tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post498788634696481876..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Gold Commitment of Traders Explains surge in Open InterestTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-72593530853698435872013-04-24T00:40:46.289-07:002013-04-24T00:40:46.289-07:00Don't know why I cannot seem to insert replies...Don't know why I cannot seem to insert replies immediately following comments that are themselves replies!<br /><br />Anyway @ Arnie:<br /><br />I think that it was Dan himself who said recently that (paraphrased) <br /><br />Indeed the shorts don't have the gold they sell, but then the longs don't have the cash to pay in full for the contracts they buy, either.<br /><br />So, how much money would it take to push the price up to $1540?<br /><br />More than the longs can come up with! Right away, anyway.<br /><br />SLLSlow Loris Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03904505579567180085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-38086899279309035222013-04-22T19:49:06.024-07:002013-04-22T19:49:06.024-07:00I would like to quote Theodore (Ted) Butler from t...I would like to quote Theodore (Ted) Butler from the article, The Good, Bad and Ugly;<br />"Every day, silver (and gold) investors are subject to whatever daily pricing the big COMEX paper hangers decide to dictate, irrespective of what the real SUPPLY/DEMAND fundamentals would suggest." <br />http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/good-bad-and-ugly-10511Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10366683894545649989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-46599138057817155032013-04-22T19:32:42.288-07:002013-04-22T19:32:42.288-07:00Hi Dan! Can you or some else here help me understa...Hi Dan! Can you or some else here help me understand;<br />1. As you mentioned, robust physical demand below 1360 was able to but a floor in gold (for now). I could be wrong, but was there not robust physical demand even at higher levels. With respect to silver for example, was there not articles coming out left and right regarding record sales of physical before the current lower levels? Yet, why was the astonishing physical demand (record sales) at higher levels not able to put a floor at the 1520 level for gold and 26 for silver?<br />2. Is it truly, physical demand putting the floor or the culprits that drove the prices down with their sell orders, closed their orders and cashed in for profits below 1360?<br /><br />Physical demand from what I'm guessing would have an impact on the paper price in the longer term, but the short term price action is determined by paper right? Hence, if it was the hedge funds that managed the price down, they probably also managed the floor, and the physical demand did not have influence over the price management in the short term?<br /><br />Respectfully,Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10366683894545649989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-36028534362615338752013-04-22T16:14:07.372-07:002013-04-22T16:14:07.372-07:00Alison,
George Soros himself said he buys gold whe...Alison,<br />George Soros himself said he buys gold when a deflationary currency devaluation stagflation takes hold very similar to Carter years? <br /><br />If you get a depression (which we have been in for 5 years regardless of what the MSM has been feeding you for dinner) and countries all over the world have increased accessible Money Supply, and the need to build Bank Balance sheet has not performed in fighting the deflationary, policy, what is next? <br />Full fleged increase in the Velocity of Money...They will now begin a release from Banks to business'. <br />But....<br />There is no demad..therefore, they will create it..<br />After that I don't care how many PHD's say no inflation....it is currency induced cost pull inflationary!!!!!Physical gold goes up...currencies go down...black markets erupt..(See Bitcoin..but easily bounced)<br />Thanks Dan. If you can keep us up to date on phsical movement we appreciate it. Appears it is steadily finding it's way into the MINERZWhite Wolfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13965194184809848345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82576746961490973492013-04-22T14:34:29.343-07:002013-04-22T14:34:29.343-07:00deflation is coming and will knock out the gold bu...deflation is coming and will knock out the gold bull dan. <br /><br />http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1366640460.phpAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10972999338827336366noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59655305579038887572013-04-21T15:17:03.372-07:002013-04-21T15:17:03.372-07:00@ arnie
