Dan, I think you need to take a look at what Gary Savage is seeing right now:
Unless the dollar really starts to crumble the bears are going to at some point try to take gold back down. This could be that point, and at the moment the dollar isn’t exactly doing what we were expecting. The action in the miners has made me nervous enough that I think everyone should sell every position on Tuesday (or completely hedge your portfolio) and wait on the sidelines
I do think that once geopolitical concerns give way, gold's fortunes will be tied directly to those of the US Dollar. If the Dollar weakens, gold will tend to strengthen. The opposite is true - if the greenback strengthens, then gold will come under selling pressure.
The problem in the currency world is that all of the paper currencies have their own sets of issues right now. The US Dollar has several things working against it - but the main thing is the gargantuan US debt which shows no sign of abating. The upcoming battle over the budget will once again remind the investment world just how miserable the fiscal house of the US is.
That will be an issue "at some point"... Notice I am using the same set of words that the guy you quoted above is using - " at some point".
That is pretty obvious is it not Diamond if you are a bear. At some point the bears will try to take it down, just like "at some point" the bulls will try to take it up! For analysis purposes "at some point" is useless.
What matters to me as a trader is "not at some points" but rather whether or not support or resistance levels hold or give way. Then and only then, can I understand when that nebulous term " at some point" is going to actually occur.
In other words, professional traders do not take positions off or put them on based on "at some points". We let the charts dictate when we act or do not act.
Hopefully you can understand what I am saying here. This is not meant as an insult nor is it said in any manner which would indicate contempt. It is simply a statement as to how I approach a market that I am going to trade.
Read your blog regularly; for your Weekend commentary you provide a link to KWN.Can you summarize ( in a few bullets ), on the blog, under the link itself, what the key points are. This would be greatly appreciated.Thanks.
Nice analysis, so just to make a brief end of month comment, as it was last day of august :
GOLD. http://s22.postimg.org/4tw5ubqgh/gld_m.jpg
We are still in the downtrend formed by the red pitchfork, and we missed by a mere 20 dollars the median of the green pitchfork, which is my immediate target for this quarter. So, even though on a daily time scale, gold is back in an uptrend, it seems too early to claim the same on the monthly time frame.
SILVER.
http://s23.postimg.org/70cz29qsb/slv_m.jpg Same here, last day drop means we are still in the downwards pitchfork. Let's see how we start this month. But right now, despite the strong uptrend in daily candles, monthly, it is too early to say we are out of the woods.
Overall I hope the market will take a breath in september, I think it's the best way to see this rallye eventually turn to a long term one. As a conclusion anyhow, as long as we are still Inside those two downwards pitchforks for gold and silver, I remain extremely careful.
I answered you on the other section of the blog. But as you mentionned "demoralized", I'd like real to mention how I think your blog and your work useful into this thread of people trying to warn people and make them save their assets. Debt is slavery. Therefore gold is freedom. Fighting for people to keep their tangible assets and PMs instead of remaining 100% invested in soon worthless fiat or soon bankrupt banks is a noble task, and I'm sure you are helping more people than you imagine. You may not save the world with your blog or keep some countries from rotting from inside, but it is for sure still very useful to many people, especially after the crash Under 1530 where your caution was noticed and probably respected now by many readers. Please, keep up the great work you're doing. It is NOT useless at all.
http://www.komando.com/columns/index.aspx?id=15123&utm_medium=nl&utm_source=column&utm_content=2013-09-01-column-end 9/1/2013 How prepared are you for a cyberattack? By Kim Komando
Dan, for yourself and several thoughtful readers, there is a good interview with Chris Hedges over at the RNN; I am so sick of the arrogant one in the White House I could just scream; most dangerous POTUS we have ever had and I do not think the average American has a clue; sad, very sad; swb in sparks
Well, here's a person who sure enough shares some of Dan's concerns... http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/09/01/obama-has-decided-that-it-is-safer-to-buy-congress-than-to-go-it-alone-paul-craig-roberts/
i must admit, that flash crash in gold and oil recovered pretty sweetly...i feel like theres a little bit of a curl happening to gold and i dont think its going to go as low as people think before it returns to its up momentum... i reckon gold hasnt moved that far up cos of syria, but cos of more fundamental economic reasons (debr ceiling, macro news)..., people also expect the dictator in chief to go to war regardless of what congress says - or they expect congress to say yes anyway, being the rubber stamp collection of corrupt scwhuls that they are...anyway, i was wondering what Dan thinks of the recovery today...cos at the moment gold popped higher then it ended on friday and is relatively unchanged...thats strange and bullish me thinks.
ES futures up 18, looks like the whole Syria thing was another "bear baiting" event to hammer those who are still clinging to the idea of "Chaos, Panics, and Terrifying Collapses", LOL...
Gold and silver recovered nicely, I will admit I was surprised at their quick comeback.
Let's hope we make it back to $1,650 before the Dow reaches 16,500 by year end. Rising tide lifting all boats will benefit everybody.
I'm sure China's imminent recovery and a dramatic reversal in India's fortunes will stimulate even more demand for gold and silver from the jewelry trade.
Mark, I may be wrong but I am very bearish the so-called BRICS, who when you think about it are quite new to the whole ball game. It may be that their bureacrats and CB's are even more screwed up than those in the developed world. As for India and China, I see ZERO chances of them staying intact 20 years from now, but instead will implode like the FSU did. That is my lock prediction. Anyway, still nothing but smoky skies here, even though they say the Rim Fire is now 60% contained; take care, swb in sparks,nv
Everyone keeps speaking of India, well India said it was not touching anyone's gold . Careful longs ( which I am one ) the propaganda is at full steam trying to get you to sell out . Watch those tight stops the market is trolling for them which is a very bullish sign. Bull markets like to take as less people as possible along for the journey .
No Proposal to convert Idle Gold into Bullion: RBI clarifies
What do you think will happen, should the Fed taper, to gold and silver? I notice Sinclair does not believe tapering will happen. Whereas Yra Harris believes tapering in Sept is almost assured. Both are respectable in their opinions. Thought I would bring the argument here to your blog...
My own opinion is that he may have a biais to be overly pessimistic at some times, but overall I find his blog and advice to be quite an informative piece of information and usefull stuff to watch. Can you deny his knowledge about the gold market and all the things related to it? What makes you assess that I'm wrong?
