S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Stocks have embarked on a relief rally ever since it appeared that the Fed was going to keep interest rates at an ultra low level and the ECB was going to step in and buy up Spanish and Italian Debt. While such actions tend to keep investor fears subdued it does nothing to actually genarate true economic growth. That requires structural reform which includes looking at the tax code, cutting excessive and burdensome regulation, andgetting the central governments to actually exercise some spending restraint.

Traders are of the opinion that the Central Banks will intervene to prevent any worsening of the factors that have precipitated the move away from risk but at the same time, they all realize that serious problems are still lurking in the background and have not really been dealth with.

I am not sure what trigger might set off another round of broad based equity selling but if the market were to move back down towards the recent low near 1075 and fail to hold there, it will drop at least another 100 points before any technical support will surface based solely on the price projection given by the pennant formation.

Equity bulls really need to get the index above the 1250 level to spook the bears and preferably above the falling 50 day moving average at 1275. That seems a tall order given the state of the US economy. Perhaps the best that they are hoping for is to settle for a draw with the bears and bounce the market back and forth in a wide range trade giving the economy time to improve on its own. Then again they might be crossing their fingers waiting for Uncle Ben to give them some sweet whisperings about another dose of QE when he gives his speech at Jackson Hole near the end of this month.

Given the political firestorm that would set off, I doubt we are going to get anything quite that drastic at this point. We would need to see an equity market debacle to given them the courage to do any such thing as that would basically be the last nail in the coffin of the US Dollar. The Fed has been roundly and rightly criticized for the effect that its two previous doses of QE had on the greenback and the subsequent spike in gasoline and food prices which negated any stimulative impact that the easy liquidity might have had, if any.