tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post3493027594246560044..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Jobs Reports Sends Dollar SoaringTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7790330211631943962014-10-03T14:18:28.662-07:002014-10-03T14:18:28.662-07:00Russia already prepare for oil scenario at 60$. So...Russia already prepare for oil scenario at 60$. So gold 800$ not far fetchedAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13633775531662488818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71890557404732945522014-10-03T14:08:54.238-07:002014-10-03T14:08:54.238-07:00Take a rest and we will prepare for next week with...Take a rest and we will prepare for next week with FOMC minute. I love to short SP500 too and struggle to find a good entry for thatAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13633775531662488818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56186955839275119102014-10-03T14:00:25.610-07:002014-10-03T14:00:25.610-07:00Linh, it's absolutely possible that we do so, ...Linh, it's absolutely possible that we do so, with the last daily candles we had yesterday and today, and are quite bullish in terms of construction on the daily time unit.<br />I can try a short sometimes because I know that on the smaller time units, I'll probably have the resistance holding and a beginning of a correction, so that I can put a stop loss very close and then back to the level I entered. It doesn't mean I don't realize I'm countertrend on the slower time unit, or that I think my chances are more than 50%. Sometimes they are less than 50% but my risk reward ratio is so good that I go for it. <br />Tired this evening, hard week. Going to bed, good night.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-84154371487449332032014-10-03T13:56:18.594-07:002014-10-03T13:56:18.594-07:00love your posts Dan, you are always my first read ...love your posts Dan, you are always my first read once the market has closed, always covering the most relevant sectors (to me) , and with a very clear and unbiased analysis...i am looking forward to re-entering gold related assets, but i will defintely wait for the trend to curl/change...for that, the stock market will probably need to fall, deflation fears need to reverse and dollar needs to come down, i reckon gold at $1179 (we are basically there now) will give way before this happens....thanks again Dan.precious woodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13762260606374686793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-11589491730448816222014-10-03T13:54:58.821-07:002014-10-03T13:54:58.821-07:00This is what may happen to gold soon...if I watch ...This is what may happen to gold soon...if I watch the Cdur on the weekly/monthly time scale.<br /><br />http://i61.tinypic.com/2gxgt4j.jpg<br /><br />Sure...this is the time to accumulate into weakness...sorry, I prefer to wait for a bounce and if gold showss strength, then maybe it will be time to buy. But now? I remain short. Maybe I'll even add up with a short stop under 1180.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-55513678794425872942014-10-03T13:35:03.233-07:002014-10-03T13:35:03.233-07:00"realized that they made a huge error, and ar..."realized that they made a huge error, and are now unwinding those positions."<br />I don't imagine chinese people unwinding their long physical positions, no matter what the price in dollar terms is at a given time. You should ask Lan about that one :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-73011378394509753012014-10-03T13:28:48.846-07:002014-10-03T13:28:48.846-07:00Shem, I'm trying to read charts as well and le...Shem, I'm trying to read charts as well and learn.<br />I'm far from being an expert at reading charts and T.A, though I haave now good notions and I somehow at a lucky streak of successful trades recently.<br />It's still very hard for me to "guess" where the market will go, and I owe my small gains to a tight money management rather than to exact forecasts. Don't doubt yourself because I wrote something which seems to contradict your own analysis because it could as well be me being wrong :)<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-83794823022681605852014-10-03T13:13:12.796-07:002014-10-03T13:13:12.796-07:00UUP closed up for the 8th consecutive week.
Each ...UUP closed up for the 8th consecutive week.<br /><br />Each week the volume has been stronger and stronger.<br /><br />Today's weekly close on 12.5 million shares traded was the biggest volume ever.<br /><br />Clear proof that economy here in the U.S. is on the cusp of an epic boom, validated by today's jobs report.<br /><br />All the naysayers like Gerald Celente who have been screaming about a depression and a "Mad Max" world must now be doubled over, clutching his stomach, and puking up blood.<br /><br />Same with Peter Schiff, Eric Sprott, etc. who are battling huge redemptions daily and are essentially in a forced liquidation mode.<br /><br />And obviously, the Chinese and Russians who were accumulating gold at the expense of holding U.S. dollars for their foreign reserves have suddenly realized that they made a huge error, and are now unwinding those positions.<br /><br />That's basically 18 months worth of "accumulation" over $1,200 which are now in a losing position, and are now just beginning to get peeled off.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-19111125052517064372014-10-03T13:03:17.317-07:002014-10-03T13:03:17.317-07:00It's official.
