIVE TRADERS. The large reportables can include CTA's, CPO's, and other large independent traders such as floor locals or private traders who have large enough position sizes that they are required to be reported.
One of these groups of powerful speculators are going to be proven very wrong. It is not too often that you see this sort of setup in a market in which the large speculators are positioned in opposite directions in fairly equal strength.
This setup will resolve itself in one of two ways;
1.) A bullish or bearish surprise on the fundamental front will force a big round of short covering or a big round of long liquidation resulting in a sharp move higher or lower depending on which side is wrong and is forced out
2.) A grinding type of range trade in which both sides can find data that provides fundamental support to their positioning with the result that any exodus by one side is matched by an exodus from the other. Or, any build from the one side is matched by a build on the other side.
Either way this is going to be fun to watch.
Which way is Dr. Copper going to go? Stay tuned and we will all find out.
By the way, the Hedge fund category has just moved to the Net Short side in the silver market once again. Here we have a similar development in silver as we do above in Copper, which again, is not that common. The hedge funds have been moving away from their net long positioning and reducing that exposure as they become progressively more bearish on the metal's prospects. The large reportables on the other hand, have been moving building a larger net long position as they become more upbeat on its potential.
This is the reason that the silver market continues to be stuck in a tight range between $20 on the top and $19 on the bottom. Speculative forces are not in agreement. At the risk of further provoking the silver bugs, this has nothing to do with governmental conspiracies to suppress the price of silver. When the specs are in unison, the market will move in that direction that they are agreed upon. For now, it is stuck in a range going nowhere because of this lack of unanimity among the large speculative forces.
We'll see which side wins in this market.
Lastly, here is the gold COT chart. Not much to say about it this week except for this -those who keep talking "contrarian" in gold claiming how poor sentiment is for gold among speculators as a reason to get long the gold market, seem oblivious to the fact that all three groups of speculators, whether that be the Hedge Funds, the Large Reportables and the Small Specs, remain as Net Longs in the gold market. If these guys are bearish, I am not seeing it.
In spite of the fact that the reported holdings of GLD continue to drop, in spite of the fact that the HUI and the GDXJ continues to stagnate, specs are net long in gold. I have said it before and will repeat it; gold had BETTER NOT violate chart support by closing below $1280 or we are going to see a big surge in long side liquidation and that worries me as there is sufficient fuel for a sharp drop lower in the price of gold IF these specs are forced out. So far geopolitical concerns involving Ukraine are holding this market up but if interest rates here in the US start creeping higher once again, alongside either a rising Dollar/falling Euro, gold is going to be vulnerable.
Lots of uncertainties I will admit which however will require us all to be vigilant to monitor price action in the days and weeks ahead.
The Ukraine election result and subsequent mayhem (hopefully not) should make for an interesting Sunday night market opening.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update Dan.
Time for you to kick back, crack a beer open (like I just did) and enjoy the long weekend.
Have a great weekend everybody!
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ReplyDeleteThe "Simpleton" strategy is to simply track the performance of the DBC ETF.
ReplyDeleteIt's been looked in a bear channel for 2 1/2 years now after the rebound spike off the 2009 lows.
It is more evidence that despite the fact that the economy is improving very slowly, inflation risk is zero right now, meaning that the Fed "has more work to do" to get the jobs market going and get small business owners more confident about the future.
In the event that DBC starts breaking out of its down channel, then all bets are off and we could start seeing 3% inflation soon.
The wild card is meat and grains, if they collapse, then the bear market in the CRB Index resumes, providing an even greater tax cut for the consumer, and giving the Fed more ammo to crank up QE to spur growth.
After all, the printing of trillions the last 5 years will go down as the greatest economic miracle ever seen, and future recessionary forces will be fought tooth and nail with the same strategy. Print even more money.
Yeah, miracle is really an appropriate word for what has been happening since 2009 lows. We need another, much bigger one, to repeat it for the next five years. Lets reconvene in 2019 and decide at that time. I'm sure the charts will catch up, so we shouldn't have a problem deciphering what has happened.
DeleteDBC is in a three year decline. The volatility is just starting to damp out. Why do you think this is such a great indicator?