I tried to respond further up in the comm...@ arnie<br /><br />I tried to respond further up in the comments, but couldn't get it to work.<br /><br />Arnie, you write as if the Chinese are active on the COMEX. They are not. Not the Chinese government nor private Chinese importers.<br /><br />The COMEX is just a US side-show to the London Bullion Market Over the Counter 'market', which is not a market at all - it is just a name for all of the private deals involving unallocated gold but which can in principle be changed to allocated metal at the request of the buyer.<br /><br />The Chinese don't even use the LBM OtC channel to buy, although they probably do hedge temporary exposure there, as when purchased gold is in transit. They deal, privately, with bullion banks and if possible directly with refiners.<br /><br />That is why no one who knows has to reveal how much gold the Chinese government has been buying in recent years. All that is known publicly is how much gold is moving through Hong Kong into China, and much if not most of that consists of 1 kilo bars, not LBM Good Delivery 400 ounce bars that the government may want in order to eventually back the yuan.<br /><br />Just why would the 'Chinese', government or private companies, be tempted to kill the goose that has been laying all those golden eggs for them by somehow demanding an immediate 500 tons in order to destroy the COMEX? <br /><br />Anyway, all those massive HFT short sales that crashed the COMEX price have been long since covered by the instigators and passed on to others at enormous profits. <br /><br />Slow Loris Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03904505579567180085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-8973682638700479562013-04-21T14:41:36.276-07:002013-04-21T14:41:36.276-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17092809172875541285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-18122335983624625282013-04-21T14:29:01.119-07:002013-04-21T14:29:01.119-07:00Dan, I both follow and appreciate your analysis of...Dan, I both follow and appreciate your analysis of the Friday Commitment of Traders release for Tuesday April 16th. The spreading, as you point out, accounts for virtually all the increase in open interest from the Tuesday prior April 9th.<br />The CME daily futures report for April 9th shows an open interest of 416,513, and the same report for April 16th shows an open interest of 413,083.<br />I do realize that above daily report numbers are for futures only but would have thought that there would have been an increase as well.<br />How to reconcile the Disaggregated Futures Only report with the Disaggregated Futures-and-Options -Combined report would be my query.<br />Any help would be most appreciated!!!!!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17092809172875541285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-42949294483149090582013-04-21T12:37:01.337-07:002013-04-21T12:37:01.337-07:00Thanks!
As they say, no matter what the price is, ...Thanks!<br />As they say, no matter what the price is, as long as it moves and we trade the right direction :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-76780616643663548712013-04-21T10:49:58.872-07:002013-04-21T10:49:58.872-07:00On main street their is alot of fear. Not fear of ...On main street their is alot of fear. Not fear of markets but being able to feed families, make enough on savings to live without starving or losing homes or their ability to get ahead. Ah, but the supremeist only see it from their perspective, and hence they think the stock market holds the key to keeping the society functioning right now. How they have been able to deflate everything but the stock market has truly been a feat I could not have forseen. But asyou say the grand experiment is far from over. Recent moves by Japan show that maybe the experiment is accelerating. If it continues while the US labor participation rate continues, all the MSM shouting will not keep the American people from complete destruction. At that point meltdowns of paper will take days not months. That point of time is nearing with desperate acts of recent days.<br />Right now very little confidence in government leaders exist, take away entitlements (or government ponzi thievery is what I prefer to call the SS fraud, medicare and medicaid programs)and this gets closer to occuring. I have lost any and all respect for our government and financial leaders. I know many who feel the same way. The Zirp Repression will eventually cause turmoil enough to flatten our country. Still amazed and angered. Thanks for providing an outlet and education Dan.White Wolfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13965194184809848345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-33597934922785849842013-04-21T08:51:02.510-07:002013-04-21T08:51:02.510-07:00headsuplads;
thanks for pointing that out to me.....headsuplads;<br /><br />thanks for pointing that out to me... I must have had 2008 on the brain for some reason... yes, it is August 2011...<br /><br />DanTrader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37361627393945016702013-04-21T08:50:05.313-07:002013-04-21T08:50:05.313-07:00Hubert;
