I can't find the link, but I've also read that hotel occupancy rates are at record highs, and restaurant sales are at pre-recession levels. Also, Chinese 'official' PMI reading came in at 50.3, on 49 consensus. Asia should open strong, and should carry over to Tuesday market open pushing S&P right back to 1165 resistance, and probable break on the upside.
The bulls are going to push it higher, and I can see a breakout to 1300 on the S&P with risk on back in favor. If S&P surprises with a one notch downgrade of France, and banks continue to deploy that fresh ECB cash, things could heat up very quickly to the upside after an initial selloff.
Don't forget U.S. and China both on political election cycles. Will be looking to push things higher at all expense. Now I know things can change fast, but that's how I see it right now.
My trading bias is bullish through Wednesday, then out before S&P Friday. Then back with a bullish bias once it looks like risk on is back in favor, and EU can get those 10 year yields down (which means UST 10 year yields gong UP).
Happy New Year Dan.
ReplyDeleteHi Dan, best wishes for 2012.
ReplyDeleteSome favorable economic news to think about.
ReplyDeleterail traffic shows strong economy:
http://pragcap.com/rail-traffic-shows-continued-economic-expansion
I can't find the link, but I've also read that hotel occupancy rates are at record highs, and restaurant sales are at pre-recession levels. Also, Chinese 'official' PMI reading came in at 50.3, on 49 consensus. Asia should open strong, and should carry over to Tuesday market open pushing S&P right back to 1165 resistance, and probable break on the upside.
http://english.cri.cn/6826/2012/01/01/189s674151.htm
The bulls are going to push it higher, and I can see a breakout to 1300 on the S&P with risk on back in favor. If S&P surprises with a one notch downgrade of France, and banks continue to deploy that fresh ECB cash, things could heat up very quickly to the upside after an initial selloff.
Don't forget U.S. and China both on political election cycles. Will be looking to push things higher at all expense. Now I know things can change fast, but that's how I see it right now.
My trading bias is bullish through Wednesday, then out before S&P Friday. Then back with a bullish bias once it looks like risk on is back in favor, and EU can get those 10 year yields down (which means UST 10 year yields gong UP).