tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post3113614688564210715..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: USDA Reports - Focus shifts to Global Supply NumbersTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger136125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-84034507390775946422014-12-30T09:45:26.553-08:002014-12-30T09:45:26.553-08:00I bought all I could in gold, as Bo Polny wrote &q...I bought all I could in gold, as Bo Polny wrote "I don't care where are the prices, they will end the year at 2000 $" :)<br />lol.<br />Can't think about those who subscribed to his BS newsletter at 20.000 $ per year.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69421466408670349492014-12-30T06:02:49.245-08:002014-12-30T06:02:49.245-08:00Hmm...
http://i60.tinypic.com/2rc61ea.jpgHmm...<br /><br />http://i60.tinypic.com/2rc61ea.jpgAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-48542541180807233822014-12-28T15:17:30.728-08:002014-12-28T15:17:30.728-08:00I caught that article too.
http://www.businesssp...I caught that article too. <br /><br />http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/12/5/china/aiib-not-just-another-multilateral<br /><br />http://china.huanqiu.com/News/mofcom/2014-12/5302955.html<br /><br />http://china.huanqiu.com/News/mofcom/2014-12/5302955.html<br /><br />And the latest from Christine herself.<br /><br />http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/next-year-is-make-or-break-for-global-economy-304132.html<br /><br />IMF is a bunch of wannabes. Like Tom Hagen they're out.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfxBUTJeD_MGrumps LaBastardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14516927214877780910noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-25853325938065019182014-12-27T17:58:02.481-08:002014-12-27T17:58:02.481-08:00"China Steps In as World's New Bank"...<br />"China Steps In as World's New Bank"<br /><br />DEC 25, 2014 6:00 PM EST<br />By William Pesek<br /><br />Thanks to China, Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund, Jim Yong Kim of the World Bank and Takehiko Nakao of the Asian Development Bank may no longer have much meaningful work to do.<br /><br />Beijing's move to bail out Russia, on top of its recent aid for Venezuela and Argentina, signals the death of the post-war Bretton Woods world. It’s also marks the beginning of the end for America's linchpin role in the global economy and Japan's influence in Asia.<br /><br />What is China's new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank if not an ADB killer? If Japan, ADB's main benefactor, won't share the presidency with Asian peers, Beijing will just use its deep pockets to overpower it. <br />"...China stepping up its role as lender of last resort upends an economic development game that's been decades in the making...(cont.)<br /><br />http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-25/china-steps-in-as-worlds-new-bank<br />~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~<br />"Trichet Sees G-7 Opportunity for Currency Accord"<br /><br />By Mark Deen and Simon Kennedy<br />December 24, 2014 7:16 AM EST<br /> <br />Former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said there is a “window of opportunity” for the world’s advanced economies to strike a fresh accord against competitive devaluations.<br /><br />Trichet, who attended Group of Seven meetings over the course of three decades starting as a French treasury official in the 1980s, said his suggestion is specifically for currencies that make up the Special Drawing Rights basket at the International Monetary Fund. SDRs are currently comprised of dollars, euros, yen and the pound. They do not include the Chinese yuan....(cont.)<br /><br />http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-24/trichet-sees-g-7-window-of-opportunity-for-fresh-currency-accord.html#disqus_threadDarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-40903143057306396902014-12-27T14:01:37.464-08:002014-12-27T14:01:37.464-08:00Read back a few posts by Trader Dan. He has left ...Read back a few posts by Trader Dan. He has left this open for his occasional post and our repartee. <br />His main effort is on "Trader Dan's World", a paid site that is more attuned to traders than the marauding gold bugs that made such disagreeable posts here. Mike Ehlerthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03796788820435662856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-66022024503374959382014-12-27T00:09:58.130-08:002014-12-27T00:09:58.130-08:00I respectully disagree with the short-term prognos...I respectully disagree with the short-term prognoses above. <br /><br />On Dec 24, gold began minute wave 3 up (of intermediate wave 2 correction).. On the hourly chart you can see gold has confirmed this by breaking out of its downward channel. <br /><br />Third waves typically see more momentum, like today, so it shouldn't take too long until gold reaches its last high of 1238.