tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post8766864495200962070..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: J P Morgan - "Bottom may be in for Gold"Trader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger59125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-15360160252127081892014-01-22T04:52:42.378-08:002014-01-22T04:52:42.378-08:00follow up trade :
- long 1220 right above the ma20...follow up trade :<br />- long 1220 right above the ma20 daily (polarity area, stop loss very close)<br />- out 1/3 at 1238 to secure profit, zero loss trade<br />- out 1/3 at 1250+ after the resistance at 1260 proved to be solid<br />- back 1/3 just under 1239 (the level of my first out 1/3 in fact), because now the ma50 daily became a support and the ma20 is going up, not far behind.<br />Situation : back on my 2/3 long of initial position. Stop loss following up every day with the raising ma20 daily.<br /><br />Remark : it was perfectly fine to try a short gold instead on the weekly time unit under the downwards resistance near 1260 when it proved to be holding. If I had done that, I would have bought back 1/3 of my short yesterday near the ma50 daily, again to secure a no loss trade.<br />In both cases, it is nice to have a stop loss put under a raising support, or above a downwards resistance.<br />The main point in both cases : secure the trade, don't allow a loss, then let prices do what they want.<br />It is more important to find a nice spot to get in the market than to try to anticipate where prices will be in a month.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-66802128792077361972014-01-21T22:56:08.613-08:002014-01-21T22:56:08.613-08:00The main trend, weekly, is still down, as long as ...The main trend, weekly, is still down, as long as 1260 goes down.<br />The ma20 daily going up now, and the proximity of the ma50, gave an opportunity to go long on the very short term, sell a bit under 1260, put a stop loss under the ma20, and see what happens.<br />I'm not doing more than that, not saying yeeeha, the double bottom is there.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-17941806650692304722014-01-21T20:35:28.987-08:002014-01-21T20:35:28.987-08:00Yeah, I think that is about right. I got out the m...Yeah, I think that is about right. I got out the miners when gold peaked last week, but the miners continued surging! argh! Bought back in NUGT (50%) and shorting gold with the other 50%. Too scared to miss the massive mining rally to sit and wait. Would rather be wrong at this level, let the short do it's thing and allow me to average in lower on NUGT. What a calamity!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248703812009022489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-87881443085809230332014-01-21T19:39:07.142-08:002014-01-21T19:39:07.142-08:00If there is plenty why can't the Germans get t...If there is plenty why can't the Germans get their gold back and why does abn amro need to settle their certificates for cash ?Anonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01595034035769200702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-73323655241518432822014-01-21T17:30:22.478-08:002014-01-21T17:30:22.478-08:00I think many think the double bottom is the final ...I think many think the double bottom is the final bottom for gold. Either they're right and are going to make off like bandits or are getting rounded up for the slaughter.The Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04786387211895954719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-36579870173657983182014-01-21T16:49:13.476-08:002014-01-21T16:49:13.476-08:00Dan - would you care to comment on the decoupling ...Dan - would you care to comment on the decoupling that's taking place between the miners and gold? I'm going through the data now and quite fascinated by it. Could be a great short, unless this is the start of a new trend...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248703812009022489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-48501029694865981602014-01-21T15:04:29.106-08:002014-01-21T15:04:29.106-08:00some valid points there, quo_vadis.
My take if th...some valid points there, quo_vadis.<br /><br />My take if the US can hoover up all their population's phone and text messages, and do this without anyone's consent, and also bug the whole communications channels of the rest of the world and also bug the multi-nationals like Petrobase (are Exxon really a public company or a government driven company, after all they go and extract a lot of oil from the Countries that America goes to war with under the pretence of democracy).<br /><br />So, why would the markets not be rigged in the US. It is very easy to do, and get away with it.<br /><br />There are no such thing as free markets, all we can do is hope along for the ride.trystanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13412906631505852304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-10282210577994227392014-01-21T13:57:26.243-08:002014-01-21T13:57:26.243-08:00Yes John,
Still, I'm not the professional trad...Yes John,<br />Still, I'm not the professional trader here :), but as far as I'm concerned, I try never to anticipate whether or not a resistance / support is going to hold.<br />Psychologically, it's when prices reach a support and that the support is tested that some bulls panic most, thinking it will break. But guess what : a support holds until it breaks. Some bulls sell at the worst time on a support, same, they buy just under a resistance because they anticipate a break. <br />So now I'm just giving a chance to see what happens when we get close to a support / resistance. Here under 1260, it's been a whole 3 days that we are bouncing down. It's already enough to show that resistance is here and won't give way without a good fight. So, I'm out a bit, etc... but I'm already back long at 1239 because I see that prices seem to bounce on the MA50 daily again, while the ma20 is definitely reversing up. Anyhow, I'm not getting too much in the details or I would have to post too often :)<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69239676270419444832014-01-21T05:19:09.257-08:002014-01-21T05:19:09.257-08:00Hubert - yeah, I thought $1260 was going to give w...Hubert - yeah, I thought $1260 was going to give way there. Tried to buy GDX yesterday, then my computer informed me it was a national holiday over there! Saved my bacon. All this taper talk is hurting gold. Next week's fed meeting could push the metal back under $1200...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248703812009022489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-55980789309946088822014-01-21T01:56:23.581-08:002014-01-21T01:56:23.581-08:00Resistance at 1260 is there and holding.
