tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post7710769624718338680..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: For this Year's Christmas ListTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56576376455674371052015-01-13T00:28:31.420-08:002015-01-13T00:28:31.420-08:00I don't remember where I read it first, here o...I don't remember where I read it first, here or somewhere else but Venezuela was selling off its US refineries and maybe some Citgo gas stations to pay the bills at home. Typical selling at the bottom of a market instead of at the top. They are getting desperate. The country has oil but it is heavy crude (sulphur rich?) and has to be sent to the US for refinement.<br />http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/06/us-refinery-sale-citgo-pete-idUSKBN0IQ2AH20141106<br /><br />Then the last thing I read was McDonald's there in Venezuela was in short supply of french fried. McDonald's claimed it was due to West Coast dock strikes or slow downs. Funny no other countries in South America are reporting a french fries shortage. So goes Communism or whatever socialist flavor of the month it is called.<br /><br />Speaking of Communism, without the counter opinions of Armstrong types, I would have no perspective all. Just the one sided propaganda machines output via the local US press to rely on and I don't think anybody can withstand a constant brow beating.<br />anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13458537409932488443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-83251459257957513742015-01-11T08:38:36.288-08:002015-01-11T08:38:36.288-08:00Rico;
That is some very interesting feedback my f...Rico;<br /><br />That is some very interesting feedback my friend. I thank you for sharing it. I will run this past the guys who manage the comments site and see what they think as well.<br /><br />DanTrader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-30224004045941911142015-01-11T07:24:42.199-08:002015-01-11T07:24:42.199-08:00Dan, your commentary on the new site is first-rate...Dan, your commentary on the new site is first-rate. What I found problematic was the "comment system" (for lack of a better term).<br /><br />One of the great things about this (old) site is that comments follow your commentary. This keeps everything focused on the topic at hand. On the new Beehive, you have to start a new string just to comment, then make sure it references a certain commentary if you want to start a discussion. Maybe it's better now, but I did not find that people were really very interested in doing that, so that interesting discussions almost never got started.<br /><br />Also, the better posters here didn't join, so they were not even there to even try to make the Beehive work, discussion-wise. I found that many new threads were just newbies asking for your opinion, or pros posting their analysis (which often had nothing whatsoever to do with your commentary) It produced a very "dissociated" vibe.<br /><br />I would consider becoming a paying member again if the site could be redesigned to allow comments to logically follow your articles. Everyone does it this way: WSJ, SA, etc. It's just logical.<br /><br />This is meant as POSITIVE criticism, and I would love to hear your take on these issues. Thanks for keeping this old site, BTW--we know you certainly don't have to.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-68607376387377625562015-01-10T18:47:32.457-08:002015-01-10T18:47:32.457-08:00Wonder if Mark's comments are a sign the stock...Wonder if Mark's comments are a sign the stock markets have topped out now that the Fed only has Jawbone talk left and can't print money any more to boost stock markets?<br /><br />Like Dan says the equity markets are looking wobbly now.<br /><br />Mark what do you figure as you seem to be always bullish?MarketBullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16041696440215902307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-76899394134337335912015-01-10T15:47:14.660-08:002015-01-10T15:47:14.660-08:00Its a good thing, if you think the Fed talking hea...Its a good thing, if you think the Fed talking heads blowing more cheap money hot air can keep pushing the markets up.MarketBullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16041696440215902307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-35024355934027703852015-01-10T10:32:36.570-08:002015-01-10T10:32:36.570-08:00I agree with that.
