tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post7808365069108296761..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Housing Number Trips up GoldTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-16442307975006948442013-07-25T10:15:19.903-07:002013-07-25T10:15:19.903-07:00Dan,
isn't it strange to see the dollar going ...Dan,<br />isn't it strange to see the dollar going down while the 10 Year Treasury goes up?<br />It seems to me that higher interest should be positive for the dollar as higher rate means more dollar buying. Is it possible that despite higher rates foreigners are still not buying treasuries which seems to explain the lower purchases of treasuries as seen in recent stats?<br /> <br />IF this is the case there is no way for the FED to reduce its purchase of treasury (on the contrary as the FED would be the lender of last resort) and the "tapering" story is just that a story. This is what I think is happening and why I said a few days ago that checking the price of gold, the USD AND Treasuries is so important. IF I am right gold should go a lot higher and the USD down.<br /><br />The fact that home builders are down and comments from executives (home builders) indicating that higher interest rates are putting sales down are an indication that something is terribly wrong and the FED is powerless.Huberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05233332512788687701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69788952805960539262013-07-25T09:18:10.986-07:002013-07-25T09:18:10.986-07:00wackzingo -
you're quite welcome... for a go...wackzingo - <br /><br />you're quite welcome... for a good primer on TA in general there is an old but good book written years ago entitled, "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee.<br /><br />It is dated but for an introduction, it will give you the basic nuts and bolts and allow you to obtain a scaffold upon which you can build in the future as your knowledge increases.<br /><br />try that for a starter....<br /><br />DanTrader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-75974734951693115512013-07-25T08:04:36.860-07:002013-07-25T08:04:36.860-07:00Hubert du Haut;
Thanks as always for your comment...Hubert du Haut;<br /><br />Thanks as always for your comments. What I am actually saying however is that backwardation is not happening at all on the Comex, not even for a for minutes. I was using absurdity to illustrate the absurd.<br /><br />For example - here is the latest series of bids for the August, December, February and June gold comex contracts in order as of this snapshot.<br /><br />August - $1324.2<br />December $1325.1<br />February $1326.1<br />June $$1328.4<br /><br />As usual I am sitting here and have been watching this all morning as well as a goodly portion of last evening's trade and not once has any nearby contract had a bid higher than a back month.<br /><br />There is no backwardation occurring on the Comex at this present time for any time interval whatsoever.<br /><br />I am attempting to teach folks about this so as to prevent the spreading of more disinformation that so frequently afflicts the gold bug community. This is the reason why more often than not, many of them get discredited and end up doing disservice to their cause. <br /><br />The reason why some contracts occasionally have a last trade price higher than a more distant month is because the more distant months are not trading as frequently because there is no liquidity in those months.<br /><br />when you have a volume of trade of 182,000 in a nearby versus 2,085 in a more distant February for example - there are going to be times when the last trade price of a more distant month might be at a discount to a nearby. That is merely a function of low liquidity. If you want to see where the contract might trade IF AN ACTUAL TRADE OCCURRED, you have to look at the Bids and Offers and see where those are currently sitting.<br /><br />In the time it took me to type the above comments, here is now the latest series of bids...<br /><br />August $1325.3<br />December $$1326.3<br />FEbruary $1327.4<br />June $1329.7<br /><br />Again, notice the market is in contango at all times. There is not a single instance of backwardation.<br /><br />This might help dispel any confusion about this current misinformation going around but in all honesty, I doubt it. Most gold buys are pretty closed mind about this stuff having made up their minds beforehand, truth be damned.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-11242472676520909472013-07-25T08:02:44.922-07:002013-07-25T08:02:44.922-07:00Dan - Thanks! I'm continually astounded by the...Dan - Thanks! I'm continually astounded by the generosity of your posts & willingness to answer questions. MDLGTOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06636563285000423292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82355512598473378782013-07-25T05:30:04.659-07:002013-07-25T05:30:04.659-07:00lol, as long as it is not in the very same newspap...lol, as long as it is not in the very same newspaper... (but I think it happened in Bloomberg :))Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-13746786437624054822013-07-25T05:28:49.128-07:002013-07-25T05:28:49.128-07:00Just watching silver as we are in a triangle betwe...Just watching silver as we are in a triangle between two short-term trends, one up (red), one down (blue), maybe the way out will give a clue about gold as well.<br /><br />http://s21.postimg.org/405tk232f/slv.jpg<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-73273233257472523892013-07-25T05:17:28.352-07:002013-07-25T05:17:28.352-07:00Thanks Hubert and Pred,
About an hour to go:) Not...Thanks Hubert and Pred,<br /><br />About an hour to go:) Noticed the headlines today...<br /><br />YAHOO Finance: GM profit beats on strong US demand<br /><br />Drudge Report: GM Profits Plunge... <br /><br />I kid you not.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186209542645350484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9975628686575954592013-07-25T04:48:38.404-07:002013-07-25T04:48:38.404-07:0015 months? Same here :) :) Congratulations.
