tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post7456859738422673138..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: FOMC - More uncertaintyTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-49058260611905809482013-08-24T00:18:32.978-07:002013-08-24T00:18:32.978-07:00it's not annoying. Gold is already going up qu...it's not annoying. Gold is already going up quite rapidly. Wishing a vertical rally is the best way to see it collapse. Much better that way, with small periods of consolidation while prices globally go up...<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-91286986728078407602013-08-23T13:59:27.915-07:002013-08-23T13:59:27.915-07:00The DXY is indeed outdated. Try the FXCM Dollar i...The DXY is indeed outdated. Try the FXCM Dollar index instead, I think it is much more representative of the Dollar's standing (contains many more currencies in the basket, reflecting today's world reality).<br /><br />By the way, on the EW charts, I've had the dollar index strong and it still is notwithstanding today's setback. <br />Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-15626062163309513582013-08-23T10:02:58.479-07:002013-08-23T10:02:58.479-07:00its so frustrating that the 1400 level cannot be p...its so frustrating that the 1400 level cannot be penetrated yet but you can see the higher highs testing it...its just the sellers at 1400 are strong and on the last test they made a lower low , bit annoying, i hope later today we can breach it..im just wondering how the chinese will react to this come monday...housing is the main engine and the fed is the main player in the us economy so i think todays news should provide the catalyst to breach 1400...anyhow im very much content with this move...high weekly close...and with all the other bullish gold news (i dont know any bearish gold news really)..i expect a nice future for gold bulls......<br /><br />p.s....one questions...;what is the significance of a gap higher/lower during trading...i get it before the trading day starts but is it of any relevance during the day?precious woodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13762260606374686793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-62012131545551216502013-08-23T08:57:17.774-07:002013-08-23T08:57:17.774-07:00White Wolf; I think u r right; even energies look ...White Wolf; I think u r right; even energies look to break out upside; maybe the 60 year Gann Cycle Guys r right; Dan, notice the early muted response in FX? Tells u all the garbage fiats r no good; I always hated the stupid $ Index contract --- it should go the way of potatoes, iced broilers, turkeys, onions, propane, bellies,etc, etc, steve in sparks Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-51076323336055494632013-08-23T08:29:31.816-07:002013-08-23T08:29:31.816-07:00hehe :) see you around 1500 $? :) For once that it...hehe :) see you around 1500 $? :) For once that it's the bears who are frustrated...cheers!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71799057465446312012013-08-23T07:50:44.970-07:002013-08-23T07:50:44.970-07:00Dan,
It appears from a chart perspective that th...Dan, <br /><br />It appears from a chart perspective that the HUI is very close to a bust back to 335. Spot driving 10 higher, 50 a distant memory and not a lot of headwinds above the 260 area. Looks like Blue Sky, nothing but Blue sky above. Your thoughts.White Wolfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13965194184809848345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-27687050221687498042013-08-23T07:50:42.474-07:002013-08-23T07:50:42.474-07:00hey J August; Did you get up on the wrong side of ...hey J August; Did you get up on the wrong side of the bed? I simply asked you a question and you defensively claim that the EW technique is being disparaged? steve in sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-23053531552153827542013-08-23T07:28:14.842-07:002013-08-23T07:28:14.842-07:00Excellent counterpoints.Excellent counterpoints.Gilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16780909602588070681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-771270641744348912013-08-23T07:12:09.091-07:002013-08-23T07:12:09.091-07:00spiking up!! who's feeling some excitement? I ...spiking up!! who's feeling some excitement? I know Hubert Du Haut will be one of them :-) Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10366683894545649989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-18099237925993305572013-08-23T02:22:54.224-07:002013-08-23T02:22:54.224-07:00"I will let you know if there are any big cha..."I will let you know if there are any big changes in COMEX inventory. But as I said, if a problem occurs it will not show up here first, since the COMEX has become largely a paper market."