Thanks for keeping this side of...I agree with that.<br />Thanks for keeping this side of the fence.<br />The ability to post ans the open minded civility kept on here has been much appreciated.<br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-27304031524550540342015-01-10T10:04:37.011-08:002015-01-10T10:04:37.011-08:00A person who held some USD would be doing pretty w...A person who held some USD would be doing pretty well right now.<br />But what if most of the cupboards went bare?<br />How long can this continue until some type of revolution takes place down there?<br /><br />The link below is a price chart of gold during this crisis priced in Venezuelan Bolivars shows that gold hasn't been helpful to Venezuelans at all compared to just holding USD.<br /><br />http://www.bullion-rates.com/gold/VEF/Year-1-chart.htm<br /><br />If you extrapolate the Venezuelan experience against a similar situation in the US taking place (which I don't see happening unless some terrible natural event or foolish war were to occur) would the value/price of gold be of any help at that point in time?<br />It needs to be considered and I'm not insistant it wouldn't be helpful. <br />But how much?<br />~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~<br /><br />~Venezuelans Throng Grocery Stores Under Military Protection~<br /><br />By Andrew Rosati and Noris Soto<br />January 09, 2015 4:08 PM EST<br /><br />Shoppers thronged grocery stores across Caracas today as deepening shortages led the government to put Venezuela’s food distribution under military protection.<br /><br />Long lines, some stretching for blocks, formed outside grocery stores in the South American country’s capital as residents search for scarce basic items such as detergent and chicken.<br /><br />“I’ve visited six stores already today looking for detergent -- I can’t find it anywhere,” said Lisbeth Elsa, a 27-year-old janitor, waiting in line outside a supermarket in eastern Caracas. “We’re wearing our dirty clothes again because we can’t find it. At this point I’ll buy whatever I can find.”<br /><br />A dearth of foreign currency exacerbated by collapsing oil prices has led to shortages of imports from toilet paper to car batteries, and helped push annual inflation to 64 percent in November. The lines will persist as long as price controls remain in place, Luis Vicente Leon, director of Caracas-based polling firm Datanalisis, said today in a telephone interview.<br /><br />Government officials met with representatives from supermarket chains today to guarantee supplies, state news agency AVN reported. Interior Minister Carmen Melendez said yesterday that security forces would be sent to food stores and distribution centers to protect shoppers.<br /><br />“Don’t fall into desperation -- we have the capacity and products for everyone, with calmness and patience. The stores are full,” she said on state television.<br /><br />President Nicolas Maduro last week vowed to implement an economic “counter-offensive” to steer the country out of recession, including an overhaul of the foreign exchange system. He has yet to provide details. While the main government-controlled exchange sets a rate of 6.3 bolivars per U.S. dollar, the black market rate is as much as 187 per dollar...(cont.)<br />http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-09/venezuelans-throng-grocery-stores-on-military-protection-order.htmlDarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-21493815683575939462015-01-10T09:54:37.037-08:002015-01-10T09:54:37.037-08:00DPH;
Martin is one of the few guys out there who h...DPH;<br />Martin is one of the few guys out there who have also correctly taken the gold hucksters to task. As said many times here - they have financially destroyed their victims with their incessant idiocy and shameful failed predictions.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-86155406627003636182015-01-10T09:53:17.699-08:002015-01-10T09:53:17.699-08:00Mark;
Great to hear from you again! Come on over...Mark;<br /><br />Great to hear from you again! Come on over to the new site. We need some fun posts like this!<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-90386255200705714862015-01-10T08:22:20.389-08:002015-01-10T08:22:20.389-08:00Almost sounds like Martin Armstrong has been readi...Almost sounds like Martin Armstrong has been reading TD's blog regarding "the promoters".<br />~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~<br />Gold v Dollar<br /><br />http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/10/gold-v-dollar/DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-81208065659532269852015-01-10T07:33:38.891-08:002015-01-10T07:33:38.891-08:00Explain to us again how markets going higher is a ...Explain to us again how markets going higher is a bad thing. I'm just a simple trader, and thought growing my net worth was the point of all this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-91447414022689460712015-01-10T03:08:30.872-08:002015-01-10T03:08:30.872-08:00I tried the short at 1220, so for now I'm shor...I tried the short at 1220, so for now I'm short, but it may be too early. I'm looking for an answer mainly on the weekly time scale.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85277657028257156452015-01-09T22:01:32.392-08:002015-01-09T22:01:32.392-08:00Upon further reflection, the tone of that post cam...Upon further reflection, the tone of that post came out all wrong and not as originally intended at all, so I deleted it.<br /><br />The short version is simply that zman is a lone voice of reason over there at TFMR, and of course vilified for it.<br /><br />There is a saying in investing that it's ok to be wrong, everybody does it, but it's not ok to stay wrong. zman is an example of a guy that decided not to stay wrong. <br /><br />There was a time when the narrative at those sorts of blogs seemed to sort of fit the world we were seeing, maybe could explain some things. They just don't anymore. Their "stopped clock" moment has come and gone.Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-76094743728891371302015-01-09T20:31:27.437-08:002015-01-09T20:31:27.437-08:00Well, here we are going into 2015 with a bang.
