tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post9037763788031000470..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Gold Price vs Hedge Fund ActivityTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7874555237289928672014-06-24T12:51:11.430-07:002014-06-24T12:51:11.430-07:00It wonder how much everything would sell for from ...It wonder how much everything would sell for from my mom's collection of jewelry. It would be fun to see how much we could make. Gold is going for a lot of money. <a href="http://www.wmje.com/what-we-buy/" rel="nofollow">http://www.wmje.com/</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13042585381760156096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-25961248564175650252014-03-17T22:28:46.395-07:002014-03-17T22:28:46.395-07:00Kid Dynamite;
Nicely done - very detailed work an...Kid Dynamite;<br /><br />Nicely done - very detailed work and a terrific visual...<br /><br />Thanks!<br />DanTrader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-11696548601225413092014-03-17T08:12:30.756-07:002014-03-17T08:12:30.756-07:00Dan -
here are those charts I was asking you abou...Dan - <br />here are those charts I was asking you about - I made them myself:<br /><br />http://kiddynamitesworld.com/drives-price-gold/<br /><br />best,<br />KDKid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59289812898474086632014-03-17T08:11:40.531-07:002014-03-17T08:11:40.531-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-21738979685670554282014-03-15T14:34:47.753-07:002014-03-15T14:34:47.753-07:00Dan - I am working on building this chart right no...Dan - I am working on building this chart right now. if you give me your email address, i will send it to you when I finish it.<br />-KDKid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-83593288279443457302014-03-15T14:20:46.322-07:002014-03-15T14:20:46.322-07:00As a former T Butler newsletter subscriber I can r...As a former T Butler newsletter subscriber I can recall that he made a considerable sum of money in 2010/11 when Silver started its incredible run in that time-frame. He made so much in fact that it made up for several out of the money silver option positions that he had in play for decades since the mid eighties according to him that he just kept rolling over. I am sure he is probably back to square considering the last 3 years. IMO he provides NO wealth generating advice as I cut him loose a few years ago.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11549367655220089014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-81670847798422709682014-03-15T14:17:02.827-07:002014-03-15T14:17:02.827-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11549367655220089014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-16251965076651158712014-03-15T14:04:25.688-07:002014-03-15T14:04:25.688-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-21532169381547534372014-03-15T14:00:10.996-07:002014-03-15T14:00:10.996-07:00I'd buy one for sure, too.
That would be the.....I'd buy one for sure, too.<br />That would be the...second one in ten years about trading :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59977094118910007252014-03-15T13:54:33.090-07:002014-03-15T13:54:33.090-07:00Elijah;
Before I answer that ( it will take a bit...Elijah;<br /><br />Before I answer that ( it will take a bit of digging through mydata and charting it out) are you thinking more along the lines of the broad sideways pattern when $1800 was the top and $1530 or so was the bottom and the price worked within that range for that period?<br /><br />I think I know what you are getting at but want to make sure before I try to chart it out...<br /><br />Thanks buddy.<br />DanTrader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-1718186067669178382014-03-15T13:50:44.589-07:002014-03-15T13:50:44.589-07:00White Wolf;
Pan fried Trout!
I am a bit unclear ...White Wolf;<br /><br />Pan fried Trout!<br /><br />I am a bit unclear as to what you are referring to when you are asking about the Comex numbers? are you referring to the positioning of the hedge funds? If so, that info is available over at the CFTC web site.<br /><br />yes, that Treasury liquidation is indeed a big deal as it is the largest I have on record for such a short period. I really do believe it is the reason behind the drop in the Dollar or better, the lack of safe haven buying that we would normally expect to see coming into the greenback during a geopolitical event. I want to keep a close eye on it because it could have major ramifications for the Dollar in the next few weeks. <br /><br />that data can be found over at the fed web site<br />http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/statisticsdata.htm<br /><br />under factors affecting reserve balances.<br /><br />Hope this helps buddy....<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-1307465508179428902014-03-15T13:37:58.328-07:002014-03-15T13:37:58.328-07:00Dan, the gold crybabies with their Gato, backwarda...Dan, the gold crybabies with their Gato, backwardation, manipulation and naked shorting claims do nothing but show their ignorance as to how these mkts work. If, in the illiquid and quiet times, if the goddamn gold was any good, why don't the kwn crowd and jim willie and I could go on and on, why don't they attack and load up? Because they are born losers, that is why. Gold is gold and nothing more and nothing less. Sure, the mkts are dirty and manipulated and that is always how it has been; only to what degree does it change. So all you Hoosiers, quit wasting everyone's time and if you do not like it, take your balls and bats home and go play jacks in the backyard. Come on and grow up. Sparks, of course Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56093680659318900812014-03-15T13:37:19.132-07:002014-03-15T13:37:19.132-07:00eric webber;
Thanks!eric webber;<br /><br />Thanks!Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-3903705551334230792014-03-15T13:37:02.843-07:002014-03-15T13:37:02.843-07:00soonerstocks;