Hubert, you have said that you rely heavily on TA for trading so I assume that reading JSMinest does not influence your short term thinking. Many of the people upset with Jim Sinclair are short-sighted jackals who used JSMineset like a tip sheet for day trading until it didn't work anymore. They used leverage to trade on the information that he posted and some of them lost their asses. I don't feel sorry for them because Jim warned them against doing exactly what they did. Others listened and took a course of action, they liquidated paper assets and bought physical gold, but then got scared and angry when price volatility kicked in. They were never truly committed. I don't feel sorry for those people either. People who can't think for themselves and panic when the going gets tough will be lost in the days ahead. I am very confident that Jim's long-term view of financial events is correct.
Just as gold bugs have a bias, I think traders have a bias too. They don't want to hear any talk of doom, gloom and collapse. People who trade for a living can't imagine not having a financial system to work within because that would mean the end of their livelihood. When the current system finally breaks down everybody is going to feel the pain, not just traders. I only wish that we could get it over with and start something new, the sooner the better...while we're all relatively young.
@gil, agreed with you : Sinclair always warned about never using leverage in gold.
Even without leverage, some of his readers still totally miss the point. Today is another example, I saw a mail posted by "Jacques".
Extract : "Of course gold is going to $3500,eventually, but if you cannot put a time frame does it really mean anything?"..."Be humble or give us time frames."
Yes Jacques, it means everything when gold is bought as an INSURANCE against a possible systemic collapse that there is NO WAY to predict if or when it will happen. Damn, I don't understand what is so difficult to understand about that! You are asking too much of people.
Besides Sinclair tried to post some time frames at several occasions, or through the work of other analysts. That those predictions should be followed or not is an answer to be made individually. Jim is very loyal to the colleagues he decides to support, and to some extent I am not personally convinced by the accuracy of some of them, but it's a personal point of view which concerns only me. Everybody is free of his own opinion and judgement. The added value of jsmineset is imho not in the timing or the best time to buy. It's about warning people about possible sudden loss of their assets. Hyperinflation, confiscation, default, devaluation.
You once more recently evoked the COT reports. Much talks took place about the relevance of those reports recently, including Jim Sinclair who doesn't trust them to be reliable.
I will quote him about them : "A metals dealer buys the physical from the producer and shorts the future gold to lock in a profit. Then they play that spread to make even more money. COT figures are important because they influence people, but they can be outrageous lies."
As a Professional trader, it would be great if you could explain us which elements of the COT reports you use as a piece of relevan information, why, and how?
I think I understood it is mainly to Watch whether the price movements are due to short covering rather than new long positions being taken. Are there other useful elements to take into account when you monitor them each week?
Strangely, on some blogs, such as Harvey Organ's (who imvho doesn't seem to make a correct read of the cot reports), the numbers are not always the same. Are you rather watching the report with futures only or futures and options? The long format or the short format?
Thanks a lot for sharing about this if you find a little time, I'm very interested.
I have no reason NOT to believe that the Commitment of Traders reports are not accurate. In other words, I believe they reflect the internal composition of the market positions among the various futures contracts that are traded.
Unlike many of the people who only trade gold or silver, I trade a wide variety of futures, especially the agricultural commodities, and I have found the reports to be extremely reliable over the years.
Jim is correct when he states what a metals dealer will do once they engage into a contract to purchase metal from a producer. That is called a hedge. Every single grain elevator and every single cattle and hog packer does the same thing.
Now they may or may not play that spread but that defeats the purpose of a true hedge if they do, namely to mitigate or minimize risk. Anyone who plays the spread is no longer hedging, but is speculating at that point and thus any mitigation of risk that a bona fide hedge might provide, is then gone with the wind.
No grain elevator operator or packer in his right mind is going to do that.
Jim has been around the gold world for a long time, longer than I have, and thus has contacts that I do not have and more experience in the gold market. There may therefore be some of that going on but I doubt it is widespread.
What he might be getting at however is this near perverse fixation among far too many in the gold community on the Commitment of Traders reports. I personally am disgusted with what I see passing for "analysis" of the gold market based on people extrapolating what the market "must certainly do" because some gold-prophet declares that he possesses some esoteric insight into the gold market based on his, and only his, unique insight into the COT report. It is rank amateur hour on full display.
Both Jim and I are sick of that crap. The one thing I can tell you, with absolute certainty, is that speculators drive markets, not commercials. While one can watch for perceived imbalances among market players in a futures contract, no one knows just how far an imbalance can proceed - NO ONE! anyone who claims that they can, is full of bull and is displaying for all the informed world, just how damned arrogant and reckless they really are.
By the way, my grammar is obviously in need of some repair based on the first sentence of my response that I just typed... a double negative! I am in the process of trading the grains this evening and am focused elsewhere so I apologize for any confusion. Let me make clear what I believe - I believe the COT reports are indeed accurate.
much appreciated. Especially with all the BS around. I read in another website (I won't mention which) that speculators were a group of morons who always got it wrong and were being herded by coordinated clever commercials, i.e always follow the commercials from the COT and you'll always be right. Isn't trading simpler that way?, lol :)
The problem of our times is that everybody can open a bloody blog and start talking about something they know practically nothing about. This is actually totally encouraged everywhere. For example I'm looking for a job now, so I kinda read a 300 pages book which is the motto of good job hunters, "guerilla marketing" for those interested. Guess what? It is mandatory to open a blog and start chatting about various topics related to your job. Makes you look wise, dynamic, influencer, and so on...so, finding reliable people in this soup of information is the real challenge.
Hubert, I wish you good luck in your pursuit of a new job. I was recently hired by a large energy company (at age 56!) after dropping out of the work force for 7 months. My skill set and work experience matched perfectly with the position offered, I did not have to relocate and, best of all, I did not have to dip into my golden savings account when to do so would have meant selling during this summer's dismally low prices. Nor did I have to start a bloody blog! I did put a great deal of my energy into what I refer to as conscious intention, or what others might call prayer or meditation. I'm quite sure that timing and good fortune were also involved, but I digress. What I really want to say is I believe that your mindset, spirit and humanity, which you have graciously shared with us here on Dan's blog, will surely make you an asset to someone who needs help doing good work somewhere in this world and I sincerely wish you all the best. IMO, you have earned it!
