tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post577809464343774926..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Long Term View of Gold ( Monthly Basis)Trader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger101125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-1834449777505632662014-09-30T06:03:57.434-07:002014-09-30T06:03:57.434-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Paper puppethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07740584680156067394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-4722318278157963912014-09-30T05:19:19.697-07:002014-09-30T05:19:19.697-07:00Puppet...it's pretty obvious you're here t...Puppet...it's pretty obvious you're here to derail and bait people as you've just admitted to it.<br /><br />You can bait some folks but you can't bait a fisherman. };^)<br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-15848242260697721132014-09-30T03:35:18.404-07:002014-09-30T03:35:18.404-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Paper puppethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07740584680156067394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-64550106029933165542014-09-30T01:24:08.009-07:002014-09-30T01:24:08.009-07:00Hubert & Dan - Thank you for your detailed tho...Hubert & Dan - Thank you for your detailed thoughts.<br /><br />Hubert - yes being out of the market is a position, but you have to look at "cash" on its fundamentals too. Since I do not live in a US$ domain (GBP) I am perhaps more sensitive to how much of a "store of value" a currency is. At the moment the US$ is appreciating, and the GBP is going down relative to it. Maybe I should (for a while at least) move funds into US$? lol Ironically, G&S have roughly a -0.5 correlation with US$ (if the $ goes up 10% then G&S go down by 5% in $). If my own currency is down 10% relative to the $ up 10% then my G&S goes up by 5% in my currency! Not all the world is looking at G&S movements in quite the same way as the US.<br /><br />Dan - I am not a trader. Whilst I can read certain aspects of charts I don't have the skills/traits needed to make money that way. Furthermore I agree with your observation that the environment of the last few years (whether due to low interest rates or machine trading) is perhaps one of the most hostile environment in history for anyone who is a fundamentalist become trader.<br /><br />I agree with you about energy - something we cannot do without! Furthermore, it seems likely that the oil price declines will create some value somewhere sooner or later so I probably need to investigate that further. In that respect I was actually looking at Gazprom the other day, but the current Ruble weakness makes me wary of it for now!<br /><br />It also sounds like I should investigate the emini futures! The downside of that is that if you are using them as a hedge then you probably need something to hedge against and I have virtually no equities at the moment - and am NOT going near them at these levels! LOL<br /><br />Anyway, thx again for your thoughts.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13159998852459367827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88557899666967173522014-09-29T23:31:53.790-07:002014-09-29T23:31:53.790-07:00Cant speak for the whole sector but Sinclairs TRX ...Cant speak for the whole sector but Sinclairs TRX is over valued by two dollar considering its got no economic resources does not produce management lies about its achievements and prospects and will run out of money in months..Jasperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03831704112998990130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-57636153363627536142014-09-29T22:54:01.095-07:002014-09-29T22:54:01.095-07:00Thank you for your words and care....Thank you for your words and care....Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16476786902221122488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-66016526562269933322014-09-29T22:49:46.187-07:002014-09-29T22:49:46.187-07:00Paper puppet, what is your formula to estimate the...Paper puppet, what is your formula to estimate the right valuation of gold and silver today?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52098701788239793472014-09-29T15:56:48.388-07:002014-09-29T15:56:48.388-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Paper puppethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07740584680156067394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-18123756093232370042014-09-29T15:05:45.600-07:002014-09-29T15:05:45.600-07:00So PM to you is overvalued today??