DeleteDr. Dan,
ReplyDeleteTo what do you attribute the difference in sentiment towards silver between the two big players? And do you think silver will follow gold generally, and if there's a divergence, what is likely to cause it and which way do you think the GSR will go?
Thanks,
Greg
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DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteIt's Monday morning - please bear with me while I get this right :-)
DeleteThe last major bimetallic currency system was operated by the UK, and even today The Royal Mint produces legal tender Silver and Gold coins, which can be encashed in any high street bank. The same mint, the same currency, the same bank
OK, the recent and new £20 coins contain 1/2 oz of silver and cost £20 (including postage). http://www.royalmint.com/pre-register/2014-20-pound-coin Of that, the metal is worth around £5, and the "promise to pay the bearer on demand" fiat bit makes up the balance. If we scale this up to 1oz for ease of comparison, £40 = 1 ounce of Silver + £30 of fiat, making a fiat promise-to-pay worth 3 times as much as an ounce of Silver. With me so far?
Now, for the past 200 years the Royal Mint has also produced a 1/4 Gold coin, called a Sovereign http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_%28British_coin%29 , face value £1, and currently costing around £200. Scale that up to 1oz for comparison purposes, and it costs around £800 - more or less all of which is attributable to the value of the metal content. 4 x promises-to-pay £1 are trivial compared to the value of 1 oz of Gold
So, let's recap: 1oz of Silver is worth far less than a fiat promise-to-pay, whereas 1oz of Gold is worth several hundred times more. Forget what you might hear about "historical" rations according to Sir Isaac Newton or Plato, try and arb the geological ratio of physical metals in the earth if you can find a way to do so, but right here, right now, on Planet Earth, there is a real world Royal Mint where you can go to a real world high street Bank and get real-world fiat money to buy real world goods and services which says the fair-value ratio is a very large number indeed
Look at the historical charts going back to 1971 and you will see that the equilibrium GSR is in at least the 60's, and at the current stage of the economic cycle (i.e. the "flat tyre & the chain has come off" phase) the ratio is as likely to continue to rise into the 80's as it it is to fall back below 40
The quickest way to make a small fortune in Silver right now is to start off with a big one and wait
Hmmm... For Copper, hedge funds are bullish and large reportables are bearish. For Silver their positions are just the opposite. Could one deduce then that neither category of speculators is expecting silver to act as an industrial metal where both metals would behave similarly and silver would follow the moves in copper? Or could it be that both categories are hedging one metal against the other?
ReplyDeleteHmmm.. I get your first point, but I wonder why neither would see it as an industrial metal. What are your thoughts?
DeleteHow would the hedging work? (Thanks)
No idea what the speculators are thinking or why they are positioned they way they are. The hedging comment was only because the hedge funds are net short silver and net long cooper. Based on the reports Dan posted, it appears both categories are positioning in opposite directions for both metals and to each other.
Deleteyes Trinity, I read your comment after posting my comments below, shouldn't have :) Same remark here.
DeleteNo problem Hubert. It is curious question...
Deletemost xlnt blog! the Eccl. 10 above reminds me of game of thrones haha!
ReplyDeletegold may get more volatile with futures op-ex next week and all traders, except those standing for June delivery, have to rolled out by the end of Comex trading next Thursday.
WSJ had a gold positive story last week, saying the world is running out of gold and how all the gold in the world could fit in a 60' cube. some commentators see the cost of production in gold at $1200, so that could be a good floor. of course a great bottom might be made by going under the cost of production for a time.
ags are closed til monday nite, with commentators saying dec corn can't go much below $4.65 as that is the insurance guarantee. wheat has no support as global pricing is still below and very little global wheat is moving. july soybeans didn't give up at $15 yet, lack of cargoes moving out of s. america a reason for last week, but commentators say by the start of 2015 the world will have the highest supply of soybeans ever!
cheers!
Well, not much of a pm or currency response to the elections. Stks starting a freckle better, so we shall be patient.
ReplyDeleteSteve,
ReplyDeleteAs usual, Ukraine a non-event, the bull market in stocks keeps powering higher.
All those 150+ articles posted at jsmineset proved to be a complete waste of time.
The CIGA's got "bird flued" again, LOL....
it has been so long that I have even forgot what the hell ciga stands for over there?
DeleteComrade is gold addicted?