Prices are drifting. We broke the blue upwards channel, which was expected because of its angle. I didn't short stop because next supports too close below (mlh inf of pitchfork), and indeed we bounced on the mlh inf yesterday. So I'm simply waiting for next opportunity.
As long as the ma20 daily is more or less forming a line parallel to the green channel, my main entry point in gold is on that support, so around 1335 $ at the moment. Have a nice day,
Hubert; Sinclair posted that he sold 5000 silver contracts into Hunt back in '79 or early '80. That was WAY over allowable position limits back then. I do no like liars; steve in sparks
Look, I'm not defending Sinclair and he is not my guru lol :), but everyone has the right for a lawyer or to defend himself, so are you sure he did, and did you ask him some clarification? It's the minimum before calling publicly somebody a liar, and it has nothing with Sinclair or not Sinclair.
Plus, does it really matter? jsm is still sharing info, thoughts, data which I find interesting, mostly links towards other news or personal points of views of Sinclair. So it doesn't influence the relevance or not of that material anyway.
Before you publicly call my friend Jim a liar, you would be well served to ask him for an explanation.
Look, in regards to the markets, JIm has had some good calls and he has had some bad calls. That just means he is human like anyone else.
Pointing out bad calls is fine because anyone who publicly makes a call opens himself to criticism but please stop with the character assassination. It really serves no ones interests.
You're absolutely right. My apologies also as I too may have questioned his (Sinclair's) character on your blog. It is mainly in respect to his ..."the low is in" calls in not just written on his blog but also in personal email exchanges. I fell into the trap of believing that he knew something we all didnt about the specific turning dates of gold. This was my bad and I should take responsibility for being naive as oppose to expressing my disappointment with victim mentality. Learned from this experience so I should just let it go...
1410...I would sell a bit there if I had not done it before already :) It is a pullback on the ex support (became resistance) of the upwards blue channel today. So...if the downtrend continues, it could be after this pullback (classic). hmm...so I'm watching 1410-1412 because it may reverse down at that level.
It does appear to be a ceiling at the 1410 level you speak of. HUI, GDX, GDXJ, not reacting at all to rise back towards upward resistance. Usually spells a fall after it touches it. No momentum anywhere as of yet. I am getting the feeling that the bombs will go off, oil will flatline and the world continues to muddle towards nothingness.
The $ has plenty of problems, but unless you are operating in some kind of parallel universe, you should realize that it is up vs. 90% of the rest of the world's currencies and you never hear that from the perma pm bulls, who also, btw, try telling you that gold is in backwardation. Shame, shame; steve in sparks
yes, most of other currencies have pbs too, and we are in a "currency war" (Jim Rickards), many people in many countries in the world see the USD as The safe haven at the moment, probably before gold because you can so easily exchange your local currency into dollars in any bank, exchange office, etc...call it a habit. That's what the russians did to save their purchasing power when the ruble was collapsing in the early 90s. Plus gold is a narrow market, and you can see that it cannot "contain" all the flows of managed money (unless it is priced 50.000 $ an ounce? :)).
Nevertheless I think that this position is being challenged by gold, and that India is interesting to follow about that. Of course, India's Relationship to gold is very specific. But maybe someday soon this preference for physical gold will extend way beyond India. It's a matter of trust in your currency. When trust is dying, you are talking about Indian rupee and gold now. Maybe someday the usdollar will follow the same fate? I think it will, because of the constant debasement from the Fed and US running short of foreign investors to buy TBonds, and also because the pressure on physical gold will reach a critical point sometime in the future (but when, is the question :)).
It is easy to push prices down when paper prices dictate gold prices, but according to Sinclair, the key as to when Comex goes to a cash market is when the price discovery mechanism moves from the Comex to the physical gold exchanges in Russia and Singapore.
cant believe HUI is chilling round 255 despite gold touching the 1415 area...and all the PM shares i was looking at didnt go up above 4 percent..even NUGT managed about 5 percent at best...though i see a continuation pattern happening with HUI and soon it will break-out/down i think..i hope up...dno what it will take....
p.s. - whats the difference between GDX and HUI: i never really got that...i watch HUI (cos Dan does lol)
you can tell tomahawks will be fired and rebels backed with air power for regime change soon with the use of our elite irregulars CIA-SADs, SOFS, etc
Dan, Hubert, Mark, Jim, Concord; Looks like we have to spin our wheels this week as far as the pm's go; sad that we have to resign ourselves to the leadership challenged Congress and morally bankrupt Executive branch; steve in sparks
Regarding Jim Sinclair, because I'm not his friend and I think I can mention a few things freely and with a neutral stance, I'd like to express my personal opinion. For starters, I would separate his website and content from his individual person and character.
- if we are talking about his website, talking about "lying" brings the question about the reliability / relevance of the information you can find there. On this level, I really don't see why Jim would lie about some information out there. His entire work is dedicated towards warning about the dangers around via links, sources, articles, and his personal opinion which one can discuss directly with him via email. So you can disagree, doubt, but I don't think you'll find "lies" on this website at all. Yet you have to understand that his blog is not a blog where you are going to see different points of views about gold going up or down, about economic situation improving or not : Sinclair seems to be a man of conviction, and he will use his blog, data, information to show you that he is right, not to endlessly debate about the alternative scenarios. It is an oriented website, showing the elements that tend to support his strong convictions. Don't go there to find the whole range of theories about possible potential end games because Sinclair already has a very definite idea of what it will look like and he won't use his time / blog to argue endlessly about it.
Regarding the person itself, pointing at a "lie" doesn't seeem to make a lot of sense to me. First of all, as he is not here even to answer those comments about him, as Dan mentioned, he is available to answer one to one some doubts and questions about his honesty towards his "CIGAs". Second, I'm not a profiler, but what would be the point to do that and deceive followers? It doesn't seem to compute very well with a person who has freely dedicated a lot of time and energy trying to warn mere people about dangers around, whoever they are, and this via direct answers by emails. Do you know a lot of CEOs who would do that with you?? I see an old article about Sinclair in this link, which you may want to read, and seems to show that the man is driven by ethics and spiritual standards that not many leaders I know would care about.