So PM to you is overvalued today??<br />Paper puppethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07740584680156067394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52949570868863903012014-09-29T14:49:40.303-07:002014-09-29T14:49:40.303-07:00Mr. Puppet;
I noted the price action since 2011 b...Mr. Puppet;<br /><br />I noted the price action since 2011 because you gold cult members always seem to somehow overlook the 80% collapse in the junior miners while trumpeting how well they are doing this year. It is an absurd comparison.<br /><br />But for the record I have no idea why you keep singing the praises of the junior miners as if they are somehow beating the broader market.<br /><br />The S&P 500 is up over 7% from the beginning of this year. The GDXJ is up about 11% since the start of the year. But why in the world are you choosing that as a measure of success in the shares? How many people do you personally know who were sitting OUT OF THE GOLD SHARES completely and in cash at the beginning of the year and then bought the GDXJ?<br /><br />I personally know of none. What I do know is that a whole lot of people ( people from whom I have received emails) bought gold shares back in 2011, more in 2012, more in 2013, etc) and never once sold any of them. They are seriously underwater and will probably never recover from those losses in their lifetimes unless there are quite young and have long years ahead of them.<br /><br />Even if you want to go back to late 2009, the inception of the GDXJ index, it traded at 94.74 at the close in November. It closed at 34.65 today. That is five years later and it has LOST 60 points or 63% of its value over that time frame.<br /><br />Who the hell cares that it managed to put on a lousy 3 points up to this point of the current year? Answer - only a fanatic and a member of the gold cult who refuses to see how abysmal the performance of this sector has been the last 5 years. Compare that to the S&P 500 and then tell me how much you love the junior miners.<br /><br />Get a grip on reality and take off the rose-colored glasses. There have been and remain opportunities in other sectors/asset classes that can be found by those willing to do their homework.<br /><br /><br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-78273629671796841072014-09-29T14:34:20.073-07:002014-09-29T14:34:20.073-07:00Right we all bought miners only in 2011 and held o...Right we all bought miners only in 2011 and held on Til now. Ok <br /><br />I'm asking a question to somebody that supposedly know something about markets <br />Yet cant come up with an answer why GDXJ is still outperforming stocks YTD. <br /><br />Why is that??Paper puppethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07740584680156067394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41311995343157806402014-09-29T13:27:12.782-07:002014-09-29T13:27:12.782-07:00Mark H.
Thanks for a set of very sound and reason...Mark H.<br /><br />Thanks for a set of very sound and reasoned comments.<br />It is a real pleasure to read something which makes a good case for buying the precious metals without resorting to insults and abuse! :o)<br /><br />I understand your thinking as I am also a fundamentalist at heart. I do not like to trade any market that I feel I do not have a decent grasp on the fundamentals behind why it is doing what it is doing. That is one of the reasons why I have come to loathe computerized buying and selling because those damned machines and those who follow them are mindless in my view.<br /> Back when I cut my teeth trading, we were all fundamentalists who used TA to supplement that.<br /><br />Nowadays, most of the hedge fund types could care less about fundamentals. All they are interested in is price momentum.<br /><br />Trading therefore has to take into account the new era in the markets but I do think investors can still be good students of the fundamentals and come out ahead IN the LONG RUN.<br /><br />In the current environment, big investors are chasing YIELD, wherever and whenever they can find it. That means that they will essentially buy anything moving higher. In a sense then any investor has to take their actions into consideration when buying into a particular asset class. If they are absent from that class, price could linger going no where for a long time. If they are involved in that asset class, try keeping up with them because the way they blindly buy, waiting for pull backs may also be a long time in coming!<br /><br />When it comes to my investments therefore, I like to think long term, macro sort of stuff and then find companies which are well positioned to take advantage of what I see as a longer term trend. Once you settle on that, you can then take a position and add to it on price setbacks. You monitor the price chart and if a support level on a LONG TERM or on an intermediate term chart is taken out, you then evaluate whether or not you want to stay with that company or get out and look for another candidate. <br />I personally do not like Warren Buffett because he hangs out with Obama which I cannot understand but he is a guy that looks for value in asset classes where he sees long term growth opportunity or potential.<br /><br />One thing that one can do is to actually HEDGE their stock portfolio by using the emini futures or the emini nasdaq or the Russell 2000. You have a position and then if it looks as if the market is going to enter a bear market, you can take a short position in the futures markets and use that as a hedge to keep your losses to a minimum in the portfolio. It is not perfect but it is why the emini futures came into being in the first place - it was meant to be a tool for investors seeking portfolio protection.