tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post4750358768050842050..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Weekly View of GoldTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-29719104511164133722014-11-16T14:53:41.678-08:002014-11-16T14:53:41.678-08:00If rates were to rise that wouldn't necessaril...If rates were to rise that wouldn't necessarily be bearish for gold. In fact, since money is already herded into bonds net flows would probably be out of bonds due to capital losses. This money would flow to real assets making CPI rise faster than bond yields or more importantly the expectation of bond yields not compensating for future increases in the general price level would really make gold attractive. Additionally if rates were to rise then the debt trap would worsen. Interest expenses would exceed any growth in nominal incomes thereby putting default on the market's scope. Then no interest rate no matter how high will attract anybody but vulture funds.<br /><br />There is a perspective that all this QE actually retarded the gold bull. The QE kept the debt container full, kept it from tipping over, kept capital gains in bonds intact. Grumps LaBastardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14516927214877780910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-67958850400340445232014-11-16T14:09:29.794-08:002014-11-16T14:09:29.794-08:00A serious bear trap...
http://hutzeltraps.com/lar...A serious bear trap...<br /><br />http://hutzeltraps.com/large_bear_traps/lgbear3.JPG<br /><br /><br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-4387080854360018382014-11-16T13:22:33.064-08:002014-11-16T13:22:33.064-08:00Dan
Plenty enough commentary has been said from b...Dan<br /><br />Plenty enough commentary has been said from both bullish and bearish camps. Christmas would be a good time to re-review where gold is and whether its meanderings from 1900 to present levels were just a correction or the continuation of a bear market. I will just pray that all works out well for every participant on this blog! And thank you again for your insightful commentary!<br /><br />JM NicolasDarvashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16411216111529626438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-55167432571398909542014-11-16T12:16:46.717-08:002014-11-16T12:16:46.717-08:00open interest found here, on Page 62:
http://www....open interest found here, on Page 62:<br /><br />http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.htmlKid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82733943327222950502014-11-16T12:00:06.248-08:002014-11-16T12:00:06.248-08:00most xlnt commentary Dan!
(Bill & Ted's Ex...most xlnt commentary Dan!<br />(Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure 1989)<br />77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05390025091154704970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-50180301591112846652014-11-16T08:06:45.221-08:002014-11-16T08:06:45.221-08:00Kid did you have a link for open interest?
ThxKid did you have a link for open interest?<br />ThxThe Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04786387211895954719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-33953780881318661682014-11-16T07:53:36.618-08:002014-11-16T07:53:36.618-08:00Hmm, suggestive that the price *might* have furthe...Hmm, suggestive that the price *might* have further to climb....thenAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-2985120476383825632014-11-16T07:42:56.345-08:002014-11-16T07:42:56.345-08:00I think the DXY is primarily dependent on the EUR/...I think the DXY is primarily dependent on the EUR/USD. It doesn't appear the ECB will be doing anything until 1st quarter of 2015. Much of the sell off in the EUR was anticipation that the ECB would begin a US-style QE program. Well, doesn't look like this will occur anytime soon. So, while the ECB agonizes over what it can do to kick in Euro area economic growth, the Euro may rally, while the dollar falls. I think the USD/JPY is likely to climb to ~120 over coming months. But, the Yen plays a somewhat minor role in the DXY. The components of the DXY Index are (by weighting): Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), Great Britain- Pounds Sterling (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%), and Swiss Franc (3.6%). Because of the composition of the DXY, it is sometimes referred to as the Anti-Euro Index. So, the DXY is in large part dependent on the US versus the Eurozone -- and so this also in large part holds the future of gold. Much will probably come down to the relative rates between the two - where the US dollar is likely to hold a major advantage heading into next few years.<br /><br />I personally believe that long term, the US is very bullish against the Eurozone area, as America becomes an energy superpower, and subsequently steals manufacturing back away from China.<br /><br /><br /> Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-91436702652615970152014-11-15T20:14:05.464-08:002014-11-15T20:14:05.464-08:00Thanks for the very interesting and insightful ana...Thanks for the very interesting and insightful analysis. From what I've experienced from being a long time member of your site, you provide more, and my opinion, more useful information than most subscription sites. Thank you for being so generous with your time.TheGilliomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15683076214137118915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88413120825934580942014-11-15T16:43:14.547-08:002014-11-15T16:43:14.547-08:00Great stuff EW.
