tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post1244350168632273641..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: So Where's the QE3??? (Updated)Trader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-61427947915374221532013-01-22T23:12:53.826-08:002013-01-22T23:12:53.826-08:00Best Equity Tips great info!! thanks for sharing.<a href="http://www.daygains.com/services.php" rel="nofollow">Best Equity Tips</a> great info!! thanks for sharing.daygains.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05178951265367583785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-23202601043584867652012-11-11T23:59:07.961-08:002012-11-11T23:59:07.961-08:00This blog is really nice and informative. We are p...This blog is really nice and informative. We are pleased to know this blog is really helping people.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.commoditytips.com/" rel="nofollow">Free Nifty Tips</a><br />adamsmithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11932439526490528441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-35627446239225472062012-11-11T16:30:40.163-08:002012-11-11T16:30:40.163-08:00You're welcome.
I read somewhere (forget wher...You're welcome.<br /><br />I read somewhere (forget where) that the Fed's statement of "$40 billion per month" wasn't intended to be precise, it was just supposed to be a rough number. Some months it could be a little more than $40 billion, some months it could be less. Looks like the October purchase was a bit less.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9501966173376531302012-11-11T14:06:40.178-08:002012-11-11T14:06:40.178-08:00Yes some of comments above are correct. Get this f...Yes some of comments above are correct. Get this from the WSJ:<br /><br /><br />"The Federal Reserve launched a major bond-buying program this fall,<br />fueling worries that the ballooning size of its portfolio of assets<br />could stoke inflation. So why has the Fed’s balance sheet been<br />shrinking over the last two weeks?<br /><br />"The Fed held $2.825 trillion in assets as of Oct. 31, down from<br />$2.849 trillion on Oct. 19. That’s nearly a 1% contraction, even<br />though the Fed said in September it would begin adding $40 billion a<br />month of mortgage-backed securities to its portfolio.<br /><br />"There are two main reasons for the drop, which should prove<br />temporary: the fact that new Fed purchases take time to settle, and<br />that old mortgage securities already in its portfolio are being<br />retired at a faster pace with interest rates down.<br /><br />"As people pay back their mortgages — if they are re-financing, for<br />example –the Fed’s holdings of mortgage backed securities shrink until<br />it can use those funds to buy more."<br /><br />my comments:<br />Mostly has to do with settlement datesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88699674131466817792012-11-11T10:46:52.768-08:002012-11-11T10:46:52.768-08:00I've seen several articles saying basically th...I've seen several articles saying basically that the settlement of the FED MBS purchases will only begin to occur this week and thus are not on the balance sheet yet nor has the money been printed yet.<br /><br />Here is a typical link -<br /><br />http://www.project-syndicate.org/blog/qe3-has-started--only-it-hasn-t-by-christopher-t--mahoney<br /><br />I wonder if that means we will start seeing the effects to the market soon?Foam_Rangerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04515635071117179055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-22366784614086004972012-11-11T10:38:02.391-08:002012-11-11T10:38:02.391-08:00Could it be because of the following?
"Ther...Could it be because of the following? <br /><br />"There has been some fluctuation since QE3+ was announced, but the Fed's balance sheet is essentially flat. <br /><br />The reason appears to be due to technical factors having to due with idiosyncrasies of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market, where settlement take place once a month and delivery can take up to six months. <br />In addition, refinancing of mortgages results in early pre-payment of previously borrowed money. The maturing of current MBS holdings may be taking place faster than new ones can show up on the Fed's balance sheet.<br /><br />There is no reason to doubt that QE3+ will produce an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. The real question is whether this expansion is going to bring the Fed any closer to its full employment objective."<br /><br />Read more: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MarcToMarket/~3/axf1OxrKfUM/great-graphic-qe3-yet-to-impact-balance.html#ixzz2BwLBozje<br />Apurv Shahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18222519409525762307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-1060137825101169402012-11-11T08:13:26.094-08:002012-11-11T08:13:26.094-08:00Unknown;
