tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post5472278629172357297..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Commitments of Traders Report Trader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-50455802977733317622014-05-03T10:41:06.823-07:002014-05-03T10:41:06.823-07:001350 on my chart is the major downtrend started in...1350 on my chart is the major downtrend started in October 2012. The inflation is in emerging economies not the west - gold buying volume is what I am talking about, global demand.<br /><br />The channel top at around 1420 and low at 1180 is visible, but the price is getting sticky around the 200ma and 200wma and because of that I add a more weight to the uptrend since December, I would say the true channel low is $1280, more around the level producers (some) can actually make a tiny profit. $1180 to me is the extreme. If gold can pop $1350 I think the 200 ma becomes more supportive. <br /><br />CheersAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07067735191127041901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-70108130348826984122014-05-02T21:06:04.126-07:002014-05-02T21:06:04.126-07:00Angelo - gold is not in an uptrend. It is range bo...Angelo - gold is not in an uptrend. It is range bound as the chart illustrates. <br /><br /><br />If you want to call it an uptrend, feel free to do so.<br /><br />The problem in Europe is not inflation. It is deflation. Their own central bankers are saying this right now. that is why they are talking up the possibility of starting their own version of QE. Why do you think that they are trying to talk down the Euro?<br /><br />As for the inflation you are talking about, I do not see it in the commodity futures market. The GSCI weekly chart shows a pattern of lower highs going all the way back three years to 2011. <br /><br />It does show a bottom formed near 600 but nothing doing on the upside yet.<br /><br />Ukraine is supporting the gold market. Take that away and gold is facing some strong headwinds. So far it is holding $1280 but it dodged a bullet today when those helicopters came down.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-65595116029579120512014-05-02T20:34:53.647-07:002014-05-02T20:34:53.647-07:00Angelo, not enough volume today to make a believer...Angelo, not enough volume today to make a believer out of me. Just a Friday short covering escapade, and maybe I am wrong, but 1350 is meaningless on my charts. sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-62250425853357920082014-05-02T16:23:59.480-07:002014-05-02T16:23:59.480-07:00Trader Dan, your assertion that the gold buying th...Trader Dan, your assertion that the gold buying that is pulling gold back over it's 200 dma is related to the Ukraine is simply wrong, the uptrend was in place well before the Ukraine. Momentum low came in early December, it's been on an upward trend ever since. This is demand reaching into the market, and it will only increase as currency debasement worldwide occurs. You might be being too U.S centric with regard to your gold analysis, inflation in the world is rampant, the U.S is also exporting it, this has an impact on the gold market. In countries where the currency is being debased they will see gold going up in price and want to buy, it's all very logical. Inflation might be under control here for now, but in many places around the globe it's destroying wealth, gold is a haven. Turmoil world wide will only increase as the currency wars continue, these are very high leverage, and risky times, far more complex and opaque than it ought to be and thus is set-up to failures large and small. Gold is protection and it is entering the next phase shortly. If gold pierces above $1350 and holds for even a few days it's game over for guaranteed profits on the short side, shorts will have to work and sweat a lot harder. Though as you say if it breaks below 1270-1275 than we're into 1180 again, but I really think the momentum, with the side benefit of the Ukraine, and gold is firmly moving back into its up trend. This is not hyperbole, look at the chart, look at the demand, its clear. <br /><br />CheersAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07067735191127041901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9975713883915315692014-05-02T16:02:42.435-07:002014-05-02T16:02:42.435-07:00Just a newswatchers opinion, Ukraine is in play an...Just a newswatchers opinion, Ukraine is in play and will drive gold until resolved(not necessarily a great deal higher but enough to flummox the shorts). I think considering elections are May 25 and it is unimaginable how this could be accomplished peacefully. Europe and the world will be extra sensitive.Concordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05015491360293136821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-26664316623480628072014-05-02T15:09:23.669-07:002014-05-02T15:09:23.669-07:00"Missed it by that much!"
Gold faded la..."Missed it by that much!"<br /><br />Gold faded late in the day and failed to recapture ground north of the 200 day, though just by a whisker. Storm warning flags still flying over the PM sector as far as I'm concerned. All could finally break either way, and Dan is right to advise most to simply watch from the cheap seats.Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41400935247354053312014-05-02T14:46:25.077-07:002014-05-02T14:46:25.077-07:00Yep...hearing you on that.
Starting to see some de...Yep...hearing you on that.<br />Starting to see some details at Reuters etc.<br /><br />This is fresh stuff. I'm pretty sure additional incidents of mayhem will start creeping out over the weekend.<br /><br />Glad I don't live on the other side of the planet.<br /><br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56812539433591233382014-05-02T13:49:45.974-07:002014-05-02T13:49:45.974-07:00dark, be careful of the info from the Bulgarian Bl...dark, be careful of the info from the Bulgarian Blaster;sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-26717542906965547312014-05-02T13:25:12.009-07:002014-05-02T13:25:12.009-07:00Thanks Dan.
Dragged forward from last thread...
...Thanks Dan.<br /><br />Dragged forward from last thread...<br /><br /><br /><br />"Unfortunately...my comment on the last thread (2 threads now) about an over-the-top dramatic moment/masscre in the Ukraine seeming likely was just reported on as having just ocurred or just discovered.<br /><br />Via zerohedge.com<br /><br />UPDATE: Up to 38 reported choked to death in the burned buildings of Odessa.<br /><br /><br /><br />Yikes!"DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.com