It's ...Resistance at 1260 is there and holding.<br />It's a strong one, because it is the downtrend resistance linking tops of the weekly time unit.<br />I'm not detailing my intra-day trades, but the idea is that I keep a bit of my long taken at 1220, in the same time trying to make a profit close to that resistance of 1260. Idea is to win sthg before we go back to 1220, and win sthg too if we get through 1260, so...basically win something whatever prices do :)<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18201102167831069443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-10609555683219746642014-01-20T09:52:17.855-08:002014-01-20T09:52:17.855-08:00What will Mark do if the price of GOLD and SILVER ...What will Mark do if the price of GOLD and SILVER goes up from here?<br /><br /><a href="http://thenewsunit.blogspot.com/2014/01/demand-for-physical-silver-sends.html" rel="nofollow">Demand for PHYSICAL SILVER sends PREMIUM PRICES higher</a><br /><br />I've been accused of being a paper pumper and because I don't stack physical I'm laughed at to scorn. I'll have the last laugh. The News UNIThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02597408419488351139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58982201178420091042014-01-19T11:09:09.785-08:002014-01-19T11:09:09.785-08:00Hi Dan,
Going through the charts this weekend, wh...Hi Dan,<br /><br />Going through the charts this weekend, what is remarkable to me is how the individual resource companies are gaining traction although the metals themselves are not really moving.<br /><br />What is your opinion about the mining shares - not just the gold shares, but uranium and platinum stocks - driving the metals higher? reflexions of redhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15897888972236027540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-89454196289903195482014-01-19T00:01:17.789-08:002014-01-19T00:01:17.789-08:00Dan, I hope you do write a book...I'm sure it&...Dan, I hope you do write a book...I'm sure it'd be a success and worth reading. Have you thought about doing a trading training conference/seminar? You're a professional trader, and I for one would be interested in taking part in such a session. Have a good weekendAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248703812009022489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-195761139647459892014-01-18T20:52:24.083-08:002014-01-18T20:52:24.083-08:00Evidence based research shows that gold is one of ...Evidence based research shows that gold is one of THE most sensitive commodity out there for deflationary.inflationary pressures. It leads other commodities by months, if not longer. <br /><br />Deflationary pressures are certainly accelerating as we enter 1H 2014, particularly as measured by the PPI since March 2011. These deflationary pressures in the PPI should subside in 1H 2014, and then the rest of the commodities will play catch up with gold prices, which will have bottomed months before. john bougearelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16599891472147461756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41676273385551458352014-01-18T20:46:31.176-08:002014-01-18T20:46:31.176-08:00funny too, JPM analysts would focus their bullish ...funny too, JPM analysts would focus their bullish calls on SA gold miners, whose production has been in decline for the past 30 yrs or more while the geopolitics and social discontent in the SA region has only escalated in recent years. Don't suppose the rising social discontent has anything to do with the annual production declines? john bougearelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16599891472147461756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52131798984019218522014-01-18T19:24:26.182-08:002014-01-18T19:24:26.182-08:00Hubert - I think we're in a range bound positi...Hubert - I think we're in a range bound position, with the top at $1260. A daily close above $1270 will kick me out of my short. Until gold clears $1600 or hits $1050, I'll be a bear. $1265 looks significant...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248703812009022489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-21641732890941977122014-01-18T19:21:05.501-08:002014-01-18T19:21:05.501-08:00Dan wrote: "Hey, nothing like acquiring lots ...Dan wrote: "Hey, nothing like acquiring lots of the metal and then letting your analysts give the market a bullish call which essentially guarantees that the price is going to rise and you are going to secure some excellent profits."<br /><br />Can't this be viewed as another type of manipulation?lord kooshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02990996827235679573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69736391312992821172014-01-18T14:59:50.415-08:002014-01-18T14:59:50.415-08:00Thanks for your commentary, Trader Dan!
