tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post3046512391774120306..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Still watching Silver DeliveriesTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7641636693766749242011-11-03T10:58:25.478-07:002011-11-03T10:58:25.478-07:00I was going in debt while I was waiting for my set...I was going in debt while I was waiting for my settlement. Thanks to JG Wentworth, they gave me <a href="http://www.jgwentworth.com/annuity/sell-annuity.aspx" rel="nofollow">cash for annuity</a>. Now I get monthly payments to help me out with my bills.mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04987580384132037643noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-67453715097549995212011-03-22T11:55:26.134-07:002011-03-22T11:55:26.134-07:00I do agree that the amount of consipiracy speculat...I do agree that the amount of consipiracy speculation around silver is pretty ridiculous. However we do know that some very large interest or entities are keeping prices from moving upward too quickly, I think it's safe to say that. Beyond that, I don't know. <br /><br />For example, while Harvey Organ does provide some very useful insight on his blog, I find some of his speculation about COMEX activities to be a somewhat naive projection on his part.lord kooshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02990996827235679573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-8049352990517353052011-03-22T11:30:15.523-07:002011-03-22T11:30:15.523-07:00Do we have the squeeze condition now as of march 2...Do we have the squeeze condition now as of march 22?tyonkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15711346962326196022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-90856233713582903462011-03-22T05:09:05.034-07:002011-03-22T05:09:05.034-07:00I have been trading the futures market professiona...I have been trading the futures market professionally and personally for over 35 years. I don't know who came up with the term "backwardation", but in any other market, it's called what it has always been called..."BULL SPREADING". That's when the front month goes premium the deferred months. Are traders in the Silver market afraid of this term? When Bull Spreading is occurring... prices are going HIGHER. Bull Spreading works most of the time in Bull Markets.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10716555930343639290noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-30539036757965056892011-03-21T23:21:21.450-07:002011-03-21T23:21:21.450-07:00Apologies for splitting this message in two - had ...Apologies for splitting this message in two - had some issues with the blogger not accepting the following link:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=56&title=silver_forwards&show=2011" rel="nofollow">LBMA SIFO</a><br /><br />The first 5 columns are the Silver Forward Offered Rate, more or less the same as (base rate) = (future minus spot).<br /><br />VictorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-32351479518975143692011-03-21T23:15:38.288-07:002011-03-21T23:15:38.288-07:00I agree with what Brian O'Flanagan writes abou...I agree with what Brian O'Flanagan writes about COMEX delivery.<br /><br />Also, if you look at LBMA SIFO (Silver Forward Offered Rate), you see that backwardation is now disappearing. So I suppose the shorts have found all the silver they need to deliver.<br /><br />VictorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-49625636994955932642011-03-21T21:40:01.037-07:002011-03-21T21:40:01.037-07:00It will be a interesting few days to say the least...It will be a interesting few days to say the least.<br />Scott Gallup created a lot of interest in a comex silver default in Dec 08. I just tried to check dec 08 silver deliveries on his site but its now closed.<br />From Harvey Organ's blog -<br />The final figures for dec08 silver delivery was 31.245 million oz (31/12/08).<br />Harvey's intial figure for mar11 silver delivery's was 21.25 million oz(28/2/11).<br />I had a look cause my intial thought would be that the mar11 demand would have been greater than dec08.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05531720387392412511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-10394269560804982722011-03-21T20:55:34.062-07:002011-03-21T20:55:34.062-07:00Quite a few comments Dan :) Thanks for the post &...Quite a few comments Dan :) Thanks for the post & objective analysis.caramelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16037173721286319471noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-3031569487072734492011-03-21T20:46:08.556-07:002011-03-21T20:46:08.556-07:00Jack and all;
