tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post509272036684422987..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Welcome to New FOMC Chair On the Job Training Ms. YellenTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41530200434513643822014-06-19T23:39:28.353-07:002014-06-19T23:39:28.353-07:00You can create ratio charts on stockcharts.comYou can create ratio charts on stockcharts.comJasperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03831704112998990130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-74492208367993350232014-06-19T20:54:43.365-07:002014-06-19T20:54:43.365-07:00Greg;
I run those comparisons on my technical ana...Greg;<br /><br />I run those comparisons on my technical analysis software. I am not aware of any sites that offer those things although you might possibly be able to use the finance.yahoo site to try it.<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71050664006100122152014-06-19T20:39:04.651-07:002014-06-19T20:39:04.651-07:00thanks Dan - what is your favorite site for compil...thanks Dan - what is your favorite site for compiling/comparing these charts? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10755930368409634558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-46201127247341277672014-06-19T20:16:54.259-07:002014-06-19T20:16:54.259-07:00Try not to let it get you down. There's no sho...Try not to let it get you down. There's no shortage of angry, sniveling people out there.<br />Some clickable ad's and a donate button wouldn 't be such a bad idea imho.<br /> You don't seem like the type of person who is going to change their outlook and analysis in order to cater to a narrow-minded clientele.<br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-31001890606180784592014-06-19T20:04:01.312-07:002014-06-19T20:04:01.312-07:00Dark Purple;
Yes indeed, they have been busy kill...Dark Purple;<br /><br />Yes indeed, they have been busy killing each other for centuries. I really think this "let's get the middle East to embrace democracy" crap has made things even worse to be honest. Those dictators were brutal but at least they kept the religious fanatics/terrorists out and kept some semblance of order. Now look at it... what a mess.....<br /><br />The run up in crude is definitely feeding into the commodity indices moving higher and fostering ideas of price inflation but I really do think that high energy prices are going to nip any nascent recovery that this economy might be experiencing right smack dab in the bud. Nothing hits consumer pocketbooks more directly than energy and food price and cuts into disposable income. <br /><br />I am going to be keeping a close eye on these equity indices as a result. Stocks might be getting very nervous about rising energy prices coming back to bite the global economy.<br /><br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-20041483827697465882014-06-19T17:36:49.209-07:002014-06-19T17:36:49.209-07:00Greg;
I am a commodities guy first and foremost a...Greg;<br /><br />I am a commodities guy first and foremost and thus am not the best when it comes to equities but I can tell you how I choose those few mining companies that I own or would own.<br /><br />As a chart guy, I always look first and foremost at the charts. That tells me the picture. <br /><br />When the sector is moving lower as a whole, I look for those companies whose stock holds up better than the average. When the sector is moving higher, I look for those that are outperforming the sector as a whole.<br /><br />How do we do this? By comparing the particular stock to the HUI. Note that I do not like investing in junior miners because I do not need the leveraged exposure to gold - I can get that through the futures market. I like mid-tiers that have proven reserves and low debt. So I take their stock chart and compare its performance to the HUI and see how it fares in both up market and down markets.<br /><br />Once those are narrowed down, then I look at the fundamentals of the company. by the way, I like dividends at my age so that is a factor but that obviously requires a company that knows how to generate PROFITS, which is the key to any stock to be honest.<br /><br />No sure this helps but it is my approach... Once a chart guy - always a chart guy!Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-22375837542459713932014-06-19T17:27:14.767-07:002014-06-19T17:27:14.767-07:00Can you share some of the miners you think are sou...Can you share some of the miners you think are sound? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10755930368409634558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56665714996770319592014-06-19T16:54:40.770-07:002014-06-19T16:54:40.770-07:00Dom;
continued
If you notice I am neither permanen...Dom;<br />continued<br />If you notice I am neither permanently bullish nor permanently bearish. I am a trader that reads the market, reacts to the sentiment and tries to understand it so as to profit. I have no vested interest in which direction gold goes nor do I derive my income from anything except trading.<br /><br />In other words, I do not have the LUXURY of sitting on the sidelines prognosticating one wild theory after another, especially when it is always on the same side. The only way I make money is if I am right about the direction the market. It is as simple as that my friend.<br /><br />Sometimes I am correct, sometimes I am not; When I am incorrect, I recognize it quickly and move to safety or actually will reverse and go with the flow. I hope you are understanding where I am coming from - it is a matter of being sick and tired of hucksters and wild-eyed armchair sideliners who do not make their living IN the market as I do but OFF of the market and off of others. Like I have said before, _ challenge them to remove every single fee generation ad on their sites -accept no revenue for advertising whatsoever and FORCE them to actually trade and take positions IN the market based on each and every wild theory they constantly regale us with and watch and see just how long any of them would be around to plague us. They would be long gone by now, every damned last one of them. <br /><br />When it comes to gold, no, I would not buy most mining shares. I do not trust management to be competent. Any good mining company should have sound technicians who understand how markets act and why they behave the way that they do to get them into sound hedging programs to protect their profits. These guys get all bulled up when prices are soaring and when the "to the moon" predictions are flying and as a result, they get no downside risk protection and watch their profits go down the drain.<br /><br />If I want leveraged exposure to gold, I can use the futures market. Others, who do not use futures can use the ETF and margin it if they want that. But buying a gold mining share because I want leveraged exposure to gold strikes me as near insanity.There are only a small number of gold mining companies that I would even consider putting money into at this point after watching their behavior and management over the last decade.<br /><br />All the best,<br />DanTrader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-6787090235617140102014-06-19T16:54:14.594-07:002014-06-19T16:54:14.594-07:00Dom;