Precisely! excellent observation.....soonerstocks;<br /><br />Precisely! excellent observation.. it is all about obtaining yield or return on money invested. Funds go to where the action is.....Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-67600322233394508002014-03-15T13:35:58.817-07:002014-03-15T13:35:58.817-07:00Kid Dynamite;
Very well said - manipulation of go...Kid Dynamite;<br /><br />Very well said - manipulation of gold only occurs when the price is moving lower. that is because it is an absolute truth of the universe, that GOLD MUST ALWAYS RISE IN PRICE. sort of like the idea that the sun must always rise in the East. If it does not, something evil is at work.<br /><br />About that gold chart with the net positions.. I will try to get that... have that already set up on a COT chart where I Have the net positions of all the players posted but I wanted to show the outright shorts and longs so as to give the inside the market look at the amount of short covering versus new buying. That is hard to decipher from just using the net position. Let me see if I have some time later this weekend and I will try to get to that... <br />thanks for the comments<br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-16691146179405269342014-03-15T13:24:24.488-07:002014-03-15T13:24:24.488-07:00Thanks Dan. You provide the most useful blogs reg...Thanks Dan. You provide the most useful blogs regarding gold that I can find anywhere. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03261842059724838053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-68734450669909162852014-03-15T13:20:24.557-07:002014-03-15T13:20:24.557-07:00Kid,
You should consider these charts are free! It...Kid,<br />You should consider these charts are free! It is clear enough to make his point..<br />liang3177https://www.blogger.com/profile/15335154574424641442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-45303312402721059802014-03-15T13:14:05.258-07:002014-03-15T13:14:05.258-07:00Paul;
try looking at the bigger picture and viewi...Paul;<br /><br />try looking at the bigger picture and viewing the gold market NOT IN ISOLATION from the other important key markets. By those, I mean the overall direction of the commodity sector taken as a whole, the Yield on the Ten Year Treasury, the VIX, and the Dollar to cite some.<br /><br />Those who keep blathering on endlessly about this flash crash and that flash crash never seem to bother ( it requires the expenditure of a lot of time and dedication to understanding correlations between the markets) to view what is happening in the commodity sector as a whole, the VIX, the Dollar, the equity markets and the currency markets.<br /><br />I can only try to explain to you what I have observed for many, many years now. If you want to believe the infantile theory that every time a large order hits gold, it is another example of the feds manipulating the gold market to drive it lower, I honestly cannot help you.<br /><br />Gold does not trade in isolation from other markets... keep that in mind and a lot of the mystery about it will evaporate and it will be much easier to understand without having to resort to the simplistic notion that "Gold goes up - Good"; " Gold goes down - BAD".<br /><br />How is this one for you... Soybeans get jammed higher - Good - Soybeans go down - Bad...<br /><br />How about this one: " Wheat prices jump sharply higher overnight - BAD; " Wheat prices sell off overnight - Good".<br /><br />Come on already Paul... markets are much more complex as far as their relationships with other markets than the puerile notion that gold getting hit with large orders to sell is proof of evildoers at work.<br /><br />This stuff keeps people blinded to the unity of money flows and why things are doing what they are doing. <br /><br />One last thing - you mentioned "Over the last two years... sharp downward spikes".<br /><br />Do yourself a favor (I Have posted this stuff over and over and over again here) go back through the postings here or better yet, pull up a chart of the CRB index, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, the Dow Jones Commodity index, or any commodity index you want and tell me, and be objective, were commodity prices as a whole moving lower or where they moving higher?<br /><br />Then pull up a chart of the US Dollar and do the same. Then pull up a chart of the VIX and do the same, and lastly pull up a chart of the yield on the Ten Year. If you really want to go the extra mile, pull up a chart of the S&P 500.<br /><br />If you do so, and if you are open-minded and understand the connection between asset sectors, interest rates, fear/lack of fear, interest rates, etc. you will see very easily that there was NO NEED to attack gold if you were the feds because once it broke down below $1530, the entire commodity world was moving lower alongside of it. The VIX was flatlining and equities were soaring. Where do you think money was going?<br /><br />I can tell you where it was NOT going and that was into gold or commodities in general. It was going into equities and chasing big returns.<br /><br />Like I said, all I can do is point you in the right direction my friend. You have to decide for yourself what you believe. You know what my view is. That is not going to change.<br /><br />Thanks for the comments/Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-79394025310336935272014-03-15T13:11:23.060-07:002014-03-15T13:11:23.060-07:00DAN - is this trading pattern with the hedge funds...DAN - is this trading pattern with the hedge funds similar to how gold was trading when it hovered between 1530ish and 1800ish from 2011 to 2013?<br />(sorry I wasn't a reader back then)<br /><br /><br /><br />The Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04786387211895954719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-2967000215855858322014-03-15T13:02:41.184-07:002014-03-15T13:02:41.184-07:00nice post , thanks for your charts.