DeleteSteve..
ReplyDeleteAsia just opened, gold and silver down,, platinum and palladium up. The economic boom continues as industrial metals are vastly outperforming the "safe havens".
Mark, u r right, as plat and pall lead the metals. Major resistance though upstairs on pall @ 850.
ReplyDeleteFront National (anti european party) first party in France for European elections with 25% votes.
ReplyDeleteUkip (N.Farage) same in UK with 27%.
That may create some movement...
Maybe the stress of paying the weak sisters bills is causing a rethink of the EU.
DeleteIt's many things, nurtured by economic problems and a global discontent, I think. Lack of faith in the traditional BS alternate parties in power since 1970. Interesting to compare with the rise of nazi party in the 1930s.
DeleteI'm not comparing their leaders to Hitler at all, just saying that the same causes create the same effects. BS political traditional leaders, disabused public opinion who don't know for whom to vote in order to solve their problems.
Attitude of French government towards Ukraine, Syria, etc... looking like a vassal of US policy more than anything else is also nurturing this feeling.
Front National's Marine Lepen attitude towards Russia is also in opposition to MSM who wants to depict Russia as the eternal enemy.
See here :
http://english.mgimo.ru/new2/180-marine-le-pen-addresses-mgimo-students
Distrust in the EU government as a whole.
Distrust of its institutions, and lack of real democratic representation.
So overal, many small streams create large rivers...Let's see what happens in 1936, sorry 2016.
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DeleteThank you Hubert
DeleteHi Dan,
ReplyDeleteBtw, I noticed a funny thing in your post : hedge funds are long silver, but start to short silver. Reverse is true for large reportables.
So, they oppose the destiny of silver and copper in their bets.
So far, you reminded us that silver is quite correlated with copper in terms of prices.
Is this positioning a short-term anomaly?
As it resolves itself, do you expect for once that silver and copper prices will not take the same direction?
Thanks :)
Edit : I meant hedge funds are long copper, of course.
DeletePoint of view of M.A about gold and silver demand in Asia.
ReplyDeletehttp://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/21/demand-for-gold-in-china-india-collapses-by-55/
The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 416cr in the cash segment on Friday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of Rs. 135cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.Bullion Tips
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWell, the hysterical doomsayers over at King World News are at it again with their fantastic headlines.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, ES futures are still sitting at all-time, world record, lifetime highs, months after KWN posted numerous Armageddon headlines warning of an imminent epic market collapse.
Basically, ES futures were essentially unflinched throughout the Ukraine episode, all that chain posting of "Russia this", "Putin that", "West vs. East", yada, yada, yada was a stupendous waste of energy.
gold 1310 …. oh wait …. all under control now … thats ok go on …
ReplyDeleteoh well , so there go all the stop and limit orders of the day …. they really are crooks … who is going to touch this shit ?? imagine you had your order to buy limit at say 1285 with a stop at 1280 … !! you have just been framed !! also the poor devil who wanted to sell short at 1300 with a stop at 1305 !! boom ! thats how you do it … forget robbing banks we are in the 21st century , and if you get caught … thats ok 500 dollar ticket and off you go ….. unbelievable !
ReplyDeleteAs per Al Jazeera, Ukraine attacked Donetsk's rebels. They are losing no time. Putin has apparently sacrificed these poor people after using them as pawns in a diabolical chess game. He's not stirring, but avowing to keep the dialogue with the new president. So much for the WWIII scenario and the Russian strategy that will break the back of the West. I don't know why so many people are cheering for our own back to be broken.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, Ukraine seems like an almost done deal. We can refocus now on Syria and Iran, as cued by the media.
nice days job in 10 minutes …. just show up for the close …. haha , and the open , and the close ! 10 minutes in the morning and 10 minutes in the eve … when i grow up I want to be a commodities trader like that , the hell with ivy league college … I say … SHOW ME THE MONEY ! NOW ! hahah … total road kill …
ReplyDelete"when i grow up"
Deleteno sign of that happening any time soon
Apparently the Indian people have elected a new government likely to free up gold taxes, this may not be their top priority, but could be on the cards at some point. Apparently the new man voted in charge in the Ukraine has over 50% of the vote, so a re-vote not necessary. He's a billionaire 'choco' industrialist with a lot of political experience. The plus is he's not likely to be corruptible from small change handouts either.