Thanks for the follow up - I have made refer...Dom;<br /><br />Thanks for the follow up - I have made reference to that article in some previous answers in the posted comments sections in response to some various inquiries. <br /><br />My point is real simple - one cannot say that a hedged product is going to result in one type of market reaction and another of the same nature is going to result in the exact opposite. <br /><br />What the market focuses on is the extra supply of metal that might be finding its way back into the market if those loans are called or if the authorities shut the system down. At that point, the need for the metal subsides because those who are using it as collateral for loans, can no longer play the game.<br /><br />You have to understand that in China there are only so many ways that would-be borrowers can pledge collateral. Metals are used because they are easy to liquidate and lenders prefer that over housing which is an entirely different nature.<br /><br />My problem with Zerohedge goes back a long way Dom because it is that site, along with some others such as KWN which was behind the constant rash of one wild theory after another why gold was going to soar to the heavens. Whether it was backwardation claptrap, negative GOFO rates, JP Morgan cornering gold on the long side, Comex warehouses running out of gold, etc., I have heard them all and have tried my best to discredit them so as to keep the unsuspecting and the novices from swallowing that stuff and leading them to their financial detriment. <br />Keep in mind that ZH is always bullish gold, no matter what. I find that intellectually dishonest. First of all, they have a vested interest in continuing to preach to the faitfhful because their income is derived from site ads and per clicks. Anyone who does that is suspect in my view if they are always on the same side of a market.<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-75859901964548911462014-06-19T16:29:13.605-07:002014-06-19T16:29:13.605-07:00Thanks for the analysis Dan.
You're last part...Thanks for the analysis Dan.<br /><br />You're last part about the Fed jawboning or walking their words backwards....I think that's exactly what's going to happen within a week or so if the usual group of Fed heads follows their usual M.O. <br /><br /><br />Tonights Asian and London market action will be interesting to see if those markets mostly take profits after this nice little brief run-up.<br />Besides Yellens remarks, I think this Iraq situation (and the subsequent rise in crude) has the potential to keep this rally alive for quite awhile.<br /><br />Hopefully it dies down but it seems that 1400 years of animosity and violence between Sunni's and Shia's within a huge power vaccuum will more than likely result in an implosion with historic consequences. <br />At some point in history this sunni/shia "feud" gets mostly settled and the Persians or Arabs come out on top.<br />If you're SA and you fear/think Iran is building nuclear bombs you're going to want to confront them (and Assad) before they get them and not after.<br /><br />I think Israel would agree on that.DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-3179820287899184502014-06-19T15:55:52.743-07:002014-06-19T15:55:52.743-07:00Oh my God. The Fed is manipulating the price to th...Oh my God. The Fed is manipulating the price to the upside. You goldbugs make me sick. jdsquicktraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17271946908552484998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41361216699260208452014-06-19T15:52:03.591-07:002014-06-19T15:52:03.591-07:00Dan I appreciate what you're saying but answer...Dan I appreciate what you're saying but answer me this: have you actually read the ZH article in detail? If so what part of their analysis do you disagree with? They predicted that this unwind in China will result in lower copper/iron ore prices and higher PM prices and go in to a great deal of detail explaining why. If you disagree with their analysis that's fine but what part of it don't you agree with? Sometimes I get the impression you lump any of their articles into the gold fanatics column and don't give them the credit they sometimes deserve. Did they not point out the LIBOR scam years before anyone else was talking about it? In fact if you check their track history they have made a number of excellent calls over the years.<br /><br />Since the CCFD probe begun, gold and silver are significantly higher and copper and iron ore lower which is exactly what Zero Hedge predicted would happen.<br /><br />I'm not saying other factors aren't at play here. I agree with you that the sentiment has shifted to a more inflationary one which is why a number of commodities are up. What I am saying is that this situation in China could well be adding fuel to the fire here. <br /><br />You have a wide audience and like to speak of macro economic events. Surely it's worth your time having a closer look at the ZH article? As I already stated, copper and iron ore are down (and have hardly made any significant gains today have they) where as PM's are up significantly since the issues in China began.<br /><br />I love simple explanaations i just most of the time the workd is more complicated than we'd like it to be :-). <br /><br />One other question, if and when you play gold more from the long side again will you be investing in the miners, or more the commodity itself?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17051711597631147977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-22486752141652741912014-06-19T14:59:11.635-07:002014-06-19T14:59:11.635-07:00I would hate to see you go.