I honestly do not have an answer to that ...Hubert;<br /><br />I honestly do not have an answer to that question. Price predictions have never been my forte as a trader. I have to react to what I believe the charts and price action itself is telling me what others are thinking in regards to market sentiment.<br /><br />I learned this the hard way through experience trading. I would have a profitable long position on, for example, and price would reach a certain level that I thought "No way this market can go any higher than this" so out I would go from my profitable position only to watch the market continue heading even higher and higher as I sat on the sidelines kicking myself.<br /><br />Same on the downside on some of my profitable short trades in various markets. Fortunately, these were mistakes I made mainly early in my trading career and thus learned not to try to target various levels from that point forward.<br /><br />The difference with gold is that trying to ascertain a price based on fundamentals is very, very tricky because gold, unlike soybeans or wheat or corn, etc. is an alternative currency. Who can really say what price people are willing to pay for an ounce of it if they believe the monetary system is failing? I never lived in Argentina but my guess is that had I been there back when their currency was imploding years ago, I would not have cared what I had to pay for an ounce of gold as long as I could have gotten rid of my pesos in exchange for it.<br /><br />The truth is the real difficulty all of us are having is ascertaining whether deflation is winning this battle or the Central BAnks' reflation efforts are able to ward it off and induce inflation instead. <br /><br />This is why I believe the key to knowing where gold is ultimately going to go is CONFIDENCE. When that goes, and who among us can say with any certainty, what sort of confluence of events can cause it to vaporize, then gold will finally respond.<br /><br />In the interim, it will move based on demand. I want to see investment demand come back into gold on the part of the large speculators such as the hedge funds before I will feel that the worst is completely over.<br /><br />AS stated before, physical demand is astonishing robust down below $1360. That has put a floor in the market for now. In itself, however, that is not enough to take the market sharply higher. It is one thing to bottom a market; it is another thing to turn it immediately into a strong sharp upward rally that never looks back. The latter requires FEAR and right now global investors are obviously not concerned or fearful about much of anything besides falling commodity prices in general based on the CCI.<br /><br />The point in all this is that we are all going to learn exactly how this grand experiment in Central Bank alchemy plays itself out!Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-32741078048459640692013-04-21T07:50:10.716-07:002013-04-21T07:50:10.716-07:00How do you know it ridiculous if you don't kno...How do you know it ridiculous if you don't know his reasoning behind it? Just sayin'seanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03383810213841234946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-25566628773951658692013-04-21T07:20:01.111-07:002013-04-21T07:20:01.111-07:00I guess it will all boil down to this. When gold t...I guess it will all boil down to this. When gold takes out 1900, all hell will break loose to the upside. Until then, its in the mess thats its in. So there really is nothing more to add. See everyone at 1900. arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17597016551120682781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-20221663053847076992013-04-21T05:33:50.285-07:002013-04-21T05:33:50.285-07:00Can't blame you for this statement. Seems he w...Can't blame you for this statement. Seems he went all-in with strange price forecats recently, but I just like to remember the core of his message which is : take some precautions and have some real assets such as gold in case of a systemic collapse event.<br /><br />Now, he is convinced that paper market's days are counted.<br />That's why I asked Dan his take about this.<br />I'd humbly think that all this mess will end-up in a catastrophy someday, but sooner rather than later? Before they strike gold and send it down even further towards 1200? I'm no specialist, but I'm not making this bet on my trading account :)<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-18064093832220029812013-04-21T03:03:58.193-07:002013-04-21T03:03:58.193-07:00Thank you Dan, very interesting analysis!Thank you Dan, very interesting analysis!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09784593161797000595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-43962817763024934232013-04-21T03:00:19.704-07:002013-04-21T03:00:19.704-07:00Well making a call for $50.000 gold is outright ri...Well making a call for $50.000 gold is outright ridiculous. Especially when it is on the verge of a collapse. If he is honest than sg else must be going on in his mind...<br /><br /><br />krishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14708228251692501582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-12563375061079101732013-04-21T01:57:26.187-07:002013-04-21T01:57:26.187-07:00P.S : I'm asking, because short of a spectacul...P.S : I'm asking, because short of a spectacular event,<br /><br />- massive confiscation of depositors Cyprus style in US or Europe<br />- massive devaluation in a key western country over weekend<br />- sudden krach of the dollar<br />- sudden major loss of confidence in the fiat (but it requires a strong trigger for the sleepy lemmings to Wake up)<br />- explosion of the gold paper market due to massive physical buying and no more gold to provide<br />- sudden revaluation of gold price by major central banks<br /><br />, I don't see much hope for the bulls on the short and middle term.