<br /><br />Gold target in January is from 1278 (minute 3 = minute 1) to 1283 (intermediate 2 = 0.618 of intermediate 1). Waiting to short from up near there. <br /><br />After that, primary wave 5 will commence and take gold to multi-year lows next year, but it won't be $600 or even $850 like MA says. More likely approx $1000 based on my wave counts & Fibonacci analyses. That will usher in another opportune long entry point. <br /><br />But of course there are no certainties in this uncertain market. <br /><br />btw, WTF happened to this blog ??Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85781994644084184762014-12-26T14:05:31.222-08:002014-12-26T14:05:31.222-08:00Ben Carlson opines on "How To Spot A Bad Fore...Ben Carlson opines on "How To Spot A Bad Forecaster". My only gripe was that he didn't explicitly include "I was undone by manipulation and corruption in the markets" on the list of excuses.<br /><br />http://awealthofcommonsense.com/spot-bad-forecaster/Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-20045729323347415512014-12-26T07:02:49.928-08:002014-12-26T07:02:49.928-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-13597140533127901132014-12-26T02:23:27.724-08:002014-12-26T02:23:27.724-08:00When you have the money and the computer power plu...When you have the money and the computer power plus the programming available to run numbers then you might understand why and how targets are generated from all the input. Benchmarks are fairly easy, arising from breakout points or historic lows and highs. Of course, you have to adjust for inflation depending on which points in time are in play.<br /><br />Which targets, daily-weekly-monthly-yearly, get hit, the picture becomes a bit clearer as to future events. Throw in cycles and you might have something.<br /><br />Helps to be dynamic in adjustments.anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13458537409932488443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-17423661325199131542014-12-25T01:47:24.782-08:002014-12-25T01:47:24.782-08:00A merry christmas to everyone :)A merry christmas to everyone :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-47054170207401625252014-12-25T01:47:10.327-08:002014-12-25T01:47:10.327-08:00"A year-end closing below 1227 will signal we..."A year-end closing below 1227 will signal we will see new lows next year. A year-end closing BELOW 1155 will guarantee that drop below $1,000 is coming"<br /><br />Anything asserted without explanation is complete BS.<br />So, 1227 huh? Why not 1226 or 1228?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-66720361163792322342014-12-24T10:47:03.918-08:002014-12-24T10:47:03.918-08:00Hurry and dump or be prepaid to hold through the n...Hurry and dump or be prepaid to hold through the next phase in this correction. Or you could sell now and buy back near half price soon. When gold gets back down to $1,000 probably going to be some spike lows develop from that level. Capitulation will create some real bargains. Armstrong: "A year-end closing below 1227 will signal we will see new lows next year. A year-end closing BELOW 1155 will guarantee that drop below $1,000 is coming. The main support next year lies well below the market between $778-$618..."anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13458537409932488443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88569526884607580352014-12-24T07:17:21.940-08:002014-12-24T07:17:21.940-08:00Gold seems to be drifting off. I'm disappoint...Gold seems to be drifting off. I'm disappointed, since I'd like to sell a few more coins in the new year.<br /><br />My amateur charting eye says 1130 needs to be tested again. I was just hoping it would wait a couple of weeks.<br /><br />Some 20 francs and some 5 pesos are packed and ready to say bye-bye.Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-12748148078781135812014-12-23T20:19:32.614-08:002014-12-23T20:19:32.614-08:00~Gold Assets in Biggest Bullion ETF Tumble Most Si...~Gold Assets in Biggest Bullion ETF Tumble Most Since ‘13~<br /><br />By Millie Munshi<br />December 23, 2014 8:44 PM EST<br /><br />Investors in the world’s biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion dumped the most gold in 18 months as the U.S. economic recovery cut demand for a haven.<br /><br />Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell 1.6 percent yesterday to 712.9 metric tons, the smallest amount since September 2008. The drop was the biggest since June 2013.<br /><br />Bullion for immediate delivery is heading for the first back-to-back annual decline since 2000. A collapse in oil prices is curbing demand for the metal as an inflation hedge, while the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates. Gains for the dollar and U.S. equities have also made gold less attractive as an alternative asset...(cont.)<br /><br />http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-24/gold-assets-in-biggest-bullion-etf-tumble-most-since-13.htmlDarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41316357873804716462014-12-23T19:24:39.298-08:002014-12-23T19:24:39.298-08:00"Russia on Verge of Junk as S&P Puts Rati..."Russia on Verge of Junk as S&P Puts Rating on Negative Watch"<br /><br />By Olga Tanas, Anna Andrianova and Ye Xie<br />December 23, 2014 2:08 PM EST<br /><br />Russia may lose its investment-grade credit rating for the first time in a decade after Standard & Poor’s said it’s considering a cut amid the country’s worst economic crisis since the 1998 debt default...(cont.)