Thanks very much for sharing your market views, I find your blog extremely insightful and helpful with my investing in these highly volatile times! Was wondering if you ever read Abigail F. Doolittle's bearish technical analysis and if so what you make of it:
I see it going to $1440 for sure and probably $1300 based on simple fib retracements.
The Asian buying must be put into context. Eastern buying will drop as their economies weaken. India's buying collapsed already; chinese buying will collapse soon too.
Then when the Euros get back from their 2-month vacations, and EU banks & sovereigns collapse, Europe will be FORCED to sell HUGE amounts of gold. Way more than they had to sell last autumn, which pushed gold down $400. These huge gold sales will overwhelm all gold demand, and that is when gold price goes down the toilet. It could go parabolic - downwards!
J, I'm actually a gold bull but I'm also open minded. I've only followed her for a few weeks now but having looked in to her she has made some decent predictions in the past.
A friend of mine who's in to charting rates her very highly indeed.
When it comes to making longer term predictions though I'm more of a believer that it's how one interprets the macro economic events rather than relying too heavily on charts.
Yeah but nothing goes straight up. And nobody knows how far down this goes before the primary trend changes. Currently the primary trend is down, until it isn't.
If I had no gold or silver, I would say buy now because you need some for portfolio diversification and insurance. If I was over-allocated, I would be worried.
"Rich" people I know have an allocation, whether 10% or 5%, and stick to it with automatic monthly rebalancing. That means they automatically sell a bit when prices are high and buy a bit when prices are low. Diversification across alternate asset classes is key to wealth preservation and accumulation. The world is not going to end, even in the worst case of a currency or banking collapse, people still need food & shelter & health, and the wealthy still need their toys and lifestyles. There are always wealthy people around. Wealth merely gets redistributed by market conditions.
Right and IMO will be distributed to peope who own tangible "things" whether it be diamond wedding ring, a piece of real estate or an oz of gold.
The world isn't going to end but it's going to get worse before it gets better as will the levels of debt. For me gold is in a long term bull market and the fundamental drivers behind that bull market get stronger by the day.
Wouldn't be surprised if gold had some further pain before it reaches new all time highs but I wouldn't bet on it personally.
The good thing about Doolitte is she is willing to change her mind if the fundamentals change. I'm fascinated to see how this plays out over the next 6 months, bulls vs. bears should be decided. Should be interesting.
I've heard the six hundred figure myself....could be really interesting. Would certainly give a shock to the permabulls. If it goes that low, you're gonna see people in the PM 'keep on stackin/buy at any price/never sell' crowd jumpin out windows.
Thanks very much for sharing your market views, I find your blog extremely insightful and helpful with my investing in these highly volatile times! Was wondering if you ever read Abigail F. Doolittle's bearish technical analysis and if so what you make of it:
ReplyDeletehttp://peaktheories.com/self.php?id=1554
Many thanks again.
$681? Hmmm.
DeleteI see it going to $1440 for sure and probably $1300 based on simple fib retracements.
The Asian buying must be put into context. Eastern buying will drop as their economies weaken. India's buying collapsed already; chinese buying will collapse soon too.
Then when the Euros get back from their 2-month vacations, and EU banks & sovereigns collapse, Europe will be FORCED to sell HUGE amounts of gold. Way more than they had to sell last autumn, which pushed gold down $400. These huge gold sales will overwhelm all gold demand, and that is when gold price goes down the toilet. It could go parabolic - downwards!
$631 ?? ... hmm yeah maybe
Good luck.
PS. Thanks for the great link. Is she well-known or credible?
ReplyDeleteEven as a bear I find her $600 target a leap of faith.
J, I'm actually a gold bull but I'm also open minded. I've only followed her for a few weeks now but having looked in to her she has made some decent predictions in the past.
ReplyDeleteA friend of mine who's in to charting rates her very highly indeed.
When it comes to making longer term predictions though I'm more of a believer that it's how one interprets the macro economic events rather than relying too heavily on charts.
Yeah but nothing goes straight up. And nobody knows how far down this goes before the primary trend changes. Currently the primary trend is down, until it isn't.
DeleteIf I had no gold or silver, I would say buy now because you need some for portfolio diversification and insurance. If I was over-allocated, I would be worried.
"Rich" people I know have an allocation, whether 10% or 5%, and stick to it with automatic monthly rebalancing. That means they automatically sell a bit when prices are high and buy a bit when prices are low. Diversification across alternate asset classes is key to wealth preservation and accumulation. The world is not going to end, even in the worst case of a currency or banking collapse, people still need food & shelter & health, and the wealthy still need their toys and lifestyles. There are always wealthy people around. Wealth merely gets redistributed by market conditions.
Right and IMO will be distributed to peope who own tangible "things" whether it be diamond wedding ring, a piece of real estate or an oz of gold.
ReplyDeleteThe world isn't going to end but it's going to get worse before it gets better as will the levels of debt. For me gold is in a long term bull market and the fundamental drivers behind that bull market get stronger by the day.
Wouldn't be surprised if gold had some further pain before it reaches new all time highs but I wouldn't bet on it personally.
The good thing about Doolitte is she is willing to change her mind if the fundamentals change. I'm fascinated to see how this plays out over the next 6 months, bulls vs. bears should be decided. Should be interesting.
Good to hear that she is no permabear or permabear.
DeleteI change my mind too... sometimes too much too often... which hurts rate-of-return and only helps the broker get more commission, sigh.
I've heard the six hundred figure myself....could be really interesting. Would certainly give a shock to the permabulls. If it goes that low, you're gonna see people in the PM 'keep on stackin/buy at any price/never sell' crowd jumpin out windows.
ReplyDelete