tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post5387721819624634502..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Gold Taking Cues from Forex Market MovementsTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger78125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-30435348411599244702014-11-19T09:43:08.840-08:002014-11-19T09:43:08.840-08:00Somebody made a small fortune on those moves or lo...Somebody made a small fortune on those moves or lost their shirt today.<br /><br />Interesting day so far.DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-73823816833737633432014-11-19T09:27:03.848-08:002014-11-19T09:27:03.848-08:00Mind blasting! I looked again and it's only do...Mind blasting! I looked again and it's only down $2. Que pasa? One bogie down and two to go: Fed Minutes and Indian curbs. If weathered, gold to $1250. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350770008155145049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-11829265010299777302014-11-19T09:22:10.577-08:002014-11-19T09:22:10.577-08:00Gold down $20 but now only $8, back above the magi...Gold down $20 but now only $8, back above the magic number of $1180. What does that say? Fed minutes not relevant, but new Indian curbs are another threat. Indian government, crooked as bent hairpin may be holding this card back for double whammy effect. Where gold sits at the end of the day is critical if we are to go through $1200. If all storms are weathered, expect gold to go to $1250. It's in the mood for love! Then, maheuresement mon Cherie, down we go again. Can we catch these swings for massive profits? It's the timing, see, that's the rub.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350770008155145049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-89467207334435817612014-11-19T08:28:05.319-08:002014-11-19T08:28:05.319-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350770008155145049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71179867507903222262014-11-19T07:53:09.589-08:002014-11-19T07:53:09.589-08:00Keep an eye on wage growth.Keep an eye on wage growth.Lorenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01786341405874071932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-81998349855590596402014-11-19T07:37:25.410-08:002014-11-19T07:37:25.410-08:00Eric.
The point is that CPI now doesn't mean ...Eric.<br /><br />The point is that CPI now doesn't mean the same thing as it did 20 years ago. Shadow stats merely recalculates CPI using the same methodology as was used originally so you get a like for like comparison of historic rates. Understand?<br /><br />I'm not a short term trader so I don't trade on any of this. I like to understand the fundamental picture and what is really going on. So I don't place much faith in government stats.<br /><br />Shadow stats also quotes different measures of inflation. Why don't you tell me where you think John Williams calculations are wrong then? The 10% figure I chose was CPI inflation today if it were calculated in the same way as the government did in 1980!<br /><br />I think you've completely missed the point. Yes there is a swap of bonds for reserves but the reserves came from nowhere. They were printed into existence . The balance sheet shows the assets are increasing, I don't see why you find this difficult to understand.<br /><br />The key is that the for QE not to be inflationary the fed would have to ask for their money back once their assets matured (like the banks who did hold them would have). In fact they just roll the debt over and it's never paid back. This is why it's inflationary, the balance sheet increases in size and is never drained.<br /><br />The fed are essentially trying to do what the banks were doing ie lend money. Difference is that when banks create money they ask for it back and the debt is paid and the newly created money is removed from the money supply. In this instance the fed never asks for it back so the money supply increases permanently, voila inflation!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17051711597631147977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-42751898958348513732014-11-19T07:31:29.433-08:002014-11-19T07:31:29.433-08:00Lol...I'm walking around with a Big 50 in my p...Lol...I'm walking around with a Big 50 in my pocket just in case I need to barter my way onto a dog sled enroute to an igloo saloon somewhere. ;-)<br /><br />And yep, Buffalo 'Haze it is.DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-46142757832507187632014-11-19T07:28:51.244-08:002014-11-19T07:28:51.244-08:00Thanks Dan. I do completely get your point but I a...Thanks Dan. I do completely get your point but I am not a trader so I have the luxury of having an opinion. Like you say, the markets don't care what your opinion is, bet against them and you will lose a lot of money.<br /><br />When I comment on here I do so more as someone looking at longer term trends so day to day or week to week or month to month movements aren't that important to me. If I was in the market every day like you guys I wouldn't care who was right and who was wrong, all I'd be interested in is where the market was going next whether i agreed with it or not. <br /><br />Please bear this in mind when reading my posts. Cheers.