Orwell...15 months? Same here :) :) Congratulations.<br />Orwell was an optimistic.<br />He forgot that the population would be totally debilitated.<br /><br /><br />http://noam-chomsky.tumblr.com/post/13867896307/noam-chomsky-10-strategies-of-manipulation-by-theAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-29818896704922385402013-07-25T04:43:30.923-07:002013-07-25T04:43:30.923-07:00Hi Stuart,
Dan is only saying that a real backward...Hi Stuart,<br />Dan is only saying that a real backwardation starts at least at the close, on a daily time unit, and that any inferior time unit, even the hour, is mere "noise" but no real backwardation. Backwardation is the consequence of a phenomenon. The backwardation you mention on a hourly time unit doesn't seem to be enough to signify this phenomenon is occuring.<br />So, your position is that you choose to take into account minutes or hours of backwardation intraday, which is your choice.<br />I think by now, both positions are clear and it's your choice not to agree with Dan in the end. <br />I'm no specialist, but I think you are doing it at your own risk. It's your call.<br />Please don't lose your tempers...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71575421332816929542013-07-25T03:38:50.945-07:002013-07-25T03:38:50.945-07:00Dan,
First, I have to say THANK YOU for being so ...Dan,<br /><br />First, I have to say THANK YOU for being so willing to share your knowledge. I have already learned so much but still feel incredibly lost. It's been difficult to find good material that explains how to trade commodities and everything that goes with it like technical analysis. I have a Scott Trade & E-Trade account but that's about as much as I know. Can you recommend any books? wackzingohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10778929946613112705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-87243138214001767012013-07-24T23:00:52.140-07:002013-07-24T23:00:52.140-07:00Hi Nate ...
Congratulation on your new born ...
...Hi Nate ...<br /><br />Congratulation on your new born ...<br /><br />For investment idea.... there is lot of thing you need to learn not just TA .... Chart and reality is different thing ...<br /><br />Of all indication , the best is fundamental and timing.<br /><br />For example, if there massive short in near month, it is important to see the availability of the commodity in near month. at the delivery point the situation might cause exposition to either side .<br /><br />Like rough rice, this structure is in extreme bearish ...<br /><br />http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/rough-rice.html.<br /><br />Always remember , undervalue commodity especially below cost of production will create future delivery problem as below cost of production automatic remove excess through market mechanism .<br /><br />For the timing ... I would really would like to help you out.. but it is most value tool for me .. just remember that everything have it cycle ... master this , you will get 80% right most of the time ..Preditor1976https://www.blogger.com/profile/13949210660675876231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-44554289698900576002013-07-24T22:31:59.351-07:002013-07-24T22:31:59.351-07:00Hi Dan...
I don't think the high housing cau...Hi Dan...<br /><br /><br />I don't think the high housing cause the bull off guard.... whether it is bull or it is bear... it is control by market maker..they play both side.<br /><br />Well ... base on TA ... the short need to stop loss at that level ... base on volume .. it do the math .. they just creampie all the short .... FYI ... there is little blood left for the bull HOWEVER ... I will leave this part for myself .<br /><br />So daily news mean nothing in reality is just sentiment and short term situation...<br /><br /><br />cheer ....Preditor1976https://www.blogger.com/profile/13949210660675876231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-79251031244269217662013-07-24T21:18:40.472-07:002013-07-24T21:18:40.472-07:00Thanks, Dan. My 15 month old is gonna be shocked w...Thanks, Dan. My 15 month old is gonna be shocked when little man comes home. Getting expensive buying them gold to help protect their future! We are ALL going to pay for our generation's profligacy, but they will pay more. I'm reading 1984 right now and am blown away by Orwell's foresight. It's like I'm reading today's news...Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186209542645350484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-31934999628146520172013-07-24T21:06:49.625-07:002013-07-24T21:06:49.625-07:00Nate - congratulations BIG TIME on your first boy!...Nate - congratulations BIG TIME on your first boy!<br /><br />It is he and his generation who will pay the price for our generation's profligacy....<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-2314798005651852802013-07-24T21:05:07.699-07:002013-07-24T21:05:07.699-07:00MDLGTO;
