tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post4256766662183203101..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Good Riddance to August BeansTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41664653694842529082014-08-15T11:39:07.703-07:002014-08-15T11:39:07.703-07:00Mike:
To clarify the "bullish" case for...Mike:<br /><br />To clarify the "bullish" case for Gold, gold equities (rather than broad market equities) are leading Gold. See a chart of the HUI:GOLD ratio rise off the January bottom. As Dan recently pointed out normally gold stocks will lead the gold higher (or lower). That was certainly the case with the route in gold equities leading gold down starting in 2012. <br /><br />Looks like some of the Ukraine premium was wrung out of Gold this morning, however, if Gold can hold the latest bottom of 1280, would be a "positive" as it would reinforce the higher low from the 2013 low of 1180. <br /><br />My only point on the FED actions is that the market seems to have accepted the idea that a rate hike will be forthcoming in 2015. If the FED adopts a more dovish tone after the end of QE3, the market sentiment could all change and this could be positive for Gold. Gold does well when interest rates drop (there is a decent correlation with the 10yr and 30 yr treasury prices and gold). The 30 yr treasury and gold both bottomed at the end of 2013. Right now the 10 year yield has lost support at 2.4%. That was could be a "key" support level. Will likely close below 2.4% this week. If it remains below that level next week, it could indicate even lower rates. The 30 year is back to levels from a year ago. I do not have any open positions in Gold futures now.<br /><br />With so much turbulence running through the markets right now, it is and "headlines" driving much of the price action makes for a challenging trading environment for sure. <br /><br />Perhaps Dan can shed some light on some of this action in future posts! Trinity traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04724567191536534544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-61482135860546194752014-08-15T08:58:11.648-07:002014-08-15T08:58:11.648-07:00Agreed about the saloon doors Janet.
To be more pr...Agreed about the saloon doors Janet.<br />To be more precise, WTI was short term target for 50%.<br />But for gold, I made the short because it's the last day on the weekly time unit and the red resistance is heading down every week.<br />So it's a much longer term bet, close to the red resistance and waiting to see if gold is able or not to break above it.<br />So for the moment, I'm just keeping the line, wait and see.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-81089823513166399262014-08-15T08:03:03.083-07:002014-08-15T08:03:03.083-07:00Back to screen... WTI light, out 50% at 96.61 :)
H...Back to screen... WTI light, out 50% at 96.61 :)<br />Happy of the day!<br />Stop loss remains at 95.20 for the remaining long line (95.30).<br /><br />I prefer to take 50% quickly, given the strong short-term volatility within those markets. A gain is a gain only when you are out of the market.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-53228082081809378582014-08-15T07:38:37.790-07:002014-08-15T07:38:37.790-07:00Double tops are in on XAU, HUI, confirmed by gappi...Double tops are in on XAU, HUI, confirmed by gapping lower this morning. The KWN bulls are caught holding the bag once again.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85657831538893143872014-08-15T06:55:58.882-07:002014-08-15T06:55:58.882-07:00Yes, nice one Hubert. I had a gold sell order but ...Yes, nice one Hubert. I had a gold sell order but it missed by 2 dollars. Don't forget to take profit, you know the saloon door can hit you in the face.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07670380166707116617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-21046042501223212742014-08-15T06:55:50.048-07:002014-08-15T06:55:50.048-07:00Warren Buffet is the worst kind of wall street scu...Warren Buffet is the worst kind of wall street scum bag. His down home, aw shucks image sickens me with the hypocrisy. He needs mom and pop JSP to just sit in these hazardous markets so he can make billions off them. Wasn't it a couple of years ago he was talking up exxon stock while BH was quietly selling every share they own. Don't get me wrong, he is working the system as it is designed and doing quite well at it but drop the folksy, hypocritical act. He would be no where without fleecing the 401K's and IRA's of the people who have taken his grandfatherly advice and blindly entered the market. If you are a long term, buy and hold investor you better pay attention when you enter these markets.