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17051711597631147977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-22334756011852152492014-11-19T07:16:25.459-08:002014-11-19T07:16:25.459-08:00If we get through a negative poll for the Swiss go...If we get through a negative poll for the Swiss gold referendum, and then further curbs on gold importation, gold could trundle on to 1220-1250. Then, watch out below, especially for the gold shares that have already put in massive gains.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350770008155145049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-64300595898652655522014-11-19T07:08:23.514-08:002014-11-19T07:08:23.514-08:0077, why is that the 'biggie' for gold toda...77, why is that the 'biggie' for gold today? We know exactly what they are going to say, which is precisely nothing. Fed's policy is simple: don't rock the boat. Greenspan taught us that, and admitted recently that FEDSPEAK was all about pretending to say something with circumlocution, oxymorons, and downright gibberish, but actually saying nothing at all. Meanwhile the whole world was hanging on his every utterance, but he is now considered outré and almost senile. Not to mention the fact that all the members of the Fed have their assigned roles to nudge and cajole the markets by nursing those laughable 'expectations', and have agreed beforehand what is going to be in those so-called 'minutes'. What actually goes on in those meetings is anybody's guess. Maybe sometimes sheer nail-biting panic, like "gee folks, we're still levitating by managing those expectations, but don't say anything to upset the apple cart."Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350770008155145049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69452417615344112952014-11-19T06:58:14.198-08:002014-11-19T06:58:14.198-08:00Dominic;
You would do well to heed the words of e...Dominic;<br /><br />You would do well to heed the words of eric webber here. No one will ever make a dime basing trading decisions on Mr. Williams from Shadowstats' work. <br />I assume you have been coming here for a while to read but it occurs to me that you are not understanding what I am writing here or what some of the posters are echoing and that is ths:<br /><br />The market trades on sentiment which direct money flows. Get on the right side of that and make money. Get on the wrong side and lose money. What do you want to do? Profit or Lose money?<br />Traders use the numbers that the government gives us. One does not have to personally believe those numbers but any would be investor or trader who ignores them, such as the followers of shadowstats, might as well be spitting into the face of a hurricane. <br />The hurricane is unaffected and all one gets for their disdain is a wet face. <br />deal with the data that the market deals with whether or not you agree with it. Following some set of data from a private analyst which is so at odds with the numbers that the investment world uses is a sure fire recipe for failure.<br /><br />And one last bit of advice - stop looking for inflation until the market becomes worried about it. The TIPS spread is the collective voice of the market in that regards - ignore it at your own peril.<br /><br />I will leave it at that as I do not have the time to try to help you any further other than to say this one last time to you:<br />Check your opinion at the door of the markets and leave it there.<br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-65846271400443955072014-11-19T06:51:30.968-08:002014-11-19T06:51:30.968-08:00Marty;
We all learn best through the school of ha...Marty;<br /><br />We all learn best through the school of hard knocks Marty. I guess it is just human nature. <br />The big thing I have tried to do is to teach folks who visit here how to read the markets and hopefully either profit as a result, or at the very least, minimize losses.<br />I do not always get it 100% right. ,No one does and those who say they do are flat out liars. But one thing we can try to do is stay on the right side of a move or get out of the way of one that can inflict some serious damage.<br /><br />Most gold perma bulls, especially those who came to the party three years ago, are sitting on tremendous losses that they will probably never recover from. It was all so avoidable if they had just learned how to tune out and ignore the carnival barkers that infest the world of precious metals.<br />Tread lightly in the markets, don't get careless or overconfident, stay humble and make a habit of staying in tune with the charts and you will be just fine.<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59679572794510312982014-11-19T06:41:43.414-08:002014-11-19T06:41:43.414-08:00lol!lol!Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-14503729292923308282014-11-19T06:13:33.604-08:002014-11-19T06:13:33.604-08:00This is indeed very alarming! I think you should ...This is indeed very alarming! I think you should buy some gold!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-61104775527524646452014-11-19T06:12:12.908-08:002014-11-19T06:12:12.908-08:00Are you living near Buffalo NY? I live right down...Are you living near Buffalo NY? I live right down the road in Rochester .... so glad we are missing it ...LOLAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56699359408022079042014-11-19T06:06:10.235-08:002014-11-19T06:06:10.235-08:00Thanks, I'm laying low and relaxing inside nic...Thanks, I'm laying low and relaxing inside nice and warm.<br />The blue-ish colored lightning that accompanied the heavy snow was kind of surreal to see/hear while heavy snow was falling.<br />The prospect of heavy winds at some point blowing around 5-6 feet of fresh snow will complete the snow globe effect.DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-46346096077318425562014-11-19T06:05:01.581-08:002014-11-19T06:05:01.581-08:00Dominic,