ReplyDeleteIntellect as an Art-form
ReplyDeleteThe setting: any given Public Holiday, any given Market. Birds are singing in the Spring breeze, the first Summer flowers are breaking out in a riot of colour, Hillary is in a secure mental facility, and all is Good with the World
and then, suddenly, as if 'twere a Bolt from the Blue, Gold spikes up $20, and then is gone, as if it had never been. Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Is it just some tit pressing the wrong button? We may never know! But that's not going to stop us turning on the Cartel-o-Phone, and crying from the rooftops:
That's gold saying "I'm fed up of this shit!"
Then the algos stepped in...
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/407922#comment-407922
It's the evil algos, you see, who brought Gold back down below the "cap"; they had nothing to do with the entirely normal and not-at-all-manipulated $20 spike upwards, they were the evil villains who smacked it back down again, the evil bastards! Ponzi! Paper claims! Registered Inventory! Bah, Humbug!
There is no helping these people, who are clearly only able to interpret whatever goes on around them in terms of their own preconceived schema
This looks different to me than when it goes the other way. Here there's a ramping up then a jump, and a relatively immediate and full correction to the downside.
DeleteIn contrast, when it drops a lot in a short period it's usually instantaneous, and the repair back to the starting price takes hours. Thoughts?
FAT FINGER - peanuts liquidity after the bell on a Public Holiday
Deleteno, no, wait! This is the Evil Empire at work again.....
If the spike had been down it would have held for hours, as usual. the upspike disappeared immediately.
DeleteYou're outspoken. Let's see if you can back it up. How about finding a chart where a fat finger down is immediately erased by a fat finger up?
Gregory - see the following;;
Deletehttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2014-05-01T00:00:00-07:00&updated-max=2014-05-03T11:27:00-07:00&max-results=38&start=31&by-date=false
Gregory;
Deletehere is the specific link...
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/05/ukraine-stirs-safe-haven-plays.html
These charts look like what I was detailing above, a smackdown with a long recovery period (hours as opposed to minutes). I've seen the pattern on that gold chart a dozen times in the last few months - instant drop, hours to recover and recovery right back to the market level. It seems like in this case, the only way to explain it geopolitically would be a big event that was immediately reported as false.
DeleteI'm really anxious to hear your thoughts on the opposing bets in silver an copper: what do you think each group is seeing that might explain their behavior? (another Q from another reader on this above). Thanks Dan
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DeleteYou're RIGHT, Goddammit!
DeleteJeez, Greg, I have to hand it to you - I don't know how you spotted that, but there are indeed several hours between 05:35 (when the manipulative smash occurred) and 05:55 when all the ill-gotten losses were recouped. Brilliant! Simply Brilliant! It only goes to show what a low single-digit IQ can achieve if you know how to use it in anger!
From Dan's second link: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-shfnHcuaQvg/U2O3Dz8JorI/AAAAAAAAFmQ/JToaG-fpsUY/s1600/Chart20140502081715.png
apologies - I had a Greg-like moment there - here is the correct link - http://2.bp.blogspot.com/--OcbD1l4t_s/U2Oz8v-i89I/AAAAAAAAFl8/KlolfDyb_js/s1600/Chart20140502064540.png
DeleteAnyone who puts in stops in the metals futures markets has learned exactly nothing over the past 5 years. You are just itching to get trimmed. That doesn't mean it's a big gubment conspiracy. It just means that's how these markets operate, and if you don't like it trade somewhere or somehow else. Don't be a frickin idiot.
ReplyDeletei didn't say it was conspiracy …. i say it is a fact , somewhat , futures went up 30 bucks and then down 50 from the top to end flat … am I lying ? I mean it is there for everyone to see , the market is flat for two weeks and then that … at the close , and I also said that a bunch of muppets got raped , not me fortunately , don't be such a smart arse …
DeleteNo, no, I'm not saying YOU said it was a conspiracy. Wasn't really talking to you directly at all. But you do see plenty of stuff all the time all over the web, when the stops get taken out, and people lose money, all kinds of bitching and moaning about how it's all rigged, blah, blah, blah. I'm just saying, in general, people should stop their bitching and just play in a different sandbox.
