tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post6471617267076862795..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: When Theory and Real Life Collide - thoughts on the YenTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-24174435377842507712011-03-21T09:39:13.218-07:002011-03-21T09:39:13.218-07:00Speaking of the real world here, I am just wonderi...Speaking of the real world here, I am just wondering what is entailed by Japan “growing” its economy? In terms of real world stuff, how specifically could Japan do this? Its population is decreasing, it has no more available land area to realistically increase agricultural output. And isn’t Japan already a manufacturing powerhouse on the cutting edge of modern technology? And aren’t energy prices going up, not only because of QE but because we are simply running out of fossil fuels?<br /><br />I’d be careful listening to Peter Schiff, he has some math problems. He says that catching more fish makes them more abundant. Apparently the reason ocean fisheries, one after another, are in collapse around the world, is because we aren’t catching enough fish. The wonderful free market should sort all those problems out though, I guess.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-2980783868856534332011-03-20T21:13:56.369-07:002011-03-20T21:13:56.369-07:00The Japanese authorities are dismayed by the rise ...The Japanese authorities are dismayed by the rise in the Yen now- wait until The Bernank announces QE3!<br /><br />www.silverdoctors.blogspot.comThe Dochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08423785146255548702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-32101681277553835902011-03-20T14:58:15.389-07:002011-03-20T14:58:15.389-07:00Thanks Dan for taking the time to explain your vie...Thanks Dan for taking the time to explain your view on the Japanese Yen and its appreciation. You make some very valid points. <br /><br />Cheers from Buenos Aires,<br /><br />GloriaUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18432281649627677786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-38567759794229570572011-03-20T05:25:29.844-07:002011-03-20T05:25:29.844-07:00Dan,
assuming similar disaster hits West Coast, wi...Dan,<br />assuming similar disaster hits West Coast, with USD being another carry trade currency - shall we expect equally wild appreciation of USD, followed by similar interventions from central banks?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-86357638171676871382011-03-20T04:05:14.351-07:002011-03-20T04:05:14.351-07:00"If you are to come away with only one point ..."If you are to come away with only one point in this discussion, let it be this: THE JAPANESE YEN IS AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL AGAINST THE US DOLLAR IN MORE THAN 35 YEARS. It might be an even longer period; I simply do not have the chart data going back beyond the early 1970's."<br /><br />Dan, I attended a conference back in Nov 2010. One of the many speakers at this event presented a long term USDJPY chart (the converse to your JPYUSD chart but I'm not fussy).<br /><br />One thing I noticed was that in the mid 1950's (around 55-56), the level of this cross was around 360-320 Yen to the Dollar. It was around the 200-300 range in the 60's decade.<br /><br />You are correct in saying the highest level in "more than 35 years". However, it is more like the highest level in "more than 56 years".<br /><br />Long term (and I'm talking half a century or more) the USDJPY chart I saw at this conference, which went back to about 1948, looks like a set of stairs going down into the basement. It's really an undeniable long term trend of Yen strength against the USD during that timeframe.<br /><br />The Yen is at close to all time highs against the USD in more than half a century is a reasonable description to make of this currency cross' trend over the very long term.Jacqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11448436852441692652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-23797785110259444642011-03-20T01:29:01.576-07:002011-03-20T01:29:01.576-07:00Dan, your time and effort in further clarification...Dan, your time and effort in further clarification of this topic is greatly appreciated. I guess your bottom line is that Schiff and Pento are in princple correct that the JPY should apppreciate, but the massive distortions in the market caused by the central banks and hedge funds have already effected the appreciation. Someone at GATA said there are no markets any more, only interventions - they were probably referring to gold and silver but it seems to be applicable to everything these days. What an incredible mess the world has become- just look at the volatiility in the charts. A number of prominent hedge funds have already given up. One can only hope that the other 99% will follow their example.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-54000705368066101722011-03-19T17:53:13.987-07:002011-03-19T17:53:13.987-07:00Thank you for the post Dan. It is a very interesti...Thank you for the post Dan. It is a very interesting way to look at the problem. One question that must be asked however is how effective the manipulation will be in the long run. Previous interventions by the BOJ lasted for shorter and shorter periods of time with each sequential attempt. Maybe this time will be different because of the bigger guns that were brought to bear.Sciscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11404333822267472088noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41889772222770358192011-03-19T17:48:01.813-07:002011-03-19T17:48:01.813-07:00Dan,
Excellent analysis. Very 1st chart should rea...Dan,<br />Excellent analysis. Very 1st chart should really be $/Yen as shown. I always look forward to reading your commentary on Jim Sinclair's site. He along with you are my true mentors and have made me a true believer in Gold. Keep up the good work.<br />Hirentwinkletoes78https://www.blogger.com/profile/09844577288090007531noreply@blogger.com