But I would love to s...I would hate to see you go. <br />But I would love to see you make more money, post the ads for God's sake. If people don't like them they don't have to click. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10755930368409634558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-33372945215547422562014-06-19T14:43:01.936-07:002014-06-19T14:43:01.936-07:00We'll see if Dan is right or ZH is right if th...We'll see if Dan is right or ZH is right if the metals significantly outperform the sector as this unfolds. Part of this may also be sovereign debt concerns (Argentina, France, Austria, Belgium, at the moment, the rest in due time). Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10755930368409634558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-24479127303733461172014-06-19T14:35:58.000-07:002014-06-19T14:35:58.000-07:00I guess the fact that a lot of the actual metal wa... I guess the fact that a lot of the actual metal was double and triple hedged doesn't mean anything? Those earlier paper hedges don't need to be covered with actual metal, do they? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10755930368409634558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-60150118348262659602014-06-19T14:14:46.132-07:002014-06-19T14:14:46.132-07:00I somehow don't think it's Yellen alone ca...I somehow don't think it's Yellen alone causing the rally. Let's not forget the impact of ECB neg rate. <br /><br />It never dropped that hard in late May to begin w/ and a bull hammer on GDXJ chart on May 28th already signaled downside exhaustion. Then there's that ridiculous pile of managed money short in silver who had a record of more wrong than right (despite their flash in the pan success in April 2013) and now silver market proves them wrong ONCE MORE.<br /><br />Yellen only played a small part of it.Ruihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01381363570926076708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-48344112270629331852014-06-19T14:09:53.102-07:002014-06-19T14:09:53.102-07:00rlm;
the idea of hedging ones metal holdings is a...rlm;<br /><br />the idea of hedging ones metal holdings is an excellent strategy and one I hope some of the readers here at the site are employing. It cushions downside moves while proper managing of those hedges allows one to move into and out of them based on the technical price action. It sure as hell beats buy and buy and buy and hold on. <br /><br />A comex gold contract is 100 ounces. For every block of 100 ounces that a person owns, they can use a single contract for that purpose. Some of us here have been working hedges with good success since gold broke down below $1530. It is a bit tricky reading some of these violent rallies that have regularly occurred but if you own physical metal, you are okay on the rallies especially if you hedge that metal when the technicals deteriorate and the price looks to make another drop lower. Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-47714755469068064652014-06-19T14:04:29.044-07:002014-06-19T14:04:29.044-07:00The FED will be happy today FIAT just deflated aga...The FED will be happy today FIAT just deflated against Gold, remember the US needs a cheaper $ to pay back debt. It,s nice to have the Government supporting a higher Gold price for the few while main street is stuck with FIAT junk. Hold and accumulate metal with trailing paper hedges just in case the horse bolts. Enjoy the ride.rlmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12918742376497409998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-92198313772272731592014-06-19T14:04:23.681-07:002014-06-19T14:04:23.681-07:00"All I can say is our phone has been red-hot...."All I can say is our phone has been red-hot. Equities are rapidly becoming the new international gold and safe-haven."<br /><br />Wonder if Armstrong will change his forecast on gold - if he's sticking to $950 then this move today should be one of the greatest head fakes in gold market histories.<br /><br />http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/06/19/sovereign-debt-crisis-beginning/<br />The Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04786387211895954719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-90557491428186217142014-06-19T13:58:06.984-07:002014-06-19T13:58:06.984-07:00Wolf;
Yes indeed buddy - lots and lots of those.....Wolf;<br /><br />Yes indeed buddy - lots and lots of those... not only in the metals, but elsewhere through the sector.<br /><br />I really do wonder at this point if the Fed was getting worried about a falling gold price and decided to do something about it. They cannot have the gold price going nowhere and attain their inflation target of 2%. They need higher prices although if I had to guess, they do not want those higher prices in the crude oil and gasoline markets. They want cheap energy because higher energy prices will tend to have the exact opposite effect on the commodity - they will curtail growth.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-66642933751465505422014-06-19T13:54:41.886-07:002014-06-19T13:54:41.886-07:00I guess a lot of margin calls in Gold and Silver f...I guess a lot of margin calls in Gold and Silver futures will be going out tomorrow with payment due by 12 noon Eastern time. I was in this boat once, decades ago and it was painful and stressful. WolfWisdomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01035527970541910596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-29938473952442966042014-06-19T13:52:05.363-07:002014-06-19T13:52:05.363-07:00Arthur;