DeleteEric, that is a risibly stupid suggestion; people the world over have been forcibly put into armlocks and physically compelled to invest in Gold rather than post office savings accounts or bank deposits. They have no choice in the matter because, remember, "Gold is the only true money" and "it is a store of value and they can't print any more" and "two legs good, four legs better!" and and and ponzi and fiat and it's not fair, ok, it's just not fair
Deletelol.
DeleteI guess that's the point. People complain and complain and complain about the metals and miners markets, everything from crooked market makers, to criminal naked shorts, to criminal managements, to Big Gubment Evil Doer Manipulators, and yet they still keep on banging their head against the same wall, over and over and over.
If you really believe it's as bad as that, then GET THE HELL OUT!
Go try your hand at preserving your purchasing power and protecting your family in any of a dozen other markets. How many times has Dan mentioned the ongoing bull market in energy stocks? It's not like it's a secret. Fracking is all over the news. The charts are there for all to see.
If there is money laying on the floor, go pick some of it up, don't just sit there complaining about crooked metals markets all day and all night.
OK, rant off and good night everyone.
Postscript
Deleteunderlying all the Goldbug fervour - and even more so the Silver Cult - is a groundswell of envy and a sense of entitlement; none of these people who would gleefully see the Evil Banksters swinging from lampposts actually want to see contemporary society overthrown - it's just that they want their turn in the Porsche, with the glamourous bimbo girlfriend and the champagne lifestyle, rather than having their noses perpetually rubbed in the dirt by the other guy
This is a seductively potent suggestion to a receptively gullible mind - "this is your chance to GET EVEN and, when Justice is done (as it surely will be, soon) then you will be rewarded and, more importantly, those whose lifestyle you covet will be PUNISHED!"
If you were a disillusioned blue-collar worker with bills to pay, an impatient wife, and strictly limited economic prospects due to whatever is in the news this week, this would appeal to you as something akin to a Lottery ticket with an ego-kicker attached, because if/when Silver does go "to da moon", your dreamed-of riches will not be attributable to chance, privilege or some lucky happenstance, but to that hidden-under-a-bushel wisdom you had so carefully nurtured all along, whilst all around had written you off as a redneck loser. Venegeance! Or, as bullion dealers call it, "Another sucker!"
There has been some commentary about emotional attachment to losing trades, and I think there is much truth in this. But it surely transcends emotion and the realm of Hope, and strays wildly into not just Walter Mitty territory, but into outright infatuation, to the point where short-term price movements become life-defining events in terms of validating or challenging one's entire psychological makeup. The notion that Silver might not be "coiling, coiling, coiling" and about to spring upwards is an existential threat to these Folks' perception of who they are, and what is Good & Right in this world (i.e them winning for a change)
You can learn a lot from basic tribal psychology; experiments have been conducted where someone from "Tribe A" is given a windfall $100 and told to divide it "fairly" between his Tribe and Tribe B. The typical allocation is 80:20 in favour of the 'home' tribe, because the other lot had done nothing "to deserve it"
Bankers and anyone in a fast car has done nothing to "deserve" it; in contrast, getting laid off from the tyre shop and having a nagging wife and 3 hungry kids to feed qualifies you for a priority ticket in life's lottery, just to get even: you "deserve" it, after all
Eric , you are completely right , thats my point … only the big guns and a few dare devils whomever they are or represent are left playing this casino , I accept that … now , is this suppose to be a the way to price discovery ? I guess it is one of the stages towards it I hope … but it doesnt sound very fair to the small guy , I guess it is the nature of the beast
DeletePostBrit,
DeleteThat is a tremendous post, with tons of truth. This is why the gold/silverbug population is so heavily skewed toward the "grumpy old man" demographic. Every perceived wrong, accumulated over a lifetime, will suddenly, magically, be righted when the metals finally go to da moon. Vindication! And THEN they'll be sorry! bwah, ha, ha....
And that's why they stick with it, and stick with it, and dig in deeper, and deeper, long after any sensible person would have left for greener pastures.
Here is a no-lose bet for you.
DeleteOver on TF Metals, the Man Himself has just gone on record talking up the Austrian Government audit of Gold held in London vaults: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/407946#comment-407946 and I quote
"the "gold is gone, all 26MM ounces of it, shipped to China".