Please make an attempt to keep from...Jack and all;<br /><br />Please make an attempt to keep from personal insults to others who are expressing their opinions. Debate and comments are always welcome but we cannot allow this to degenerate into personal attacks against those whom we might disagree with. <br /><br />I can tell you all that I have been trading for more than 2 decades and in that time I have seen all manner of rumors and misinformation regarding the silver market. It is just one of those markets that seems to attract that sort of thing. <br /><br />Remember the name of the game in trading is to make money; not necessarily be right. If the market is moving higher it is a sign that there are more people willing to pay up for the metal no matter what the reason. WE may and probably will never know what is really going on but we do not need to. the market will tell us when the bulls are no longer willing to chase prices higher. For now they seem to be eager.<br /><br />the longer silver can stay above $36 the better the odds will be from a technical perspective of moving higher. For whatever reason, we had a lot of selling at this level. It seems to me like the level was acting like $30 did a while back when silver could not quite get through it and stay above it. once it did clear $30 and held that level on a subsequent move lower, it shot up higher. Same thing will probably happen above $36.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-73463060543186224922011-03-21T20:41:15.728-07:002011-03-21T20:41:15.728-07:00I absolutely do not understand why people would im...I absolutely do not understand why people would immediately jump and call someone a shill just that they have a differing opinions, especially when that are backed by some analysis. You can disagree with the analysis but name calling is just dumb.Boscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07264674526688644864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-66388657016071687752011-03-21T20:18:07.906-07:002011-03-21T20:18:07.906-07:00Kid Dynamite = desperate troll. Ignore.Kid Dynamite = desperate troll. Ignore.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09362531731591597011noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-53939602792858197152011-03-21T19:15:01.825-07:002011-03-21T19:15:01.825-07:00@Dig77 - the notices need to be served (by the sh...@Dig77 - the notices need to be served (by the shorts - they are the ones who decide when to deliver) by the end of march. I don't know how many days they actually have to make delivery.<br /><br />sure - if they don't have the silver and need to get it, that could put upward pressure on prices. Victor's point is that if they do have the silver, it makes sense for them to wait until the end to deliver it.<br /><br /> But we're not talking about a lot of silver here - less than 5mm ounces. SLV trades many multiples of that daily. Of course, that requires one to believe that SLV's redemption mechanism works as advertised, which I do believe.<br /><br />good luck, I'm signing off for the night.Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-20209571735533941662011-03-21T19:10:45.464-07:002011-03-21T19:10:45.464-07:00Thanks very much for the reply. Makes sense for su...Thanks very much for the reply. Makes sense for sure. Do the shorts have to make actual delivery by the end of March or is there a grace period after contracts are settled. It would make sense that if you were a short, in this position, that you would prepare ahead of time in the event you have to make delivery. In this case would that not put some upward pressure on prices ?Dig77https://www.blogger.com/profile/17120794220792131294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-49903328205979208712011-03-21T18:57:44.540-07:002011-03-21T18:57:44.540-07:00@Dig77 - Victor The Cleaner has written what I thi...@Dig77 - Victor The Cleaner has written what I think is the best stuff on backwardation:<br /><br />http://victorthecleaner.wordpress.com/2011/02/27/backwardation-in-the-case-of-a-monetary-metal/<br /><br />i also saw him comment today on Turd's blog, simply and brilliantly, that given the very slight spot-march backwardation, it makes perfect sense for shorts to hold the metal as long as possible before delivering it. <br /><br />what's ironic is that, despite this being normal, optimal position management, when the metal all gets delivered at the end of the cycle, the uninformed will be up in arms screaming about a conspiracy all over again... even though the entire point, as was the point of Brian's post, is that it seems impossible for there to be a delivery problem with only 4.5mm ounces left standing.Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-75689674979125109582011-03-21T18:46:12.861-07:002011-03-21T18:46:12.861-07:00Kid Dynamite, thanks for the informative posts and...Kid Dynamite, thanks for the informative posts and please keep active. What do you think if the March contract does move to a premium over the May contract and what are your thoughts on the backwardation we have seen recently in silver ?Dig77https://www.blogger.com/profile/17120794220792131294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71292993707103547512011-03-21T18:34:39.681-07:002011-03-21T18:34:39.681-07:00@kid weeell yur at least hypomanic with slightly a...@kid weeell yur at least hypomanic with slightly altered dellusioned thought processes ... if u want to prove your point u need to get all the arguements everyone has given you and make a giant book of your answers then their overwhelming objections then repeat until u have a clear map (should look like a trees roots if u grasp the concept) <br /><br />all else my issue with you has been voicedIAmPhoenixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05291585988522073060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-87454050464255202002011-03-21T18:30:36.269-07:002011-03-21T18:30:36.269-07:00@brian .. watch the bears video from silvergoldsil...