I think you're right about the...Great stuff EW.<br />I think you're right about the next few weeks telling the tale. If we don't get a year end/seasonal bump after this long grinding downwards pressure it doesn't bode well I think for the metals going forward. We'll just continue to grind agonizingly lower at a slow rate until we get close to $1000.<br /><br />I think the DXY is bound to pull back also but nothing crazy. I do wonder though what part the yen might play in all of this.<br />If the yen continues to steadily weaken then the effect on the USD might be enough to keep it stronger longer and faster then I thought possible.<br /><br />We're in uncharted territory with the amount of liquidity that's been pumped into the system these last several years.<br />It's kind of mind-blowing to think that the FX market has activity to the tune of over $5 TRILLION each day.<br /><br />No wonder we're experiencing some incredible swings at times.<br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-33303460531669242452014-11-15T16:08:23.294-08:002014-11-15T16:08:23.294-08:00Interesting link OB.
I think anything's possi...Interesting link OB.<br /> I think anything's possible and it wouldn't take much for Russia or the US to fabricate some type of photographic evidence against <br /><br />My guess is that some drunken "rebel" or Russian soldier in E. Ukraine fired a rocket at what they thought was a Ukrainian transport plane or fighter jet at a high altitude. <br /><br />I guess it could just as easily have been a Ukrainian fighter jet attack/false flag type of thing. Crazy stuff either way.<br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-33378451337950740792014-11-15T13:51:06.083-08:002014-11-15T13:51:06.083-08:00If greenlander thinks we may go up a little from h...If greenlander thinks we may go up a little from here and see 900$ in q3 2015 I think he may be right. <br /><br />If he thinks its a shortsqueeze "to and through 3500" to 50.000 gold eventually I know which "technician" he is reading.Jasperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03831704112998990130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-21240163616443271962014-11-15T12:53:41.669-08:002014-11-15T12:53:41.669-08:00Dan - I'm not sure if you noticed, but both la...Dan - I'm not sure if you noticed, but both last friday (11/7/14) and this friday (11/14/14) the COMEX GC open interest actually increased on the big up moves in price. On 11/7 it was a huge increase, and yesterday it was an increase of roughly 6k contracts (in the preliminary report)<br /><br />I mention this only because it throws some water on the "short covering" explanation - as you know, short covering will result in flat or decreasing OI, depending on who the shorts are buying from.<br /><br />Somehow, though, i don't expect to see anyone on KWN ranting about MASSIVE UNBACKED PAPER CONTRACTS BEING BOUGHT TO MANIPULATE GOLD HIGHER....Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-34568430183961686712014-11-15T12:45:21.049-08:002014-11-15T12:45:21.049-08:00We will never know.We will never know.Lorenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01786341405874071932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-15857933820513731612014-11-15T12:44:48.180-08:002014-11-15T12:44:48.180-08:00thanks for your insights Dan u r really apprieciat...thanks for your insights Dan u r really apprieciated... I have a question for u...I hope u have time to answer...ive heard u and others state that gold miners lead gold in direction so im curious with tax loss selling coming and for all I know already started do u see a possible repat of last years dec bottom ???Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16296981434575524748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-23857851250612180792014-11-15T12:34:04.782-08:002014-11-15T12:34:04.782-08:001250 to 1330 would be a dream come true for me to ...1250 to 1330 would be a dream come true for me to unload some coins that should have been unloaded a while back.Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-22657985002087481572014-11-15T12:17:32.783-08:002014-11-15T12:17:32.783-08:00Greenlander;
the trend is lower until proven othe...Greenlander;<br /><br />the trend is lower until proven otherwise. Also, I am note sure where you are deriving your information from as to the trade being "crowded" I am assuming you are talking about the positioning of traders in the gold market.<br /><br />All of the big spec categories are NET LONG, not net short, so where you are getting the idea of a "crowded bearish trade" is rather odd to say the least.