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01370226402752071107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-5075171810282874592014-08-15T06:31:09.890-07:002014-08-15T06:31:09.890-07:00I would say the next important level to watch to g...I would say the next important level to watch to go long would be 1275 ... we shall see , perhaps you are right , and this thing gets dumped , fundamentals are not with gold at this point in time thats for sure , you never know with this beast . Lets see what Dan " chief Brody " Norcini has to say about this .. You two make a good team !Anonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01595034035769200702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-63238130733063934272014-08-15T06:30:07.759-07:002014-08-15T06:30:07.759-07:00By the way, it beats pocket aces by a mile. Or a k...By the way, it beats pocket aces by a mile. Or a kilometer.arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17597016551120682781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88789450076001959202014-08-15T06:26:39.650-07:002014-08-15T06:26:39.650-07:00Short gold and long oil at exactly the right time ...Short gold and long oil at exactly the right time and profitable in both. People would die to be able to trade like that.arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17597016551120682781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-87659166702064266332014-08-15T06:22:52.390-07:002014-08-15T06:22:52.390-07:00Yep , Hubert , you pretty good Yep , Hubert , you pretty good Anonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01595034035769200702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-5404376129619608832014-08-15T06:04:22.680-07:002014-08-15T06:04:22.680-07:00Thanks arnie, though I feel uncomfortable with the...Thanks arnie, though I feel uncomfortable with the compliment.<br />I'm not a trader, I bet only small amounts, and I'm trying to learn what works from real good traders here and there.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-39587312447829551932014-08-15T05:34:33.947-07:002014-08-15T05:34:33.947-07:00You have turned into a great trader. Truly great.You have turned into a great trader. Truly great.arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17597016551120682781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-34260469205959305012014-08-15T05:28:54.157-07:002014-08-15T05:28:54.157-07:00Much of the above has been true for the duration o...Much of the above has been true for the duration of the bear run in gold. <br /><br />Just because gold is underperforming stocks does not mean it will go up. Rather it is a potential for a shift in sentiment. <br /><br />The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Be careful my friend. <br /><br />Or have I missed your point?Mike Ehlerthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03796788820435662856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-43423641910414180262014-08-15T05:26:56.738-07:002014-08-15T05:26:56.738-07:00Back to my screen...a short limit at 1314 took tod...Back to my screen...a short limit at 1314 took today on gold because it's last day of the week and see the chart with the red line downwards...stop loss 1323 and target...well I don't have one yet actually, because if gold collapses, it may also be now...so I'll wait and see what to do next with this line.<br />My current positions : <br />- long light WTI 95.30<br />- short gold 1314<br />- short (50% left) eur usd.<br />Have a nice weekend,<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-8770109280375585662014-08-15T02:35:36.245-07:002014-08-15T02:35:36.245-07:00I'm talking about WTI lol.I'm talking about WTI lol.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88791084948782178992014-08-15T00:41:19.834-07:002014-08-15T00:41:19.834-07:00Not too bad config on the 5 minutes to try a long ...Not too bad config on the 5 minutes to try a long at 95.30 so here I am, with a stop loss under the recent lows, hardly 10 cents below :)<br />Target at least 96.60, let's see. Very speculative and short term trade for the first half.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-6417414904080193962014-08-15T00:27:36.456-07:002014-08-15T00:27:36.456-07:00Bob , thanks for that link on Casey. It is a wakeu...Bob , thanks for that link on Casey. It is a wakeup and most thought provoking. Predictions are dangerous but sometimes they do pay off. Casey did predict the uranium bull run in his 1998 Newsletter, of which I have a copy and Dines did predict the internet mania, also in his book written in 1994. Casey also said buy gold in 2000. Maybe it is just broken clocks, they are right twice a day. I subscribe to Russell and he does make bad gold calls and market calls, but Thursday a week ago he said the correction was over due to classic dow non confirmation of the transport. So as I told a friend of mine. I take all opinions and then do my own thinking and make my own predictions. Many thanks for the link, I would never have seen that otherwise.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07670380166707116617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-73751375799794377452014-08-15T00:24:27.358-07:002014-08-15T00:24:27.358-07:00Gold.