How does it compute with deceiving those he is supposed to want to help? My conclusion is that Sinclair is a dedicated person who sincerely wants to help his community without a hidden agenda in his sleeve. One may find him too self confident and sure of his own views, not enough open to critics or discussions unless they come from experts he himself respects. But he is a man of convictions and he will not spend time with you discussing whether or not he is right. It's take it or leave it. If you consider him as a teacher and simply ask his opinion and analysis, he will provide it quite freely. For that and all the time his endeavor represents, free of charge, in parallel to his other activities, I can only feel very respectful and thankful for the person, even if sometimes he can be wrong about calling a bottom. So what? Put a stop loss under it and you are safe. Follow his advice of being unleveraged and you are safe. Those the more angry with him are probably the greedy who didn't take this piece of advice and bought a boatload of gold at 1600 $ with huge leverage and didn't cover their position when prices continued to fall. I think that most of his analysis and thoughts are very helpful and interesting to connnect the dots, see the whole picture, discover new sources of information. So on my side it's a big thanks for his work, just as for Dan's.
Hubert; I e mailed Sinclair and he responded, but sadly in an unclear fashion as regards the 5000 contracts; as far as I am concerned the case is closed; swb in sparks
TA today : not much to say or do...I didn't short stop Under the blue channel because there was the pitchfork's channel just Under it and that's what happened, we bounced on it and did now a nice pullback towards the previous blue support. ma20 is going up, we are still in the upwards pitchfork, so prices may keep following the blue channel up, or they could re-test the pitchfork's support. I don't have any clue at the moment and the supports are too close from each other to give me enough space to try to trade in my time units, so I'm just doing nothing.
Yesterday's ( Tue) sharp up move in Ag ( not resoundingly confirmed by Gold), based on media hype about a coming WW GDP and Industrial turnaround, was in my humble opinion ( wise or stupid , the jury is out) a trap laid by the bears to suck in unwary. I feel strongly that a big drop in Silver prices is in store for Sep/Oct period. DSI numbers confirm the opposite of what they did in June/July timeframe.
Arnie: U R a thoughtful guy. Can u pl send the link to the Hitchcock episode. I hope it is not the bathroom scene in PSYCHO. By the way I am glad I loaded up on ZSL in mid 60's
Looks like the fabled "v-shaped, 2nd half recovery" has started.
Now we can get this economic boom going, I'm sure it will be one of the biggest in history after years of stagnation.
Mining stocks are holding up, I'm sure that the resurgence in economic activity will definitely help the price of industrial and precious metals at the same time.
the resurgence in economic activity? ok, if you say so...
We are still in the upwards pitchfork, but its mlh inf is once more Under pressure. Even if I don't trade because those supports and résistances are too close from each other for now, I'm happy to see that they seem relevant, as they initiate the short term reversals that I'm witnessing. - break of blue channel support led us immediately towards support of grey pitchfork, which held. - we then bounced back towards the ex support of the blue channel, acting as a resistance. - and...back again right to the support of the pitchfork.
So, it's ping pong time and if mlh inf breaks, I see the next support zone at 1345-1355 area.
I think if we go there, I'll buy back in order to play a limited short term bounce. Have a nice day all
Regarding TA related resources, blogs and subscription letters, I think one should always check by himself all the history of work related to every individual offering his services, especially when there is a "modest" fee to pay, and make careful decisions before subscribing to expensive subscription letters by deeply checking the history, whoever recommended this analyst in the first place. Question everything. Make up your mind by yourself. Improve your TA skills on your own. Don't ever become dependant on one "guru" who pretends he is the god of trading to justify his expensive fees.
SILVER : I don't like at all the last candle formation on silver, i.e the last 5 candles, that you can see on a 2days candle chart, with a resistance at 24.50 and one failed attempt to break it up. It reminds me nasty configurations when I was trading for fun on other markets some years ago. I expect a real reversal and DIVE here if we break Under 23.40. http://s7.postimg.org/b24q89a4b/slv.jpg
I'm very careful with silver (actually I turned a bit short, aiming at 22.50 but hsssh, don't tell the bulls)
I put this on my Facebook page as well, because I'm so fed up with the continuous BS from MSM from the usual warmonger suspects that I felt a little counter balance was necessary. If Internet is the last free media we have, and if the only thing you can do is try and go viral with some of your convictions, then should you remain silent? I agree with George here. Thank you George, hope you get viral.
Miners held up yesterday, they totally collapsed today.
Oh well, back to the drawing board.
Facebook is hitting all time highs today and Tesla is over $170 after trading at $40 just 5 months ago, so some fund manager is still hitting it out of the park.
Only a matter of time before Syria is forgotten, retail and consumer stocks start winding up to hit new record highs again, and GDX/GLD ratio crashes back to the world record lows set back in late June.
Good interview; If Congress caves into the dirty, lying, half baked Chicago politician, God save us all; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteOh, well, no bombing.
ReplyDeleteObama has decided to sit on his hands.
Which means the economic boom will continue.
Back to the usual routine:
- Sell oil.
- Sell gold.
- Buy consumer stocks, shopping mall REITs, and high tech screamers like Salesforce.com with P/E ratios of "N/A".
Dan, I think you need to take a look at what Gary Savage is seeing right now:
ReplyDeleteUnless the dollar really starts to crumble the bears are going to at some point try to take gold back down. This could be that point, and at the moment the dollar isn’t exactly doing what we were expecting. The action in the miners has made me nervous enough that I think everyone should sell every position on Tuesday (or completely hedge your portfolio) and wait on the sidelines
Diamond;
DeleteI do think that once geopolitical concerns give way, gold's fortunes will be tied directly to those of the US Dollar. If the Dollar weakens, gold will tend to strengthen. The opposite is true - if the greenback strengthens, then gold will come under selling pressure.
The problem in the currency world is that all of the paper currencies have their own sets of issues right now. The US Dollar has several things working against it - but the main thing is the gargantuan US debt which shows no sign of abating. The upcoming battle over the budget will once again remind the investment world just how miserable the fiscal house of the US is.
That will be an issue "at some point"... Notice I am using the same set of words that the guy you quoted above is using - " at some point".
That is pretty obvious is it not Diamond if you are a bear. At some point the bears will try to take it down, just like "at some point" the bulls will try to take it up! For analysis purposes "at some point" is useless.
What matters to me as a trader is "not at some points" but rather whether or not support or resistance levels hold or give way. Then and only then, can I understand when that nebulous term " at some point" is going to actually occur.