another way of...nice post , thanks for your charts.<br />another way of saying: many HF are trend followers, esp global/macro.<br />Gold been a key 'long' this yr after being a key 'short' most of '13.<br />it's not politics or conspiracy, but performance trends. $$$ Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-73090394691535348442014-03-15T12:56:26.052-07:002014-03-15T12:56:26.052-07:00Hope I'm not poluting the line, but this is in...Hope I'm not poluting the line, but this is in english, from a russian analyst.<br />http://pozneronline.ru/2014/03/7181/<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-35612637256686994992014-03-15T12:23:09.651-07:002014-03-15T12:23:09.651-07:00No idea.
It's not Crimea that is most importan...No idea.<br />It's not Crimea that is most important imho, rather the Eastern Provinces of Ukraine.<br />The strategy of Russia seems to be :<br />1) secure whole Crimea, thus cutting Ukraine's access to the sea. Ukraine is suddenly economically strangled. It is easy to economically blockade Ukraine if you control all the ports. At least you isolate them.<br />2) Independance vote in Crimea will probably push some eastern Ukraine provinces to ask for a referendum as well. There will be violent protests in those provinces where Russians are significant but close to 50/50. But Russia may use as an excuse this violence to intervene militarily and "protect" russian civilians.<br /><br />Once Russia really invades (you think they are training now against the snails?) eastern Ukraine provinces, then IF the reaction of the West is to integrate Western Ukraine into NATO and send troops to Kiev...we'll have a nice face to face mess.<br />Anyway, it's already a mess now.<br />The dominos as slowing cascading one after the other.<br />Let's hope Russia doesn't set a foot in eastern Ukraine, but tactically, that wouldn't make sense. If Crimea is too close from Moscow to their eyes, then surely Eastern Ukraine is too close as well.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-16612927498568373992014-03-15T12:21:42.948-07:002014-03-15T12:21:42.948-07:00Dan –
I appreciate the thoughtful response, and u...Dan –<br /><br />I appreciate the thoughtful response, and understand your point. It remains difficult, however, to understand how the initial (downward) momentum could be built up unless there were clear intent to drive the price significantly lower. So, yes, I'd call it manipulation. Now, who is manipulating, and why, are separate questions.<br /><br />If your argument is that when gold drops significantly during the quietest trading hours, it is the work of clever traders who represent short interests, and that they are simply taking advantage of the (momentum-based, hedge fund driven system), I could see that as being a plausible explanation for at least some of the spikes. But given the sheer size of some of the trades in question, coupled with the vested interest and firepower that certain other BIG players have, it's difficult for me to imagine that such declines are always due solely to the dynamic that you suggest.<br /><br />KD – <br /><br />There are plenty of skeptics, myself included, who don't ignore price spikes. However, over the past two years in particular, the characteristics of sharp downward spikes have been far more suspicious than those of upward movements in price.Paul Warfieldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15395649881637041633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-28304648525065617512014-03-15T12:00:44.472-07:002014-03-15T12:00:44.472-07:00Dan -
terrific post: one I've been thinking a...Dan - <br />terrific post: one I've been thinking about writing myself.<br /><br />One thing: your graph shows longs/shorts separately... I think if you redo the graph with the net hedge fund position, the correlation will be shown even clearer....<br /><br />can you add that chart? net hedge fund positioning vs the price of gold...Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-57657301229633858942014-03-15T11:58:22.385-07:002014-03-15T11:58:22.385-07:00Dan, not only does it happen in other markets, but...Dan, not only does it happen in other markets, but for some reason gold charlatans *always* ignore the upside moves... like the sharp upward spikes that happened almost every day this week.<br /><br />"No one who is actually intent on receiving the best return for their money would buy a large amount during the most illiquid trading hours"<br /><br />achem...Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.com