First; you are using data to make inves...Dominic, <br /><br />First; you are using data to make investment decisions that NO ONE else in the market places uses. There is NOT one Billionaire investor/trader that gives one jack squat about Shadow Stats. This makes it irrelevant. <br /><br />Second; The government is not hiding anything. They compute the inflation stats for any basket of goods that you can think of. They know what is going on; it is not all about the standard CPI. And, they use the PPI as an even better illustration of what's going on. No one is trying to hide anything from you. <br /><br />Third; For crying out loud -- walk outside and take a look, do you honestly think we have 10% inflation? If we’ve had 10% inflation rates, as Shadow Stats suggests, then a $20,000 car in 2008 would now cost about $35,000. Is this what you are noticing? Nope – go look at the stats and you’ll see that there is almost NO change in the price of a new car from 2008 to 2014. And, in electronics – prices are falling tremendously. Food has fluctuated all over the place – as it generally does.<br /><br />Forth; QE is not money printing and does not increase the supply of money. The purpose of QE is to flatten out the rates on the high end of the maturity curve. The Fed Funds rate affects the short end, and QE affects the long end. It is all about encouraging lending – which could theoretically spur economic movement and higher inflation rates. The problem is that if lending is already saturated, banks will not be motivated to lend, and the public will not be motivated to barrow. QE really just helps increase the saturation point of lending – because it brings future lending into the present. This means that on the back end of QE you have a drop off in lending and therefore disinflation/deflationary pressures. THiS is what we are currently seeing. Stop obsessing over the balance sheet – it means nothing. The inflationary bet on QE is associated with the idea that it is increasing new financial assets to the private sector. BUT, this is completely FALSE. The assets already existed! They are merely swapping reserves for bonds. They are giving the banks a “checking account” instead of a “savings account” – so What changed? Nothing. Just the duration and rate of the paper. The number of assets in the system is the exact same.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-30756643717189518232014-11-19T05:31:25.134-08:002014-11-19T05:31:25.134-08:00Stay safe buddyStay safe buddyEric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-39546407270506453102014-11-19T05:27:28.439-08:002014-11-19T05:27:28.439-08:00"TD unknowingly will be marking the bottom in..."TD unknowingly will be marking the bottom in silver and gold in the months to come."<br /><br />I'm pretty sure he'll (we'll) see the trend turning. There's no need to predict/boast about an exact bottom call on here.<br /><br />And yes, we will see. $100 oil again in our lifetime and it could happen rather quickly for reasons now unknown.<br /><br />And yes, Japan is headed into uncharted territory in this modern monetary experiment.<br /><br />I see ZH is crowing how they foresaw JPY 120 back in Sept. when no one else did.<br />Huh, seriously? DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-72502959689689243342014-11-19T05:27:20.093-08:002014-11-19T05:27:20.093-08:00soybeans got some technical selling on 1st close &...soybeans got some technical selling on 1st close <20dma in over a month.<br /> oct low to recent hi: 38.2% = 1019'6 (breached) 50.0% = 999'2<br /><br />bottom line ags: Meal basis is still firm, we’re still exporting and crushing soybeans, but the farmer has sold a lot of grain on the rally, and all of that supply might be finding its way to desired parties. We need exports for corn and wheat or swoon we will.<br /><br />the biggie for gold today:<br />Nov 19 14:00ET FOMC Minutes<br /><br />Dan posted the chart for AUD/USD other day, a big oooops today:<br />AUDUSD has posted 8 week lows of 0.8621 this morning after continuing declines in the price of iron ore has put the skids under the rally that yesterday got a helping hand back down from 0.8750 by RBA gov Glenn Stevens.<br /><br />cheerio pip pip!<br /><br /><br />77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05390025091154704970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56313362855108913472014-11-19T05:15:22.983-08:002014-11-19T05:15:22.983-08:00Sorry, off-topic...but a c-r-a-z-y amount of snow ...Sorry, off-topic...but a c-r-a-z-y amount of snow is happening where I live...unreal!<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-19/stunning-photos-record-snow-covering-upstate-new-york-100-total-inches-snow-expected<br /><br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52447261254312705382014-11-19T03:09:01.933-08:002014-11-19T03:09:01.933-08:00Eric
