Today was all about the selling in the Euro which tended to bring back some of the RISK OFF trades or at the very least, induced some profit taking in the RISK ON trades. Draghi did not offer much in the way of support for Euro bulls and after that big run up, they booked profits. That brought on some selling in both gold and silver, along with the commodity sector in general. Even crude oil was finally knocked lower for a change.
Hello again Dan.
ReplyDeleteI'd be interested to know your thoughts on how this year and the next few will play out.
There are many conflicting theories; Jim Sinclair expects bond rates to remain relatively stable as "QE to infinity" implies as much liquidity as is needed will be provided and any surplus of supply would be bought by the Fed effectively maintaining low rates across the yield curve for years to come.
Then you have recent interview on KWN from the likes of Michael Belkin who sees rates rising this year and a massive "deflationary event" in the stock market with falling asset prices before massive QE comes in (more massive than we have already!) to bump start much higher commodities and PM shares.
Pento today talked about crippling rates and bursting bond bubbles. I personally don't see how the bond bubble can burst any time soon as long as QE is provided. Perhaps when inflation gets out of control and there is no choice but to let rates rise?
You are a trader and offer us excellent short term guidance. I'd love to know your long terms views. We live in unprecedented times and it's so difficult for the average Jo on the street to predict how all this may play out.
Cheers
Dominic
Rising US oil self-sufficiency a threat to gold, says Canada's Iamgold
ReplyDeleteBTW, that article is already outdated, even though it's got today's date on it.
DeleteThe US Energy Information Administration estimates that domestic crude oil production will grow by more than 20 per cent over the coming decade. US oil production was 5.5 million barrels a day in 2010 but with the continued development of "tight oil" from shale, and increases from oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico, output could rise to to 6.7 million barrels a day in 2020, a level not seen since 1994.
The latest monthly data from the EIA shows US oil production *already* at almost 6.9 million barrels/day, as of November. So that estimate for 2020 has already been exceeded.
Hi Dan,
ReplyDeleteI see gold and silver not only rangebound, but within a triangle, which is about to end soon.
Using Andrew's forks, here are the charts.
On gold, one can see that the ma 50 you mentionned is indeed very efficient to cap prices.
So I'm just waiting for the way out.
BTW I'm using an alias here, because my main email is a Yahoo and can't get through your blog's SSO. Hope you don't mind :)
http://www.monsterup.com/image.php?url=upload/1360304557924.jpg
http://www.monsterup.com/image.php?url=upload/1360304557119.jpg