In other words, professional traders do not take positions off or put them on based on "at some points". We let the charts dictate when we act or do not act.
Hopefully you can understand what I am saying here. This is not meant as an insult nor is it said in any manner which would indicate contempt. It is simply a statement as to how I approach a market that I am going to trade.
Dan
Read your blog regularly; for your Weekend commentary you provide a link to KWN.Can you summarize ( in a few bullets ), on the blog, under the link itself, what the key points are.
DeleteThis would be greatly appreciated.Thanks.
Hi all,
ReplyDeleteNice analysis, so just to make a brief end of month comment, as it was last day of august :
GOLD.
http://s22.postimg.org/4tw5ubqgh/gld_m.jpg
We are still in the downtrend formed by the red pitchfork, and we missed by a mere 20 dollars the median of the green pitchfork, which is my immediate target for this quarter.
So, even though on a daily time scale, gold is back in an uptrend, it seems too early to claim the same on the monthly time frame.
SILVER.
http://s23.postimg.org/70cz29qsb/slv_m.jpg
Same here, last day drop means we are still in the downwards pitchfork. Let's see how we start this month. But right now, despite the strong uptrend in daily candles, monthly, it is too early to say we are out of the woods.
Overall I hope the market will take a breath in september, I think it's the best way to see this rallye eventually turn to a long term one. As a conclusion anyhow, as long as we are still Inside those two downwards pitchforks for gold and silver, I remain extremely careful.
@Dan,
ReplyDeleteI answered you on the other section of the blog.
But as you mentionned "demoralized", I'd like real to mention how I think your blog and your work useful into this thread of people trying to warn people and make them save their assets.
Debt is slavery.
Therefore gold is freedom.
Fighting for people to keep their tangible assets and PMs instead of remaining 100% invested in soon worthless fiat or soon bankrupt banks is a noble task, and I'm sure you are helping more people than you imagine.
You may not save the world with your blog or keep some countries from rotting from inside, but it is for sure still very useful to many people, especially after the crash Under 1530 where your caution was noticed and probably respected now by many readers.
Please, keep up the great work you're doing. It is NOT useless at all.
http://www.komando.com/columns/index.aspx?id=15123&utm_medium=nl&utm_source=column&utm_content=2013-09-01-column-end
ReplyDelete9/1/2013 How prepared are you for a cyberattack? By Kim Komando
Dan, for yourself and several thoughtful readers, there is a good interview with Chris Hedges over at the RNN; I am so sick of the arrogant one in the White House I could just scream; most dangerous POTUS we have ever had and I do not think the average American has a clue; sad, very sad; swb in sparks
ReplyDeleteGold just opened, $10 gap down, now trading at $1,381
ReplyDelete$1,400 now resistance, the "Angels" stranded at $1,650 will have to remain in rehab for several more months before they are rescued.
Oh well, the rally was fun while it lasted.
Mark I didn't know you worked on Sundays.
DeleteMark; it is a shit sandwich without mayonnaise, I am afraid for the pm; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteDon't worry about the PM's. They are in good hands.
ReplyDelete-Mikal
what are good hands? I am flat waiting for a good break; steve in sparks
DeleteI've gotta hand it to you, I'll bet you're a great hand at cards. Take that as a sincere handoff, not third hand information.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWell, here's a person who sure enough shares some of Dan's concerns...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/09/01/obama-has-decided-that-it-is-safer-to-buy-congress-than-to-go-it-alone-paul-craig-roberts/
The growing geo political tension in Syria not only hits equity markets last week but also pushed Crude oil prices. Market Recoverd, Expected to ramain volatile this week
ReplyDeletei must admit, that flash crash in gold and oil recovered pretty sweetly...i feel like theres a little bit of a curl happening to gold and i dont think its going to go as low as people think before it returns to its up momentum... i reckon gold hasnt moved that far up cos of syria, but cos of more fundamental economic reasons (debr ceiling, macro news)..., people also expect the dictator in chief to go to war regardless of what congress says - or they expect congress to say yes anyway, being the rubber stamp collection of corrupt scwhuls that they are...anyway, i was wondering what Dan thinks of the recovery today...cos at the moment gold popped higher then it ended on friday and is relatively unchanged...thats strange and bullish me thinks.
ReplyDeleteES futures up 18, looks like the whole Syria thing was another "bear baiting" event to hammer those who are still clinging to the idea of "Chaos, Panics, and Terrifying Collapses", LOL...
ReplyDeleteGold and silver recovered nicely, I will admit I was surprised at their quick comeback.
Let's hope we make it back to $1,650 before the Dow reaches 16,500 by year end. Rising tide lifting all boats will benefit everybody.
I'm sure China's imminent recovery and a dramatic reversal in India's fortunes will stimulate even more demand for gold and silver from the jewelry trade.
Mark, I may be wrong but I am very bearish the so-called BRICS, who when you think about it are quite new to the whole ball game. It may be that their bureacrats and CB's are even more screwed up than those in the developed world. As for India and China, I see ZERO chances of them staying intact 20 years from now, but instead will implode like the FSU did. That is my lock prediction. Anyway, still nothing but smoky skies here, even though they say the Rim Fire is now 60% contained; take care, swb in sparks,nv
ReplyDeleteEveryone keeps speaking of India, well India said it was not touching anyone's gold . Careful longs ( which I am one ) the propaganda is at full steam trying to get you to sell out . Watch those tight stops the market is trolling for them which is a very bullish sign. Bull markets like to take as less people as possible along for the journey .
ReplyDeleteNo Proposal to convert Idle Gold into Bullion: RBI clarifies
http://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=29444
Dan,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think will happen, should the Fed taper, to gold and silver? I notice Sinclair does not believe tapering will happen. Whereas Yra Harris believes tapering in Sept is almost assured. Both are respectable in their opinions. Thought I would bring the argument here to your blog...
i think the taper is priced in
ReplyDeleteDan; If you follow Sinclair you will be using food stamps next year, depending on your bankroll; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteSteve, factually, what makes you say that?
DeleteMy own opinion is that he may have a biais to be overly pessimistic at some times, but overall I find his blog and advice to be quite an informative piece of information and usefull stuff to watch. Can you deny his knowledge about the gold market and all the things related to it? What makes you assess that I'm wrong?
