tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post7842604785519108987..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: The West Greets Gold with More SellingTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger99125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-84135631862650126292014-11-06T20:19:47.904-08:002014-11-06T20:19:47.904-08:00Hi Dan,
nice analysis as usual.
am I right to assu...Hi Dan,<br />nice analysis as usual.<br />am I right to assume that the next important support for gold is only at $1050 or so? so we might have a bounce if we get there...<br />thanks,<br />KrisKrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03139612792773346539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-25598410053298054322014-11-06T07:59:20.552-08:002014-11-06T07:59:20.552-08:00Dan,
You don't think the gold short is a crowd...Dan,<br />You don't think the gold short is a crowded trade now that it is all over the news and we have already had a major drop back in 2013? I see us going lower but seeing less selling pressure and lots of short term buying/ squeeze spikesgreenlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16419480565369548628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-73457652663984719262014-11-06T02:41:54.762-08:002014-11-06T02:41:54.762-08:00Gustav Martincek
"That might just disorient p...Gustav Martincek<br />"That might just disorient people who could benefit from investing long term."<br />How long term do you mean? If you mean a few decades you might be right. It will take that much of time for gold to get into a bull market again. Before that we will visit $300 again. Not tomorrow, not next year, in app. 5 years time. After that a decade of nothingness and than a new bull market might start. I doubt many investors who are reading your comments will be around by that time. This is how cycles work. And this is how the stubbornness of the majority of people keep the cycles working. <br />I was also a stubborn gold bug until the April of 2013! But I am flexible enough to change when I need to....Krishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03139612792773346539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-44045203597547717942014-11-06T01:55:15.298-08:002014-11-06T01:55:15.298-08:00Gold is doing it's best to tell us the world e...Gold is doing it's best to tell us the world economy is stuffed but no one apart from Gold bugs and miners are aware. CBs keep pumping Government debt and stocks which are now part of many CB balance sheets. Common sense says whats going on in the Gold market isn't normal, if all assets were collapsing then one would expect Gold to fall along with everything else. If the big stock markets don't role over soon and Governments magically balance budgets and clear their debt Gold has some serious catching up to do. Could Gold go lower before the turn sure but before long there will be a serious up move.rlmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12918742376497409998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-90261116662220963912014-11-05T23:10:34.221-08:002014-11-05T23:10:34.221-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14592499754632816417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59857953915863565612014-11-05T22:33:20.671-08:002014-11-05T22:33:20.671-08:00Dan, why is there such a divergence between the ph...Dan, why is there such a divergence between the physical and paper markets? Today in the futures market Silver gets taken to the woodshed, yet the U.S. Mint reports it can no longer keep up with demand for Silver Eagles. Any insight you can provide on this topic would be greatly appreciated.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16891956922828410569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-65713066318550164162014-11-05T21:17:05.943-08:002014-11-05T21:17:05.943-08:00Gustav:
Define the term "bash". If you ...Gustav:<br /><br />Define the term "bash". If you mean to shine the light of truth on error, deception, ignorance and falsehood, I plead guilty.<br /><br />When they stop with the incessant blather about why gold moved lower as being part of some nefarious plan by "evil and sinister forces attempting to drive the price lower but which, any day now, it will gloriously free itself from, and soar to the heavens, then I will "bash" as long as they BS.<br /><br />As far as Eric's posts presenting reasons why QE is not having an inflationary impact, I suspect it is more a case with many that they are bewildered that their expectations of runaway inflation are not coming to pass and thus feel the need to lash out at anyone presenting an alternative point of view to attempt to educate them as to the reason.<br /><br />Buy gold if you want to but please to do attempt to use this forum to tell some here to "shut up" and "not disorient the public". <br /><br />What in the world are you even talking about and what gives you the authority to tell me what to write or not to write or some other poster on here that is attempting to explain why those who keep expecting runaway inflation why they are incorrect?<br /><br />There are times when I am tempted to just shut down this entire posting forum to keep the gold bugs from pestering us all. Our stance here is very clear - most of the posters here and many of the readers hold physical gold for insurance. We also understand that very clearly gold is in a bear market. For twenty years, from 1980 - 2000, it was also in a bear market and was essentially a dead asset. <br /><br />If you wish to load the boat, please feel free to do so. If you wish to convince the public to load the boat, please start your own blog and do just that. I am not in going to assume that I can influence the public either way. Those who believe in the metal as insurance will continue to buy some; those who do not, will not.<br /><br />Why can you not leave it at that and stop arguing with the tape? At some point gold will stop going down but that DOES NOT MEAN it is going to go up in a big way either. See 1980-2000. Talk about lost opportunity cost! That is an investment disaster - locking up the majority of one's wealth in an asset class that went absolutely nowhere.<br /><br />That is all I am going to say on this as in answering you I get the distinct impression that I have written the same thing hundreds of times already and quite frankly, I have run out of patience with the gold perma bulls. <br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59176110610701272892014-11-05T21:06:33.383-08:002014-11-05T21:06:33.383-08:00Greenspan ?