The XAU has now broken all rec...It's official.<br /><br />The XAU has now broken all records for one of the longest and deepest bear market depressions ever recorded.<br /><br />39 months.<br /><br />The tech crash from the 2000 highs in March only last 36 months: March 2000 to March 2013.<br /><br />The recent 2009 market crash from October 2007 to March 2009 last only 18 months.<br /><br />In fact in 38 months, the S & P 500 was within a stone's throw of the 2007 recovery highs, meaning that anyone who hung on were made whole in just over 3 years.<br /><br />Here we are over 3 years later in the XAU, and many stocks are still down 70% - 80% with no chance of recovering whatsoever.<br /><br />Very sad.<br /><br />And yet none of the "acclaimed experts" on KWN were able to predict one of the biggest bear markets ever.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-36248510666214356302014-10-03T12:46:47.224-07:002014-10-03T12:46:47.224-07:00Paper
It's the way you disagreed.
If you go ...Paper<br />It's the way you disagreed. <br />If you go to someone's house and insult him don't expect to stay for dinner. <br /><br />If you want to make more posts like your previous ones either start your own blog or find a host who likes that stuff. Mike Ehlerthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03796788820435662856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-78196578107183721652014-10-03T12:39:42.183-07:002014-10-03T12:39:42.183-07:00paper puppet;
I delete posts from gold cult membe...paper puppet;<br /><br />I delete posts from gold cult members.<br />in regards to KWN - posting an occasional piece from a sound analyst does not make up for the amount of worthless crap and wild sensationalism that it is noted for. It is one of the prime pushers of "MR Massive Gold buying" that famed "insider" with secret knowledge of the gold market peddling an exorbitantly priced newsletter along with one Mr. Turk ( a big short squeeze is coming any day now I swear) along with the rest of the dead wrong "experts" who cannot read a simple price chart.<br /><br />As far as any of the rest of your posts - here is my motto:<br /><br />"Do not speak in the hearing of a fool for he will despise the wisdom of your words" Proverbs 23:9.<br /><br />Those who post here regularly have good points to contribute. Gold cult members are not welcome. <br /><br />I have had enough of their vile, hateful, and despicably insulting emails in my inbox to last a lifetime so if you wonder why I have no patience with any of you people, consider that. I have never encountered a more wickedly, willfully blinded people in my lifetime and that is saying something. They are in love with a piece of yellow metal and spend the entirely of their lives looking for reasons for it to rise higher so that they can bow down lower and worship it more. Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-61554135651646850312014-10-03T12:33:31.754-07:002014-10-03T12:33:31.754-07:00It is interesting to see you and me conflicting in...It is interesting to see you and me conflicting in terms of SP500 but glad to see your comments everydayAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13633775531662488818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-5912993070939348132014-10-03T12:28:05.378-07:002014-10-03T12:28:05.378-07:00Hubert,
Yea, 1180 support might give way...possib...Hubert,<br /><br />Yea, 1180 support might give way...possibly soon.<br /><br />Dan and guys like you are the chart readers...I'm trying to learn charts from this site...trying<br /><br />It's just that sometimes if there is a smash coming it sorta ties in with an upcoming holiday...and it even could be another country's holiday...<br /><br />Thanks for the input.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03362203729870944493noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37842216618514198732014-10-03T12:25:14.097-07:002014-10-03T12:25:14.097-07:00Yes thank Dan for bearish view on gold. Based on T...Yes thank Dan for bearish view on gold. Based on TIPS spread. COT this time worthless , every people reading COT combine with seasonal, they concluded gold must be up. Me is among of them and Dan offers a counter view which proved to be very goodAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13633775531662488818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-4174746858550401012014-10-03T12:24:19.311-07:002014-10-03T12:24:19.311-07:00PPS : it can be an interesting spot to short, arou...PPS : it can be an interesting spot to short, around 1970 on the technical resistance on prices, with a stop loss just above near 1974 and divergences on the fast time units such as the 15 minutes (divergence MACD and MACD crossing) especially if it propagates to the 1 hour. <br />I'm not suggesting, just saying "à priori" this is how I trade, waiting for a good risk/reward ratio under a resistance which could induce a reversal IF this reversal is being announced / confirmed on the faster time units (here 1 hour then 15 minutes time frame).<br />That's why it is interesting to have access to a free trading platform for fast time units.<br />You can ask to open one for free to many providers, it's the demo platform of their real one, provided that they hope to make you become a real customer.<br />Regarding the trade, I'm not saying what I'm doing because since I'm working again, I can't post regularly to update my situation or my most recent trades. Ok, have a nice weekend for real now :)<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-13575485576603159152014-10-03T12:19:41.654-07:002014-10-03T12:19:41.654-07:00Last but not least, SP USUALLY goes up after NFP f...Last but not least, SP USUALLY goes up after NFP for more 1 to 2 days when the reading (payroll and unemployment) better than expectation. 