Now, here's the one-way bet; IF the Audit gives a clean Bill of Health, all the Gold is there, none of it has gone to China, THEN I am willing to bet you a dime to a dollar that NOT ONE WORD will be said along the lines of "Oh, ok, maybe we were wrong, maybe it isn't all a big smoke & mirrors conspiracy after all"
Far from it - the question is being asked about why, if they are confident the Gold is there, they have to conduct an Audit? (You see - there's the proof! No need to conduct an Audit, because the Gold isn't there!) and you can bet your bottom dollar that, if the Audit comes back clean, it will all be lies or - as per the latest meme - "a Potemkin Scheme" - http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/407933#comment-407933
Heads you're a Luser, Tails you're a gullible sucker, so Keep Stackin' "at these fire-sale prices"
PostcolonialBrit:
DeleteAre you really a brit? Because I'm going to take the mickey out of you.
I got about one sentence into your psychoanalysis above and had to quit reading. You are tedious. And your snarkiness ruins your credibility. You can make the same points without coming across as a jerk. I think this is happening because _you_ are emotionally invested in the argument. In short you're boring, emotionally stunted, and boring. Did I mention boring? If I mention it a few dozen more times in a row will you get, by example, how mind-numbingly trite and redundant and boring you are?
Your consistent snarkiness belies a meanness. I've been relatively kind. If you reply with venom I'm going to take the piss out of you to the extent allowed by decorum here. I don't like you, don't make me prove it.
" I don't like you, don't make me prove it".
DeleteGreg - you made me laugh so much, a little bit of pee came out
I thought it was kinda funny and insightfull as well. Its pretty much hod the gold bugs think.
DeleteWhen the angered reactions to Mark and the likes stop, we may have a capitulation bottom.
Zhang Lan,
DeleteRead some of this post before you speak. It's been a non-stop litany of obnoxious comments from the brit. Some of us are trying to learn something.
But he's on 'your side', so not only are you not objective, you have to speak out. I don't like you either, save your snide comments (like 'get a life') for someone else.
Anger isn't the result of substantive disagreement, at least for sane people. My anger is directed at childishness.
Great interview with Jim Rickards on currency and gold... He references documented proof of manipulation, I'll leave it for you to do your own due diligence and decide...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgPyWLr20jk
Very good interview in my opinion, TheGilliom. It is interesting to me how the crowd here is becoming as anti-gold, pro-stocks dogmatic, as KWN is pro-gold, anti-stock. the opinions are rising to a religions fervor, where anyone investing in gold and being short the stocks is ridiculed and "yelled" at. I figured, people must be talking their own books and forming the opinions based on their investments and not the other way around. Funny how that works.
DeleteWell put Abraxas
DeleteI have not visited this site for some time and for good reason.
The same old posts from people who are using this as a stump to vent their hatred for certain gold gurus...not that I totally disagree.. but hey....my message is...get a life..move on.
The DOW will go to infinity, the American consumer is forever..blah blah blah...whatever, if these people are so confident then why keep posting the same nauseating message ?
You are right Abraxas, they are worse than the people they so despise.
Hi Dan,
DeleteI think by now, anyone who still pretends he didn't understand the message you meant to sent is a hopeless cause.
Some people will indeed pretend you said something else and insist that they don't understand.
Don't lose time anymore, don't lose your nerves, personally I think you've been crystal clear and that those who don't understand by now do it on purpose to piss you off.
Let's move on because majority of readers here are just like me and appreciate the rationale of your posts.
Ignore the noise of this forum, just as you ignore the noise of the market.
Btw, there are just as many stupid people on the gold bug community than on the anti gold community. Stupidity is a quite widespread quality. Bashing is a mark of stupidity, big ego and little humility. Feeling offended by bashers and reacting to them is even more stupid. Anyone who is here to demonstrate how much he is right and how silly are the others is stupid.
DeleteBut the utmost level of stupidity is to still be unable to read and understand the posts, but instead to interpret them the way it suits them. The world is separated by two categories, hateful bashers with big egos, and hateful victims of bashers with big ego as well who answer on the same mode.
Once more, ignore the noise and post constructive content.
