tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post2925727273836410162..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: A Tale of Two CitiesTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-76070764870694052792013-03-09T04:52:05.617-08:002013-03-09T04:52:05.617-08:00Great job you people are doing with this website. ...Great job you people are doing with this website. <a href="http://www.sunshineprofits.com/" rel="nofollow">www.sunshineprofits.com</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15833048446046889315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-4411407697885391762013-03-03T10:14:18.128-08:002013-03-03T10:14:18.128-08:00http://www.marketskeptics.com/2011/06/the-esf-and-...http://www.marketskeptics.com/2011/06/the-esf-and-its-history.html<br /><br />Eric DeCarbonnel adds relevant discussion and documentation to the assertion of intervention into markets via S&P index options purchases by the Exchange Stabilization FundAndyramahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01546944838534963035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56819678484408816012013-03-03T09:53:01.927-08:002013-03-03T09:53:01.927-08:00Prioris,
Very scary statement. First, you state ...Prioris, <br />Very scary statement. First, you state the Fed is buying SP500 futures. Do you have any proof of this? I would love to see this on the Fedsite? White Wolfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13965194184809848345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69967999992573137852013-03-02T13:49:26.007-08:002013-03-02T13:49:26.007-08:00Great stuff as always Dan.
BTW: the US isn't...Great stuff as always Dan. <br /><br />BTW: the US isn't a big copper consumer anymore argument is irrelevant because your point is that Cu started this disconnect in 2013, but was tracking well before that, even though US copper consumption has been on decline since 2000. <br />(2000, one could argue, was the apex of the US economy--any stock market surges after that were ginned up by Greenspan & Bernanke). <br />Moreover, since the S&P 500 derives about 46% of sales outside of US, foreign demand for copper is more relevant than ever.<br />MDLGTOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15988611490410921827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-47365716831812618362013-03-01T18:36:15.356-08:002013-03-01T18:36:15.356-08:00One way the fed fuels and levitates the SP500 is b...One way the fed fuels and levitates the SP500 is by buying SP500 futures. As long as the hedge funds are confident the fed will continue to do that, they can enter the bubble SP500 with confidence.<br /><br />To make things consistent, they can buy a boat or air craft carrier size load of futures in copper market.<br /><br />Not saying they will or even care to but they could.<br />priorishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02163793831650790540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-26701418697271897942013-03-01T17:23:30.889-08:002013-03-01T17:23:30.889-08:00I believe international cash flows have been pushi...I believe international cash flows have been pushing both USD and US stocks higher. For example, Japanese institutions and trader housewives (I am not kidding, it is what they do and it's a LOT of wealth) have been moving funds to US markets. <br /><br />They have also been pulling funds out of Australia, and I think that helps explain the divergence between AUD/USD (lower) and US stocks (higher)...<br /><br />So you see, there is unusual divergence in markets other than copper and S&P.<br /><br />Love the constructive exchange and insightful comments by both of you above. Good stuff. Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-51420004505195765932013-03-01T17:21:26.524-08:002013-03-01T17:21:26.524-08:00Thanks for sharing that.
I also notice a failed...Thanks for sharing that. <br /><br />I also notice a failed HNS pattern on the DXY weekly.<br />Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-83329353067180223812013-03-01T17:19:40.374-08:002013-03-01T17:19:40.374-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9928153307645016932013-03-01T16:19:29.689-08:002013-03-01T16:19:29.689-08:00Unknown;
last comment from me on this. I am not h...Unknown;<br /><br />last comment from me on this. I am not here to engage in a discussion about which nation on earth is the largest consumer of copper. That is totally beside the point I am making with this recent divergence between copper and the S&P 500. The point is that global stock markets nowadays tend to rise and fall together due to the nature of our integrated and intertwined global economy. A slowdown in a major zone therefore tends to negatively impact all global equity markets as a general rule. When Euroland was having its woes, global equity markets moved lower in tandem just as they did during the height of the credit crisis in 2008. When China woes surface and traders fear a slowdown in China, global equity markets also tend to have difficulty mounting strong rallies. we live in a new era in which interconnectedness is the name of the game. That goes back to my point. If copper is going one way and the equity markets are going another, something is off base. It will resolve itself eventually with both markets moving in a similar direction if recent history is any decent guide. But it is certainly worth noting in my mind and is something unusual.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-30748741394794053372013-03-01T16:11:13.189-08:002013-03-01T16:11:13.189-08:00As you noted, the economy in China cratered in 200...As you noted, the economy in China cratered in 2008-09 as well.<br /><a href="http://www.taintedalpha.com/2011/01/20/china-q4-gdp-growth-at-9-8/" rel="nofollow">LINK</a><br /><br />Perhaps I over-stated the US's role in copper consumption, but the fact is, US copper consumption peaked in 2000 and has been generally going down ever since. It is no longer the market mover.<br /><a href="http://www.copper.org/resources/market_data/pdfs/annual_data.pdf" rel="nofollow">Page 6, Table 1, Line 16</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7383322028930508672013-03-01T15:35:58.226-08:002013-03-01T15:35:58.226-08:00Unknown - that is a rather novel idea. here are th...Unknown - that is a rather novel idea. here are the facts - China and the US are the two largest users of copper. GRanted, China is the key to copper but the US is not a pittance player in its demand equation.<br /><br />By the way, if the price of copper has little to do with the US economy, then pray tell why did it collapse in price back in 2008 when the credit crisis erupted here in the US. It was not China in which the credit crisis began, but rather the US market which set the price falling. The US then had the spillover effect into the rest of the global economy thus impacting China negatively and curtailing copper demand in that nation.<br /><br />The only thing I will tell you is that Dr. Copper is an excellent indicator of investor sentiment in regards to growth or lack thereof. It is not fool proof but it has a pretty damned good track record.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-33986084271230229602013-03-01T15:11:04.292-08:002013-03-01T15:11:04.292-08:00Also, this:
Joe Friday: The Dollar Hasn't Don...Also, this:<br /><br /><a href="http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Kimble-130301-Dollar-Update.php" rel="nofollow">Joe Friday: The Dollar Hasn't Done This in 10 Years</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-40676350667889588702013-03-01T14:59:45.330-08:002013-03-01T14:59:45.330-08:00The price of copper has little to do with the US e...The price of copper has little to do with the US economy, which doesn't even consume all that much copper anymore, even during the best of times. It's all about China. <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-03-01/copper-reaches-three-month-low-as-chinese-data-disappoints" rel="nofollow">The same thing is happening to aluminum</a>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com