I wouldn't mind hearing from Lass...Greenspan ?<br /><br />I wouldn't mind hearing from Lassonde. Somebody defaulted on a Franco revenue stream recently. Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69911555539891498162014-11-05T20:53:53.298-08:002014-11-05T20:53:53.298-08:00I think we are getting very close to a short-term ...I think we are getting very close to a short-term mega trade in gold shares, or for even more oomph something like JNUG or NUGT, which are good for quick exits. But keep steady men, hold your fire till my command, wait till you see the whites of their eyes.......Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350770008155145049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-61739182090911043492014-11-05T20:36:06.661-08:002014-11-05T20:36:06.661-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14592499754632816417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52178576094606375872014-11-05T20:28:25.878-08:002014-11-05T20:28:25.878-08:00No time for lightweights.
You either believe the...No time for lightweights. <br /><br />You either believe there is some black magic in central bank balance sheet expansion or you don't.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-78586814887041948482014-11-05T19:57:12.973-08:002014-11-05T19:57:12.973-08:00YOU are indeed a goldbug IF you are buying gold as...YOU are indeed a goldbug IF you are buying gold as a result of your "money printing" fantasy WHILE the price of gold continues to fall! <br /><br />Here are the 12 rules of Gold Buggism. Ask yourself if these apply to you.<br /><br />1. Gold is a Currency: This is rule number 1. It is not a decorative or industrial metal, it is a permanent store of value, as dictated by Greeks in Lydia around 700 B.C. And, it shall be ever thus.<br /><br />2. The price of gold cannot fall, it can only be manipulated lower: When gold’s price falls, it is an unnatural act. It can only occur as the result of an international cabal of Central Bankers and politicians. Its a conspiracy, and we know who the guilty parties are.<br /><br />3. If the price of gold is rising, it is doing so despite enormous and desperate efforts by manipulators to prevent the rise: This is the corollary to the prior Rule of Gold manipulation. Gold runs up despite the overwhelming opposition to it.<br /><br />4. The world MUST return to the Gold Standard one day: It is inevitable that we will return to a Gold Standard. We all know this to be true. When we compare the size of the money supply to past amounts when there was a Gold Standard, we can derive prices of Gold in the $7,000, $10,000 even $15,000. Hence, we know its cheap even at $2,000.<br /><br />5. Central Bankers are printing money relentlessly, and this can only drive Gold prices higher: NOTE: You must ignore, for the moment, that Gold has not gone higher for the past 2 years as Central Banks around the world have ramped up QE. This only means that ultimately, Gold will go much much higher.<br /><br />6. Gold works whether the economy is good or bad: When we have a red hot economy, Gold is your hedge against inflation. When we have a bad economy, Gold is a safe harbor against collapse. It is a one way trade that never fails!<br /><br />7. Gold will survive after the world economy crumbles: Gold is the ultimate currency, as it has a value that will survive even after the whole world tumbles around you. Get yourself some gold coins and a Glock and you will be just fine when the whole world goes to shit. We welcome the era envisioned in the movie Mad Max.<br /><br />8. Never admit that Gold is essentially a sucker’s bet: Never discuss how in the last century, gold has run up only be to trounced in repeated massive sell offs (always blame rule #2 for this). Do not discuss how this has happened in 1915-20, 1941, 1947, 1951-66, 1974-76 1981, 1983-85, 1987-2000 and 2008.<br /><br />9. Gold is a rejection of government, and their control of fiat money and finance: There are no printing presses that produce gold, it is finite, natural and God created. How much we scrape out of the ground each year is limited, and the only variable to the old equation. (Just ignore Man’s natural tendency to organize into to City-States over the past 12,000 years).<br /><br />10. All Gold discussions must contain ominous macro forecasts: Your description of why Gold is going higher must consist of spurious correlations, unprovable predictions, and a guarded expectation of bad things in the future. Avoid empirical data at all costs.<br /><br />11. Gold is always rallying in one currency or another: Sure, it may be down 30% in Dollars, the reserve currency it is priced in, but you can always find a currency falling faster than it does and claim you own it in that denomination. Last week, it was up in Japanese Yen. This week, it is up in Zimbabwe dollars.<br /><br />12. China & India know the value of Gold; the Western world does not: The massive buying of gold by consumers in Chindia reflects the culture, intelligence and investing savvy of the people in these countries. The West doesn’t get it, and it is their loss.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-53644056082639051202014-11-05T19:39:57.988-08:002014-11-05T19:39:57.988-08:00Thank you.Thank you.Bright aurumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16783154684850533212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-13470034269513755192014-11-05T19:02:14.499-08:002014-11-05T19:02:14.499-08:00Vein? Those are in your arms and legs and wot not....Vein? Those are in your arms and legs and wot not.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350770008155145049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-77996153662892396972014-11-05T18:41:16.046-08:002014-11-05T18:41:16.046-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14592499754632816417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-22869517633542353342014-11-05T18:30:51.493-08:002014-11-05T18:30:51.493-08:00Gustav;