First anyone who relies soley on statistics ...Eric<br /><br />First anyone who relies soley on statistics published by governments need their head checking so it seems to me they you have been hoodwinked. Personally I like to read around and get my facts as figures from various sources so I dot rely on one potentially biased source of information.<br /><br />The us government regularly changes it's definition of inflation which is why when you look at a long term chart it appears to be stable.<br /><br />Anyone can make up a bunch of statistics and claim pretty much whatever they want. Shadow stats at least tries to offer a more reliable form of statistics. It sounds like you don't like to hear bad news well that's fine, keep believing your government statistics. According to your government your unemployment is now around 6%. We all know this is only because they don't count long term unemployed as unemployed!<br /><br />Honestly some posters on here beggar belief.<br /><br />As for my example of Japan go look at at a longer term chart and you will see that inflation has picked up recently and there is a definite trend upwards. I read a very interesting g article about a year ago which explained the complete history of Japan's QE and why it hadn't produced inflation but predicted this would change it the next few years. I'll have to try find it.<br /><br />"QE isn't inflationary". Please don't insult my intelligence. Increasing the money supply is by it's very definition inflation. What we don't have right now is velocity of money. I personally think a lot of people don't realise that a lot of QE has in some ways taken the place of the credit creation the banks are not doing at the moment. This is one reason why we haven't seen inflation... Yet.<br /><br />QE is only not inflationary if the Fed don't roll over the debt they printed. What we are seeing now is stealth QE as they are not letting their securities mature. The balance sheet has quadrupled and will no doubt increase even more. They will never be able to shrink it materially.<br /><br />Have a good day.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17051711597631147977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85488592176097597802014-11-19T02:32:32.313-08:002014-11-19T02:32:32.313-08:00M, exactly. That's why the debt needs to be re...M, exactly. That's why the debt needs to be remitted, defaulted on one way or another. It's unserviceable.<br /><br />Okay, so now what happens when there is no more odious debt burden? No more debt saturation? It's then a positive real rate can exist, because the debt reservoir is empty. <br /><br />If you insist on staying in gold at that point you'll be eating your capital, eating your seed corn. Whereas if you chose to get a positive real yield and if you have critical mass, then you can live off the interest ncome and leave your principal alone, maybe add to it. This is how prudent savers and Giants behave. Grumps LaBastardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14516927214877780910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7200570964153875302014-11-18T21:02:12.649-08:002014-11-18T21:02:12.649-08:00Somebody is turning into a real nut case. Oil shou...Somebody is turning into a real nut case. Oil should be the topic of discussion. Will oil ever see the $100 mark again in our lifetimes? It is amazing that lower oil prices will help lower consumer prices but destroy governments.<br /><br />Pooh'in is another lose cannon everyone ignores.<br /><br />Germany is part of a convoluted whole, if they have money, you can bet the Euro bank wants it.<br /><br />It is over for Japan. Treading water for years, now they are going down into the drain.<br /><br />An interest rise anywhere around the globe will mark the end of making bond payments affordable and that entire scenario will have to play out with countries defaulting one by one. Will not happen tomorrow but by 2020 every downfall will be in full swing.<br /><br />Those miner bargain shoppers are early, they will begin to dump a week or so into December.<br /><br />TD unknowingly will be marking the bottom in silver and gold in the months to come. That will be a good time to stock up on a few krugs and junk silver or silver rounds. In the meantime, go with the flow into regular equities. Gold and miners just don't have much more room to fall and is a waste of time trying to play them.<br /><br />Those volatile swings are wild but no one said it was going to be easy. anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13458537409932488443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58117626999151237622014-11-18T20:04:37.892-08:002014-11-18T20:04:37.892-08:00M
Don't think so.
US treasury obligations are...M<br />Don't think so. <br />US treasury obligations are fixed rate and term. <br /><br />So what happens if t bill rates jump to day 10% overnight? The resale value of the bond drops a bunch so they will be held to term when they are redeemed at face value. <br />New bonds are them issued at current interest rates. <br /><br />This it will be years before USA faces any significantly higher interest payments. By then they will have changed to laws to give them an out our something. <br /><br />Don't think the USA bankruptcy the doomers expect is high probability. Mike Ehlerthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03796788820435662856noreply@blogger.com