<br /><br />Jesse's Cafe Americain<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-31568544487547722002013-08-23T00:42:29.906-07:002013-08-23T00:42:29.906-07:00Yes, I know some young pro's who swear by EW ...Yes, I know some young pro's who swear by EW and do consistently well in trading. Quit their day jobs and living the dream life. <br /><br />Do not disparage techniques because of lousy practitioners. The charts are never wrong, the chart-reader is often wrong!<br /><br />I'm no EW guru, but I am competent and self-supporting. I look at a range of TA and also follow fundies. You know anyone that consistently makes good $$ with just fundies?...Nope! <br />Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-59045243775110529712013-08-22T23:36:09.736-07:002013-08-22T23:36:09.736-07:00One thing I want to emphasize, always speaking Und...One thing I want to emphasize, always speaking Under Dan's control, is that I'm not trying to guess where the market is going.<br />I'm trying to manage my position so that I protect my capital quickly, and give myself a large potential of gains, no matter what the market will decide to do, by identifying potential entry / get out points thanks to supports / résistances on my charts.<br /><br />I think it's less risky that way, because it's not a matter of being right or wrong about the market direction anymore. It's a matter of probabilities / esperance of gain, whatever the market does next.<br /><br />So clearly, I bought at 1345 and that's why now I'm covering a part of this purchase with a stop loss already above that price, yet under the range.<br />I see that there is a resistance at 1380 which coincides with the mlh sup of the fork.<br />I mean, it's not me who tells the market, it's the market who shows me that there is a resistance here, and that's why I can draw this blue fork. As a consequence, I'm out 25% of my position, securing a small profit.<br />Now, no matter what the market will do next, I don't care already!<br />If it goes down, I'll be stopped and try to get back in around 1320.<br />If it keeps going up, hourrah!, and I'll keep the position for more gains.<br />In that way, imho, trading and investing in gold are very, very different activities with very different time horizons.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85436149657798391022013-08-22T23:23:05.325-07:002013-08-22T23:23:05.325-07:00I forgot a bit of my T.A.
Look at this second pitc...I forgot a bit of my T.A.<br />Look at this second pitchfork below.<br />You wanted a resistance capping the recent price action, you found it :)<br />As a result, if we can't get beyond this resistance, it is quite possible that prices will correct down towards 1315 $ area within a few days, meeting the median of the fork and the green axis.<br />So...bullish position must be traded dynamically.<br />Personally, I applied my suggestion of yesterday : sold 25% of my long position at 1380, I keep the rest of it, but with a stop loss for half of it under the current range, and a big buy order at 1315 $.<br /><br />http://s24.postimg.org/p9oagq1qd/gld.jpg<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7450906317642679462013-08-22T22:56:16.456-07:002013-08-22T22:56:16.456-07:00Dear all,
Here is my updated view for gold in dol...Dear all,<br /><br />Here is my updated view for gold in dollars.<br />I like to use simple figures, elements, and decision criteria. Personally I'm not fond of complex TA systems.<br /><br />http://s16.postimg.org/oz6v19x2t/gld.jpg<br /><br />So the pitchfork is here and as a bull, I like it, because it gives me a support going up, which is very comfortable to manage bullish positions with a stop loss.<br /><br />I also drew another channel in green, because :<br />- it obviously joins the two last bottoms of gold, but also :<br />- it is parallel to the ma20<br />- the ma20 has been straight for more than a month now<br /><br />In these kinf of specific configurations, one often sees this green axis as a support zone, should prices drop. <br />As the pitchfork's trend is going quite a lot up, I expect that prices will sooner or later break its mlh inf. When it happens, and if the ma20 is still following the same straight line, I'll probably put a strong buy order in the area of the green axis support, as from my own experience, many times, it generates at least a short-term bounce.