thanks for letting me know about that sc...Unknown;<br /><br />thanks for letting me know about that scale notation being incorrect. I appreciate that as I missed that when preparing the chart. Also, I included a more narrowly focused chart detailing only the Mortgage Backed Securities on their Balance sheet. Take a fresh look at this and you will see my puzzlement!<br /><br />Trader DanTrader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-15541039238639114332012-11-11T04:16:35.566-08:002012-11-11T04:16:35.566-08:00Perhaps allowing a delay in applying the liquidity...Perhaps allowing a delay in applying the liquidity and thus creating a temporary fall in stocks will help to give insight into a free market in short term bonds without fed assistance. Should this market fail to be substantial enough then expect op twist to continue as outright money purchases along with more support from the masses as they will the have the view that mbs alone were clearly not enough. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08567909339559320226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37921465772832330362012-11-10T23:56:30.049-08:002012-11-10T23:56:30.049-08:00BTW, the scale of your chart is wrong. The side ba...BTW, the scale of your chart is wrong. The side bar should say "millions of dollars" not "billions of dollars." Otherwise the Fed balance sheet would now be at over $2.5 quadrillion according to your chart, instead of the actual $2.5+ trillion.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-20972388964030746542012-11-10T23:48:18.684-08:002012-11-10T23:48:18.684-08:00As far as I know, there's been only 1 MBS purc...As far as I know, there's been only 1 MBS purchase under QE3 so far. Not surprised it's not noticeable on the Fed's balance sheet yet.<br /><a href="http://soberlook.com/2012/10/qe3-begins.html" rel="nofollow">LINK</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-38653764068395929332012-11-10T23:42:07.255-08:002012-11-10T23:42:07.255-08:00I think Bernanke knows what the result of QE to in...I think Bernanke knows what the result of QE to infinity will be especially with the politicians not doing anything to help solve the problems (he has said in his speeches that he cannot solve the problem alone). He has figured out that of all of the previous FED chairmen who has gotten away with the money printing he is now stuck with a problem so huge that kicking the can down the road is soon becoming impossible for him and the result of trying to do so will be devastating.<br /><br />He is smart enough to know exactly which steps are necessary to kick the can down the road and he is exceptional skilled in doing this. He had to launch QE3 to make the economy look good for the election and to keep the system from imploding.<br /><br />Bernanke has let us know that he is not going to seek a third term as FED chairman. He does not want to be the FED chairman who caused the hyperinflation and made the dollar collapse. He has figured out he is in over his head and now he wants to escape.<br /><br />The reason why the QE3 is not showing up in the FED balance sheet is that Bernanke knows the result of QE to infinity and he does not want that. Also he knows that he is found trustworthy and that he can make people believe there are QE3 (without it being there), and the risk of hyperinflation and dollar collapse in the short term will be less if QE3 is imaginary. Actual money creation is needed for hyperinflation. If there are no money creation there will be no hyperinflation. The risk of him being blamed for hyperinflation and dollar collapse will be less if he leaves the responsibility for actually implementing QE3 to his successor.<br /><br />Of course the imaginary QE3 will not be a viable solution since people with time will figure out that QE3 is imaginary and the money is not there. Sooner or later the QE3 money will be created by Bernanke or his successor, but for now Bernanke is trying to delay QE3 in an attempt to escape before things really get out of hand.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00393097454999069261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-46497052608265339922012-11-10T19:38:29.559-08:002012-11-10T19:38:29.559-08:00It works until it doesn't.It works until it doesn't. White Wolfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13965194184809848345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-78166049621041727612012-11-10T14:16:51.523-08:002012-11-10T14:16:51.523-08:00Maybe Bernanke is just letting commodities and sto...Maybe Bernanke is just letting commodities and stocks sell off a little. He also must be worried about Treasuries like TIPS and muni-bond ETF's going parabolic due to Fiscal Cliff worries.<br /><br />Eventually, he'll have to crank up QE3 and step on the gas, perhaps then we will see a selloff in bonds relieve the overbought conditions.<br /><br />QE3 will be initiated to entice "Animal Spirit" buying of equities after they get oversold, and when bonds eventually sell off, Bernanke will use QE3 to slow down the decline so that it is orderly.<br /><br />Of course, that will drive up gold and other commodity prices, but as soon as they get to high, he'll start gum flapping about "price stability" and threaten to stop QE and that will instantaneously crash the CRB index and the Algos will immediately start buying bonds and U.S. Dollars again.<br /><br />Do you guys see how "easy" it is to be a central banker these days with the Algos being led on a leash like a pack of greyhounds chasing a meatball?<br /><br />It is as if Bernanke is purposely engineering a zig zag pattern higher and higher with both stocks and bonds, while the CRB Index remains mired in a predictable trading range.<br /><br />All done with "words" and "threats". If needed, he can always fool around with raising margin requirements if things really get out of hand.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-47521406230663797252012-11-10T12:07:50.603-08:002012-11-10T12:07:50.603-08:00The bonds bought during QE1 and QE2 are not maturi...The bonds bought during QE1 and QE2 are not maturing and coming off the Fed's balance sheet at a similar rate to the 40B/month the Fed is adding. jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18212017825312097996noreply@blogger.com