tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post4605019237524556759..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Can the Fed realistically shrink its burgeoning balance sheet in the current economic environment?Trader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-55673708645526980852011-03-14T12:12:48.906-07:002011-03-14T12:12:48.906-07:00Now I know where the mixed signals in the gold mar...Now I know where the mixed signals in the gold market are coming from, Dan. The battle between he foolish hedge funds that incredulously view gold a risk trade, and those investors that view is as a safe haven.Tiger-Cat Greathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01358701704602975176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-21509233859030773402011-03-13T20:20:43.216-07:002011-03-13T20:20:43.216-07:00Self taught - even more impressive. Dan, 2008 was...Self taught - even more impressive. Dan, 2008 was the worst year of my life. I wish I was incarcerated that whole year rather than playing around with metals (silver specifically). The parallels of that year in the financial markets are analagous to the quake in Japan,(Lehman's goes belly up), the tsunami of investor delerium that followed and the "meltdown" of the silver market. I was kinda expecting a gold opening to shoot the moon tonight but progress has been muted after opening the session strongly. I'm getting mixed signals here as the gold market is undecided and reticent to advance on this event.Tiger-Cat Greathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01358701704602975176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-24185258850106806442011-03-13T10:21:02.898-07:002011-03-13T10:21:02.898-07:00Dan...I read your updates regularly and enjoy read...Dan...I read your updates regularly and enjoy reading your insights. Do you see a good possibility that the next few months may bring us renewed weakness in the general market, commodities and PMs considering the withdrawal of QE. That being said, gold could decline to 1320-50 (Higher floor) and HUI TO 520ISH (aGAIN HIGHER FLOOR)OutofSighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01679802211385213628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-6718744426644184502011-03-12T19:00:06.284-08:002011-03-12T19:00:06.284-08:00Great post Dan. Much appreciated.Great post Dan. Much appreciated.caramelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16037173721286319471noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-77562664414343916222011-03-12T18:28:37.868-08:002011-03-12T18:28:37.868-08:00Excellect post. My thoughts exactly. Thanks so m...Excellect post. My thoughts exactly. Thanks so much for providing your thoughts. I am a professional mathematican and know how the markets/finacial engineering work on an academic level, which is usually different from practice.<br /><br />Dr. A.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16974827255074887119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-6048159421001359002011-03-12T18:25:47.328-08:002011-03-12T18:25:47.328-08:00Thanks for your insights Dan. You say that the Fed...Thanks for your insights Dan. You say that the Fed is stuck but I would go further and say that the entire country is stuck. On one hand, it needs to devalue the dollar to lessen the burden of its debt obligations and untenable upcoming unfunded liabilities commitments. And it would also like to devalue the dollar to make its exports grow, so Obama says.<br /><br />However, devaluing the dollar makes imports more expensive, and since the US is a petro addicted economy with a trade deficit, lowering the dollar makes oil more expensive. Since US agriculture is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, then any advantage to agricultural producers from a lower dollar will be offset by increases in oil prices.<br /><br />The economy is stuck between a rock and a hard place. There is no way out. If the US had heeded the warnings of scientists decades ago to get of oil as an energy source then it might have some wiggle room, but there is nothing that can be done now in time to save it.<br /><br />Sadly, I see the only solution to be the complete destruction of both the dollar and the world's financial system, and to start off fresh with a new monetary system that does not require perpetual growth to function, in a world of rapidly depleting resources which can no longer support that growth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-63899108490555313662011-03-12T17:34:53.340-08:002011-03-12T17:34:53.340-08:00TigerCat - self taught. After two decades of tradi...TigerCat - self taught. After two decades of trading you tend to learn a few things if you are still around! There is always room for more improvement however since events have a way of teaching us all if we are humble enough to learn. For example - if anyone would have told me years ago that gold would have been considered a "risk" trade I would have thought that they had one too many beers. Yet that is exactly what happened during the sell off in late 2008 when it was thrown out for a short time as the Yen carry trade was unwound. One would have thought that thousands of years of previous history would make that impossible. Then again, the hedgies are insane!Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-72438585678206843392011-03-12T17:30:54.360-08:002011-03-12T17:30:54.360-08:00Art - Yes I do - it accelerated quite a few market...Art - Yes I do - it accelerated quite a few markets higher in a real hurry.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-84082057148057195032011-03-12T16:52:53.073-08:002011-03-12T16:52:53.073-08:00Dan, thanks so much for your work.
I read sincla...Dan, thanks so much for your work. <br /><br />I read sinclair, Rickards, et al, and while consensus is no guarantor of correctness, I find scant credible analysis otherwise.<br /><br />I will just keep on doing what I have been doing with the confidence all will work out.<br /><br />Meanwhile, keep it all jake. ;-)jake the snakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02472541600848206116noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-45455762473324097592011-03-12T16:22:07.641-08:002011-03-12T16:22:07.641-08:00Thanks Dan,
So buy gold and silver is my take aw...Thanks Dan, <br /><br />So buy gold and silver is my take away from that......:)DocJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07843290019596517118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-68535386728255721452011-03-12T15:57:51.394-08:002011-03-12T15:57:51.394-08:00Please forgive my digression, Dan, but I am curiou...Please forgive my digression, Dan, but I am curious to know, are you self taught or University educated? You don't list one in your bio, but you must have gone to one. Your breadth of knowledge in finance is admirable.Tiger-Cat Greathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01358701704602975176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-49027279501526023792011-03-12T14:18:28.551-08:002011-03-12T14:18:28.551-08:00Excellent article !
Out of curiosity, do you thin...Excellent article !<br /><br />Out of curiosity, do you think there is any correlation between the hinting of QE2 in Sept 2010 and the beginning of this massive move in silver around the same time?Art Vandelayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16011790499838116384noreply@blogger.com