Thursday, March 31, 2011
Monthly Gold Charts - March 2011
Gold scored an all time high record monthly close!
Gold has now pushed solidly past the 75% Fibonacci retracement level from the 1979 high to the 2001 low in inflation adjusted terms. Note - that this chart uses the government's CPI number which is utterly useless but at least can serve as a type of benchmark against which to compare the current gold price in real terms.
"the government's CPI number which is utterly useless"
ReplyDeleteNo truer words ever spoken.
dan,
ReplyDeletei wanted to run this scenario by you because i was thinking this might become a total train wreck. assume the fed is backed into a corner and starts raising rates...i'm presuming that this would be fatal to the current gold / silver bull run (as well as the current equity "rally")as everyone rushed to liquidate a dollar-based carry trade. am i right in my assessment? what do you think? i'm just trying to game out potential scenarios that are bearish to the metals in order to manage my risk exposure accordingly (i'm long silver, but not yet in size).
as always, thank you very much for your time and effort on the blog. it's the first place i go to in the morning (well...after zero hedge. ;)
beeba :)
"in real terms"?
ReplyDeletemore like "(kinda, sorta, but not really) in real terms".
Dan, I know this is asking too much, but I'll put it out there. I'd love to see the same chart, but using shadowstats cpi figures.
Last time I read, the shadowstats cpi would have the all time gold price between the seven thousand to eight thousand mark, in order to match the 80's high.
I wonder what the fibonacci on that chart would look like. I'm just guessing, but the current price probably wouldn't even be a 23.6% level on such a chart, or maybe between that and 38.2%?
Just wondering out loud.