Hubert, you have said that you rely heavily on TA for trading so I assume that reading JSMinest does not influence your short term thinking. Many of the people upset with Jim Sinclair are short-sighted jackals who used JSMineset like a tip sheet for day trading until it didn't work anymore. They used leverage to trade on the information that he posted and some of them lost their asses. I don't feel sorry for them because Jim warned them against doing exactly what they did. Others listened and took a course of action, they liquidated paper assets and bought physical gold, but then got scared and angry when price volatility kicked in. They were never truly committed. I don't feel sorry for those people either. People who can't think for themselves and panic when the going gets tough will be lost in the days ahead. I am very confident that Jim's long-term view of financial events is correct.
DeleteJust as gold bugs have a bias, I think traders have a bias too. They don't want to hear any talk of doom, gloom and collapse. People who trade for a living can't imagine not having a financial system to work within because that would mean the end of their livelihood. When the current system finally breaks down everybody is going to feel the pain, not just traders. I only wish that we could get it over with and start something new, the sooner the better...while we're all relatively young.
@gil, agreed with you : Sinclair always warned about never using leverage in gold.
DeleteEven without leverage, some of his readers still totally miss the point.
Today is another example, I saw a mail posted by "Jacques".
Extract : "Of course gold is going to $3500,eventually, but if you cannot put a time frame does it really mean anything?"..."Be humble or give us time frames."
Yes Jacques, it means everything when gold is bought as an INSURANCE against a possible systemic collapse that there is NO WAY to predict if or when it will happen.
Damn, I don't understand what is so difficult to understand about that!
You are asking too much of people.
Besides Sinclair tried to post some time frames at several occasions, or through the work of other analysts. That those predictions should be followed or not is an answer to be made individually. Jim is very loyal to the colleagues he decides to support, and to some extent I am not personally convinced by the accuracy of some of them, but it's a personal point of view which concerns only me. Everybody is free of his own opinion and judgement. The added value of jsmineset is imho not in the timing or the best time to buy. It's about warning people about possible sudden loss of their assets. Hyperinflation, confiscation, default, devaluation.
Hi Dan,
ReplyDeleteYou once more recently evoked the COT reports.
Much talks took place about the relevance of those reports recently, including Jim Sinclair who doesn't trust them to be reliable.
I will quote him about them :
"A metals dealer buys the physical from the producer and shorts the future gold to lock in a profit. Then they play that spread to make even more money. COT figures are important because they influence people, but they can be outrageous lies."
As a Professional trader, it would be great if you could explain us which elements of the COT reports you use as a piece of relevan information, why, and how?
I think I understood it is mainly to Watch whether the price movements are due to short covering rather than new long positions being taken.
Are there other useful elements to take into account when you monitor them each week?
Strangely, on some blogs, such as Harvey Organ's (who imvho doesn't seem to make a correct read of the cot reports), the numbers are not always the same.
Are you rather watching the report with futures only or futures and options? The long format or the short format?
Thanks a lot for sharing about this if you find a little time, I'm very interested.
Hubert du Haut;
DeleteThanks as always for the post.
I have no reason NOT to believe that the Commitment of Traders reports are not accurate. In other words, I believe they reflect the internal composition of the market positions among the various futures contracts that are traded.
Unlike many of the people who only trade gold or silver, I trade a wide variety of futures, especially the agricultural commodities, and I have found the reports to be extremely reliable over the years.
Jim is correct when he states what a metals dealer will do once they engage into a contract to purchase metal from a producer. That is called a hedge. Every single grain elevator and every single cattle and hog packer does the same thing.
Now they may or may not play that spread but that defeats the purpose of a true hedge if they do, namely to mitigate or minimize risk. Anyone who plays the spread is no longer hedging, but is speculating at that point and thus any mitigation of risk that a bona fide hedge might provide, is then gone with the wind.
No grain elevator operator or packer in his right mind is going to do that.
Jim has been around the gold world for a long time, longer than I have, and thus has contacts that I do not have and more experience in the gold market. There may therefore be some of that going on but I doubt it is widespread.
What he might be getting at however is this near perverse fixation among far too many in the gold community on the Commitment of Traders reports. I personally am disgusted with what I see passing for "analysis" of the gold market based on people extrapolating what the market "must certainly do" because some gold-prophet declares that he possesses some esoteric insight into the gold market based on his, and only his, unique insight into the COT report. It is rank amateur hour on full display.
Both Jim and I are sick of that crap. The one thing I can tell you, with absolute certainty, is that speculators drive markets, not commercials. While one can watch for perceived imbalances among market players in a futures contract, no one knows just how far an imbalance can proceed - NO ONE! anyone who claims that they can, is full of bull and is displaying for all the informed world, just how damned arrogant and reckless they really are.
Hubert du Haut;
DeleteBy the way, my grammar is obviously in need of some repair based on the first sentence of my response that I just typed... a double negative! I am in the process of trading the grains this evening and am focused elsewhere so I apologize for any confusion. Let me make clear what I believe - I believe the COT reports are indeed accurate.
"speculators drive markets, not commercials"
DeleteThanks Dan,
much appreciated.
Especially with all the BS around.
I read in another website (I won't mention which) that speculators were a group of morons who always got it wrong and were being herded by coordinated clever commercials, i.e always follow the commercials from the COT and you'll always be right.
Isn't trading simpler that way?, lol :)
The problem of our times is that everybody can open a bloody blog and start talking about something they know practically nothing about.
This is actually totally encouraged everywhere.
For example I'm looking for a job now, so I kinda read a 300 pages book which is the motto of good job hunters, "guerilla marketing" for those interested.
Guess what? It is mandatory to open a blog and start chatting about various topics related to your job.
Makes you look wise, dynamic, influencer, and so on...so, finding reliable people in this soup of information is the real challenge.
P.S : seems that Jim is a secret fan of Winston. Petunia will aprreciate.
Delete"I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." W.Churchill.
Hubert, I wish you good luck in your pursuit of a new job. I was recently hired by a large energy company (at age 56!) after dropping out of the work force for 7 months. My skill set and work experience matched perfectly with the position offered, I did not have to relocate and, best of all, I did not have to dip into my golden savings account when to do so would have meant selling during this summer's dismally low prices. Nor did I have to start a bloody blog! I did put a great deal of my energy into what I refer to as conscious intention, or what others might call prayer or meditation. I'm quite sure that timing and good fortune were also involved, but I digress. What I really want to say is I believe that your mindset, spirit and humanity, which you have graciously shared with us here on Dan's blog, will surely make you an asset to someone who needs help doing good work somewhere in this world and I sincerely wish you all the best. IMO, you have earned it!