I have mis...Thanks for your commentary, Trader Dan!<br />I have missed your comments on the weekly metals wrap on KWN. I hope that you are planning do continue to comment there.<br />All the best,<br />Hughhkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12428785353957563396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-67759482520520082892014-01-18T13:48:40.929-08:002014-01-18T13:48:40.929-08:00Interesting to read this to understand price movem...Interesting to read this to understand price movements. It is so important, to watch prices not only in one time unit, but on various time scales, to undestand the dynamic of a trend.<br /><br />- - The Influence of the Various Time Frames - - <br />http://marketpendulum.blogspot.com/p/in-depth-market-coverage.html<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-53036667313651153362014-01-18T12:53:31.254-08:002014-01-18T12:53:31.254-08:00+1 with Steins. It is hard not to be influenced wh...+1 with Steins. It is hard not to be influenced when every gold expert' and their website is telling you that the bottom is near and that prices should go up.<br />You become reluctant to sell, hedge, you try to pick bottoms...<br />That's what I did all the way from 1800 to 1550.<br />(a famous expert saying that T.A was not so relevant this time at 1800 because fundamental conditions were exceptional and it was careless to sell in this situation, etc...).<br />So I was loaded more than I should, and went back to my senses at the last moment, fortunately, and I remember it was mainly because you were having a much more moderate judgement on your weekly commentaries at KWN at that moment (where everyone else was saying that Asian demand was always surging and ensuring a support for gold at 1520. Remember that one? :)).<br />I'm not sure what I would have done if I hadn't had this little voice reminding me that a professional trader in PMs didn't really give a damn what others were saying and would not bet his shirt that further decline was not on the way.<br />I'm pretty sure you helped more people than you imagine.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-1782727396681477792014-01-18T12:00:22.821-08:002014-01-18T12:00:22.821-08:00Elijah;
Yes indeed, precisely my point... Look at...Elijah;<br /><br />Yes indeed, precisely my point... Look at a chart of wheat or coffee or sugar, etc. Very similar patterns... That is something the GIAMATT crowd simply cannot come to grips with and why their arguments ring so hollow to those who understand money flows and market sentiment.<br /><br />It is a given that one of the FIVE PILLARS for Gold is rising commodity prices. That has simply NOT been happening. When the commodity sector as a whole shows signs of stabilizing, so too will gold. This might possibly be happening now but the jury is still out on that in my view and that is why I am more ambivalent about gold here right now. I have no opinion on it other that what the charts are currently telling me which is that the short term downtrend has been halted but the market has also not yet embarked on an uptrend. <br /><br />The weekly chart still shows the bears in control of the gold market right now. So it has shown some signs of real improvement in its technical posture but the bulls have much more work to do yet.<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-46464133819811475182014-01-18T11:12:02.926-08:002014-01-18T11:12:02.926-08:00Also look at DBA which can also be used as a measu...Also look at DBA which can also be used as a measure of inflation, it gapped down Friday touching to all time lows:<br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DBAThe Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04786387211895954719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-50694066128297366432014-01-18T11:08:15.290-08:002014-01-18T11:08:15.290-08:00Look at this one year chart of corn, collapse from...Look at this one year chart of corn, collapse from $700 to $500, very reminiscent of the waterfall "take down" of gold in April. Would this be manipulation too?! No it's just how commodities trade in a bear market. Why would someone want to manipulate corn down:<br /><br />http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/quote?symbol=%2fZCThe Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04786387211895954719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-4936968892171952822014-01-18T10:36:32.226-08:002014-01-18T10:36:32.226-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-34594260585288584752014-01-18T10:11:53.453-08:002014-01-18T10:11:53.453-08:00Steve;
I would make the same arguments with Andre...Steve;<br /><br />I would make the same arguments with Andrew that I have made here - gold requires a strong inflationary force/sentiment to be present across the hard asset sector - RISING COMMODITY PRICES and a weakness/loss of confidence in the curreny/monetary authorities. It also requires NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES - that means that the rate of inflation is higher than the yield on a one year Treasury. None of those factors have been present over the last two years. <br /><br />As a matter of fact, the US Dollar has been fairly solid over this time frame as well. <br /><br />Any person who understands gold will point out that they are certain FUNDAMENTAL PILLARS ( by dear friend Jim Sinclair pointed these out many years ago in his CLASSIC FIVE PILLARS of GOLD).<br /><br />Among those 5 pillars were a SINKING DOLLAR AND RISING COMMODITY PRICES. tell me Steve - and try to set aside any preconceived ideas that you might or might not have - be OBJECTIVE and Pull up the price charts for yourself - HAVE THESE TWO PILLARS been present or not during these last two years, but more especially - the last year?<br /><br />If you are objective you will see that they have NOT BEEN. <br /><br />The entire commodity complex has been moving lower, not higher as it was when gold was soaring. The US Dollar has been moving slowly higher, not lower. Also REAL INTEREST RATES in the US have been positive. As a matter of fact, among the industrialized nations of the West, the US is the only country were RISING RATES are more likely. That tends to undercut investment demand for gold because it throws off no yield whatsoever. <br /><br />Try to understand gold from an investment standpoint and you will be able to better understand its ups and its down without getting caught up in all this emotional and sensational hype that is far too common among the gold bugs. <br /><br />Remain objective and emotionless in your trading/investment decisions and you will succeed.<br /><br />I have been giving some thought about possibly writing a book about successful trading. If I do, the one thing I will lay heavy emphasis upon is that most traders/investors are their OWN WORST ENEMY. They cannot remain unbiased nor can their curtail their emotions and that is why so many cannot admit that they are wrong and that a trade/investment has gone sour against them.<br /><br />There is an old trader's adage: "the first loss is the best loss". What that means is that the earlier you get out of a losing trade, the better off you will be.<br /><br />Hope this helps.<br />DanTrader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.com