tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post5293595366480948885..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Bonds Might Have Topped Out, for GoodTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-10967613489011517602012-09-16T22:02:55.562-07:002012-09-16T22:02:55.562-07:00I give the Fed another 6 months before they start ...I give the Fed another 6 months before they start buying bonds again... First they need the politics to resolve the Fiscal Cliff before the Fed intervenes again in the bond market. It makes no sense for the Fed to do anything until there is a clearer vision on that issue. Second, the Fed will run out of short term treasuries by the end of this year, which will effectively put an end to its Operation Twist. In 6 months from now I predict that the Fed will buy 40 billion/months of MBS + another 40 billion/month of bonds. At this stage of the monetary system crisis, 40 billion per month is not be enough. This is a half measure meant to buy time again until the politics get their house in order in relation to the elections and the fiscal cliff. Érichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02201219351053623462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69092438363551710952012-09-15T09:01:32.781-07:002012-09-15T09:01:32.781-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.sheepshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02710650142054648006noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-17128708605359467122012-09-15T05:56:59.670-07:002012-09-15T05:56:59.670-07:00Dan please,
what do you make of Harvey Organ'...Dan please, <br />what do you make of Harvey Organ's analysis of the COT report?<br />"Conclusion: Terribly bearish as the bankers went net short by another 17,705 contracts. I believe this is the 4 or 5th straight COT report that the bankers have continually gone additionally net short."<br />He seems to watch only the additional short position of the commercial. Do you agree with this reading?<br />Thanks,Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-21585797972763203912012-09-14T19:20:40.762-07:002012-09-14T19:20:40.762-07:00Maybe time for them to manufacture a reason to rus...Maybe time for them to manufacture a reason to rush to safety. Won't a Rising rate on the long bond crush the budget????KDPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07693330139875441255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-84581193601608071692012-09-14T12:12:10.587-07:002012-09-14T12:12:10.587-07:00With bonds falling and interest rates rising, I wo...With bonds falling and interest rates rising, I wonder how real interest rates (when rising) will affect the price of gold in a QE3 environment? It was shown in the link below that when real interest rates were less than 2%, gold price rises. If we see bonds falling and $gold price rising, then we'll get a sense of the inflation rate brought on by QE3. Gold...get you some!<br /><br />http://seekingalpha.com/article/478891-gold-s-critical-metric-real-interest-rates chris brittonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03430619977762904501noreply@blogger.com