Why? Because I am unhappy with Yellen? Ma...Arthur;<br /><br />Why? Because I am unhappy with Yellen? Macro funds make my life difficult in a host of markets Arthur because they trade independently of fundamentals and that produces wild swings in price which are generally unpredictable. One has to deal with those and try to react to them but when you have index funds moving money into the commodity sector it clouds the picture and the short term gyrations more difficult to anticipate.<br /><br />Would you like an example? Yesterday Feeder Cattle were locked LIMIT DOWN. Today they are locked LIMIT UP! Some of the buying in there came in because hot money flows hit the entire livestock sector today. Yesterday the fundamentals looked iffy. Today, the fundamentals now look wonderful. No - what happened is fund money came into the markets and produced a huge shift in the order flow.<br /><br />That is simply a fact. Notice I am not saying anything about "evil manipulaters" working for the government. I am stating that Yellen threw everyone a curve ball and forced a swift, abrupt shift in inflation sentiment because of her comments. What is the big deal about that.<br /><br />HOnestly however, I have been called everything from the antichrist to the son of belial to beyond. What do I care? Maybe I will just trade and go my thing and get my life back without having to deal with this site. It pays poorly, that is for sure. Then again, If I filled it with lots of ads, I could make some real money off of everyone instead of being the poor sap that I am and writing and teaching for free.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-65316091257946315282014-06-19T13:43:28.702-07:002014-06-19T13:43:28.702-07:00Dan - listen to yourself man - you sound just like...Dan - listen to yourself man - you sound just like the gold bugs - except the other side of the coin. I wonder what they (the gold bugs) will be nick-naming you now!Arthur Applebyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12388639133497917529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-51992407999833563722014-06-19T13:33:51.758-07:002014-06-19T13:33:51.758-07:00jds;
you are a bigger fool than I thought! I have...jds;<br /><br />you are a bigger fool than I thought! I have been bearish gold since it broke below $1530 as any good technician would be and have been fortunately able to profit from playing the short side of this market.<br /><br />Within the bear market there have been counter-trend rallies which have been perfectly tradeable although they require one to be very quick and very nimble.<br /><br />If you did the buy and hold thing on gold and have been doing that for years, then no one need inform you that you have lost a helluva lot of money, not only in gold but by missing out on once-in-lifetime opportunities in other sectors. That is a simple fact, like it or not.<br /><br />I always get a kick out of these rallies because it brings all the cockroaches scurrying out to crow how right they have been while they conveniently forgot to look at the charts and note the collapse from $1900 to below $1200 in gold and from $50 in silver to below $19.<br /><br />I am glad for the long suffering gold bulls that their shares are doing better but please spare us traders, who move in and out of the market, your stories about how wise you have been. The proof of the pudding is in the eating and for traders, it is in the size of their trading accounts.<br /><br />One can make money by either being long or by being short. It does not matter which as long as one is on the correct side of that market. That is why I write here - to help teach others who want to learn how to read markets.<br /><br />I have to laugh at your ignorance of my trading. You can believe whatever you want to believe as arguing with fools is a waste of time. <br /><br />And by the way - for your info - I would not return to KWN if they begged me to come back. That is a perfect example of what is wrong with so many in the gold community. They would rather live on sensationalism and wild theories than learn to respect market and price action.<br /><br />Have a pleasant day and by the way, please do keep all the rest of the readers here, including myself, exactly what positions I have on and when I enter those trades and exit them. I would love to know what I am doing and who better than you to inform me!<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-38308499369393665252014-06-19T13:23:22.564-07:002014-06-19T13:23:22.564-07:00I would guess that you went short gold right aroun...I would guess that you went short gold right around the time you were kicked off kind world news for going bearish which was 1/17/14. The price of gold was about $1250. So I would guess you're down a minimum of $70 an ounce. I say a minimum because I'm sure you've been whipped in and out of you're position a few times since then. However, I'm guessing your big loses were from the end of '11 until January of 2014 because you were bullish that entire time. Sound about right, genius. jdsquicktraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17271946908552484998noreply@blogger.com