tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post8569694184169170362..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: USDA Surprises Corn and Bean MarketsTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-22275384022399899062013-10-01T08:01:01.166-07:002013-10-01T08:01:01.166-07:00There is no difference. If I am short two contract...There is no difference. If I am short two contracts, that is about 60% hedged. If I am 4 contracts short that is enough to profit and pay the cap gains taxes. On days like this that are paint the tape. i am short 5 contracts. two are in and out scalps, since intraday volatility is extreme.<br /><br />I am banking on lower prices. I actually profit with prices dropping, even with my physical holdings.Eph 6:7https://www.blogger.com/profile/12432153510281295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-3354904049329063402013-10-01T07:15:56.907-07:002013-10-01T07:15:56.907-07:00Eph, maybe you can explain the physical and paper ...Eph, maybe you can explain the physical and paper gold thing to me since you brought it up. Your physical is worth about 1300 today correct? It's not much different than spot price, maybe a bit of a premium because of storage and delivery. If gold hits $1000, no one will pay you $1300 for you physical, correct? Also this talk of GLD being trained of physical, well that's cause there is no demand for it so inventory is kept low, I think inventory was highest in 2011 when gold was hitting 1900 because there was high demand. I think I read that on this blog. So what gives???The Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11595344655963613167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-74918051555640208302013-10-01T06:31:00.366-07:002013-10-01T06:31:00.366-07:00there is more than enough gold to drop it to 1000....there is more than enough gold to drop it to 1000. never forget this. Miners will add more hedges today, too... Look at this as a good thing. If one is careful he can add a lot of gold by weight to his holdings.<br /><br />I had 60% of my physical hedged while I took a dump and made coffee. I came back and gold was down 30. A blown opportunity, though trading is in the green. The globalists want us in paper. Hedge all gold and when it hits 1000 take your paper profits and buy more.<br /><br />I didn't have my stops in. Just as well. I can imagine my executions on the market stops this morning. This movement is done on purpose to blow traders out of the water and to get terrible executions.<br /><br />I trade from the short side. Learn to root for lower prices. They are coming, so position oneself accordingly, and when they come you can get excited.Eph 6:7https://www.blogger.com/profile/12432153510281295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59169066395719289642013-10-01T06:28:33.042-07:002013-10-01T06:28:33.042-07:00Going down
This will probably be the big gold wash...Going down<br />This will probably be the big gold washout.<br />I am surprised at how complacent the stock market is....of course it is back stopped by the FED, that is all you need to know.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12484142363488637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-78973645293715214502013-10-01T06:27:28.613-07:002013-10-01T06:27:28.613-07:00The second leg of the Triple Waterfall Crash has j...The second leg of the Triple Waterfall Crash has just now commenced.<br /><br />The shutdown will immediately start erasing the deficits and bring forced austerity our bloated government.<br /><br />This will trigger one of the greatest economic booms of all time, and the added tax revenues will contributing to a gradual decline in our government debt, the first time ever.<br /><br />Stay in the system.<br /><br />Ignore the gloomers and enjoy life.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58394385872329759062013-10-01T06:03:47.893-07:002013-10-01T06:03:47.893-07:00good points, Hubert. also, kudos to preditor 1976 ...good points, Hubert. also, kudos to preditor 1976 for bearish call; steve in sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-18127564216563924702013-10-01T06:00:58.465-07:002013-10-01T06:00:58.465-07:00good advice, Hubert Du Haut!good advice, Hubert Du Haut!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10366683894545649989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-4379042280615398892013-10-01T05:35:56.636-07:002013-10-01T05:35:56.636-07:00@arnie : YES!