<br /><br />http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/russia-on-verge-of-junk-as-s-p-puts-rating-on-negative-watch-1-.html<br />~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~<br />"UBS Raises Flag on China’s $1 Trillion Overseas Debt Pile"<br /><br />By Shai Oster and Justina Lee<br />December 23, 2014 9:34 PM EST<br /><br />UBS Group AG is flagging risks from China’s $1 trillion worth of unhedged foreign debt as forecasters see bets against the greenback unwinding in 2015.<br /><br />The world’s second-largest economy is exposed to shifts in currency and interest rates as never before because of expanding international trade and easing foreign-exchange regulations, said Stephen Andrews, head of Asia banks research in Hong Kong at UBS. Daiwa Capital Markets has a $1 trillion estimate for carry-trade inflows since 2008, bets on the difference between yields in China and overseas. It sees a 5.7 percent drop in the yuan next year.<br /><br />The renminbi is heading for a 2.8 percent loss in 2014 as the dollar gains on Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates and the People’s Bank of China cuts borrowing costs to support a flagging economy.<br /><br />Capital controls and record foreign-exchange reserves will help the PBOC cope with any similar situation to 1997’s Asian financial crisis, when firms struggled to repay debt as currencies slumped,...(cont.)<br /><br />http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/ubs-raises-flag-on-china-s-1-trillion-overseas-debt-pile.htmlDarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-11978123770355453862014-12-23T14:57:38.209-08:002014-12-23T14:57:38.209-08:00Thank you HubertThank you Hubertdflyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10617196875708889118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82199201753359541842014-12-23T12:12:19.854-08:002014-12-23T12:12:19.854-08:00Red China's ascendance to a world power happen...Red China's ascendance to a world power happens only by acquisition of other country's property and mineral rights. So far their banking prowess is limited by their own stupidity. If it wasn't for the world economies crashing, Red China wouldn't be able to take advantage of opportune defaultings or stepping in to 'assist' in bailouts. But such is how power is created.<br /><br />Draghi in his non-elected position has almost completed the slash and burn policy in Euroland banking, there is nothing left standing to slash so he will move on to a political position provided to him as a reward.<br /><br />Falling oil price is still the biggest story of this young century with all its ramifications. Not even Armstrong saw that one coming unless it is grouped in with deflation of all commodities. He claims high oil prices led to investment in better oil extraction techniques and alternative energies. I don't think anyone thought the US would become energy dependent again in a matter of years.<br /><br />Anyway, Armstrong seems to be the only one with a clue. Euro to par with the US$, Japan finally folds, world deflation still on its way in earnest, bankers hobble all economies while the US markers go on to greater highs in the new year, precious metals finally bottom and begin rising with the US$.<br /><br />The real question will be which wars will breakout and where to cover for countries defaulting.anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13458537409932488443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-26904224862535938282014-12-23T07:30:05.839-08:002014-12-23T07:30:05.839-08:00Not much to say except...
Dow over 18,000
S&P ...Not much to say except...<br />Dow over 18,000<br />S&P headed to 2100<br />USD above 90 / JPY 120 +<br />Oil resting at 55<br />Gold resisting 1180<br />Silver resisting 16<br />~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~<br />"China quietly joins Asia's currency wars to avert deflation"<br /><br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11309243/China-quietly-joins-Asias-currency-wars-to-avert-deflation.html<br /><br />~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~<br />"Ruble Swap Shows China Challenging IMF as Emergency Lender"<br /><br />http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/yuan-ruble-swap-shows-china-challenging-imf-as-emergency-lender.html<br /><br />My guess going forward would be that an upcoming emerging market country (EMC) debt crisis (denominated in $6 + trillion USD) is mostly resolved by a China/BOC bailout/lifeline where trillions upon trillions of RMB are injected into the EMC's economies and the FX markets.<br />I think it possible the IMF utilizes the upcoming EMC debt crisis, and subsequent massive RMB bailout, to alter the weighting of the SDR currency basket afterwards.<br /><br />Imho, the upcoming EMC's debt crisis is the catalyst for the Yuan to solidify it's burgeoning international status among the other top world currencies and the IMF seizes the moment...or at least tries to.<br /><br />With the USD headed towards 100 and the JPY headed towards 150+ a EMC debt crisis is almost a certainty...as is the Yuans transcendance onto the global stage.DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-20746080184387709722014-12-23T01:14:30.476-08:002014-12-23T01:14:30.476-08:00EUR USD.