DeleteFYI, today's TA : much ado about nothing.
ReplyDeletePrices are drifting. We broke the blue upwards channel, which was expected because of its angle. I didn't short stop because next supports too close below (mlh inf of pitchfork), and indeed we bounced on the mlh inf yesterday. So I'm simply waiting for next opportunity.
As long as the ma20 daily is more or less forming a line parallel to the green channel, my main entry point in gold is on that support, so around 1335 $ at the moment.
Have a nice day,
Hubert; Sinclair posted that he sold 5000 silver contracts into Hunt back in '79 or early '80. That was WAY over allowable position limits back then. I do no like liars; steve in sparks
ReplyDeletehi steve. Point noted.
DeleteDid you ask him an answer about that, though?
Maybe he'd have a valid explanation?
We all don't like liars...
DeleteGood that we found, Dan!
Look, I'm not defending Sinclair and he is not my guru lol :), but everyone has the right for a lawyer or to defend himself, so are you sure he did, and did you ask him some clarification? It's the minimum before calling publicly somebody a liar, and it has nothing with Sinclair or not Sinclair.
DeletePlus, does it really matter? jsm is still sharing info, thoughts, data which I find interesting, mostly links towards other news or personal points of views of Sinclair. So it doesn't influence the relevance or not of that material anyway.
Steve;
DeleteBefore you publicly call my friend Jim a liar, you would be well served to ask him for an explanation.
Look, in regards to the markets, JIm has had some good calls and he has had some bad calls. That just means he is human like anyone else.
Pointing out bad calls is fine because anyone who publicly makes a call opens himself to criticism but please stop with the character assassination. It really serves no ones interests.
Hi Dan,
DeleteYou're absolutely right. My apologies also as I too may have questioned his (Sinclair's) character on your blog. It is mainly in respect to his ..."the low is in" calls in not just written on his blog but also in personal email exchanges. I fell into the trap of believing that he knew something we all didnt about the specific turning dates of gold. This was my bad and I should take responsibility for being naive as oppose to expressing my disappointment with victim mentality. Learned from this experience so I should just let it go...
Cheers, Dan! You are well respected!
1410...I would sell a bit there if I had not done it before already :)
ReplyDeleteIt is a pullback on the ex support (became resistance) of the upwards blue channel today.
So...if the downtrend continues, it could be after this pullback (classic).
hmm...so I'm watching 1410-1412 because it may reverse down at that level.
Hubert,
ReplyDeleteIt does appear to be a ceiling at the 1410 level you speak of. HUI, GDX, GDXJ, not reacting at all to rise back towards upward resistance. Usually spells a fall after it touches it. No momentum anywhere as of yet. I am getting the feeling that the bombs will go off, oil will flatline and the world continues to muddle towards nothingness.
The $ has plenty of problems, but unless you are operating in some kind of parallel universe, you should realize that it is up vs. 90% of the rest of the world's currencies and you never hear that from the perma pm bulls, who also, btw, try telling you that gold is in backwardation. Shame, shame; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteyes, most of other currencies have pbs too, and we are in a "currency war" (Jim Rickards), many people in many countries in the world see the USD as The safe haven at the moment, probably before gold because you can so easily exchange your local currency into dollars in any bank, exchange office, etc...call it a habit. That's what the russians did to save their purchasing power when the ruble was collapsing in the early 90s.
DeletePlus gold is a narrow market, and you can see that it cannot "contain" all the flows of managed money (unless it is priced 50.000 $ an ounce? :)).
Nevertheless I think that this position is being challenged by gold, and that India is interesting to follow about that. Of course, India's Relationship to gold is very specific. But maybe someday soon this preference for physical gold will extend way beyond India. It's a matter of trust in your currency. When trust is dying, you are talking about Indian rupee and gold now. Maybe someday the usdollar will follow the same fate? I think it will, because of the constant debasement from the Fed and US running short of foreign investors to buy TBonds, and also because the pressure on physical gold will reach a critical point sometime in the future (but when, is the question :)).
It is easy to push prices down when paper prices dictate gold prices, but according to Sinclair,
the key as to when Comex goes to a cash market is when the price discovery mechanism moves from the Comex to the physical gold exchanges in Russia and Singapore.
cant believe HUI is chilling round 255 despite gold touching the 1415 area...and all the PM shares i was looking at didnt go up above 4 percent..even NUGT managed about 5 percent at best...though i see a continuation pattern happening with HUI and soon it will break-out/down i think..i hope up...dno what it will take....
ReplyDeletep.s. - whats the difference between GDX and HUI: i never really got that...i watch HUI (cos Dan does lol)
you can tell tomahawks will be fired and rebels backed with air power for regime change soon with the use of our elite irregulars CIA-SADs, SOFS, etc
Dan, Hubert, Mark, Jim, Concord; Looks like we have to spin our wheels this week as far as the pm's go; sad that we have to resign ourselves to the leadership challenged Congress and morally bankrupt Executive branch; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteRegarding Jim Sinclair, because I'm not his friend and I think I can mention a few things freely and with a neutral stance, I'd like to express my personal opinion.
ReplyDeleteFor starters, I would separate his website and content from his individual person and character.
- if we are talking about his website, talking about "lying" brings the question about the reliability / relevance of the information you can find there. On this level, I really don't see why Jim would lie about some information out there. His entire work is dedicated towards warning about the dangers around via links, sources, articles, and his personal opinion which one can discuss directly with him via email. So you can disagree, doubt, but I don't think you'll find "lies" on this website at all. Yet you have to understand that his blog is not a blog where you are going to see different points of views about gold going up or down, about economic situation improving or not : Sinclair seems to be a man of conviction, and he will use his blog, data, information to show you that he is right, not to endlessly debate about the alternative scenarios. It is an oriented website, showing the elements that tend to support his strong convictions. Don't go there to find the whole range of theories about possible potential end games because Sinclair already has a very definite idea of what it will look like and he won't use his time / blog to argue endlessly about it.