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-14460602105064861522013-04-21T01:29:25.457-07:002013-04-21T01:29:25.457-07:00Dan, I have one simple question but imho important...Dan, I have one simple question but imho important really.<br /><br />Analysts expectations vary from 1000 $ and less to 50.000 $ as you know.<br />Main divergence seems to be : is the fractional gold reserve system about to end, or will there be still a lot of time with both paper and physical markets? <br /><br />Do you have an opinion on this specific point?<br />Wishing you a great sunday,<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-6239470365047129472013-04-21T01:20:04.596-07:002013-04-21T01:20:04.596-07:00Sinclair gave much too much time to small people l...Sinclair gave much too much time to small people like me, answering patiently and directly many mails to be corrupt or have a hidden agenda.<br /><br />It is funny to see how fast opinions can change.<br />One day the guy is one of the greatest experts of the gold market, rarely appearing anywhere, respected like a demi-god.<br />The day after, he is Jim Alzheimer Sinclair, delusional and living secluded with his dogs and his advisor Petunia, Jim the cheater with a hidden agenda to f... the naive bulls.<br /><br />Can you just stay on the facts? : <br /><br />- Sinclair is making a long-term analysis of the market. His audience is gold community in physical, unleveraged, long-term investors. He gave a long-term price objective. Let's wait and see.<br /><br />-He, unlike Trader Dan, is not expert in the short term movements of gold (it's not his daily job, and actually I think he doesn't care much about short term variations). His main point is : get protected, buy some gold if you don't have yet, or you could be screwed. It's his main focus and I do think he's sincere.<br /><br />Now, people mix both long-term and short-term.<br />Given his audience and his warnings, Sinclair repeatedly invited his audience to buy gold, whatever the price, and invited them not to keep looking an eye at gold price afterwards.<br />He asked people to buy right up at 1800 $ an ounce, because you can't know when those things will explode higher, and a short term loss and high volatility are not important compared with the urge to protect a part of one's assets.<br />I understood it that way, made a decision ON MY OWN, and I'm not bashing him for making me make a wrong move.<br />Now some who don't read him well are judging him because he's repeatedly wrong on the short-term bottom of gold. They are right! He's been wrong, since 1800. And I think he shouldn't have said anything some weeks ago about that bottom being made, his birthday as the end of the correction, etc...but if you bought gold reading his site, then you bought to protect yourself on the long-term, not to speculate with leverage in the short term, and such bashing is unnecessary.<br /><br />Anyhow, the guy is honest and dedicated, even if he made a wrong call. No need to spend so much time individually with small investors if he wasn't.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-13162574073398868942013-04-20T22:40:32.829-07:002013-04-20T22:40:32.829-07:00If the chinese want to buy more gold they want to ...If the chinese want to buy more gold they want to buy it cheap. Why would they want to buy for 1540 when they can wait and start to buy it at 1000 or 800? Time and the shorts are working for them now.<br /><br />krishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14708228251692501582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-81683586108275584822013-04-20T22:15:40.602-07:002013-04-20T22:15:40.602-07:00Please remember your comment and read it back in a...Please remember your comment and read it back in a year time when your physical gold will trade for 800. I will my one. If I will be wrong I will apologize. I hope I am wrong but I am afraid I am not.<br />If he knows so much about PM he should have put manipulation into the account too and than he should not have promised 1540 as a bottom.<br />In fact it is foolish to promise anything as a bottom unless you are one of those guys who are driving the market.krishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14708228251692501582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-17194837214523005802013-04-20T21:22:33.257-07:002013-04-20T21:22:33.257-07:00Inflation will come....after deflation though...Inflation will come....after deflation though...stanley j g crouchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07759688998069423820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56901923000857364352013-04-20T20:17:35.031-07:002013-04-20T20:17:35.031-07:00"Can you see the big spike higher in their sp..."Can you see the big spike higher in their spread positions back in August 2008, when gold shot up to $1924 and then collapsed all the way to $1535 before it stabilized?"<br /><br />Don't you mean August 2011?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-18102177514016988552013-04-20T20:11:01.813-07:002013-04-20T20:11:01.813-07:00Its just the opposite of what you say. Unless ther...Its just the opposite of what you say. Unless there is going to be a Government default on its debt, the aftermath is inflation, not deflation.arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17597016551120682781noreply@blogger.com