Danger zone.
http://i57.tinypic.com/b8re...EUR USD.<br />Danger zone.<br /><br />http://i57.tinypic.com/b8re39.jpg<br /><br /><br />On the weekly time unit, the inf bollinger band is now at 1.20, allowing prices to reach that level. There is a support line in the current area at 1.2230. If it doesn't hold...watch out because the ET MACD is showing something quite worrisome : look at the Bollinger Bands. Both are heading down. Now the ET MACD reversed from a high while those bands headed down. Usually when that happens, within around 3 to 4 candles, the inf Bollinger band is supposed to reverse UP and provide some nice support. <br />But that did not happen. And when it does not happen, it usually means we are within a very strong downtrend, and prices are going to keep heading down. (I don't say I'm right, I'm sharing my "theories", so let's follow what happens next).<br /><br />Now what about the daily time unit?<br /><br />http://i60.tinypic.com/1z4vpm0.jpg<br /><br />Well well, here as well sitting on the blue support line...if it cracks, same as weekly...we could head down towards 1.20 quite quickly. The MACD is breaking its propagation axis. Both CDUR are heading down.<br /><br />Really, 1.22 area had better hold for bulls.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-21086192254475941442014-12-22T13:10:31.078-08:002014-12-22T13:10:31.078-08:00Have you seen this "Debt Jubilee" garbag...Have you seen this "Debt Jubilee" garbage from Sprott Money that ZH has been passing around? Probably the stupidest thing I've ever seen.<br /><br />Makes me happy to see yet another day of stocks up and metals down, just to stick it up their patootie one more time. This never gets old!Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9115150632683007742014-12-22T10:46:57.440-08:002014-12-22T10:46:57.440-08:00i think you mean Louis Sarkozy at West Point, but ...i think you mean Louis Sarkozy at West Point, but is he a US citizen? maybe he could still be King or even Czar of something. the titles King Louis and Czar Nicolas both have a certain pleasing ring. peckerwoodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00741664412098028698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-68587388873126095392014-12-21T23:46:47.730-08:002014-12-21T23:46:47.730-08:00If you are tired of Clinton and Bush, I think one ...If you are tired of Clinton and Bush, I think one of the sons of Nicolas Sarkozy is finishing West Point this year. After that, he could be a good candidate, couldn't he? ouch...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37156318201018474402014-12-21T23:43:46.579-08:002014-12-21T23:43:46.579-08:00Hy dfly, we bounced for the 4th time on the suppor...Hy dfly, we bounced for the 4th time on the support of the descending wedge. Technically I'm afraid we can break through and join 1.18, but as long as the support is holding...<br />I guess we are going to see a lot of short term volatility because we are now in contact with the important support area around 1.20, so bulls are going to try to buy, bears will make some profits, etc...but overall it seems to me we are still headed down longer term because of simple things : Euro, Europe are a mess, France is a mess, Italy is an awful mess, ECB and Germany do not agree about what to do or how to fo it, plus at the moment it is perceived that ECB's rate will be lower than in the US. So, not many good news to be long the Eur Usd.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-35050131676517901452014-12-21T17:44:28.197-08:002014-12-21T17:44:28.197-08:00Probably not for the foreseeable future Scruff. $...Probably not for the foreseeable future Scruff. $US and gold are rising against all currencies. Gold is basically treading water in relation to the dollar. No living soul knows what the the new year has in store.kjmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00302516280937449801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-33484408945671168072014-12-20T22:16:13.823-08:002014-12-20T22:16:13.823-08:00so, that US $. Eight year high and all. Any reason...so, that US $. Eight year high and all. Any reason for it to slow down now?Scruffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00985275097530127312noreply@blogger.com