Regarding the person itself, pointing at a "lie" doesn't seeem to make a lot of sense to me. First of all, as he is not here even to answer those comments about him, as Dan mentioned, he is available to answer one to one some doubts and questions about his honesty towards his "CIGAs". Second, I'm not a profiler, but what would be the point to do that and deceive followers? It doesn't seem to compute very well with a person who has freely dedicated a lot of time and energy trying to warn mere people about dangers around, whoever they are, and this via direct answers by emails.
Do you know a lot of CEOs who would do that with you??
I see an old article about Sinclair in this link, which you may want to read, and seems to show that the man is driven by ethics and spiritual standards that not many leaders I know would care about.
http://www.globaldharma.org/Files%20-%20Adobe%20Acrobat/SBL/!OK%20James%20Sinclair%2019%20Apr%2002%20Final%20approved%2024Mar06.pdf
How does it compute with deceiving those he is supposed to want to help?
My conclusion is that Sinclair is a dedicated person who sincerely wants to help his community without a hidden agenda in his sleeve.
One may find him too self confident and sure of his own views, not enough open to critics or discussions unless they come from experts he himself respects. But he is a man of convictions and he will not spend time with you discussing whether or not he is right. It's take it or leave it. If you consider him as a teacher and simply ask his opinion and analysis, he will provide it quite freely.
For that and all the time his endeavor represents, free of charge, in parallel to his other activities, I can only feel very respectful and thankful for the person, even if sometimes he can be wrong about calling a bottom. So what? Put a stop loss under it and you are safe. Follow his advice of being unleveraged and you are safe. Those the more angry with him are probably the greedy who didn't take this piece of advice and bought a boatload of gold at 1600 $ with huge leverage and didn't cover their position when prices continued to fall.
I think that most of his analysis and thoughts are very helpful and interesting to connnect the dots, see the whole picture, discover new sources of information. So on my side it's a big thanks for his work, just as for Dan's.
Hubert; I e mailed Sinclair and he responded, but sadly in an unclear fashion as regards the 5000 contracts; as far as I am concerned the case is closed; swb in sparks
Deletesure steve, ok.
ReplyDeleteTA today : not much to say or do...I didn't short stop Under the blue channel because there was the pitchfork's channel just Under it and that's what happened, we bounced on it and did now a nice pullback towards the previous blue support.
ma20 is going up, we are still in the upwards pitchfork, so prices may keep following the blue channel up, or they could re-test the pitchfork's support.
I don't have any clue at the moment and the supports are too close from each other to give me enough space to try to trade in my time units, so I'm just doing nothing.
http://s14.postimg.org/rb7qm3jjl/gld.jpg
Yesterday's ( Tue) sharp up move in Ag ( not resoundingly confirmed by Gold), based on media hype about a coming WW GDP and Industrial turnaround, was in my humble opinion ( wise or stupid , the jury is out) a trap laid by the bears to suck in unwary. I feel strongly that a big drop in Silver prices is in store for Sep/Oct period. DSI numbers confirm the opposite of what they did in June/July timeframe.
ReplyDeleteThere is a great Alfred Hitchcock episode, that can be found on you tube. Mail order prophet. Watch it before posting any opinions.
DeleteArnie: U R a thoughtful guy. Can u pl send the link to the Hitchcock episode.
DeleteI hope it is not the bathroom scene in PSYCHO.
By the way I am glad I loaded up on ZSL in mid 60's
Just go to You Tube and enter Alfred Hitchcok presents, Mail Order Prophet episode.
Deletefeels like the killer Labor Day Top has shown up once again for the pm's and our 2 month rally needs a rest; swb in sparks
ReplyDeleteLooks like the fabled "v-shaped, 2nd half recovery" has started.
ReplyDeleteNow we can get this economic boom going, I'm sure it will be one of the biggest in history after years of stagnation.
Mining stocks are holding up, I'm sure that the resurgence in economic activity will definitely help the price of industrial and precious metals at the same time.
the resurgence in economic activity?
ReplyDeleteok, if you say so...
We are still in the upwards pitchfork, but its mlh inf is once more Under pressure. Even if I don't trade because those supports and résistances are too close from each other for now, I'm happy to see that they seem relevant, as they initiate the short term reversals that I'm witnessing.
- break of blue channel support led us immediately towards support of grey pitchfork, which held.
- we then bounced back towards the ex support of the blue channel, acting as a resistance.
- and...back again right to the support of the pitchfork.
So, it's ping pong time and if mlh inf breaks, I see the next support zone at 1345-1355 area.
I think if we go there, I'll buy back in order to play a limited short term bounce.
Have a nice day all
Regarding TA related resources, blogs and subscription letters, I think one should always check by himself all the history of work related to every individual offering his services, especially when there is a "modest" fee to pay, and make careful decisions before subscribing to expensive subscription letters by deeply checking the history, whoever recommended this analyst in the first place.
DeleteQuestion everything. Make up your mind by yourself.
Improve your TA skills on your own.
Don't ever become dependant on one "guru" who pretends he is the god of trading to justify his expensive fees.
Warning... :)
ReplyDeleteSILVER : I don't like at all the last candle formation on silver, i.e the last 5 candles, that you can see on a 2days candle chart, with a resistance at 24.50 and one failed attempt to break it up. It reminds me nasty configurations when I was trading for fun on other markets some years ago. I expect a real reversal and DIVE here if we break Under 23.40.
http://s7.postimg.org/b24q89a4b/slv.jpg
I'm very careful with silver (actually I turned a bit short, aiming at 22.50 but hsssh, don't tell the bulls)
I put this on my Facebook page as well, because I'm so fed up with the continuous BS from MSM from the usual warmonger suspects that I felt a little counter balance was necessary.
ReplyDeleteIf Internet is the last free media we have, and if the only thing you can do is try and go viral with some of your convictions, then should you remain silent?
I agree with George here. Thank you George, hope you get viral.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt32GP1FG00
DUST trying to get some mo-jo going.
ReplyDeleteMiners held up yesterday, they totally collapsed today.
Oh well, back to the drawing board.
Facebook is hitting all time highs today and Tesla is over $170 after trading at $40 just 5 months ago, so some fund manager is still hitting it out of the park.
Only a matter of time before Syria is forgotten, retail and consumer stocks start winding up to hit new record highs again, and GDX/GLD ratio crashes back to the world record lows set back in late June.
Never a dull moment in the casino.