An...Well, here we are going into 2015 with a bang.<br /><br />And still witnessing the greatest economic miracle ever seen, whereby trillions were printed out of thin air, and consumers enjoyed an orgy of consumer spending and home renovation like no other time. All you have to do is look at the eye-popping performance of shopping mall REITs like SPG and home renovation plays like SHW or MHK.<br /><br />All the doomers and preppers who hung on the coat tails of General Jim have seen their retirement accounts summarily executed, as evidenced by the recent price action of TRX.<br /><br />And anyone who dared to short the mighty U.S. Dollar got caught on the wrong side of one of the greatest currency moves in this decade.<br />And the poor Peak Oil guys, what happened to that? Here we are sitting on the greatest glut of energy products in world history and have just witnessed the 2nd steepest, fastest, collapse in energy prices ever seen. All those guys who rushed out and bought electric cars and Prius vehicles must feel incredibly stupid.<br /><br />And what the heck happened to that site King World News? Now it looks like either TMZ.com or Daily Mirror, complete with male enhancement ads, supermodel babes promising astonishing weight loss claims, and all sorts of other seedy ads. And of course, they continue to push the “Endgame” and “Terrifying Collapse” predictions which have become the laughing stock of newsletters.<br /><br />We all need to congratulate Trader Dan for picking the exact top in energy prices, I saved myself huge by selling all my XLE and UGA but if I had simply shorted everything and held those bearish positions I’d be a millionaire by now, LOL….<br /><br />I think 2015 will be the year the many commodity funds get liquidated and close, and those clinging to the doomer cults will simply walk away from their sordid investments and never watch a quote screen ever again.<br />Meanwhile all those who had unlimited faith in the Fed, the U.S. consumer, and the mighty, mightly U.S. Dollar are now in a position to retire comfortably.<br /><br />Don’t fight the Fed, and Stay in the System.<br />Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-63688806501810983772015-01-09T15:28:08.880-08:002015-01-09T15:28:08.880-08:00Hubert, are you still short gold?Hubert, are you still short gold?dflyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10617196875708889118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56046905186828782042015-01-09T10:36:27.680-08:002015-01-09T10:36:27.680-08:00As always, thanks for sharing Hubert!As always, thanks for sharing Hubert!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15179573368495067766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-44482791958254647332015-01-09T09:07:40.666-08:002015-01-09T09:07:40.666-08:00"their""their"DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82688736516196858592015-01-09T05:58:35.346-08:002015-01-09T05:58:35.346-08:00Thanks, J. Interesting.Thanks, J. Interesting.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41931501651651610602015-01-09T05:56:55.306-08:002015-01-09T05:56:55.306-08:00Eur Usd just reached my target of 17.60 this week ...Eur Usd just reached my target of 17.60 this week and I sold 50% of my short position at that level.<br />I also have a close stop loss to buy stop the remaining 50%, as the ema15 is a bit far from prices on the daily time unit. ma20 as well.<br />There is a time when I should think about making a profit, and this seemed to be the proper area.<br />The red support is defined by the symetrical projection of the previous downards channel. It may be enough to start a bounce, as there is also a major support area in this 1.1640-1.8 landscape, which corresponds to the low of 2005 and some other historical low near 1.18.<br />So...not the wrong place to cash out, especially as the market may be vulnerable to some quick short covering at this moment.<br /><br />Should 1.1650 be broken, as mentioned before, I wouldn't be surprised to see Eur Usd at 1:1 sometime this year.<br /><br />http://i60.tinypic.com/2akhd05.jpgAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-33467418158352221572015-01-08T20:07:01.341-08:002015-01-08T20:07:01.341-08:00So much for all that nonsense about the London vau...So much for all that nonsense about the London vaults being empty.<br />Ask yourself...would they dare do this if they're vaults were almost empty?<br />~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~<br /><br />~LME MULLING LAUNCH OF GOLD AND SILVER FUTURES CONTRACTS~<br /><br />Jan 8, 2015 - 9:26 AM GMT<br />by Ian Walker<br /><br />The London Metal Exchange is mulling the launch of monthly gold and silver futures contracts, industry sources told FastMarkets.<br /><br />The dollar-denominated gold contracts will be physically settled – probably against the LBMA good delivery list, which sets and regulates the acceptable requirements for large gold and silver bars. <br /><br />The LBMA publishes a list of “acceptable refiners” whose large bars weigh around 400 ounces (12.5kg).