Yes, the depletion of the Comex inventori...MDLGTO;<br /><br />Yes, the depletion of the Comex inventories is far more significant than the backwardation, that does not exist,chatter. <br /><br />I for one will be curious to see how the delivery process for August goes as that will start next week.<br /><br />If we were to have any sort of delivery issues, that would see the August contract run to a sharp premium over the December and we would then actually get a true backwardation. <br /><br />For now, I am more interested in whether or not the Dollar continues to strengthen or if traders are going to start focusing on the upcoming US debt ceiling issue. We went through that back at the end of last year and here we are hitting right up against a ceiling again.<br /><br />At some point, investors and traders world wide will begin focusing on the size of the US debt but as short-sighted as today's investors are, they will ignore it until it forces itself upon them. <br /><br />my kids will certainly have to deal with it however.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-40969547076607699062013-07-24T20:04:41.713-07:002013-07-24T20:04:41.713-07:00Hi Nate. Actually, Dan has done this exact exercis...Hi Nate. Actually, Dan has done this exact exercise before--perhaps in the comments section. Anyway, it was a few months back when other people were proclaiming backwardation. <br /><br /><br />Dan, do you have a view on what people are pointing out as rapid depletion of comex inventories? (I may have missed it).MDLGTOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06636563285000423292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-18257488077123647542013-07-24T19:16:54.369-07:002013-07-24T19:16:54.369-07:00You keep saying "A few minutes" why do ...You keep saying "A few minutes" why do you keep saying that when it was hours, not minutes? I am well aware of what you're saying, it's not a difficult concept to grasp. But you know, as well as I, that any backwardationin gold, I repeat ANY backwardation is gold is extremely rare. And the fact that it has been slipping into backwardation for HOURS not MINUTES, is also extremely rare. The fact that the curve is in a position to slip in and out of backwardation DAILY< is also VERY rare. You believe it is of no consequence, I disagree. And for the record, you have repeatedly insulted me, I have simply disagreed with you and your dismissing the fact that this happening repeatedly, for HOURS at at a time is insignificant. Now you can go ahead and call me some more names, but for the record, I have not treated you nearly as disrespectfully as you have treated me. If I have, I ask you read my posts and show me where.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09720016302266077721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7275451379986552482013-07-24T19:06:20.094-07:002013-07-24T19:06:20.094-07:00Still no mention on ANY site about the $17T debt a...Still no mention on ANY site about the $17T debt announced at the last Bernanke testimony. JS Mineset did post the picture of the television screen I took, but still no CHATTER... Mind-boggling.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186209542645350484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-81147049397644770692013-07-24T18:55:58.369-07:002013-07-24T18:55:58.369-07:00Dan,
I want to thank you for this post. For the f...Dan,<br /><br />I want to thank you for this post. For the first time, I finally somewhat understand backwardation! Everyone that claims gold is in backwardation uses prices AT A POINT IN TIME to their advantage like politicians use stats to their advantage (manipulation of data, or garbage in/garbage out). <br /><br />On the flip side, people like you that have kept saying it is NOT in backwardation, have not explained truly what backwardation is to beginners like me. So I have been sitting here scratching my head (in the birthing room of the hospital awaiting my first boy) trying to figure out how the heck objective arithmetic can be subjectified (my new invented word) by individuals pushing their own point.<br /><br />So thanks!Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186209542645350484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-84288318648640209402013-07-24T18:54:08.287-07:002013-07-24T18:54:08.287-07:00Hey Stuart, did you ever read "Nobody Would L...Hey Stuart, did you ever read "Nobody Would Listen", by Harry Markopolos? He had a funny story where he took 6 guys from the SEC to Fenway and it took 5 of them until the 7th inning to figure out where 2nd base was. In the 11th inning, the 6th guy says, hey, I got it, "there's 2nd base"! Was that you, Stuart?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-76667945183550135812013-07-24T18:28:06.277-07:002013-07-24T18:28:06.277-07:00Stuart - do you want to learn or not? If yes, then...Stuart - do you want to learn or not? If yes, then fine - I will happily teach you at no charge. If not, then please leave the site.<br /><br />Your posts reveal that you have not the faintest clue what a backwardation structure in a market means. It is not some fleeting thing that comes and goes and one might happen to miss if they leave the computer to take a bathroom break and the prices change for those few minutes.<br /><br />It means that that the commodity is in a serious short supply which is not able to keep up with current demand levels. What the futures board then does is to move into backwardation to entice sellers to part with the metal RIGHT THEN AND NOW instead of holding onto it later in hopes of a better price in the future.<br /><br />That is done by pushing the price higher ABOVE The back months and taking away the incentive to hold or store the particular commodity.<br /><br />Now how in the hell can a market be in such short supply, with such unstoppable demand, that by the end of the day, all of the futures contracts are in a contango structure? Do you realize how foolish you sound by trying to press this point?