<br /><br />Long term I still like energy - it is hard to see the world needing less of the stuff as we move forward although you have to stay up on this sector because of the potential for changes in the supply side of the equation due to advancements in technology.<br /><br />On the tech front, there are a lot of potential winners in there as well. <br /><br />Use the various ETF's out there as there is practically one for any sector you can think of. That will give you some broad exposure if you are not an individual stock picker. Also, you can use the futures to hedge those in the event of a downturn in the market.<br /><br />Holding gold is also a good idea but just remember, a little goes a long way. Don't get too crazy about the stuff and tie up so much capital in it that you have nothing left over for growth stocks.<br /><br />We'll let the other guys who post here chime in because they always have some great ideas.<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-45468974100263441572014-09-29T13:12:19.182-07:002014-09-29T13:12:19.182-07:00- being out of the markets is also a trading posit...- being out of the markets is also a trading position.<br />- SP500 is showing a clear upwards channel on the 2 week timeframe. Why not buy when it comes close to the support, with a close stop loss nearby? (though it's getting dangerous as long as the top of the other slower channel is not broken, now near 2030, as we are forming a rising wedge)<br />- if your choice is really G&S, at least wait for them to stop falling. Are a few days going to change something? You would buy G&S a bit higher than a short term bottom, but at least you'd have a chance to see a bottom, and put a stop loss close to your buying price. How do you define the bottom for G&S, even short term, right now? Prices keep falling by the day. Silver is once more sub 17.50 today. Why are so many people so impatient to get back into the market if it only means losing their money? Out of the market is also a trading position.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-23433184137329193872014-09-29T12:50:54.203-07:002014-09-29T12:50:54.203-07:00He's been right all the way down.He's been right all the way down. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00979740033360883282noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-68783721561923969012014-09-29T12:18:44.142-07:002014-09-29T12:18:44.142-07:00Dan. First let me thank you for a detailed and re...Dan. First let me thank you for a detailed and reasoned assessment (as always). If you don't recall I am mildly bullish on Gold long term but I stop by here periodically to get a healthy balance to the excessive optimism of the gold bull sites that I also read (for entertainment!)<br /><br />I do not fundamentally disagree with anything you say, and on balance I would put you in with a handful of folks I read who are "righter than most".<br /><br />Here's my problem though. I am long since out of equities (from Dec '13) and have capital to invest. Ben Graham is a role model for me and I'm a fundamentalist - can dig into company accounts and tend to have a feel for valuation. But what's an "investor" to do in the current market? It's all so friggin distorted.<br /><br />I do not like bonds - IMO the HY end of this market is an accident waiting to happen. You can bid bonds up chasing yield all you like but ultimately there is a reason they should be HY and the inevitable defaults won't go away - they will happen in time. (Junk corporates, auto loans, student debt and some real estate are all ticking bombs).<br /><br />I do not like equities - I cannot find value in any major Western market. Valuations are excessive relative both to artificially inflated cashflows and to asset values.<br /><br />Property valuations vary by market but broadly is richly valued relative to actual incomes (which are flat to down).<br /><br />Exchange rates are skewed by distorted interest rates. Central Bank injections basically mean we have a musical chairs race ofe devaluation. Holding almost any currency long term at the moment is effectively a loss.<br /><br />So what's a guy to do? Almost every liquid investment class is currently overpriced (or has excessive risk). In that environment precious metals (mainly gold and possibly silver) strike me as one of the few things you can presently buy which aren't wildly overpriced. (You may have to wait a long time to realise gains, but buying any commodity at close to its cost of production, which is arguably where we are with G&S, is rarely a stupid move).<br /><br />In that context I cannot disagree with anything you say, but I simply cannot see any alternatives here to buying Gold (and Silver). I have bought the dips of the last 6 months, and I have been finalizing my buys in the last few days. I have been buying in GBP and my average position is a little underwater (3%-4%). This G&S market is HORRIBLY unloved and you make a very good case for why it deserves to be. I fear I will be burned over the coming months, but WHAT'S A FUNDAMENTALIST TO DO? I simply cannot see any alternatives (and would appreciate any bright ideas from the brains trust here! LOL).<br /><br />ARRRGGGHHHH!!!!!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13159998852459367827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-19315730519536923222014-09-29T09:18:55.782-07:002014-09-29T09:18:55.782-07:00GOTS!