Here is the risk I'm seeing as long as ...Gold.<br /><br />Here is the risk I'm seeing as long as 1320 is above gold prices...in fact as long as the red line is above gold prices. No wonder bears are hard to beat in this area currently.<br /><br />http://i60.tinypic.com/fbg5r7.jpgAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-74821520913676222872014-08-14T21:08:11.964-07:002014-08-14T21:08:11.964-07:00Most bullish case for Gold:
1) Equities are leadin...Most bullish case for Gold:<br />1) Equities are leading Gold<br />2) higher lows since end of 2013 (1180, 1240, and most recently 1280)<br />3) Even though commodity complex is lower, maybe that could serve to support Gold if CPI falls. If CPI falls with lower food and energy prices, what would be the impetus for the FED to raise rates in a deflationary environment? Maybe the Gold market would sniff this out and continue firming up? If the FED does end QE3 in Oct and history repeats itself (post QE1 and QE2), the equity market could pull back again. If so, how will the FED then justify raising rates in 2015? <br />4) The Gold market's reaction to Putin's dovish comments were pretty flat today (after the fireworks from the jobless claims data). Unlike crude which got smoked on the Putin statement, gold held its own. <br /><br />Seems to be consolidating here between 1305 and 1320. As Dan states "in no mans land". Trinity traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04724567191536534544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-3853991982575891952014-08-14T20:27:20.354-07:002014-08-14T20:27:20.354-07:00"The EU is not about peace. The EU is about p..."The EU is not about peace. The EU is about power." - Tony Blair.<br />We might have civil war in Europe when the population of its major constituents such as UK, France... are fed up to see that despite making 35% votes at their country's elections, they are not represented at all in Brussels.<br />This guy already had a plane accident.<br />I wonder if a private angel saved his life and will do it again.<br />Meanwhile, he obviously makes a point here, and his 2012 forecast was right given the recent ISIS developements. But who will listen to a guy who gathers a mere 35% of english voters? lol.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQGLWl4MTrkAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-5572146920133214112014-08-14T17:46:58.422-07:002014-08-14T17:46:58.422-07:00most people do not want to thinkmost people do not want to thinkAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-53855088681718572062014-08-14T17:04:38.470-07:002014-08-14T17:04:38.470-07:00I remember my first drug high.
No, it wasn’t from...<i>I remember my first drug high.<br /><br />No, it wasn’t from a shady deal made with a seedy character in a bad part of town. I was in the hospital, recovering from surgery, and while I wasn’t in a lot of pain, the nurse suggested something to help me sleep better. I didn’t really think I needed it—but within seconds of that needle puncturing my skin, I WAS IN HEAVEN.<br /><br />The euphoria that struck my brain was indescribable. The fluid coursing through my veins was so powerful I’ve never forgotten it. I can easily see why people get hooked on drugs.</i><br /><br />DOES THE GUY NOT REALISE THAT THIS WAS AN INDUCED HALLUCINATION?<br /><br /><i>"And that’s why I think silver, purchased at current prices, could be a life-changing investment"</i><br /><br />DOES THE GUY NOT REALISE THAT THIS IS AN INDUCED HALLUCINATION /DELUSION?<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-14/guest-post-top-7-reasons-buy-silver-now<br /><br /><b> There IS no "reason" to buy Silver now - "Top" or otherwise - because itbis going to Hell in a Handcart. </b><br /><br />Will fools never stop parroting this <i>"low inventories / Chinese demand / historically cheap / production costs"</i> claptrap?PostcolonialBrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12530753879569768458noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69219072979318309092014-08-14T16:50:03.313-07:002014-08-14T16:50:03.313-07:00rim, these things can go longer than you would thi...rim, these things can go longer than you would think; myself, I thought ccccccchristmas of '08 was it for the bonds, but I was wrong, so just stay patient on getting short my friendAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58345023869929049562014-08-14T16:46:39.132-07:002014-08-14T16:46:39.132-07:00Zhang I am afraid you are correct.Zhang I am afraid you are correct.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-34041796522635852342014-08-14T16:36:01.793-07:002014-08-14T16:36:01.793-07:00All I can say is that consumers will be celebratin...All I can say is that consumers will be celebrating with glee at the huge drop in energy prices the last 3 weeks.<br /><br />And don't even get me started on interest rates, pretty soon everything will be financed at zero percent for 60 or 72 months.<br /><br />I'm expecting a massive consumer spending orgy.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.com