@brian .. watch the bears video from silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com <br /><br />and you may have a better understanding why the chinese are taking their time slowly taking the silver and i believe they themselves also shorting the price until....IAmPhoenixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05291585988522073060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-8860404028830342372011-03-21T18:22:58.219-07:002011-03-21T18:22:58.219-07:00@ IamPhoenix - I try to be everywhere where there ...@ IamPhoenix - I try to be everywhere where there is a forum where intelligent people want to have an intelligent discussion about the topic and have the facts wrong. You can figure out my credentials if you spend 5 minutes on your own. my work speaks for itself.<br /><br />I don't think i've ever encountered an investment area in my entire life where people are as misinformed as they are with silver. It's really quite remarkable.<br /><br />Yes - the COMEX pays me $1BILLION a year - no physical silver, obviously, just those imperialist Fiat dollars - to try to get people to use common sense and think about the data and the facts. And yes, Brian o'flanagan is my alter ego - I'm a masochistic schizophrenic who uses two personalities to argue with people who have absolutely zero interest in truth or logic. Does that sound reasonable? (/.sarcasm)Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-87216055682667438932011-03-21T18:11:56.202-07:002011-03-21T18:11:56.202-07:00dynamite ...... YOU ARE EVERYWHERE IS THIS YOUR JO...dynamite ...... YOU ARE EVERYWHERE IS THIS YOUR JOB? DO YOU WORK FOR A LIVING TELLING PEOPLE THE COMEX WILL NOT DEFAULT???<br /><br />your credentials as educational, professional, etc. greatly appreciatedIAmPhoenixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05291585988522073060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-78245413056215636302011-03-21T17:52:46.960-07:002011-03-21T17:52:46.960-07:00@blister - I think it's pretty simple:
if th...@blister - I think it's pretty simple: <br /><br />if the longs don't get what they expect from the contract specifications, then they won't want to trade those contracts anymore. <br /><br />So yes, it's true that the COMEX doesn't "need" to give you physical silver - in the sense that they are not actually liable for failures to deliver by the shorts beyond the market value, but if they said "sorry guys, no actual silver, here's cash instead" then no one would trade there anymore. So that's certainly not an appealing option for them.Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-44656173528373810962011-03-21T17:16:52.860-07:002011-03-21T17:16:52.860-07:00My dealer, who is not small and hedges his invento...My dealer, who is not small and hedges his inventory in the futures market, insists that crimex does not have to deliver most of the physical if it chooses not to. He didn't have time to explain it, but said something like they can only be forced to delivery a small amount of the actual inventory and can instead pay in SLV certs. If this is true, wouldn't a "default" be a public exposure of the certificate replacement rather than the actual metal default in the technical sense? E.G. crimex can claim they have the metal, but don't want to deplete their inventory to dangerous levels, while the entity that stands for delivery will publicly cry foul, causing a short term spike in prices.<br /><br />All comments welcome.blisterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15134417986456312557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-70073565155613917622011-03-21T16:12:25.141-07:002011-03-21T16:12:25.141-07:00Hey Kid Dynamite, I answer on your blog in the com...Hey Kid Dynamite, I answer on your blog in the comments of your PSLV postDanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05671043146569168617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-10643865488263634492011-03-21T15:14:40.830-07:002011-03-21T15:14:40.830-07:00Kid/Brian or whoever you are, you are about to fin...Kid/Brian or whoever you are, you are about to find out what the truth is in very short order.Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01017550857251040572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-6618861081056265362011-03-21T14:21:17.675-07:002011-03-21T14:21:17.675-07:00Many of you have forgotten that CDE is sending ore...Many of you have forgotten that CDE is sending ore to China for refining. How many other silver miners are doing the same? IMO that this is how China is getting its silver; they are not relying on the after refined market because the lack of blanks for the US Mint already proves that the market is extremely tight.apberusdisvethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00964317155644416727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85688550562550102402011-03-21T13:59:40.304-07:002011-03-21T13:59:40.304-07:00Would it be possible to have a short squeeze witho...Would it be possible to have a short squeeze without a Comex default? Does anyone here really beleive that silver should not be closer to $40 than $36 right now?atleehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10106834393352590523noreply@blogger.com