Tuesday, December 13, 2011

The Difference between Meteorologists and Traders

... is quite simple - Meteorologists still make money even when they are terribly, horrifically, astonishingly wrong. Traders don't.  Advice - with all this insane volatility maybe we should become meteorologists!

Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes

Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.
William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/mobile/story.html?id=5847032
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5 comments:

  1. White WolfDecember 13, 2011 at 7:20 AM

    Wow, at least someone with 20+ years of "predicting" finally uttered the truth. I do not believe the US Govt and all their Wall Street Allies will ever do this. Nope, it will be splatteroo for the common man (me). I am in no position to say when, but I believe it has to end or money printing to wash it away. Have to have some Bernanke "tail risk" assets for protection or no breathing will take place after the world hits the winshield

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  2. davecydellDecember 13, 2011 at 7:20 PM

    Gee, I was kinda thinking it would be sweet if a couple hundred politicians with 20 years experience would admit the same.

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  3. boatmanDecember 13, 2011 at 9:29 PM

    being a meteorologist in the south, i can mostly agree.

    while dr. Gray's '2-4 days out direction and intensity' computer models are statistically better n better and not too bad at all, whole season forecasting leaves alot to be desired. like the PSA test for prostate cancer, how much use is a 51% sure result?....not much.

    like trading, forecasting mostly random events like wind or moisture (or human reaction) in a complicated fluid environment is tough work.

    If technical chart analysis worked perfect we'd all be rich......which in a 'market' cannot happen.......alittle edge is all u can hope for.

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  4. Trader DanDecember 13, 2011 at 9:33 PM

    boatman - well said! that is exactly correct.
    Thanks,
    Dan

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  5. au traderDecember 14, 2011 at 8:45 PM

    my problem with their forecasts is they always had a wide range, like there will be 12-19 named hurricanes... you could predict that every year. worthless. now if they will finally abandon AGW ...

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