tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post3746038494491381659..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Macro Trade DayTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-55346205388466153602012-12-22T13:16:55.525-08:002012-12-22T13:16:55.525-08:00Power Corrupts - thanks so much for running down t...Power Corrupts - thanks so much for running down those stats. Those are most revealing. Looks like the Fed is getting the "animal spirits" revived again. More liquor in the punch bowl should do the trick - so much for being the responsible adults!Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-61621615712180165522012-12-21T09:02:20.749-08:002012-12-21T09:02:20.749-08:00Dan wrote, "My guess ( and perhaps some enter...Dan wrote, "My guess ( and perhaps some enterprising reader can run the data to check ) is that consumers are ramping up those credit card balances once again."<br /><br />Dan, as of November 30, personal income was up 4.14% yoy; as of October 31 (November not available yet), seasonally adjusted personal credit outstanding was up 6.01% yoy. Revolving was +1.05%, nonrevolving was +8.41%. Total consumer credit outstanding as a % of disposable personal income is back up to ~23% (it was ~21.5% at the beginning of the year). So much for the "great deleveraging"... <br /> Power Corruptshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07546392212300627814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-6324938493675471702012-12-21T07:48:13.615-08:002012-12-21T07:48:13.615-08:00If interest rates rise, it will be because the eco...If interest rates rise, it will be because the economy is doing better. If the economy is doing better, the government will collect more money from tax revenue, as always happens when the the economy does better. This will negate whatever additional money the government has to pay out via higher interest rates, and possibly even be a net positive, depending on how *much* stronger the economy gets.<br /><br />Remember, Greenspan raised interest rates in the mid-90's. We were running a deficit before that, but it wasn't long afterwards when we started running a surplus, because the economy got much stronger.<br /><br />Finally, as recently as the spring of 2010, the yield on the 10-year got almost up to 4% (it's less than 2% now). No reason it can't get that high again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-38399753537306899242012-12-21T06:22:02.142-08:002012-12-21T06:22:02.142-08:00Consider the very likely possibility that the Fed ...Consider the very likely possibility that the Fed is actually engaged primarily in a currency war, with "full employment" being mainly a cover story. Also consider the fact that the CPI calculation is extremely distorted to under-report real life costs of living and there are moves afoot to distort it even more. Factor in the language in the FOMC statement about examining "other factors" in the labor market. <br /><br />I think the reasonable and conservative conclusion is that the Fed will be engaged in QE and maintain extremely low rates at least throughout the year of 2013.flaunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16131258898695819788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9644361319807838882012-12-20T23:30:58.311-08:002012-12-20T23:30:58.311-08:00Dan,
Thank you for your reply.
For me, if I were...Dan, <br />Thank you for your reply.<br /><br />For me, if I were going to sue someone it would be the banks NOT the FED. Go after the weakest links. <br /><br />I know banks are not weak and are paying billions in penalties following successful litigations against them and are getting these lost billions back from the FED.<br /><br />However I heard your message. Thnk you again.<br />Huberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05233332512788687701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-25812681344392730302012-12-20T20:20:00.001-08:002012-12-20T20:20:00.001-08:00Unknown,
What happens when rates rise as you pred...Unknown,<br /><br />What happens when rates rise as you predict they will? How much more borrowing does the government. Have to do to cover the higher interest payments on the govt debt?<br /><br />It's simple math.<br /><br />Rates rise means game over.SilverIsKinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12425755322253327792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-68363290322189150542012-12-20T19:28:48.403-08:002012-12-20T19:28:48.403-08:00flaunt, look at the guy's charts. His model ha...flaunt, look at the guy's charts. His model has predicted the unemployment rate pretty darn well. Also, the guy is hardly dabbling in 6th grade math. He's a physicist. You can check out his website <a href="http://mechonomic.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">here</a>.<br /><br />As for the FOMC, they may indeed leave rates at or near zero for a bit after the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%, but that will clearly be a signal they do not expect it to remain at zero for much longer afterwards.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-77334292045191036852012-12-20T18:36:17.797-08:002012-12-20T18:36:17.797-08:00Unknown,
It's pretty obvious the headline une...Unknown,<br /><br />It's pretty obvious the headline unemployment numbers are a sham for public consumption only. Do you really believe that's the Fed's "go to" number when figuring out what to do in response to unemployment? <br /><br />From the statement:<br />"...the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens."<br /><br />"...and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range of the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent..."<br /><br />"In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions..."<br /><br />Further, "When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment..."<br /><br />Guessing about the future unemployment rate is one sort of folly. Taking such a figure and sticking it into a 6th grade math formula to determine the outcome of central bank policy is stupidity.<br /><br />I don't believe for one second that there is any rational, fundamental-based analysis causing this sell off. I believe the Paulson liquidation story before that. At the very least I think the large number of put options that Dan mentioned in his piece are evidence that the actor performing the liquidation is the same who hedged with the puts in order to come out clean after they get done playing wrecking ball. flaunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16131258898695819788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85772118018062118452012-12-20T17:27:05.211-08:002012-12-20T17:27:05.211-08:00"Either way, the idea that the Fed is going t..."Either way, the idea that the Fed is going to suddenly begin thinking seriously of drawing down its balance sheet sooner than expected based on this data is whimsical to say the least."<br /><br /><a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/1053631-the-rate-of-unemployment-may-fall-below-6-in-a-year" rel="nofollow"><b>No it isn't</b></a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85016905466570504972012-12-20T15:52:05.386-08:002012-12-20T15:52:05.386-08:00What do you make of the idea that Paulson is havin...What do you make of the idea that Paulson is having to liquidate positions due to Morgan Stanley dumping their funds? You noted the raft of put options bought recently and I was thinking earlier I wonder if Paulson bought a bunch of puts prior to dumping so he could get out fast and make up the losses on the puts. Too ridiculous?<br /><br />Confounding to say the least.flaunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16131258898695819788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-79710284962425607142012-12-20T15:17:25.811-08:002012-12-20T15:17:25.811-08:00Hi Dan,
Thanks as always for your take on the day...Hi Dan,<br /><br />Thanks as always for your take on the day's events. Could you please provide some support levels for silver in addition the gold chart you provided? It doesn't have to be a chart, I just need to know where we stand in silver as this is my main interest. Thanks!TheGilliomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15683076214137118915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-49098154330729817222012-12-20T13:51:44.100-08:002012-12-20T13:51:44.100-08:00Hubert;
It would have to be proven beyond a reaso...Hubert;<br /><br />It would have to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt that the Fed was using the big banks as their proxy. That would be tough enough to do.<br /><br />Then on the other hand you might end up with these guys claiming to be agents of the US government and therefore out of the reach of litigation.<br /><br />Remember what Barrick did back when it was being sued by Blanchard?<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-50595300759386700562012-12-20T12:44:20.677-08:002012-12-20T12:44:20.677-08:00Dan,
Thank you again for helping us understand wha...Dan,<br />Thank you again for helping us understand what is going on.<br /><br />I still do have a question (the same one I have been asking in different ways with NO response from anyone): Why don't we take the manipulators to court? The Libor's manipulators are being charged but it looks as no one is doing anything about the gold manipulation.<br /><br />Any answer?Huberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05233332512788687701noreply@blogger.com