Hi Dan-
ReplyDeleteBack to the COT charts you posted, it appears the commercials are covering shorts in gold and silver since the beginning of the year but are selling copper. Does this equate to the mining companies taking off hedge positions in gold and silver and putting on hedge positions in Copper? What does this portend (if anything)?
SP500 is in an obvious strong uptrend without any consolidation.
ReplyDeleteIt is totally obvious if you watch a 2week candle chart.
There is no hope for bears (except very short term sometimes) in this market at present.
Gold is rangebound and now within a tiny directionless squeeze between 1280 and 1310. There is no sign yet of an "imminent and tremendous bounce in gold".
That's what prices are showing.
One can prefer to remain in denial, but I don't see what's complicated to understand in those charts, why people get furious at analysts explaining those simple truths, and that there is no way to know if / when gold is going to rise, and same for SP500.
Yes, Mark has been right (about market direction) until now. Endure it and don't bother about the bashing which goes with it if you don't like it. I find it quite amusing because of its exaggeration of "gold's tremendous collapse" while prices didn't lose a dollar and have been above 1280 $ for 2 months. Why would one bother to answer with anger to such posts? I don't see the point.
Well, pro or con, I just think it's fascinating, the degree to which metals investing gets so incredibly wrapped up in emotions, far and away more than any other sector than I can think of. Piled on top of the usual fear and greed that can be involved in any investment, the metals bring on another whole slew of issues. Politics, self-esteem, basic ideas of right and wrong, and more, somehow get intertwined.
ReplyDeleteLet me put it this way, if someone were to say "If there were any justice, restaurant stocks would be to the moon by now", anyone would think that is an entirely ridiculous thing to say. That the person involved had completely lost his moorings somehow, and was likely to end up a loser one way or another. "Justice"? Really? I mean, it's nonsensical.
And yet, if you scratch out "restaurant stocks", and insert "gold", well now you have a relatively common and apparently reasonable thing to say, as demonstrated by how often you see some variation of that kind of statement all over the gold sites.
Why is this? I just think it's a fascinating thing.
Oftentimes this year the pm's have run counter to the grains and beans; it is early but they are both breaking down together; seems to me that the deflationary argument takes the day for the second half of '14. Last man standing is U.S. stks and bondolas, but here too, we are probably in the 9th inning. sparks
ReplyDeleteI can think of many many reason why someone would think that gold should be a lot higher now. And I can think of one reason why its not. When it broke 1530, it became bearish So those reasons for the higher part are not in play now. I dont think its fascinating, but just the way bull and bear markets work. And whoever is on the wrong side will not be a happy camper.
ReplyDeleteLooks like gold is pretty much toast.
ReplyDeleteEvery institution is dumping en masse to buy the breakout in stocks.
Ukraine was a non-issue.
TRX $1.82
ReplyDeleteBottom is completely falling out
Wait till it goes below 1.57 and then youll see a bottom falling out.
ReplyDeleteTRX $1.75
ReplyDeleteComplete obliteration from the highs 3 years ago. Down 66%.
Its just another way to GOTS.
ReplyDeleteNext Q & A seminar will be dead as a doornail. The few true believers will bring shoes to throw at the podium, LOL....
ReplyDeleteI think that all came about because of thinking that the cyprus situtation was going to cause complete chaos. But it didnt.
DeleteIm thinking bringing all the nice new friends im meeting on the verious TRX boards to the next AGM.
ReplyDeleteIndeed...at 3.20 for copper working its upwards resistance, and 19.00 for silver in the abyss, working its horizontal support...silver didn't benefit from the 10% bounce from copper's lows.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to be optimistic, but... :( especially now that gold is once more working its horizontal critical support area at 1270.
Let's see how the day close.
Yeah, the "Complete Total Destruction" KWN has been warning about finally arrived.
ReplyDeleteToday in the gold mining sector.
The "Bail-In" everyone has been harping is now here.
ReplyDeleteGLD will probably drop 20% this week alone, after today is the biggest daily loss in a long time.
Dan, where in the world did all these recent donkeys come from? They are true testimony to what I always say, and that is that most specs deep down inside want to lose. That is fact!
ReplyDeleteLike who?
DeleteSomeone who's name starts with an M??