<br /><br />The exchange is also said to be mulling a mini contract alongside the primary gold facility as well as a silver contract – also alongside a mini contract – with a view to introducing similar products for platinium and palladium in the future, sources added. <br /><br />The LME, which declined to comment, has had six silver contracts in its history, the latest in the 1990s and none of them successful.<br /><br />But this would be the exchange’s first solo foray into gold futures trading – it was part of a joint venture with gold industry participants in the London Gold Futures Market (LGFM) in 1982 but the lack of domestic and speculative investors caused the market to close within three years.<br /><br />In this instance, however, the contracts are likely to be in US dollars and will be monthly futures contracts...(cont.)<br />http://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/newsbreak-lme-mulling-launch-gold-and-silver-futures-contracts-sources-87104/#sthash.WBZhFv9z.6ZG3CXuQ.dpufDarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-24374847332971687592015-01-08T16:22:04.443-08:002015-01-08T16:22:04.443-08:00So true Peter, its at the point of embarrassing wa...So true Peter, its at the point of embarrassing watching these Fed guys come out of the woodwork to save the stock markets every time they start falling.<br /><br />It was the same with Bullard in Oct. saving the markets as they were crashing down, then Yellen in December saved the markets from crashing down, and now Evans with his comments.<br /><br />Their mandate looks to be keeping the stock markets near record highs.MarketBullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16041696440215902307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-35838087715309332552015-01-08T15:18:00.088-08:002015-01-08T15:18:00.088-08:00It seems like people have figured it out and final...It seems like people have figured it out and finally got tired of it all.<br />Armstrongs "Fools" post stated it perfectly.<br />You can't keep blaming faceless evil entities for the lack of overall global investor interest in gold or silver this point and still try to convince others that the metals are in reality undervalued no matter what the market has established.<br />It's almost as nonsensical as the GLD inventory assertions.<br />On one hand the GLD phyz inventory existence is being disputed as phony or wildly inaccurate and it's relevance questioned by those who believe there is no gold.<br />But on the other hand (or side of their mouth) their insinuating that the fake GLD inventory (that supposedly doesn't exist) is being withdrawn and shipped to China and the gold is incredibly somehow Fed gold that the US will never get back.<br />So which is it? The non-existent GLD inventory is an irrelevant barometer that proves nothing OR it's an indicator that it's real gold (Fed/JPM gold!) that's being shipped to Asia because (in case you didn't hear) the vaults of London or Fort Knox are empty.<br /><br />How can someone continue to assert something they selectively choose to believe or not believe and present it as being factual or (ir)relevant in order to prove they're right no matter what? <br />I think most people at this point have allowed themselves to see through it all.<br />As far as the Zman situation over there it's become obvious that no one can rationally or maturely respond back to him without resorting to juvenile or angry name calling. Their pure trollish or drunken responses that offer nothing fresh or substansive to the conversation.<br />Some of those folks are lifers and they're preparing for "the end" even if it takes their entire lifetime (or their childrens) to prove they're right about the collapse of fill-in-the-blank.<br /><br />Good luck with that outlook and the consequences of it if "the end" doesn't happen as planned or even hoped for.DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-50634619202080523862015-01-08T13:38:11.683-08:002015-01-08T13:38:11.683-08:00Hey folks, remember it's NFP Friday inside a c...Hey folks, remember it's NFP Friday inside a corrective b-wave... so potentially more volatility (opportunity?) for the metals.<br /><br />ADP beat forecast. Anyone know whether NFP will? Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-64485180361421716072015-01-08T13:36:39.707-08:002015-01-08T13:36:39.707-08:00Where did that $14M come from?
Is that cash, or j...Where did that $14M come from?<br /><br />Is that cash, or just leftover 290k oz of silver (mis)valued at $48, lolJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-8025739137313676232015-01-08T13:00:12.462-08:002015-01-08T13:00:12.462-08:00Gold indeed is b-wave... b-waves are notoriously c...Gold indeed is b-wave... b-waves are notoriously choppy and overlapping in price. That's what we've seen since yesterday. <br /><br />So think it's not a good couple days for me to try trade this (short-term). <br /><br />I took partial profits earlier today and raised my stop to 11.89 for some remainder which will run "on the house" for intermediate term.<br /><br />Expecting more chop up & down, then later a test of 1230 and break it to 1250-60+ .... then will be looking for short. <br /><br />Good luck all.<br />Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.com