They exchanged them for actual certficates ...GOTS!<br /><br />They exchanged them for actual certficates in many cases or were convinced the end of the world was near, so they sold none of them.<br /><br /><br />What a fraud that Jimmy Sinclair!<br /><br />And posting sheeppictures in june 2013 at the bottom I kid you not!<br /><br />Sickest joke if a human being i ever came across, that Jim Sinclier.Jasperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03831704112998990130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-24864959306009102162014-09-29T08:40:34.325-07:002014-09-29T08:40:34.325-07:00NDX wowo the power of the 50-DMA touch! . INDU al...NDX wowo the power of the 50-DMA touch! . INDU also had low o day about 50-day.<br /><br />wowo anybody want to trade livestock?<br />http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fbF1kjldhqs/UaV7BKBrlJI/AAAAAAAAKEs/LyeqZ_1xhOU/s400/Not-Me.jpg<br /><br />The Fed will end its third QE program in October 2014, bringing us to the new<br />era of policy normalization. The Fed’s 4.5 billion dollar balance sheet will start contracting. Although the timing remains uncertain, the first Fed hike is estimated by the second half of 2015. From a technical perspective, the Fed ormalization could stimulate normalization in gold markets and possibly shift the gold levels<br />toward $680-1000 (2008-2009 trading band) should the critical $1,150-80<br />support breaks. This said, markets are not pricing in the coming ECB expansion yet. Should the ECB liquidity partially counter-balance the Fed tightening, the normalization in gold markets will certainly be delayed.<br /><br />cheerio pip pip!77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05390025091154704970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82212536243795035412014-09-29T08:20:10.037-07:002014-09-29T08:20:10.037-07:00You people criticizing T.A are bringing your assum...You people criticizing T.A are bringing your assumptions without any solid example or proof, like a drunk guy talking his lot to a bartender.<br />Your only argumentation is : "I".<br />I am a great trader, I made a fortune lately, I am a veteran of the market, I know better than you guys,...<br /><br />Good luck and please leave this blog alone.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-40875887070670400402014-09-29T08:16:47.925-07:002014-09-29T08:16:47.925-07:00So,
- Fibonacci ratios are totally useless.
- T.A...So, <br />- Fibonacci ratios are totally useless.<br />- T.A is totally useless because it is useless to watch the past to forecast the future.<br /><br />Here is a chart of EUR USD.<br />Fibonacci retracements of the fall from 1.50 to 1.20 are on the chart.<br />I don't know about you, but they helped me get out / get in on the way up.<br />Of course, any bounces, up or down, indicated in the red circles right on the fibonacci levels are purely coincidental, because, you know, fibonacci retracements are useless.<br />what can I do except laugh?<br /><br />http://i62.tinypic.com/e7hxdd.jpgAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-43917000625843291132014-09-29T07:39:23.908-07:002014-09-29T07:39:23.908-07:00GoPro IPO now up from $28 to a record high of $85 ...GoPro IPO now up from $28 to a record high of $85 today<br /><br />Investors are still interested in growth and innovation during a booming economy.<br /><br />Nobody is interested in the "gloom and doom" theory anymore.<br /><br />Notice how today's dip in stocks was bought with the utmost urgency, as so many are still sitting on the sidelines that missed the party.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-77420708460778438932014-09-29T07:25:44.893-07:002014-09-29T07:25:44.893-07:00Excellent write-up Dan. Look out g&s...jobs re...Excellent write-up Dan. Look out g&s...jobs report on Friday...perhaps a classic smash is in order...Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11549367655220089014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-14820245649810924572014-09-29T07:10:55.814-07:002014-09-29T07:10:55.814-07:00A new sales record for August waterproof bib sales...A new sales record for August waterproof bib sales to my largest account, the donkeys at KWN. The funny thing is that they don't even recognize the fact that they are looking to lose. Laughter is the best medicine for sure.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-14777802525395972652014-09-29T07:06:32.913-07:002014-09-29T07:06:32.913-07:00Steve;
I am sincerely and genuinely very saddened...Steve;<br /><br />I am sincerely and genuinely very saddened to hear about your losses. It is so very easy to be duped by sensationalism and fear as it does sell. <br /><br />The thing about it is that I also once believed that we were going to see the US Dollar negatively impacted by round after round of QE. However, once the charts broke down, with the entirety of the commodity complex sinking lower and the US Dollar moving higher, we had to respond to what those charts were saying, namely,that the thinking of the market in that regard had changed and thus money flows were going to change as well.<br /><br />That is why I am trying to do over here - help people learn how to read the markets and thus protect themselves from the hucksters and frauds out there and hopefully make some decisions that will at least prevent them from getting hurt by them.<br /><br />Best wishes to you...Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-10804691601884368042014-09-29T07:01:16.834-07:002014-09-29T07:01:16.834-07:00Hubert:
Touche! Ouch - that is going to leave a m...Hubert:<br /><br />Touche! Ouch - that is going to leave a mark!Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-63204608577005035532014-09-29T06:58:08.955-07:002014-09-29T06:58:08.955-07:00Unfortunately SP500 still in a bull territory. It ...Unfortunately SP500 still in a bull territory. It could make a all time high this week. So no way for Gold being up except for a small bounce aheadAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13633775531662488818noreply@blogger.com