Here is the crux of the matter - there is...Gustav;<br /><br />Here is the crux of the matter - there is a very large, very vocal and very obnoxious contingency of the gold bug community whose entire reason for existence is to PROVE that the federal government, through its proxies, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs in particular, are working secretly behind the scenes to deliberately suppress the price of gold and that they do this, by selling thousands of gold futures contracts at the Comex.<br /><br />When gold bugs therefore speak of price manipulation, they are speaking about bullion banks "smashing the price of gold to discredit it".<br /><br />I have written about this over and over again, but have noted that during the current bear market in gold, it has not been bullion banks that are selling but rather hedge funds and other large speculative interests. <br /><br />This is VASTLY DIFFERENT than claiming that the federal government is smashing the price of gold.<br /><br />Can you see the subtle shift in their vernacular? Now, the culprits are not just the bullion banks - because that is easily refuted as I have done often enough, but also hedge funds, HFT's, algos, etc. <br /><br />In other words, as long as gold goes lower, there is some form of manipulation involved in their mind. Such is not the case when gold is moving higher.<br /><br />that is duplicitous, deceitful and hypocritical. It also betrays a gross ignorance of the nature of today's modern futures markets.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-20153526310228298862014-11-05T18:22:24.983-08:002014-11-05T18:22:24.983-08:00 I am a Christian myself thus I hope to receive sa... I am a Christian myself thus I hope to receive salvation, I believe in The truth and The way and The life, and I love God and man for what they are (mostly a mystery) and try to do His will and intent for me and mankind, my Christian brothers in particular. It is the {http://fofoa.blogspot.com} website that relieved me from the daily strife and anguish to perform against the others in the material world and gave me a peace of mind and longterm perspective. So I recommend it to you and I hope you find it illuminating.<br />And yes long-term exists as one gets close to eternity only mens`desires are vein and fleeting.Bright aurumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16783154684850533212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-31617919239936340802014-11-05T18:16:01.588-08:002014-11-05T18:16:01.588-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14592499754632816417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-63209707619412721382014-11-05T18:06:54.484-08:002014-11-05T18:06:54.484-08:00Probably quite soon there will be a violent rise i...Probably quite soon there will be a violent rise in the gold shares, but I don't think it will last. It is quite likely that Ari is right in the first part but the second part more dubious.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350770008155145049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-91131983457482790062014-11-05T18:05:55.249-08:002014-11-05T18:05:55.249-08:00Eric I thought a goldbug was someone that invests ...Eric I thought a goldbug was someone that invests in gold all their life for any reason? Not just over worries of hyper-inflation from money printing.<br /><br />Just because an investor chooses to invest in gold until the central banks can prove they can stop printing money does not make them a goldbug does it?<br /><br />You use that goldbug word a little too freely on people that invest in gold.<br /><br />Not every investor in gold worships gold as you seem to think.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-13799455781480212752014-11-05T18:01:57.994-08:002014-11-05T18:01:57.994-08:00I thought a goldbug was someone that invests in go...I thought a goldbug was someone that invests in gold all their life for any reason Eric?<br /><br />Just because an investor chooses to invest in gold until the central banks can prove they can stop printing money does not make them a goldbug does it?<br /><br />You use that goldbug word a little too freely on people that invest in gold.<br /><br />Not every investor in gold worships gold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56740134035997154322014-11-05T17:59:42.294-08:002014-11-05T17:59:42.294-08:00The GDXJ index has fallen from 170 to 22.7 today. ...The GDXJ index has fallen from 170 to 22.7 today. Utterly amazingly! At some point soon it will be the investment of a lifetime. But not quite yet. If gold went to 700 what would it be then? 3 or perhaps 5? Don't think it will happen.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350770008155145049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37534360448835270402014-11-05T17:42:45.406-08:002014-11-05T17:42:45.406-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bright aurumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16783154684850533212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-5778005193426773492014-11-05T17:41:14.054-08:002014-11-05T17:41:14.054-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14592499754632816417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-686744252995084312014-11-05T17:39:38.603-08:002014-11-05T17:39:38.603-08:00Thanks Dan, what you say makes sense. I appreciate...Thanks Dan, what you say makes sense. I appreciate your comments.<br /><br />Money printing stopped with the dollar now, so makes some sense that gold goes lower against the dollar.<br /><br />I am kinda thinking gold would eventually rise against most currencies longer term as an alternative to holding paper currencies which constantly look for ways to devalue themselves to create inflation.<br /><br />Guess we will see if investors connect those dots ever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com