<br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-64923377211704871182014-11-15T12:12:53.903-08:002014-11-15T12:12:53.903-08:00This is a bear trap. You can also draw a slightly...This is a bear trap. You can also draw a slightly downward trending line and gold is still under consolidation for the weekly chart. Too many people looking at that broken level of support thinking we will drop to 800-900. That trade is too crowded. Bears will need to feel a lot more pain and bulls will need to become more confident for this to crash.greenlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16419480565369548628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-61161040825736779182014-11-15T12:04:46.329-08:002014-11-15T12:04:46.329-08:00I was thinking about 2013. That year had two even...I was thinking about 2013. That year had two events where gold dropped very hard. <br /><br />The first was April 2013 when gold broke below $1500. I do not know what triggered it, but someone it the sell button on a lot of gold as it became apparent that it was going to break support. <br /><br />The second event was in June 2013. Gold had worked its way back up to ~$1400 and actually stabilized. Then out of the blue Bernanke came out and said they would soon begin tapering QE. This caused the rates to mega sky rocket and gold subsequently fell to $1200 over a ~7-day span. It was this surprising event that triggered the major selloff. The trigger caused the 10-yr rates to sky rocket from around ~2.0% all the way up to ~2.7% - and they eventually climbed to 3.0% in December.<br /><br />So, my educated guess regarding gold’s destiny lower is based on two primary things; 1. A major increase in the 10-yr rates; 2. A surprise trigger that sends the rates higher.<br /><br />In other words, it needs higher rates – but also has to be surprised with a Fed announcement that they are raising rates. We have focused on disinflation or deflation around the world – but this alone may not be enough to cause a quick selloff in gold. This will likely only cause a slow torturous decline as depicted on a chart that shows a support line running from $1200 in June 2013 to ~$1130 November 2014 AND the top of the channel running from ~$1450 in May 2013 to ~$1380 in March 2014 . <br /><br />I also think the run up in the DXY has run its course and is now way over-bought. It needs more than mere actions from foreign central banks to go further up. It may also need monetary tightening from here at home in the US Fed to go further above 88. SO, I think it could pull back to maybe 85 or 86 before climbing higher again next year. AND – even though 85 is still strong, it could be weak enough to allow gold the opportunity to rally one last time before any major selloff – assuming rates get raised.<br /><br />I think Gold can eventually go to $1K – it’s possible. When the Fed announces that they are raising rates sometime between Jan 2015 and Sep 2015 -- gold may sell off hard – if it comes as a surprise. And it might even fall all the way to $850. The DXY could rally to as high as 110 because of the relative rates between the US and other major central banks.<br /><br />In the mean time, my guess is that gold will likely go to ~$1250, then maybe ~$1330. Next few weeks will be very telling.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-1681863143827703102014-11-15T11:52:48.740-08:002014-11-15T11:52:48.740-08:00is this legit?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/scand...is this legit?<br /><br />http://www.globalresearch.ca/scandal-last-seconds-of-mh17-flight-were-snapshot-by-a-us-or-uk-spy-satellite/5414148Ophelia Ballshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13825169236106222239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-57446788427274079892014-11-15T11:45:38.947-08:002014-11-15T11:45:38.947-08:00Could be the "risk on" versus "risk...Could be the "risk on" versus "risk off" affect. It seems odd that the relationship would indeed be causational - and we have to be careful with correlations. Merely using correlation would have you conclude odd things, such as the number of Women lawyers over time is causing more autism in children.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-18751568474644400792014-11-15T10:32:19.950-08:002014-11-15T10:32:19.950-08:00I think that is a truly excellent and thorough ana...I think that is a truly excellent and thorough analysis Dan; as you mentioned in the title of a recent article, the past 10 days have been largely sentiment and runninf-out-of-steam driven, because compared to the events we have witnessed earlier this year, nothing substantial has occurred either globally<br /><br />We remain hostage to "events" - though unless I have misses something, the G20 meeting appears to be turning out to be a damp squib<br /><br />My sense is that the past fortnight has been a brief blip in the chart rather than a significant turnaroundOphelia Ballshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13825169236106222239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-68871018749076070492014-11-15T10:16:51.131-08:002014-11-15T10:16:51.131-08:00Dang small screen. That was Ophelia Ball's po...Dang small screen. That was Ophelia Ball's posting and it was thanks for posting. Mike Ehlerthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03796788820435662856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-66476459234386187782014-11-15T10:05:24.255-08:002014-11-15T10:05:24.255-08:00Pretty outstanding stuff and a nice surprise on a ...Pretty outstanding stuff and a nice surprise on a Saturday, thanks!DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59985829919644340302014-11-15T10:01:19.659-08:002014-11-15T10:01:19.659-08:00tinpanminer;
I have commented on it already. You ...tinpanminer;<br /><br />I have commented on it already. You must have missed my posts and responses to posts...<br /><br />http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/11/another-eureka-moment-for-gold-bugs.html<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.com