If noone is there to buy it back on...@arnie : YES! <br />If noone is there to buy it back on the paper side.<br /><br />For the readers who are here because they hope to find a better estimation for gold's direction, bottom, timing, etc... than on perma bull websites, I will give my humble warning.<br />On the long-term, which is probably what you are interested at, you have to consider time units as long as Quarterly time units.<br /><br />On a pure technical point of view, on this time unit, I see that we had a huge bad marubozu in Q2, followed by an uptrend correction which didn't hold above the middle of the body of the Marubozu (1412). It looks like a "ligne de poussee", which is weak.<br />The top we made around 1430 $ represents a mere 38% Fibonacci retracement of the last one way move from 1805 to 1180.<br /><br />If I watch the Bollinger Bands on this time unit, the lower Bollinger Bands are going up but are only at around 850 $.<br />So, theoritically, it is absolutely possible, techincally speaking, to see gold prices crach down to 850 $ and bump from there.<br />850 $ would be my minimum extreme target for gold.<br /><br />If you take into account a chart of the 12 last years of price action in a quarterly time unit, this doesn't even look terrible. Look at Oil prices a few years ago when they crached back down to 30 $...<br /><br />So, consider 1000 $ as a real possibility and handle the position that you can handle at the moment with that possibility in mind.<br /><br />I'm not saying that to discourage you or to make you sell.<br />I'm saying that to make sure you are ready to stand the heat, because the Bears are counting on your emotions in a panic to create capitulation and collapse. <br />If your position is too big to handle a collapse to 1000 $, maybe just sell some of it now that you are still at 1300 $+, and then forget about it and stop eating your fingernails / watching gold prices every day. <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-36938310820259798162013-10-01T05:32:33.773-07:002013-10-01T05:32:33.773-07:00apparently so....! apparently so....! Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10366683894545649989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-34048473433817831712013-10-01T05:05:37.984-07:002013-10-01T05:05:37.984-07:00can it be that easy to knock gold down on nothing?...can it be that easy to knock gold down on nothing?arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17597016551120682781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-1197764523191358672013-10-01T03:08:22.661-07:002013-10-01T03:08:22.661-07:00Yes, the information that Armstrong stated (yen/do...Yes, the information that Armstrong stated (yen/dollar moving from 147 to 103) was likely over 18 months (1998 to mid-1999) not days. He needs a good editor. But his ideas are sound and the guy knows his stuff. You can learn a lot from him if you can overlook his poor grammar and occasional errors (that was one of the first that I've seen).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248703812009022489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-26738549980186258572013-09-30T21:15:49.873-07:002013-09-30T21:15:49.873-07:00Look for SMALL "V" recoveries in each wh...Look for SMALL "V" recoveries in each when the algos kick in.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186209542645350484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-62998219044259697962013-09-30T21:13:40.133-07:002013-09-30T21:13:40.133-07:00I would suspect the ESF will be buying enormous am...I would suspect the ESF will be buying enormous amounts of dollars tomorrow, and bonds, and stocks...Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186209542645350484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37051729172665319372013-09-30T20:57:32.935-07:002013-09-30T20:57:32.935-07:00Thanks, Arnie. I am starting to review historical ...Thanks, Arnie. I am starting to review historical documents. But I didn't realize the issues we are having now are IDENTICAL to the issues faced in 1934. The only thing that has changed are the players. And the talk of Gold Standard.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186209542645350484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-12295113752332753912013-09-30T20:50:22.584-07:002013-09-30T20:50:22.584-07:00Based on the current stance on the daily chart (*w...Based on the current stance on the daily chart (*with my amateur perspective)...who else thinks gold and silver is ready to jump higher very soon...not many I bet?! :-)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10366683894545649989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52218639527354670982013-09-30T18:54:09.007-07:002013-09-30T18:54:09.007-07:00How about Fukushima? Getting worse by the day. W...How about Fukushima? Getting worse by the day. What happens when most of Japan becomes uninhabitable and the US west coast is in total panic. The time for portable wealth that can't be debased has arrived. own_qualityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10468980518080976627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82328292240165617312013-09-30T18:35:02.419-07:002013-09-30T18:35:02.419-07:00That is well written and insightful, and true.That is well written and insightful, and true.arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17597016551120682781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71983438177941876972013-09-30T18:32:01.222-07:002013-09-30T18:32:01.222-07:00BTW, the ESF is not all bad. It serves its purpose...BTW, the ESF is not all bad. It serves its purpose on the world stage as it was intended. Just don't be part of the carnage.... when the tornado comes through, you get out of Dodge. Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186209542645350484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69767472301585925072013-09-30T17:45:51.795-07:002013-09-30T17:45:51.795-07:00The only way to beat these guys is to take the inf...The only way to beat these guys is to take the infinite dollars we get through our labor, and buy the FINITE amount of gold. once the physical is in your hands, no one can manipulate it from you unless you let them. <br /><br />The Exchange Stabilization Fund can take from whomever it wishes as it has INFINITE resources backed by the good faith and credit of the United States Treasury, and the Federal Reserve. If they want ANY commodity (commodities/stocks/bonds) to move in a direction, they can make it happen. They will look out for whats in the best interest of the many, or the few, depending on the current goal. If the goal is for votes, they manipulate in favor of the many (stocks/bonds/real estate). When they want to favor the few... the levelings happen (lehman/bear sterns/wa mu/...bailout GS, JPM, WF, BofA)... It is a fool's errand to figure it out. You are lucky or you are not, OR YOU HAVE FRIENDS THAT ARE MAKING THE CALLS. That is why so many are having a time of making sense of this. It is meant to confuse, then take. Buy physical. Sit tight. Take care of your faith, family, and friends, and pray hard for discernment.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186209542645350484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-43874458250981837292013-09-30T16:37:02.916-07:002013-09-30T16:37:02.916-07:00michael, I find this one more interesting.
"H...michael, I find this one more interesting.<br />"How does it end? China simply defaults on any outstanding paper contracts. The answer as to when they might do that is when there are no significant existing holdings to be acquired. We appear to be getting very close to that moment with the dramatic reduction of above ground supplies throughout the Western central bank vaults.'..."Having the reserve currency status is a huge advantage. Faced with the choice between allowing the Chinese to acquire 10,000 tons of gold that could very well dethrone the dollar longer-term and an immediate dethroning if U.S. treasuries were unloaded, one can see the Fed choosing the option that buys more time. Strategically, the U.S. avoids an immediate collapse of the dollar and the loss of reserve currency status. The Chinese get cheap gold, but this means that the dollar won’t be dethroned, at least for now."Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-42869367223706022052013-09-30T15:48:08.684-07:002013-09-30T15:48:08.684-07:00Funny you guys would bring this up. I was just thi...Funny you guys would bring this up. I was just thinking about this this morning.<br />I'm a cabinet builder, do lots of kitchens and see lots of people buy $4k - $8k cook stoves, or more! You can buy a really good one for about $1500.00. Six burners, griddle, excellent performance.<br />There both just damn steel boxes, one stainless the other porcelain finish.<br />They'll both last 20-40 years. But both will look about the same, pretty damn used.<br /><br />Steinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00942479731737741804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59981481574568858652013-09-30T14:20:39.376-07:002013-09-30T14:20:39.376-07:00Hey Prophet
I'm with you on that, no matter wh...Hey Prophet<br />I'm with you on that, no matter what the news...it is now always gold negative...almost like a permanent rule or axiom.<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12484142363488637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-57606268712177393732013-09-30T14:14:18.739-07:002013-09-30T14:14:18.739-07:00Question is which direction will gold go. Likely ...Question is which direction will gold go. Likely no matter the outcome, down for now?! Might as well.The Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11595344655963613167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-81296279433040028802013-09-30T14:03:02.313-07:002013-09-30T14:03:02.313-07:00These headlines have been playing for years now.
I...These headlines have been playing for years now.<br />It is probably going to be true someday but don't hold your breath.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12484142363488637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88279271437940380852013-09-30T13:06:46.339-07:002013-09-30T13:06:46.339-07:00The usual drama
There is no way they will shut dow...The usual drama<br />There is no way they will shut down.<br />Probably a good time to go long DOW.<br />Tonight they will come to a compromise and tomorrow US equities will go wild.<br />Note that the consumer discretionary XLY and XRT hardly budge no matter what the news.<br />Bullet proofAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12484142363488637120noreply@blogger.com