2000 could be reached next weekAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13633775531662488818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-87986128347094756672014-10-03T12:15:01.852-07:002014-10-03T12:15:01.852-07:00P.S : SP500 right now on the top of a short term s...P.S : SP500 right now on the top of a short term slightly downwards channel (can see it on 4h or 1h candles), plus MACD starts to cross down on some units like 30 minutes...check this level, this might be a short term top. In any case, the fast and furious reversal at 1926 appears like the smallest dent in the crazy uptrend on the 2 week time scale whose last candle is ending this evening. The base of this channel was about 1945, and on monday will be even higher. Closing that high, above 1960, doesn't make the short break so serious at all, more like a bear trap before the candle was completed. But...as the channel was briefly broken anyway, I'll keep watching more and more the base of the channel, seeking for additional weakness.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-35720683705107499402014-10-03T12:11:51.059-07:002014-10-03T12:11:51.059-07:00Technically, I don't see gold could bounce up ...Technically, I don't see gold could bounce up far 1240$.Right now, 7-day Welles Wilder Stop stands at 1225 and the weekly Stop 1258.Those stops very strong. 1180$ already touched twice on June and Dec 2013. Gold just breaks out from a range which the bottom range is 2003 and upper 2040. If gold went far to 2040, it would violated the breakout and it would be a reversal move and not a pullback then going down further as you prefer. Lastly, 1200$ is to be a strong resistance. If you want to short, using Volatility Breakout Technique, wait for gold consolidated then place a sell stop accordingly. Any short or any long this time not recommended after a large move at a significant level.The optimized price for short was 1280-1320 already passedAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13633775531662488818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-90420550961502156372014-10-03T12:08:05.962-07:002014-10-03T12:08:05.962-07:00I don't know if any "major" supports...I don't know if any "major" supports will hold in this environment.<br />Long term units bollinger bands are giving way here, and they were not on the way before during last reversals.<br />It means contamination of the trend to the longer time units, and the trend is bearish...so if most monthly time units become bearish too, with diverging bollinger bands, your nice 1180 support on gold will be destroyed just as 300 copper, 88 wti, 1.27 on the euro usd, etc...<br />If volatility increases and the trend keeps going, it might even accelerate some more.<br />My target on eur usd is 1.2230 for now, 16.40 for silver (based on a pitchfork weekly time unit but daily, we are on a support right now at 16.72 heading down as well).<br />One thing I'm sure : I'm not going bullish in this HELL before I see a bounce on smaller time units, some kind of sign that e are bottoming, which for now I see absolutely nowhere, on the contrary...market is oversold but we are still breaking through support levels like butter.<br />1180 could very well give way immediately, that's why I sold only 1/3 of my position.<br /> Have a nice weekend, Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-28826184377408500882014-10-03T12:04:09.077-07:002014-10-03T12:04:09.077-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Paper puppethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07740584680156067394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-77726109930124238632014-10-03T12:00:19.028-07:002014-10-03T12:00:19.028-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Paper puppethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07740584680156067394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-30616371758025791872014-10-03T11:59:22.892-07:002014-10-03T11:59:22.892-07:00The job numbers are beyond bogus! We now have the ...The job numbers are beyond bogus! We now have the lowest labor participation rate in 38 years. And while the paper price of metals goes lower, the actual demand for physical is red hot, including more than 1.1 million Silver Eagles sold by the U.S. Mint on Oct. 1. Sales in September were also robust with more than 4.1 million Silver Eagles sold!<br /><br />http://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-mint-sells-over-750000-silver-eagles-in-one-day/u-s-mint-sells-over-750000-silver-eagles-in-one-day/Free Markethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16619036635211451607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-70212496078794062562014-10-03T11:57:14.135-07:002014-10-03T11:57:14.135-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07670380166707116617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-77552580589524623632014-10-03T11:50:25.381-07:002014-10-03T11:50:25.381-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Paper puppethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07740584680156067394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-43327359936425599712014-10-03T11:48:48.949-07:002014-10-03T11:48:48.949-07:00After the full moon , SP usually up. Before 1 week...After the full moon , SP usually up. Before 1 week of serial month, SP usually up. Seasonally, SP up from mid to the end of Oct.The action on Thursday could be classified as a bull spike. Finally SP just bounces from a weekly trendline and monthly trendline as well as Welles Wilders 7 week Volatility Stop (this stop support very well since 2013). Iam afraid Sp would make an all time high soonAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13633775531662488818noreply@blogger.com