<br /><br />Have a nice day :)<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41135293143731211832013-08-22T21:02:45.664-07:002013-08-22T21:02:45.664-07:00Dan, maybe I am way off base, but the way I look a...Dan, maybe I am way off base, but the way I look at charts, the Cable and Euro have to be sold into > this 2 month rally; you know my long standing bearish view on the Yen, and as for the Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, Canuck Buck, Aussie, Viet, Indian currencies, well when they begin denying that they have problems, that is the only confirmation you need, as in India with capital controls now; shucks, even in the better restaurants in Saigon a couple years ago they had plastic sticker prices on the menus, for you know why. So when will the $ bears look around and see things for what they really are? Labor Day is right around the corner and we all know how dramatic short holiday weeks can be and my bias for most mkts is to the downside; that is all; steve in sparks Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85682894110118689422013-08-22T20:45:45.433-07:002013-08-22T20:45:45.433-07:00Excellent pointExcellent pointconcordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04257549822960081454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-23538212887856517782013-08-22T19:01:05.193-07:002013-08-22T19:01:05.193-07:00Hey J August; Have you ever known anyone that made...Hey J August; Have you ever known anyone that made any $ with Elliot? steve in sparks Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37622646934028849142013-08-22T15:24:20.032-07:002013-08-22T15:24:20.032-07:00Santelli: Gobbledygook
gob·ble·dy·gook
ˈgäbəldēˌg...Santelli: Gobbledygook<br /><br />gob·ble·dy·gook<br />ˈgäbəldēˌgo͝ok-ˌgo͞okSubmit<br />nouninformal<br />1.<br />language that is meaningless or is made unintelligible by excessive use of abstruse technical terms; nonsense.<br />synonyms: gibberish, claptrap, nonsense, rubbish, balderdash, blather, garbagedavecydellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16090888216008105749noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88650435057258253382013-08-22T14:52:16.457-07:002013-08-22T14:52:16.457-07:00Elliot wave counts have the A-B-C corrective wave ...Elliot wave counts have the A-B-C corrective wave (in wave 4, or perhaps impulse wave 1 if 1179 was the absolute bottom) ending soon... Then the big major Wave 5 down to new lows (or major 2 which will retrace most of the run up from 1179).<br />Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-89914705427338086082013-08-22T14:45:37.218-07:002013-08-22T14:45:37.218-07:00China and Japan have (wisely) dumped Treasuries fo...China and Japan have (wisely) dumped Treasuries for 3 consecutive months big-time... 3 months makes a trend, likely to continue.<br /><br />But dumping treasuries does NOT necessarily mean the dollar will fall. Not so simple cause-and-effectJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-4579723491223024612013-08-22T12:15:11.769-07:002013-08-22T12:15:11.769-07:00Dan; You are a smarter guy than me; I am adding on...Dan; You are a smarter guy than me; I am adding on another break tomorrow on weak close; as for the claim that a lot of $ bears claim that the Japanese will dump our treasuries, I just laugh; are they going to buy more jgb's if Abe is successful and inflation rises while Yen dumps? I do not think so; swb, in sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-29610008475544589492013-08-22T11:05:15.835-07:002013-08-22T11:05:15.835-07:00Steve - I am leaving the Yen alone for a while as ...Steve - I am leaving the Yen alone for a while as it has been whipsawing me too much of late. I think its long term trend is lower but don't like the wild and unpredictable swings it has been generating. there is a lot of confusion in the forex markets of late and I am plowing different ground until I feel more comfortable in there. Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-43111067625244074092013-08-22T11:03:53.025-07:002013-08-22T11:03:53.025-07:00Steve;
I get those numbers off of my TA Software....Steve;<br /><br />I get those numbers off of my TA Software. I am not sure where you could get it off the web. If you have access the actual closing numbers, I would import that data into Excel and use that to generate a 200 day moving average. Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85568102696747128622013-08-22T10:57:12.973-07:002013-08-22T10:57:12.973-07:00Dan; Nikkei and Yen I believe are just about ready...Dan; Nikkei and Yen I believe are just about ready to break out of 3 month weekly continuation patterns; Bass is bearish both, whereas Rogers and Faber think Nikkei has made generational bottom; think that these are important mkts; steve in sparks Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-79983005609863625002013-08-22T10:47:12.835-07:002013-08-22T10:47:12.835-07:00thank you Dan, but I have forgotten where to refer...thank you Dan, but I have forgotten where to reference it daily? September can be a brutal topping month for metals and grains, so we should take care. Also it is worst month for stocks, followed by Oct. Energies also look tired and topping to me also; thanks, steve in sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.com