<br /><br />A market with a true supply shortage will REMAIN THAT WAY all the way into the closing bell and will maintain that structure for as long as is necessary for the current shortage to be alleviated.<br /><br />According to your thesis - gold was in strong demand, so strong that the supply could not meet it, but hark, suddenly, that all went away for a few minutes. Oh, no, wait a minute, I made a mistake... the supply shortage just kicked in again... whoops, that went back away again... and over and over again.<br /><br />Stop with the foolishness and learn something and be the wiser for it. Then again, you can always hold onto your foolishness and let your pride keep you from learning something and perhaps learning to read the markets a bit better in the future. Keep in mind I am not charging you a dime to impart this stuff to you. At the very least, you could show some respect and not be so damned bullheaded.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-27309124084195636672013-07-24T18:10:21.116-07:002013-07-24T18:10:21.116-07:00Why is it that all that matters is the close? Why...Why is it that all that matters is the close? Why is that the case? ?And I am well aware that some contracts are very thinly traded, and I know how to look at volume. The fact is that even the heavily traded contracts were trading backwardated pretty much all day. If you read my initial post, I did stipulated that the backwardation was minimal, but it certainly lasted a heck of a lot more than if seconds. We were backwardated out until 12/14 for over three hours today. If you want to boot me, its your site and I certainly understand, but that doesn't mean what I'm saying is incorrect. It is not.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09720016302266077721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82809198235373494402013-07-24T18:01:14.049-07:002013-07-24T18:01:14.049-07:00Stuart;
Before you make a complete fool of yoursel...Stuart;<br />Before you make a complete fool of yourself, you should know that I have a permanent indentation in my chair from sitting here over 20 years watching price action every single market trading day all day long.<br /><br />What has you confused ( and I might say you should show some respect and not be so damned arrogant ) is that you are looking at LAST TRADE prices and not BIDS AND OFFERS. <br /><br />The mistake you are making is that of a novice who does not understand that the liquidity in the off months and in the distant months is no where near that of the most active month. There are intervals in which NO TRADES whatsoever will be executed for those back month gold contracts all the while the active month is trading many times a minute. That will leave you with last trade prices that do not move all the while the more active months are moving and trading many times over.<br /><br />Check the bids and offers tomorrow and you will see. By the way, I am currently sitting here watching the trade in the Asian session and not a single one of the nearer dated contracts is trading ABOVE the more distant ones. <br /><br /> In the meantime, tone down your arrogance or your comments will all be deleted. I do not suffer fools at this site.<br /><br />And incidentally, all that matters in a backwardation market is the CLOSE. True supply shortages do not show up for 15 seconds and then disappear by the time the market closes.<br /><br />If you want to learn look at the soybean market which has truly been in a backwardated structure and is now losing it.<br /><br />Consider this my last response to you on this subject unless you get uppity and snotty in which case your comments will be deleted.<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-50792999864329004502013-07-24T17:45:03.948-07:002013-07-24T17:45:03.948-07:00Well Dan, I didnt say closing price. I've bee...Well Dan, I didnt say closing price. I've been watching the board all day and the curve was backwardated pretty much all day. Sorry, you're wrong.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09720016302266077721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-19225717979605924462013-07-24T17:12:06.898-07:002013-07-24T17:12:06.898-07:00Stuart;
here are the closing prices for the vario...Stuart;<br /><br />here are the closing prices for the various gold contracts on the Comex board:<br /><br />August Gold $1319.50<br />December Gold $ $1320.1<br />February Gold $ 1321.10<br />June Gold $ $1323.50<br /><br />There is NO BACKWARDATION STRUCTURE on the Board. Period!<br /><br />Every month on out is running contango. The spreads have tightened up somewhat but are not in backwardation.<br /><br />Many markets have spot market prices trading above the futures contract for near term delivery. That is not unusual as demand in some areas can be strong and impact the basis in that locale. But if the futures board is not showing a backwardation structure, it means nothing.<br /><br />I hope this is the last post I have to put up about this nonsense. AS I have stated ad infinitum, ad nauseaum - IF and WHEN the futures board were to move into a true backwardation structure, I will duly note it here and will certainly then pay attention to it because THEN it will mean something.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.com